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00:00I'm being very explicit in stating that.

00:04And since then, of course, we have seen that the types of coordination,

00:13whether it's formal or informal, that are occurring not just between Russia and China,

00:18but also between Iran and Russia, Iran and China, the DPRK and Russia,

00:23have just underscored the fact that we cannot look at threats only in the Euro-Atlantic,

00:31separate from the Indo-Pacific.

00:33It is all very much connected.

00:36And, of course, Secretary General Ruta has said also that through its support for Russia

00:41and Russia's defense industry in particular,

00:45China has become a decisive enabler of Russia's war in Ukraine.

00:49And some of the numbers are quite stark.

00:51About 70% of the machine tools that the Russians use for weapons manufacturing

00:56come from the People's Republic of China.

00:5990% of electronics that are used in Russia's war machine

01:04come from the People's Republic of China.

01:07Moreover, it was just last week that Secretary Ruta, in his meeting with the Chancellor of Metz,

01:13said that Xi Jinping, before he would attack Taiwan,

01:17he will make a call to Moscow to ask Putin to keep us busy in this part of Europe.

01:23I think that that is probably not an understatement,

01:27particularly because if you think about when Putin traveled to Beijing

01:32for the Winter Olympics in 2022,

01:35it was just prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

01:38And I think, you know, at the eve of the invasion,

01:42where the Russians and the Chinese started this so-called no-limit strategic partnership,

01:48I think it's reasonable to conclude that there was some sort of, if not collusion,

01:55at least information sharing going on.

01:57And then, of course, we heard also very recently, earlier this month,

02:03when the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his EU counterpart, Kaya Kalas,

02:10that Beijing, and he has not officially said that he said this,

02:15but it's been attributed to European Union officials that were in the meeting,

02:19that Beijing cannot accept Russia losing the war in Ukraine,

02:23as this could allow the U.S. to turn its full attention to China.

02:27So, again, I think we've seen over and over again

02:30that the connection between Beijing and Moscow,

02:34this access, if you will,

02:36is, in fact, a clear and present threat to all of us,

02:41not just in Europe and the North Atlantic,

02:45but in the Indo-Pacific as well.

02:47And then let's talk about the fact that we've even seen now in Europe

02:51forces from Asian countries actually engaged in kinetic operations,

02:56the Russian DPRK connection,

02:59the fact that in June of last year,

03:01Putin and Kim Jong-un signed a treaty that included a mutual assistance clause,

03:07the fact that we know now and have known for a while,

03:11obviously we've seen DPRK forces actually fighting our Ukrainian partners in the region,

03:17the fact that it's been reported that 50 percent of all artillery shells

03:23that the Russians are using are coming from North Korea,

03:26not to mention ballistic missiles and other components.

03:29And the flip side of this,

03:31and this is what some of our Indo-Pacific partners are particularly concerned about,

03:35what is North Korea getting in return?

03:39Because, obviously, they're not just doing this out of altruism.

03:42And the concern here is that the Russians are sharing technology,

03:47particularly in terms of ICPM technology and submarine technology

03:52that can then use to threaten the U.S. homeland, perhaps,

03:57and obviously our key treaty partners, South Korea and Japan in the region.

04:02And just last week, again, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was visiting North Korea

04:08and, again, underscored the relationship between the two countries.

04:14And then when we look at the Iranian connection,

04:18we all know that Iran, of course, has supplied Russia with drones

04:24that are rained upon Ukrainian cities night after night.

04:27We know that they've involved in training Russian forces

04:31in how to operate those drones

04:33and apparently have also provided other munitions.

04:35The Russians, in turn, have provided systems such as the S-300,

04:41which I would venture to guess probably doesn't exist anymore

04:45after recent strikes against Iran.

04:47And if they do, there are probably not too many left.

04:51And then, of course, the Chinese-Iranian link as well,

04:55as China is the number one consumer of Iranian oil.

05:00Ninety percent of Iranian crude gets sold to the Chinese.

05:04And, of course, those funds serve as a key resource

05:09in providing the funds necessary,

05:13whether it's for defense modernization

05:14or even what remains of the Iranian nuclear program.

05:19So, again, I think the linkages are very, very clear

05:23that we cannot separate what our adversaries are doing

05:29in this part of the world

05:30with what they're doing in the Pacific

05:32because they are, in fact, working in concert with one another.

05:36And that's why it's, I think, an obvious understatement

05:40to say that we, whether it's the NATO partners,

05:45the IP4 partners and others,

05:47need to work more and more in conjunction with one another

05:51to try to do all we can to enhance deterrence,

05:54not just in the Baltics,

05:56but I would say in the Taiwan Strait as well

05:58and other places such as the South China Sea.

06:01So with that as an introduction,

06:03what I'd like to do now is turn it over

06:05to the panel members for some introductory remarks.

06:09And then what we'll do is later on,

06:12we'll have an opportunity to respond to your questions too.

06:14Your vice-president.

06:15Thank you, Haino, and thank you for the invitation today

06:19to speak with an Indo-Pacific voice and perspective.

06:23Australia has always believed Europe

06:25and the Indo-Pacific theatres are deeply connected.

06:28Australia was NATO's first partner back in 1953.

06:32Additionally, the Indo-Pacific is home

06:34to 60% of the world's population

06:36and 50% of the world's GDP.

06:40The Indian Ocean hosts more than a third

06:42of the world's bulk cargo traffic

06:43and two-thirds of global oil shipments.

06:46And on average, 2,000 ships transport goods

06:49across the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea

06:52to Europe every day and back.

06:55We are no longer simply bounded by geography.

06:58As Haino mentioned, a stark example of this

07:01is the deployment of North Korean forces

07:03to fight in Ukraine,

07:05where North Korean forces are gaining

07:07valuable combat experience,

07:09utilising the Ukraine battlefield

07:10as an operational testbed for their weapons

07:13and gaining access to Russian technology and capability.

07:17And this capability will manifest in the Indo-Pacific.

07:22Today, the Indo-Pacific looms large

07:24as an area of intensifying geopolitical competition.

07:28We note that China has been undertaking

07:30the largest military buildup since World War II

07:32and its expansionist activities

07:35is encroaching the land borders

07:37with India and Bhutan

07:38and the South and East China Seas,

07:41where Japan, Brunei, Malaysia,

07:43the Philippines and Vietnam

07:45all have rival claims.

07:48And a note on the China dream.

07:51China's national strategies

07:52to achieve the great rejuvenation

07:54of the Chinese nation by 2049.

07:57So today, we see Beijing using a multidimensional approach

08:02to achieve its strategic objective,

08:05drawing on all aspects of national power

08:07and leveraging whole-of-nation resources.

08:11This involves multiple actions

08:13along the spectrum of competition,

08:15from influence campaigns,

08:17information operations,

08:19and other forms of political warfare at the low end,

08:21to grey zone tactics, economic leverage,

08:25and coercive statecraft in the middle,

08:27to conventional military threats

08:29and the role of strategic forces at the high end.

08:33We also see Russia and North Korea adopting this approach,

08:37intensifying all-domain competition

08:39against Western allies

08:41along a spectrum of conflict

08:43that begins in the grey zone

08:45and continues seamlessly

08:48to the strategic nuclear domain,

08:50including space and cyberspace.

08:54Furthermore, all three view nuclear weapons

08:56as important shadowcasters

08:58over almost all of their activities,

09:01rather than as a focus for deterrence

09:03and conflict termination exclusively.

09:07So this translates to what we're seeing today,

09:10Beijing's theory of victory

09:11involving the use of non-nuclear tools of escalation

09:14to erode Western resolve

09:16and to provide it

09:18with the conventional operational advantage

09:20in conflict grounded on an assessment

09:22that Washington and its allies are unlikely

09:25to use nuclear weapons outside of all-out war.

09:30So understanding China's strategy offers insights

09:33on the current and future course

09:35of China's military reform and modernisation

09:37in terms of its strength, technology advances,

09:41organisation, and operational concepts,

09:44all of which seek to offer China's leaders

09:47expanded military options

09:49in support of their national goals.

09:52It is an integrated approach

09:54where warfare is firmly nested within statecraft,

09:58where the law of power

10:00is increasingly challenging the power of the law.

10:03Thank you very much for giving us lots of food for thought

10:08and I'm sure lots of ammunitions for follow-up questions.

10:12General Vallimaki.

10:13Thank you, Heino.

10:14Good morning, all.

10:16And thank you for asking me to the panel.

10:20I know I have to say that it took me days

10:24to figure out why on earth AUSA

10:27and you are asking a grumpy old Finn

10:31who doesn't smile on on this panel coming from a remote country only Lars

10:38from Norway is further away until I've really understood we are at an inflection

10:46point the threat is global it is interconnected and furthermore I

10:52realized we're not alone anymore after we joined the Alliance so if we have to

10:59go to war it is with allies and partners at the minimum it will be it will have

11:04global effects even if the engagements are not but they will be interconnected

11:10so we'll need each other and unity to go to overcome whatever is put against us a

11:17few remarks on all the threat Russia and its partners are constantly modifying

11:23and making their means and ways better with a speed that we did not anticipate

11:31and it's because of the war the learning adopting improvising and modifying their

11:36systems and and changes and this is something that we need to share across

11:40continents across time zones so that we understand how the fight is developing

11:46whether it's in the Pacific or it is in in in Europe or in the Middle East

11:52wherever the war is fought that's the place where to look at what what is the

11:58change and and how to change and this needs to be shared but in a couple of

12:07years time probably that you also 22 23 to 25 will be looked at to the past wars those

12:15wars that that the generals are accused of fighting and preparing for so we need to

12:22really look at what is the next step and not to be content of building up

12:27something that exists now so we we need to pace up ourselves and look forward thank

12:35God we get new people and younger generations and not the old guys thinking

12:39about it only so what kind of war are we preparing for what kind of deterrence and

12:48possible what we want and we don't want there's a great article written by Major

12:54General Van Wagenham Colonel Ben Col. David and Benjamin Jensen just in July about

13:00multiple US and NATO war games and simulations demonstrate the alliances and

13:06inability to address multiple anti-access area denial complexes and repel Russia's mass and

13:12momentum before they threaten tactical nuclear escalation this dilemma requires

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