00:30Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, June 19, 2025. Colonel Tony Schaefer returns to our cameras and microphones.
00:44Colonel, it's a pleasure. Welcome back. Thank you for taking the time to chat with us.
00:49While the eyes of the world, the media and the public and diplomats and military people like you have been understandably focused on Israel and Iran,
01:02I would like you to help us catch up with what's happening in Ukraine.
01:06Did President Putin ever retaliate for the drone attacks on the four Russian airfields and the two or three civilian targets that hit Russia a couple of weeks ago?
01:20Well, they've had a record number of missile and drone strikes against a number of targets they've not hit before.
01:31But I don't think, Judge, you could point to one event and say this was the one they did to retaliate.
01:37I think it's been a continuation and expansion of their current offensive effort against the Ukraine.
01:45And so it's more about they were already winning.
01:48Instead of going and refocusing their assets on other things to create a big event,
01:57they've just continued to do the study work of wearing down and demilitarizing the Ukrainians,
02:02which I think is much more effective than seeking a specific event and doing a revenge attack.
02:08Is there pressure on President Putin, whether from his right wing or the circle around him or the military or the intelligence community,
02:19to get this over with?
02:23So there is, but the folks who just want it done have been, I think, I don't know if shouted down is the right word.
02:36But, Judge, the Russian pace has been effective.
02:40It's been slow.
02:42It's been methodical.
02:43And I think the argument is, well, why would I change the pace that is Putin from doing it the way I've been doing it
02:50if we're going to achieve victory in the end?
02:52And I think that's the issue at this point.
02:55Putin, like Trump, has people within his own country who are critical of the way he does business,
03:01some of them being close to him.
03:03And I think at this point, both men are faced with dilemmas regarding how do we continue to meet military objectives
03:12without creating a larger global conflict?
03:15So that's why I think both and people, this may get you, I don't want to get you in trouble,
03:20but by comparing Putin to Trump, but in this area, both leaders have real specific dilemmas of how to continue to do things
03:30which are militarily important without increasing the risk of an expansion of the conflict.
03:42So that's what they're both doing in their different ways, obviously.
03:46But for Ukraine, it's all about trying to basically do everything to kind of get to the Dnepr
03:53and get those areas within the current conflict area settled before I think they're going to go for a ceasefire,
04:03because I don't think the Ukrainians could continue to hold out much, much longer.
04:06You and our other military guys who've spent careers in the military have been telling us for a long time,
04:15it's going to be over soon, it's going to be over soon, they can't last much longer.
04:19How much longer can they last?
04:22By they, the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian government.
04:27I think, well, we've always believed that people would act rationally on the Ukrainian side,
04:41which I guess was our error, because they don't act rationally.
04:45They continue to do things to allow their people to die without any hope of winning.
04:51So I think that's the issue that many of us have faced.
04:54With that said, two things are no longer present, which is our funding.
05:00U.S. funding is running out.
05:02It's not going to be renewed.
05:03And the military weapons in the pipeline, that's running out too.
05:06Pete Hakesheth, our friend Pete has said, we're not sending a bunch of material that they asked for,
05:13especially drones and basically counter missile and counter drone drones, which we need.
05:21So with that said, if that stuff stops showing up, you just can't fight.
05:27And the Europeans have kept offering stuff and they've offered to fund stuff, but they can't.
05:33All the nations in Europe owe each other billions of dollars.
05:38So I don't know how they're going to come up with money that they don't have to pay to a country that will not win
05:44and obtain weapons which are not available.
05:46I don't know how it's possible.
05:48So I just I really do believe we're seeing July, August as the latest the Ukrainians continue to hold out.
05:55How about President Zelensky in office?
05:59I mean, is he still pretty much a puppet of the hard right and Banderas animated nationalists?
06:10Is he just going to go away?
06:12I mean, what's going to become of that government?
06:14Can he survive the demise of his own military?
06:18I mean, literally, as a human being, can he live the demise of his own military?
06:24Well, he believes so.
06:24And I think that's what he's trying to do right now is continue to make very brave statements
06:29without any hope of backing it up with what he's going to be able to obtain.
06:34So I think it's all aspirational for Zelensky and judge beyond that.
06:40He's, I think, already invested in his own future.
06:43He could walk away today and be a very rich man and live out his days in comfort,
06:47at least until someone tries to assassinate him.
06:49But I think that's what he's trying to prevent.
06:51He's trying to basically show that he's on the right wing side until the very end.
06:57And then the very end, I think he's going to book out and leave to fly off and resign.
07:03I think that if the military collapses, he's done, which I think it's going to happen.
07:08And I think he'll wind up here in the United States in some form as some sort of a refugee.
07:17Has the United States dialed back the volume of equipment?
07:23I know at some point the legislation that was last passed under the Biden administration,
07:29all of which is subject to the discretion of now President Trump, will come to an end.
07:34And I think we're comfortable in saying that the president is not going to go to Congress to ask for more.
07:39But in the interim, has the United States government, whether it's to defer this to Israel
07:45or because they know that Ukraine is losing,
07:48has the Defense Department dialed back what has been the flow of military equipment to Ukraine?
07:56And intelligence both.
07:59Yes, absolutely.
08:00I think at this point, the guidance, as I understand it,
08:03is to provide the Ukrainians defensive support, not offensive support.
08:07Anything that would give them the ability to strike Russia regarding intelligence
08:12or specific military technology has been limited.
08:17I know they were able to help.
08:18The United States was able to help broker, believe it or not,
08:21the Israelis to give up an older Patriot missile battery from the first Gulf War.
08:29About, you know, it was one of the early model Patriots.
08:32So things like that, which are technically defensive in nature,
08:35I think you're going to continue to see.
08:36Otherwise, a lot of the support for offensive capabilities is going to end.
08:41I think the F-16 support is going to end.
08:44Things like that are just going away.
08:45Is the, what has become of the 20 CIA bases that were built during the first,
08:56maybe you don't want to answer, that were built,
08:58only tell me what you can, of course,
09:00that were built during the first Trump administration.
09:03Are they still 20 of them across Ukraine?
09:05Are they still operative?
09:06The CIA is a bit of a different animal, as we know.
09:14And I think that even with its current leadership,
09:18there's resistance to certain guidance,
09:20and they will drag their feet and justify their bad behavior
09:25by saying they're doing things to help defend the Ukrainians.
09:29I think that drone attack did not sit well with President Trump.
09:35I think they, the administration figure,
09:38CIA was still up to helping them at the time that happened.
09:42So I think CIA has been running its own game.
09:44But again, I think CIA with Radcliffe is being reined in slowly.
09:49So I don't know if those bases still exist.
09:53I'd say about half of them still do, probably.
09:56And I think it's just a matter of time,
09:58especially if Ukraine collapses before they're all shut down.
10:02And they should be shut down.
10:03There's no reason for them to be there.
10:04But what's your take on the drone attacks?
10:07It's obvious CIA, MI6, and perhaps Assad were involved.
10:12But who in the CIA knew?
10:14Did Radcliffe know and not tell Trump?
10:15Did he not tell him intentionally so that Trump would have plausible deniability?
10:19Did Tulsi Gabbard, before Trump said famously or infamously,
10:22I don't care what she says,
10:24did she know about it and not tell him?
10:25How far up the food chain did the knowledge of the CIA's investment of manpower and American dollars in that drone attack go?
10:36So this is one of those things that Mike Flynn and I were trying to warn the president about first term,
10:43is that these people, especially CIA,
10:46are going to do and say things in such a way that they will kind of tell you something is going on,
10:52but not tell you.
10:53And when you're at that level, you get all these code names read to you.
10:58You get these read-on slips.
11:00And, Judge, they can bury things in the detail pretty easy.
11:05And it's one of those things that unless you're paying attention and you have someone kind of doing a deep dive to everything they say,
11:14something could get past you.
11:16I'll bet, we'll know at some point, I'll bet they briefed him on a concept that had been approved by the Biden administration,
11:27not actually talking about it was implemented.
11:30It was already being formulated for execution and the contemplation of the execution was probably also ignored by the staff.
11:43They just didn't want to say it.
11:45So they're going to come back and say,
11:47well, we told you about it on this briefing on this date back six months ago.
11:52That's the game they play.
11:54Did Radcliffe know?
11:56Again, I think he knew, but not like how far along it was.
12:01So that's how they do these things.
12:02Okay.
12:03I don't want to veer into Israel because I want to be able to take advantage of your knowledge of intel and military on Ukraine.
12:13However, when the president said the other day about Tulsi Gabbard, famously in Air Force One,
12:21I don't care what she says, under the law, which you and I both understand,
12:27she and she alone is the principal person to inform him of American intel.
12:36Is he getting intel from some other source?
12:39Let me answer this question in two parts.
12:42First, my friend, John Lehman.
12:47Johnny Lehman, the former secretary of the Navy?
12:50We both know him.
12:52Okay, go ahead.
12:53You know, John, you can ask him this question then, too.
12:56So, John, during a meeting on Able Danger, which we talk about again at some point since Kurt,
13:02our friend Kurt Walden has been stirring that up, rightly so.
13:06John Lehman told me that when he was secretary of the Navy,
13:10they always had other intelligence sources to include some of their own, Navy, and the New York Times and other outlets.
13:21And John said to me, we never trusted what the intelligence community was telling us.
13:27We always believed there were other sources which were equally or better informed.
13:31So, just saying, just saying, not here to be shot at for what he says.
13:38But he said the other cabinet members, other Reagan cabinet members, had a similar point of view.
13:43So, I don't think that's changed.
13:44Should she resign because he publicly said, I don't care what she says?
13:49Well, no, let me hit the second part of this.
13:50So, during the time, my second part is Jim Woolsey.
13:54You know Jim.
13:56So, when Jim was director, I was running an operation completely off the books.
14:01Well, it was kind of, I mean, you know what, it's black operations.
14:03It was run legally, just saying for the audience, we did it legally.
14:08We had determined through this operation when I was chief of Army's clandestine program,
14:13human intelligence program, that the North Koreans in 92, Judge, had already obtained,
14:19created five working nuclear weapons.
14:22If you go back and look at history, the Clinton administration didn't admit until the late 90s
14:29that we had knowledge.
14:32The policy was to not admit or acknowledge what we knew about the North Korean nuclear program.
14:39So, Jim had to lie.
14:43We had, the Army had to lie because it was an Army operation.
14:46We were, we were forced to not say what we knew.
14:51So, when I see, and I said this on the network like the other night, Judge,
14:56I have no problem with Tulsi saying her own opinion or having a point of view which takes a certain stance
15:04because we can't always acknowledge everything we know.
15:08And that's my position on that, on what she said.
15:10Yeah, but this is not her own opinion.
15:14What she was saying was the uniform opinion of the intelligence community.
15:18All right, I get it.
15:19That uniform opinion can be wrong.
15:22Okay, got it, got it, got it.
15:24Back to Ukraine.
15:25We are hearing that China is entering into agreements to make major investments in the Donbass.
15:35Are you hearing that?
15:39Do you know about it?
15:40What does that tell you about the future of the eastern part of Ukraine?
15:45Will the world soon recognize it as part of Russia?
15:49So, I do believe that Russia is going to walk away with what it has,
15:55and maybe a little bit more because they're still on the offensive.
15:58China has its own internal problems right now.
16:00China can do a lot to invest and do things, but I'm not sure Xi is going to last the rest of the year either.
16:07The rate is going because of the People's Liberation Army not being happy with them,
16:12the internal consumer price index being very shaky by the Chinese people.
16:22We'll see.
16:23I think if Russia wins, China is going to come in with them,
16:26but I don't know if China is going to be that strong a partner in the end because of their own internal issues,
16:32which are not anywhere near to being resolved as far as I can tell.
16:36Is there still a front?
16:39Is there still a line or a DMZ between the Russian troops and the Ukrainian troops,
16:46or is there no front anymore?
16:48Can the Russians just go wherever they want?
16:50The Ukrainians have been successful in laying down, essentially, defensive lines, built-up areas,
17:00cities especially, which are slowing down the Russians.
17:03With that said, once they break through one barrier,
17:06they kind of go for a good amount of terrain, 10, 20 kilometers, to hit the next barrier.
17:11Ukrainians have been very good about being defensive and building these things up.
17:15So the answer is, yeah, there's barriers, but once they break through, they can run a little bit,
17:21and then they get to the next barrier.
17:22But the Ukrainians have been successful in keeping those barriers up and slowing them down.
17:27Let me get back to the flow of military equipment.
17:30Has it been slowed down because Trump and his advisors, including our friend who's now the Secretary of Defense,
17:43believe this is a losing venture, or because they want more gear to go to Israel, or both?
17:50I think it's a losing venture.
17:53They were declinating this stuff before the Israeli fight with Iran started.
18:01And I think if they could get away with a judge, they just would leave Ukraine altogether.
18:08You've got Lindsey Graham and the other folks who want us to fight every nation on the planet.
18:15Well, you have Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal.
18:17Talk about an odd couple.
18:20But they are fiercely, along with Ted Cruz, before Tucker Carlson took him to task,
18:27and Tom Cotton, and those guys are exaggerating Trump to send more military equipment to Ukraine.
18:36I was kind of surprised by Ted Cruz coming across so strong on this.
18:39Ted Cruz used to be kind of, I think, more of a Walter Jones, Ron Paul guy in some ways.
18:49But I guess he's changed.
18:51I think it's unwise to continue to invest in Ukraine.
18:57I think the larger issue, Judge, needs to be what President Putin and President Trump are focusing on,
19:04on relationships as we speak.
19:06I think there's a number of meetings still going on between Russia and the United States to reestablish effective diplomacy.
19:14I think that diplomacy will then result in certain military agreements, which I think are necessary.
19:21And again, I fought the Cold War.
19:23We fought it to beat Russia.
19:25I think it's time we understand the Cold War is over,
19:28and there's larger issues we need to work together on relating to global security,
19:33especially nuclear weapons, that go beyond what's going on in Ukraine.
19:37Will the war in Ukraine still be going on by Christmastime?
19:42I hope not.
19:44I hope you and I are having a conversation about...
19:47What does your military background and analytical ability tell you?
19:52Again, if we're the primary funder and provider of weapons,
20:00and things in the pipeline continue to trickle through,
20:04some things are decremented because of other things that we're doing with the Israelis,
20:09they have to stop.
20:11The Russians aren't stopping.
20:12The Ukrainians will not be functionally able to continue to do what they're doing
20:17without our dollars, without our aid.
20:21I have to believe by this time in August,
20:26the 19th, 20th of August, it's going to be done for the Ukrainians.
20:32Tony Schaefer, thank you very much, my dear man.
20:35Much appreciated.
20:37Thank you, sir.
20:37Good to be here.
20:38Thanks for accommodating my schedule.
20:41We'll look forward to trying to meet you again soon.
20:43All the best.
20:45And coming up later today at 11 o'clock this morning,
