If Israel-Iran ceasefire holds 'both sides could claim victory'

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00:00We're going to talk more about all of this with James Andre now, who joins me on the set.

00:04James, it does still seem like there is a lot of confusion on what exactly is happening in regard

00:08to this ceasefire that was announced by Donald Trump just a few hours ago.

00:12Well, absolutely. The thing is, we don't have the exact parameters of this ceasefire. We don't know

00:15what's been agreed upon exactly. And what we are seeing is, you know, both sides trading blame.

00:21Indeed, Tehran, you know, Tehran and Iran fired a missile into Israel. We've just seen that.

00:26Catherine Norris Trent is right there. But then on the other hand, there's also been a direct hit

00:31onto Tehran this morning that killed nine people. It's not unusual if you follow conflicts such as

00:36this one that, you know, in the last hours before a ceasefire, it's actually implemented. Both sides

00:42tried to, you know, deal the last blow to the adversary. So now the big question mark is what

00:48will happen now? We are seeing, you know, part of the hard line, part of the Israeli government

00:56vowing, you know, retribution for that last attack. We saw Betseller Smotrich just like

01:01a few, you know, maybe an hour ago saying that he wanted to see Tehran shake. We saw Israel Katz

01:07vowing to fire more missiles into Iran. I'd say that right now, you know, it's a very shaky moment.

01:13It's a moment where we will see if both parties actually stop. You know, everybody could stop right

01:18now. And everybody could claim a form of victory, at least safe face, which is obviously always a very

01:24important thing when it comes to the ending, this type of conflict, you know, which is now known as

01:28the war of 12 days. We'll have to see if it does stop at 12 days or if it carries on. But right now,

01:33if everyone just stops, Israel can claim and claims that it's destroyed the two, as Prime Minister

01:41Netanyahu put it, existential threats to Israel, that is the ballistic program and the nuclear program.

01:48The United States will have participated in that operation, but also cut off before being accused

01:56of trying to change the regime. And as for Iran, well, they will say that they hit and struck back

02:01and defended the Iranian people. So everybody can walk away right now and things will be pretty calm.

02:07Of course, there are question marks as to, for example, the whereabouts of the 400 kilograms of

02:11near weapons grade uranium that Iran has produced and that the IAEA says exists.

02:20Another question is in regard to the US and Donald Trump. I mean, what do you think his

02:24real objective is here? Was it just to go in, help Israel and leave? Or as we were speaking about in

02:31the past day or two, does he push for regime change in Iran?

02:34Well, look, it appears that it appeared until yesterday that indeed regime change was on the

02:39cards. Israel has been quite clear about its intentions. That was, you know, one of the

02:44objectives quite clearly. I mean, Benjamin Netanyahu even went as far as to record a message for the

02:50Iranian people saying that the regime was indeed very weak and that it was a great time to basically

02:57topple it. And, you know, we've seen yesterday there was a strike on Evin prison. Evin prison is a big

03:02symbol. It's, you know, the gate was destroyed with, you know, a message, if you will, from the

03:07Israelis to say, right, you know, the opposition is now free to take the government down. Right.

03:13This was yesterday. Today, it appeared what happened in the night is that basically Donald

03:16Trump decided to end this. And the big question mark, obviously, we don't know what happened behind

03:21closed doors. But, you know, there is a real possibility that Donald Trump was in a sense strong

03:27armed by Benjamin Netanyahu into this strike and onto Iran, basically Israel attacked. And if you

03:33remember, the very first place 12 days ago, in the very first place, the Trump administration reacted

03:39with Marco Rubio saying, look, we have nothing to do with this. This was not our attack, etc. And then

03:45obviously, the United States aligned with Israel, which culminated in the fact that they used, you know,

03:50these the mops, these very heavy 30,000 pound bombs to blast the Iranian nuclear sites. But now it

04:00appears that Donald Trump is trying also to keep leadership has decided to make it very public that

04:05he was the one to stop this war. And this is what happened with these, these social media posts this

04:10morning. And just very briefly, James, I mean, given that if the US does now want to step away from all

04:15of this, what would be next for Iran and Israel? Well, Israel will have we'll have to see if Israel

04:20decides to, you know, fire more missiles into Iran. I mean, the ball very much is in Israel's courts,

04:26you can't really imagine that Iran would want to carry this war that they didn't start on. I mean,

04:32they have capacities have been degraded in a very, very large way. When it comes to Israel. Yes,

04:38we're hearing some pretty bellicose rhetoric from some of the hardliners. But will this stop now?

04:44If it does stop now? Well, Israel will walk away with a prize, which is having neutralized this

04:49nuclear threat onto the country, and really degraded over the past few months, all of Iran's

04:54capacities. Hezbollah is now off the map. The Assad regime is off the map. You know, the Houthi for now

05:01are, you know, not attacking at least US ships. And Iran has just taken a very severe hit. You know,

05:08all the military bases in Iran have been hit, the nuclear program is in tatters. So they could stop here

05:13and consider that, yes, the enemy is really reduced when it comes to Iran. It's a more complex

05:18equation. The regime is going to have to try and hang on to power. It's true that this could lead

05:25to a political crisis in the country. And it very probably will. Because indeed, Iran has taken a

05:32military blow. Around 500 people have been killed. This is the figure that was given by the Iranian

05:36government. They say, you know, Iran, they don't want to give an exact figure. And obviously,

05:40that is a pretty high death toll. So question mark is now, where does Iranian society go from here?

05:47You know, program, nuclear programs over. And obviously, the regime seems very weakened at this

05:53stage. James, thank you.

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