- 7/18/2025
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00:00to the american league playoff picture where in the al the best team in baseball resides that is
00:05still the detroit tigers by a full game in front of the la dodgers at 59 and 38 drs the tigers
00:13entered the all-star break losers of four in a row and yet maintain that best record in the bigs in
00:20an 11 and a half game lead atop the american league central second best record in the al
00:26the houston astros 56 and 40 also a precarious final week entering the all-star break they dropped
00:33five of six after being 24 and eight since the beginning of june the best team in baseball
00:40at that moment since the start of june but not their finest form entering the break one of the
00:46other hottest teams of the bigs the toronto blue jays who were riding a 10 game win streak into the
00:52final week ahead of the break lost their final two of their final weekend set and yet maintain a two
00:57game lead over the yankees in the al east at 55 and 41 so tigers astros jays are three divisional
01:06leaders the yankees though not all that far behind the hottest team in baseball that's boston 10 straight
01:13wins into the all-star break and now earning a wild card spot at least a potential of it right here right
01:20now the mariners playing pretty good baseball in the final week of that season before the all-star
01:25break as well 51 and 45 now maintaining a game and a half advantage over the rays for that third and
01:31final wild card spot around the al yeah expectations for the american league you take a look at the west
01:37i expect the houston astros to win that division they have a five game lead not insurmountable down the
01:42stretch but i just look at what the mariners have the rangers have and let's just say the angels have
01:47they just seem like the best team to me then you go over to the central it's the detroit tigers they
01:51would have to i don't even know how you would implode losing you know out by 12 games post all-star
01:56break to teams that are probably selling like byron buxton we're hearing that's going left and right
02:00phillies mets whoever he might go so they're probably selling same thing with the kansas city royals
02:05they're not going to do anything but then we flip it over to the american league east it's like oh wow
02:09toronto's in first place but only by two games and only three games over the boston red sox and five and a
02:14games over the tampa bay race so that one seems to be up for grabs and also where are those wild
02:19cards coming from because if you look at the central it looks like it's just going to be the division
02:24winner and no wild cards which opens up the other spots and the team that i'm looking forward to is
02:29having that second half season that's intriguing like it is the seattle mariners like we are going
02:33to watch cal rally try to hit 50 home runs 55 plus home runs in an mvp race but they are talented
02:40enough where they can steal a wild card spot from a yankees from a red sox or a tampa bay race right
02:46but we've seen this too many times before hey second half of the season the logan gilberts the
02:50brian woos they're pretty good but they keep losing three to one on a night-to-night basis that's the
02:55team that has a lot to play for it's the mariners trying to hold off the texas rangers which we picked
02:59a few days ago hey which team are you looking looking forward to in the second half of the season
03:03or maybe with a chance to get a wild card spot at a plus money number to make the playoffs
03:07that was the rangers for me but i take out the central with the tigers i focus on the mariners
03:12but really who is going to win that al east here is it going to be the blue jays because that secures
03:17an automatic spot into the playoffs is it the yankees that are going to be floundering and also
03:21that new look boston red sox team that 10 wins in a row up to the all-star break athletic fun fast and
03:28energetic right now that's what you like to see and they've got some really good pitching as well
03:34garrett crochet in american league cy young contention starting there for the socks the rs
03:40the rangers are that compelling team plus 330 price to earn a postseason spot you bet that i said that
03:47would be my team to watch they are in a game below 500 they beat their rivals in state and in division
03:53the astros in two of three games in the final weekend in drs nobody has allowed fewer runs this year
03:59than the rangers because of how elite their starting staff has been most notably nathan
04:04eovaldi who would have earned an all-star bonus despite not going to the all-star game in the
04:09veteran jacob de grom who looks like he did it 25 now here in his mid-30s again 346 runs given up
04:18this year by texas the fewest around major league baseball but there was a point just about a month
04:24plus ago drs they had only scored more runs than one team in the bigs that was the rockies not as
04:31of late five plus runs scored for texas in 10 of their last 13 games entering the break they are
04:37still three games behind or three and a half behind seattle their own divisional foes for that third and
04:43final wild card spot yeah three and a half to be exact but i do give the rangers a punters chance
04:48with a plus 330 price to earn a playoff spot as the second half resumes yeah we'll see what happens
04:55a lot can be decided here and we're just trying to say okay outside the break who's going to get on
04:59that quick hey who wins three in a row friday saturday sunday to sort of counterpult them but again
05:03changing it up at the end of the month at that trade deadline you'll know who the winners and
05:08the losers are but those are going to be determined by how they play over the next week
05:12we'll continue looking at the playoff picture around the bigs an hour two next
05:18we welcome you to our number two live right here on this friday morning on the early line
05:25on sports grid he is donnie right side i am ben stevens plenty to get to here in this second hour
05:31really a sample of everything our guy keith stewart will join us in just a little bit to look at round
05:36number two fully underway on this cut day friday in northern ireland at the 2025 open championship two
05:44americans at the top of the leaderboard the 2023 winner of the claret jug the lefty brian harman
05:50seven under par for the tournament five under today in round number two and only one shot back
05:56in english man but in american harris english six under par he was four under in his opening round
06:04one of those five guys tied atop the leaderboard drs after thursday he is two under on this cut day
06:11friday one shot back of harman he is six under for the tournament in harris english i believe
06:16two georgia bulldogs i'm not mistaken by the way about five under for harman five under for
06:23mcintyre four under for keegan bradley four under for harry hall today has a couple of these guys
06:28really making some moves where we usually wait till what saturday for a little moving day and get in
06:33position and have some fun before that or post cut deadline here we'll see what happens but this looks
06:38like this golf course can be had maybe something that we're looking forward to when scotty scheffler
06:42tees off the 10 10 eastern and he sees those numbers out there and maybe adjust his golf game
06:48accordingly after shooting three under yesterday he goes another three under today he's right up there
06:53in that top five again it's a really good point drs and one thing that we'll ask keith who has been
06:58paying attention to all the action on this friday and in the opening round thursday what is the weather
07:03looking like today at royal port rush port rush excuse me for the afternoon and evening hours
07:09because right now rather calm rather tepid and the guys are taking advantage how about the scott
07:15bobby mack robert mcintyre five under through 14 he was even par yesterday he is now five under for
07:23the championship overall this friday also important drs because it's the start of the second half post
07:29all-star break of the major league baseball season in 2025 every club on the diamond today all 30
07:37you've got 15 games every club all 30 has played at least 95 of their 162 games in the regular season
07:45you might think it's the midway point it really is not let's go back to the american league playoff
07:51picture just to make one final point drs before we talk those pennant prices in the american league
07:56you see those three divisional leaders the tigers the astros and the jays every one of those three
08:03clubs holds at least a multiple game advantage for the top spot in their division 11 and a half for
08:09detroit five for the astros and donnie for the blue jays it's still two games in front of the yankees
08:16three in front of the red sox but of our six divisions around baseball the blue jays are our only
08:23divisional leader here at the break that leads in the division in the standings and is not the
08:30favorite to win said division the yankees still remain a minus 130 favorite to win the american league
08:36east does that make sense to you yeah it does because of how much money they've had on the
08:41yankees throughout the entirety of the season and you can't change it up too much then people start
08:45double down on the yankees with an unbelievable favorable price and it's only a two game short change
08:50let's just say at the all-star break and also what are the expectations is toronto going to go
08:55another 10 game win streak and blow the yankees red socks and rays out of the water no it looks like
08:59it's pretty even keel at this point which you're still having some of that bias of coming into the
09:03season saying all right well let's look at the rankings themselves we got the yankees we got the
09:08red socks and probably the orioles had a lot of light to start like ah the blue jays are an
09:12afterthought you're still getting some of that sentiment even though they're in first place at the
09:16all-star break but would you be surprised ben by next friday hey yankees on a nice win streak
09:22red socks are up to 15 in a row and the blue jays playing 500 baseball no longer in first place
09:28that's why you're getting that i love that lineup it's a lot of fun but also the expectations are
09:33still getting you know sort of taken out by what we were expecting heading into the season and what
09:38we're getting right now no doubt about it drs and again it might strike you a little bit funny
09:43because you look at a couple of the races in the national league the phil's only a half game lead
09:48in front of the mets the cubbies holding off belwaukee by a game but the brew crew has made that
09:54nl central race fascinating because they have won seven straight have a 25 and 12 record since the
10:00start of june that's the best in all of baseball and yet the cubs are a minus 290 favorite to win the
10:07central the phillies despite only leading by a half game or minus 185 to win the national league
10:13east again interesting stuff american league pennant prices drs about a couple of weeks ago
10:19the yankees might remain the favorites to win the american league east but for the first time
10:23the tiger is having that best record in baseball and the al leapfrog new york for that favorite
10:29to win the al pennant plus 260 on the tigers plus 330 on the yankees plus 390 on the scroes
10:36and then a rather large drop off to the jays at nine to one the ems and the red socks at 11 to one
10:42the rays only a game and a half out of a wild card spot the rangers only three and a half games out
10:48of a wild card spot as well drs when you look at the american league pennant prices how do you evaluate
10:54it it should be exactly the way they are i trust the detroit tigers i trust the new york yankees and
11:00i trust the houston astros that's where you see that shelf from plus 380 on the astros all the way
11:04down to plus 850 on a current first place team here with the toronto blue jays the expectations for
11:10the blue jays are yeah they might be able to win that division but i'm not trusting it same thing
11:13with the seattle mariners we've seen this so many times in the past like hey having a pretty good
11:17season in first place and all of a sudden they're not because the houston astros are a better ball
11:21club than they are the red sox like is this fool's gold that we're getting a 10 game win streak at the
11:26break where you give up rafael devers and somehow you wind up a better baseball team and also that
11:30starting pitching staff can it hold up in the second half of the season the rays are always the rays
11:35they'll impress like who hit the home run who got the big base hit who's actually on the mound who's
11:39opening like just the teams that i trust are the teams in the tigers yankees and astros where i
11:45think they'll make some shrewd moves at the deadline the tigers aren't going to lose their
11:48division so they're certainly going to be a first round by opportunity which means even if they wind
11:53up let's just say in that first round all right well they could still win that you got tarik school
11:57in a short series i just don't look at the blue jays mariners and the red sox the same way i look at
12:01the tigers the yankees and the astros you know drs i think it's really fair right in terms of
12:07trusting in those teams and it's why they have that shorter price kind of in a tier or peg of
12:13their own than everybody else despite the fact again that toronto has a two-game lead for the
12:19american league east we are also going to start looking at the standings not just who's going to
12:24win a division who's going to earn a playoff berth in a wild card spot but the top two again in the
12:30expanded mlb postseason we have opening round buys for the top two seeds those top two division winners
12:37right now both detroit and houston pretty hefty favorites to earn those opening round buys in
12:44the american league minus 550 on the tigers minus 115 on the scroes the yankees plus 160 of course new
12:52york would first have to catch toronto then catch houston and or detroit in the national lead drs the
12:58dodgers are minus 850 to earn that opening round buy currently the cubs have that second best price and
13:05the second best record only a half game behind la even money plus 100 to be the other team to earn
13:12that opening round buy in the nl playoff picture yeah and by the way the nl a lot deeper to me than
13:18the al's we talked about those top three teams and nobody can probably penetrate them yeah take
13:22look at the dodgers the phillies and the mets the cubs the brewers the padres and the giants it's like
13:26hey you know what one of those teams gets hot you have a lot to trust on maybe the team i look at and
13:30say i don't want to probably bet on is the milwaukee brewers just from like a firepower standpoint
13:35right like yeah it's yelich and a bunch of guys and they have a solid bullpen and they have some
13:40good starters but when you look at star power the dodgers have it the phillies have it the mets have
13:43it the cubs have it the padres have it even the giants have it so you see like the the brewers in
13:48the middle of that 13 to 1 price because they do have a legitimate chance to take down the cubs in
13:52that division but overall it's probably not a team that i'm looking forward to going deep in the
13:56playoffs but there is no shelf like even though plus 120 on the dodgers goes back to plus 480 on
14:01the phillies i look at them in the same scope along with the mets cubs padres and giants where
14:07if these teams were to match up in the playoffs i'm not saying like just move this team through like
14:11all of those teams have a legitimate chance to do some damage once they get to the playoffs
14:15that's a fun field in the nl it's a fascinating handicapping point drs because the dodgers are such
14:23a strong favorite that you would think they are well in front of everybody else and maybe they are
14:27but it's a deeper field in the nl despite it being a little bit more up in the air in the american
14:32leagues as we resume post all-star break with a full slate friday to start the second half and the
14:40prop perspective from tv tom vecchio of sports grid you can catch those two guys by the way pro baseball
14:46today sunday morning 10 a.m eastern time as they wrap up the weekend sets our first full weekend
14:52following the all-star break i love to see it back to two hours this week a little wimbledon
14:58action cut into it an hour sprint last week two hours to catch up on sunday it's the only way to
15:03do it as we head off into the second half unofficial second half of the major league baseball season but
15:08a lot to talk about and topics here got to get used to it again ben like monday and not to break
15:13anything down tuesday not really wednesday not really thursday not really so i might be a little bit
15:17rusty today maybe the numbers aren't working out in our process you get those wonky results
15:21tonight for a lot of good pitchers returning back the bullpens are completely healthy all the players
15:26got blasted drunk for four straight days and didn't sleep be interesting to see how these players
15:30participate tonight on a friday huh of course it always is that additional angle of a handicap first
15:37game out of the all-star break is there some rust are they a little sluggish what about the all-stars
15:43the best players on each club who didn't get all that much of a break just two full days following
15:49the festivities and i'm sure the fun times in atlanta georgia as drs just alluded to but drs it's
15:56one final time here right before play resumes today by the way early game day baseball at wrigley
16:02220 p.m eastern time between the hottest team in baseball the red sox winners of 10 in a row
16:08against the first place cubbies in the nl central to look at the big picture right to reset around mlb
16:16and actually what the eventual goal is for everybody winning a world series will it be the
16:23reigning world series champs in the incredibly short favorites to make it two straight the la dodgers
16:29or will it just be somebody else that was the question to all of you and fade the public
16:34at sports grid on twitter who will win the 2025 world series will it be the dodgers or will it be
16:50the field in fact when you have 29 other teams the rs it should not be a surprise that even with how
16:56short the price is on the dodgers to win a world series at plus 220 nearly five dollars in front of
17:05everybody else in major league baseball that the field would be heavily favored in this head-to-head
17:11matchup and it should not be a surprise then that the public and nearly 82 percent of it backing the
17:18field that's the way that i voted in the poll drs how about you yeah it's exactly the way i voted
17:24because it's really hard to win a championship but it's going to give me everybody else other than
17:29the favorite i'm going to take everybody else because included in everybody else the tigers the
17:34yankees the phillies the astros the cubs the mets the blue jays the mariners it just takes one team
17:39to knock off the dodgers and the field you absolutely get that now if we are looking at the
17:44price points here and you see some of the updated numbers the graphic plus 210 depending where you're
17:48shopping at probably between plus 200 plus 300 in that realm for the los angeles dodgers if i look at
17:53the detroit tigers at a seven to one price or so or the yankees at an eight to one price that's
17:58certainly the way that i would like to go so just a simple instance of the public giving us feedback
18:03thinking the same thing wait a second i get everybody else and i just have to leave out the
18:07dodgers yeah because the dodgers are gonna have to win a couple series to win a world series and
18:12they're going to go up against other teams that are certainly worthy of an opponent give me the
18:16field ben absolutely absolutely so drs and again in a match bet the field with 29 other teams even
18:24the rockies haven't been technically eliminated from playoff contention just yet but as you look
18:31around the bigs in the playoff picture if you've got 12 teams in total six from the al six from the nl
18:36earning a postseason spot and what that would look like right here right now before we resume action
18:42post all-star break the other 11 teams i'll take the other 11 for sure the dodgers are i don't know
18:51justified is the right word because of how short the price is but shorter than everybody else drs
18:56yeah by nearly five bucks yeah baseball's a random sport and the postseason in october is very different
19:03even than our projections or what we are seeing here in the regular season and the one thing that kind
19:09of cracks me up is the dodgers were a plus 240 price plus 250 price in the offseason to win a world
19:16series we balked at that number we laughed at that number we gave them all their credit the world
19:22series champs and the largest payroll in the sport that just kept adding on rokey sasaki blake snell just
19:28to name a few and the expected return that we have seen already in the opening half of the year of
19:34shohei otani on the bump and yet come on it's 162 games and then a new season in october in early
19:41november to win a world series and the dodgers have at least in some areas in overall record fallen short
19:49of expectations they might not win 100 games they were minus 440 to win 100 games at least before this
19:56year got underway and yet the rs they have a five and a half game lead to win the no west for a 13th
20:03time in the last 14 years despite having a seven game slide come to a close last saturday in their
20:10final weekend set against the giants their longest losing streak since 2017 the dodgers still have the
20:17best record in the national league and only sit a game back of the detroit tigers for the best mark
20:22in mlb it is why their price to win a world series has somehow gotten shorter before the all-star break
20:30and where it stands right now as we return on this friday yeah because i don't even think we got the
20:35best of the dodgers yet so if they're healthy in the second half of the season they're probably going
20:39to be better than the first half which means they're going to have a better opportunity to win
20:42a world series understand this big series on deck this weekend too milwaukee brewers taking on the los
20:47angeles dodgers but like glass now is on the mound tonight it wouldn't be interesting and see you know
20:51what glass now goes six and two-thirds innings pitched nine strikeouts it comes away with the
20:56victory that's going to bolster your opinion on the dodgers now granted it's only one game now but
21:00what happens if glass now gets blown up again tonight oh no we don't trust the starting pitching staff
21:04you're going to get a lot of those instant reaction returns just off these series right out of the
21:09all-star break and rightfully so because you're starting to gauge these teams as they head into late
21:13august and then always excuse me late july before you get to august and you get that trade deadline
21:18so for me the dodgers do deserve that price point because what are they showing you that they can't
21:22get the job done maybe you think they weren't as overpowering as they should have been they still
21:26have a multi-game lead in the nl west and the expectations are that pitching staff that missed so
21:31much time in the first half it's going to be there in the second half and it's the dodgers endless
21:35prospects trades at the deadline oh we can't afford that south yes the dodgers can so we always say ben
21:41and me myself included april and may don't judge the dodgers right now they're going to be a better
21:46team at the trade deadline than they are right now one thing that i don't know if it necessarily gets
21:53lost but it is a part of the conversation around la they won a world series last year and tyler glass
22:00now was injured their starting ace of the world series was jack flarity yes yoshi yamamoto was there and
22:08pretty solid throughout that postseason run but they didn't have shohei otani on the bump throughout
22:13that playoff run as well you've got otani back we expect at a certain point the additions to the
22:20starting staff this offseason blake snell and roki sasaki to be there as well and now tyler class now
22:27who dealt with injuries did not pitch at all in may and or june making one start before the all-star
22:34break now nearly two wednesdays ago is back and shohei otani hasn't gone seven innings yet but
22:41he's on the bump as well it is almost like the embarrassment of riches for la and if they need
22:47something drs in the next 13 days ahead of the trade deadline a week from thursday they are going
22:53to go out and find it as well again the dodgers should be the favorites but a lot can happen the
22:59remainder of the way and certainly into october we have highlighted this week the other teams to
23:05keep an eye on in the nl the phils have the best starting staff maybe even more so than la we've got
23:12a lot of belief drs and what the astros are doing as of right now as well let's start to break down
23:18this full friday slate the brilliant baseball mind next the second half of the major league baseball
23:26season resumes post all-star break with a full slate friday around mlb the brilliant baseball mind of
23:33donny right side is here to break it all down he told you from the handicapping perspective and the
23:39xfip and woba numbers he's got to shake off the rust and get back to it so do the players as well drs who
23:47had either four days off during the all-star break or those best players the actual all-stars
23:53had about two days off after the festivities in atlanta it starts bright and early come on man
24:01it's a summer friday at wrigley field inside the friendly confines that means day baseball
24:05it's the cubbies and the red sox game number one of the second half minus 134 the price on chicago drs
24:14the over under is eight the cubs are a home favorite but the red sox are the hottest team in baseball
24:22entering the all-star break on a 10 game win streak what will we see here today to start off
24:29all of our action post all-star break yeah by the way i wonder how they get there by the way because
24:35chicago's the home team right like at boston you just get like a plane ticket like hey man went out
24:39to vegas i'll meet you in chicago we're gonna fly all the way back to boston take the team charter out
24:43to chicago sort of like you could buy like an extra 12 to 18 hours i guess of more vacation time if
24:49we're just allowed to meet the team in chicago but that's either here nor there but the question
24:53does come up though ben how off were these guys over the past couple days because there are players
24:59that are like you know what man baseball is my life fantastic i take monday off i stay in the city of
25:03chicago i take some cuts here i get some work out at wrigley field or it's like i'm going to completely
25:08disconnect and i'm going to fly out on sunday night and i'm not coming back to the ball yard until
25:12thursday and i'll be rested and ready but how efficient will i be at this time there are always things that pop
25:18pop and it's unique to major league baseball because you do take what three to four months
25:22of a season just go dark for maybe four or five days then repair back here they're very creatures
25:27of structure and i want to know how that impacts them but if we're looking at the starting pitching
25:30right lucas giolito last 60 days for him ben a 91 exit minus a 190 era which is really nice but you
25:37take a look at that price point it's the chicago cubs as the favorite yes they're a good team but also
25:41you take a look at boston has won 10 games in a row that has to mean something 77 degrees at wrigley
25:47wind blowing in seven miles per hour shouldn't affect it all that much i love the way both of
25:51these lineups actually look but if i'm looking at colin ray i don't think he's as good a pitcher as
25:55lucas giolito is you're coming back already into unknown territory like what am i getting from either
26:00side so i take the plus money here i'll go plus 114 on the boston red sox today saying giolito i expect
26:07a good performance he's rested the bullpen is rested and maybe it's just a coin flip between the lineups
26:11give me the plus money today on a team that's won 10 games in a row yeah why not continue to roll on
26:18the other side momentum always a huge thing in a sport that basically plays each and every day
26:24but when the matchup is there and a little bit of plus money as we're kind of finding our footing once
26:30again from the handicapping perspective do not mind the look at all drs the red sox of course 11 and
26:36one in july winners of 10 straight one of four teams that since the start of june are playing the
26:42best baseball in the bigs one of four teams boston is with at least 25 wins since june 1st the best to
26:50do it the brewers we'll talk about them a little bit later on 25 and 12 the red sox have won 25 games
26:57the astros have won at least 25 games and then one of those divisional mates for the red sox as well
27:03the toronto blue jays 25 and 13 for the jays since june 1st and because of it a two game lead
27:09in the division in front of the new york yankees three in front of the boston red sox by the way the
27:16jays start their second half at home as a favorite in the six against justin verlander and the san
27:22francisco giants chris bassett gets the nod on the other side for toronto eight and a half is that total
27:28what's the play drs today in the six they probably should expect runs on the eight and a half why is
27:33that the past 60 days look at these two pitchers chris bassett's got a 101 x fit minus which is
27:37right about average but look at that era ben at a 5.01 and an x fit number of 4.16 you go down to
27:43justin verlander a 115 x fit minus which is elevated and they take look at a 5.34 era over
27:49the past 60 days and a 4.68 x fit number if you look at bassett he's a right-handed pitcher you know
27:54he's been sensational against right-handed batters for most of the season particularly
27:58in the power categories but he does leak a little bit against lefties anticipated lineup today for
28:03the san francisco giants it's not great but respect to having five lefties as opposed to going with
28:08like two or three which you may see in some lineups which is a positive the toronto lineup past 30 days
28:13have been absolutely on fire against hitting right-handed pitching and verlander has really
28:19struggled over the past 30 days with left-handed batters now here's the issue take a look at luke's
28:23that's a lefty bargers a lefty wagner's a lefty and lo perfido's a lefty five right-handed batters
28:29but sometimes you just look at that and say they don't strike out verlander's not that giant strike
28:33out pitcher that he was once in his career so if i look at both sides and say these pitchers can be
28:38had yes but also taking that with a grain of salt saying do we know the hitters timing will be back
28:43right away because typically coming out of spring training the pitchers are ahead of the hitters because
28:47they just haven't seen that good and that sharp of live pitching you get through that in april may
28:52and then the hitters start to round form once you get the warmer temperatures 72 degrees north of
28:57the border but i gotta tell you if i'm just going straight off numbers ben i'm going over today in
29:00this game i am and let's not forget drs the jays had their own 10 game win streak like their mates
29:06in the socks entering that final week of the uh of action before the all-star break they have still
29:13won 13 of their last 17 toronto has despite dropping the final two games of the weekend set
29:18against the a's ahead of the all-star break what should be a marquee matchup today in atlanta
29:24loses a little bit of luster did the yankees all-stars just hang out in atlanta the last few
29:30days as new york will start its second half against the braves in truest park the rs as i'm seeing it
29:37here the yanks an ever so slight favorite the braves have a starter listed in spencer strider
29:43have the yankees named that starting pitcher today against atlanta i thought i had yeah i thought i
29:48had max freed in there all the way through let me just double check to see what we have on the
29:52updated numbers at a couple of it doesn't yeah because i'm listing max freed on one if they
29:56don't let's just say it is max free and it's eight and a half we're going under like you're talking
29:59about strider full gas freed full gas freed used to pitching in atlanta sound like oh man i haven't
30:05pitched in this ballpark before and i just look at maybe the timing being slightly off but that does
30:09change obviously if we don't get the true starter that we think is going to be freed with the new
30:14york yankees but for right now if we're anticipating that it's going to be the under in this ball game
30:18for me ben yeah it's really interesting drs of course max free the former brave his first year in
30:25pinstripes wanted to be involved in all-star festivities was not out there spencer scrider on
30:32the bump for atlanta the braves 11 games sub 500 at the all-star break if anything is going to
30:38happen it's got to start right away more around the better next we continue all around major league
30:46baseball on this full slate friday and our return to action following the all-star break the best
30:53team in the national league with the short price to win a world series that is the la dodgers and
30:59their ace is now back tyler glass now who had not thrown since the end of april made one start
31:06against the brewers in milwaukee in the final week ahead of the all-star break pretty good drs five
31:12innings of work against the brew crew the dodgers did lose that game though in extra innings in fact
31:17the dodgers lost every game against the brewers in the final week ahead of the all-star break in
31:22milwaukee in fact it is part of the seven game win streak milwaukee rides into the all-star break and now
31:29on the other side of it however the odds maker is expecting that win streak to be snapped tonight
31:36eight straight not when it's minus 188 on the other side and glass now gets the start tonight at the
31:42ravine in los angeles total eight and a half will the dodgers snap the win streak for milwaukee or can
31:50the brew crew get to eight in a row yeah i gotta tell you like looking at some of the statistics and
31:55again just coming off of the break i think you're getting some general like really good price points
31:59on these underdogs you take a look at quinn priester he's actually had a pretty good first half of the
32:04major league baseball season he'll be that start at least anticipate i'm seeing some other outlets
32:07maybe jose quintana thrown in there so buyer beware today it's a lot of mix-ups that might be on the
32:13card and even players coming back into the fold like hey warmed up this morning didn't feel so good
32:17you go with somebody else so just be on the lookout for that but if it is quinn priester going up
32:21against glass now i gotta tell you i like the plus 155 price i got a good baseball team here on the
32:26horizon for milwaukee and that's sometimes all you can ask for but against right into pitching over the
32:30past 30 days dodgers haven't been all there oh tiny's great will smith is great conforto's great
32:35the rest of that lineup a lot to be desired you flip it over to milwaukee and say well what can they
32:39counter with well at least terang churio yellich collins and durbin have high weighted on base
32:44percentages and the team as an entirety have low k rates against right-handed pitching and glass now
32:49i don't know how long he's going to go for so maybe turns it over to the bullpen a little bit
32:53earlier because to be honest the bullpens are fresh coming off the all-star break which usually leads
32:58us to hey you know what if you like to go up against these starting pitchers you better get
33:01them in the first five innings because everybody's all hands on deck once you get to the sixth seventh
33:06eighth and ninth innings but for me again coming out of the break just give me the monkey brewers i'll
33:11take the plus 155 with a good baseball team at a good price
33:14drs that first start for glass now since the end of april two wednesdays ago against the brewers he
33:21did go out there for five innings of work did throw 85 pitches only allowed two base knocks
33:28not an earned run but a run was scored against him again milwaukee rallied to win that game
33:33in extra innings the group grew up one seven straight they're the top wild card team in the
33:38national league they've got an advantage in front of the mets they only throw the cubs by a full game
33:43in the nl central two teams the rs that need to start winning and winning right away to contend
33:49for a wild card spot in the national league the cardinals who have cooled down they're four and
33:54seven in july in the d-backs who had postseason aspirations and have hit the crap out of the
34:00baseball but are five and eight in july in three games sub 500 overall the d-backs will be a team to
34:07watch in the next 13 days leading into that trade deadline on thursday july 31st minus 130 the price
34:16on the d-backs today as they host the redbirds out in the desert total eight and a half what do you
34:21like in the desert duel i mean fault was pretty good in his last start which is something we haven't
34:25said all that much in this major league baseball season in 2025 eight innings pitched and only two
34:29earned runs given up maybe it's a bounce back performance for the batters going up against him
34:34because he's generally not that good palanti on the other hand a 95 x fit minus over the past 60
34:38days which is solid but an era of 4.86 and then x fit dips down to 3.86 he's a very good analytical
34:45pitcher but sometimes the eyes do deceive you we go back to brandon fought his last 60 days a 101 x fit
34:50minus which is right around average but that era 6.66 certainly not something that you want to see there
34:57an exit number 4.10 but again i do lean towards the pitchers over the bats coming out in the second half
35:03i would love to say boy they should both hit each other but to be honest i'll take the under nine
35:08runs in this coming right out of the break full bullpens once again as i can't stress enough and
35:12the starters with extra rest they probably should be a little bit overpowering give me the under eight
35:16and a half in this game between the cards and the diamondbacks quick update from the open
35:21championship is cut day friday continues as we shared brian harman who won the 2023 open
35:27championship at royal liverpool now that solo leader a six under par 65 in his round two he is
35:34eight under for the tournament one of our co-leaders after day number one how tong lee three under on his
35:41opening nine he is seven under and matthew fitzpatrick another birdie poured in he is two under through four
35:49he is six under drs as i shared the rain is coming down like it is pouring right now on this friday
35:56at royal port rush we'll see how long the storms stick around rory just finished two under for the
36:03day three under for the championship he is t11 scotty scheffler just began birdied his first hole he is
36:11four under par after an opening round three under 68 on thursday and if scotty scheffler is going to
36:19be in the top 10 drs even with a guy that he is currently four strokes back of scotty is that short
36:26favorite at plus 190 as your your rhythmics sang band here comes the rain again look he loved it this
36:34is why we like the open championship you never know what you're going to get while you're out on that
36:38off course and if you do have clear skies and not a lot of wind you better take advantage of it and
36:43if you do you will be rewarded it'll be interesting to see if harman at eight under finishes as the
36:49leader after round number two because as you talk about league seven under par three under on the day
36:53he's got his whole back nine left to play it'll be interesting to see because in the united states
36:58right you usually get that rain coming down it's like these guys can go with fins i wonder if it's the
37:02same sort of metrics that they can use there as opposed to we run it up on the green we can't just
37:07judge it but in the united states when it's rain that means you go after pins yeah softer conditions
37:13but could the rain be a sign of bad weather to come that these guys out in the afternoon and evening
37:19hours have to battle with matt fitzpatrick second best place now at six under for the tournament
37:24at six to one brian harman our solo leader at plus 650 but to donnie's point how tong lee only a shot
37:32back on the course as we speak all right back to baseball full slate friday we go to city field
37:39up next the new york bats a half game behind those philadelphia phillies atop the nl east
37:45send sean mania out to the bump mania who did pitch in the final week entering the all-star break in
37:51relief now back as a starter as he worked his way back from injury minus 154 the price on the amazons
37:59drs against the cincinnati reds my reds let's get to 80 wins boys they have 50 here at the all-star
38:07break that total is now seven and a half what do you like tonight in the city party on a friday
38:14yeah if we're just looking again at plus money numbers i think it's pretty juicy here for the
38:19cincinnati reds we don't really know what we're getting out of sean mania the expectations it can be
38:23pretty good i'll get back to that in a moment but the focus here on nick lodolo his last 60 days
38:27pitching ben a 91 exit modest which is very good a comparable era at 3.33 and a very good x fit
38:33number of 3.67 if we look at the last 30 days which again does include a five-day break on the
38:38all-star break but still most of the batters on the mets 25 plus at bats against left-handed
38:43pitching over the past month the only guy with a plus iso and weighted on base percentage that's
38:48brandon nimmel who's a left-handed batter the rest of the guys very underwhelming which brings me
38:52up to my next result where you say all right well we don't know what we're getting out of sean
38:56but the one thing we know about him he is a left-handed pitcher look at the lineup here for
39:01the cincinnati reds over the past month outside of espinal and joe the rest of that lineup all
39:06really high weighted on base percentages against left-handed pitching so if i have lodolo in pretty
39:11good form mania we should have a little bit of guesses yes the mets are at home both teams want
39:15to get out of the break with a good start but i just look at that plus 138 price point say to myself
39:19i think i might have the better hitting lineup against lefties on my side with the reds
39:23and i'm getting plus money i'll take the flip of the coin and give me that plus money today
39:27on the cincinnati reds you know it's a little bit unfair drs for sean mania who made his season debut
39:33in relief against the royals on the final day before the all-star break went three and a third 65 pitches
39:42seven k's but did allow an earned run which was the walk-off winner for kc before the mets hit the
39:50all-star break glad to see him back if you are an amazin's backer to make a run at the national
39:55league east divisional crown to see mania back in that starting staff one of the reasons new york
40:00got off to such a good start this year pitchers may be pitching above what we expected shamania
40:05one of those consistent starters for new york let's go to the team though in the top spot in the national
40:11league east the phils begin at the bank jesus lazardo awesome in his debut first couple of starts for
40:18philadelphia not so great in the middle looking like he's finding his form again the phils drs more
40:25than a two dollar favorite at home against the angels total eight and a half what do you expect
40:30at a lazardo in the phillies to begin post all-star break yeah if you get what we expect at a lazardo
40:36that should be a phillies win but also understand this you know suriano has been very good over the
40:41first half but sort of leaked oil over the past two to three weeks and we'll see if maybe got something
40:45together over the all-star break if you look at the lineup today for the angels at least anticipated
40:50you got netto you got ward you got adele soler rangifo and a hoppy with decent weighted on base
40:55percentages and iso power going up against left-handed pitching if we look at the philadelphia phillies
40:59however they're not a big strikeout team against right-handed pitchers and also you don't have a big
41:03strikeout pitcher in jose soriano and particularly the left-handed batters but here's still the interesting
41:08thing last 118 batters at least if we're looking at iso power number against it's an 099 weighted on base
41:14percentage of a 300 and you look at the phillies again who have been off weren't the hottest team
41:19going into the break at least offensively right i say to myself i see the eight and a half 82 degrees
41:23light wind blowing in from left field usually this is the type of game like you know i'm going to take
41:27a flyer with an over because it's citizens bank park they're not overly dominant pitchers but i think
41:32the batters will be slightly behind i'll go under eight and a half in that game tonight where
41:36hopefully for me as a phillies fan it's a four to one nice victory not a four to one loss and a
41:41frustrating loss because oh the bats can't hit again pitchers above hitters at least coming right
41:47out of the all-star break for me then common theme it's been a little bit of good drs and then a little
41:52bit of very bad for lizardo this year he is eight and five good with a 414 era not so good in his first
42:0111 starts he allowed a total of 16 earned runs then in his next two to finish out may and his first
42:08in june a total of 20 earned in just two starts but a couple of those outings right before the
42:16all-star break in fact his final one against the giants in san francisco seven innings of shutout work
42:22striking out seven and only allowing three base knocks the phillies maintain that half game lead atop
42:29the national league east they are the favorites at minus 185 to win the division speaking of divisions
42:36a divisional duel and an important one to start things off post all-star break it's the astros and
42:42the mariners tonight in seattle luis castillo gets the start for the ms minus 134 is that price in favor
42:50of the mariners at home but houston drs despite a bad week entering the all-star break dropping five
42:57of six still hold a five game advantage over the mariners a critical divisional duel right out of the
43:04break how does it start if i'm reading these statistics correctly here brandon walter the
43:09number one x fit minus pitcher on the card today based over the past 60 days for major league baseball
43:1470 x fit minus an era that is close to four but the x hip is a 2.91 why is that he's a decent
43:20strikeout pitcher but it was last 96 batters ben he's walked one of those it was last 165 batters
43:25he's faced he's walked two of those guys combined so if you're not giving out the free passes you better
43:30start hitting and this isn't a great hitting lineup for the mariners particularly against left-handed
43:34pitching if jp crawford holy rodriguez have struggled now granted kyle riley hits anybody
43:38rosaraini looks great carver looks uh excuse me mitch garver looks great the rest of that lineup
43:43not so much so theme again let's stick to it here plus 110 price on houston i'll go once again with the
43:51underdog in seattle i like it drs a lot of plus money to be had today how about in texas will neither
43:59side really posting plus money at the moment the tigers and reese olsen minus 106 the rangers and
44:06patrick corbin now minus 110 basically a pick-em in this texas tussle detroit trying to stab a four
44:13game slide and finally get to win 60 will they do it tonight yeah i guess look and that's the price
44:19point that we're looking at hey detroit's going to snap out of it uh will they at this point here
44:22the lineup looks good on both sides maybe we'll go with a fade of the pitchers in this game and say
44:27i don't know if i want to take us out on this true coin flip but maybe we get some runs i like
44:31both of the lineups the way they appear against these pitchers eight and a half that total the
44:35rangers offense on the rise tom vecchio next tv tom vecchio of sports grid joins us here as we
44:45resume action in major league baseball on this full slate friday we'll ask some of those big picture
44:50questions before the second half post all-star break fully begins in just about three and a half
44:57hours inside the friendly confines of wrigley field and of course get some prop perspective
45:02plays on this friday slate as well vecchio as always we appreciate the time thanks for being
45:08here to set the weekend stage around mlb of course thanks for having me back baseball is back we have
45:14a lot to get to as you said things get started early with a day game uh we'll take a look around
45:19like a big picture and then we'll get to some nfl ben and i in the second segment i'm ready to roll
45:24all right vecchio home run prop king that is what you are so let's break down the home run leaders
45:31at the break and what the odds expect at the end of 162 of course big dumper our home run derby
45:39champion cal raleigh has the most long balls at the break 38 he has a three home run advantage in front
45:45of aaron judge who has 35 and yet vecchio judge is favored at a minus 140 number to be the home run
45:54leader when all is said and done let's start right there do you agree with the odds that despite
46:00trailing by three dingers aaron judge will have more than big dumper at season's end i think i think
46:06that's the odds i agree with the odds from a perspective of like what the theoretical upside is
46:11especially if you're just simply based on the ballparks right obviously we know that yankee
46:15stadium is a far better hitter's park compared to compared to t-mobile with uh cal raleigh so i
46:21understand that i will say those odds there at least are interesting when it comes to otani i'm just
46:25you know thinking this on the fly at plus 650 if he were to lead the league in home runs
46:31he probably would be in a spot to win nl mvp and his nl mvp odds right now are minus 800
46:37so effectively if otani does lead the league in home runs you are getting essentially an mvp price
46:44at plus 650 rather than minus 800 so i at least find that interesting as of now yeah it's fun it's
46:51gonna be fun to talk about the rest of the way because we're expecting a lot more home runs in
46:54the dog days of summer here and certainly that battle on the al mvp might be the side of who gets
46:59the 60 home runs who gets the 50 and whatnot but let's take a look here at the nl cy young award
47:04market because it's interesting and it feels like it's between just two players at this point
47:08paul skeins of the pittsburgh pirates and zach wheeler of the philadelphia phillies i do agree
47:13right now that the favorite should be at least on my side of it with zach wheeler the reason being is
47:18i expect zach wheeler to pitch all the way through the end of september in high leverage situations
47:23if the pittsburgh pirates are smart for me tom they won't be throwing paul skeins in meaningless
47:30baseball games over the final two weeks but then again it's pittsburgh they're a stupid franchise
47:35how do you see this going down the stretch between skeins going head to head with zach wheeler
47:40yeah i've been talking about uh zach wheeler plus money for quite a while now dating back over a month
47:45going on with craig mish talking about hey like wheeler plus money is a great option right now so
47:50when it's all said and done you know we are looking at wheeler who has more strikeouts compared
47:54to skeins obviously the record is not something that we're going to be talking about the era is just
47:58barely different the x fit the wars essentially tied across the board but if you had a chance to
48:04grab wheeler plus money that's great to have and there is a point that like i do think the pirates
48:08should be scaling back paul skeins when it's all said and done yeah there's a thing that he may want
48:12to go out there and set records for the most strikeouts in the first you know two years of a
48:15career whatever might be but this really comes down to effectiveness overall from the team and i think we
48:21are getting it from wheeler and there's a reason to back him in terms of winning the award at this point
48:26these odds have shifted constantly in the last two weeks even when we have not seen any baseball in
48:33the last few days skeins was a minus money favorite about two weeks ago that straw poll comes out that
48:39says wheeler should win nl cy young for the first time in his career he goes to minus 140 we were debating
48:45this two days ago it was minus 125 on the phillies ace and what minus 105 for skeins now that same price
48:53at minus 110 still do believe you are getting value on wheeler because as the season plays out
48:59post all-star break i believe that price will be stronger and stronger as philadelphia are playing
49:06in actual games that matter all right becky big picture question for you here world series odds the
49:12dodgers have a drastically short price as has been the case all year long shorter now than it was on
49:19opening day they've got the best record in the national league best record in mlb that's the
49:24detroit tigers by a game best price for an al team to win a world series right now in the final few hours
49:32before we resume action on the diamond post all-star break what is the price if i forced you to bet one
49:38that you would do right now around those world series markets uh it would be a team playing in a few
49:44hours and that would be the cubs i if things break favorably for the cubs you can say it's about any
49:50team the cubs the mets whatever it might be if things break favorably for the cubs game them at 12
49:54to 1 where they could i want to say essentially get past one of the mets or the phillies for free
50:00because maybe those teams are on the other side of the bracket and they only have to play one of
50:03them before they have to play the dodgers theoretically in the nlcs so if things break favorably the cubs
50:09are in a great spot they have a great team i expect them to make moves to bolster their team
50:14overall hopefully from a pitching perspective cubs at 12 to 1. how about that though chicago cub
50:20he's taking on boston today the windy city gets major league baseballs unofficial start of the second
50:24half underway at 220 eastern but late night tonight tom we go to t-mobile that's a pitcher's ballpark
50:30out there walter if you haven't heard over the past 60 days as i was explaining to the people tom
50:34a very low xfip minus guy on the mound and mr walter taking on luis castillo the anticipation
50:40of the second half of the pacific northwest what is it for you in this game it starts with the under
50:45you know there's always a lot of talks like oh what are we going to see from these teams are
50:48they going to come out slow are those red socks like a team are they going to carry over their
50:51momentum are the astros going to bounce back after they break it for leaguers so many
50:55brandon walter's a good pitcher like donnie's talking is a sub three xfip on the season now granted
50:59that's in a 40.2 winning sample size but still the pitching environment that we have overall
51:04again if these teams start off slow today i'm not going to be surprised i'd be more interested
51:08in the over tomorrow but give me under seven and a half to start for today big dumper price by the
51:14way cal raleigh our home run leader plus 240 to hit his 39th finger of the season it will be
51:20interesting back you and part of the reason we see aaron judge booked as a favorite not only the
51:25ballpark he plays in in the bronx and the other ones he will play in in the american league east
51:30the mariners have more home games down the stretch than they do road games which of course will
51:36impact raleigh in his chase to be the home run leader this year drs we got to send you on your
51:41way to money line my friend have a great weekend you'll see vecchio on sunday what a week it's been
51:48man what a week we made it through the horizon is there the easy ben's on autopilot already see you
51:54boys after the super bowl
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