Speaking at SPIEF 2025, Karin Kneissl — former Austrian Foreign Minister and Head of the G.O.R.K.I. Center at St. Petersburg University — delivers a pointed critique of the European Union’s energy strategy 🇪🇺❌⚛️.
Kneissl argues that Europe is approaching energy policy through an ideological lens, rather than grounding decisions in physics, chemistry, and practical science. She highlights how self-imposed restrictions and politically motivated decisions have left Europe vulnerable, energy-insecure, and economically weakened, especially in the face of global competition 🔌📉.
With winters looming and costs rising, Kneissl warns that ignoring the science of energy in favor of narrative-driven policy could lead to long-term damage for the continent.
00:00All right, let's cross now live to Karin Nessel, former Austrian foreign minister and the head of the GORKI Center at St. Petersburg University.
00:08It's nice to have you join me right now, Karin.
00:11Now, many past EU energy initiatives have faced backlash, including the attempts to reject nuclear power or ban diesel engines.
00:21Why then is the bloc insisting on this sweeping embargo on Russian oil and gas if the decision is likely to cause outrage?
00:34Because the European Commission and most of its member states, with the exception maybe of Hungary and Slovakia, they consider energy as an ideological topic.
00:46It's not about physics and chemistry. It's not a technical topic what it should be.
00:50So it's all ideology and they are obsessed with a kind of pathological hatred when it comes to Russian commodities.
00:58Now, several EU countries have voiced strong objections.
01:03Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, reportedly even Italy are against the plans.
01:09How sustainable is this policy if it's sidelining the opinions of a number of members?
01:15Yes, you're right in quoting a rising number of member states.
01:25So far, they have managed to get some sort of exemptions.
01:29But what we see is that they are more and more sidelined by the Commission.
01:34And so their voting is not taken into consideration when there is consensus needed what is the case when it comes to foreign policy.
01:44And let us also recall that energy, according to the Lusbon Treaty of 2009, is a topic of national competence.
01:52Every country can decide on its national energy mix.
01:56That's why we have very different energy mix in France, where 80 percent of electricity stems from nuclear power, while Germany went renewable.
02:05And it's actually a breach of treaties by the European Commission when they force member states into a change of their energy mix.
02:16Because so far, the treaty law says every country can organize its own energy mix.
02:23But we have seen the European Commission breaching its contracts, treaties over and over again.
02:30So this is a very unfortunate situation, but not for the first time.
02:34Well, now, considering the reliability of Russian gas supplies over the past decades, one would ask, is it wise for the EU to cut ties so abruptly without fully developed alternatives in place?
02:49Yeah, fully right.
02:54Well, I think the biggest problem is right now, when it comes to gas, that they have to compete with other, sometimes more competitive rivals on the global market.
03:05The oil market was always global, ever since its beginnings in the 1920s, the gas market has turned into a global market over the last 30 years, thanks to liquefied natural gas, thanks to the whole vessel industry.
03:22And here, EU customers have to compete with Chinese, with Indian customers.
03:31And this is a problem for them, because they are not so competitive anymore.
03:35They are not so interesting as clients from a money point of view, volume point of view.
03:41And here, I think, they lose the predictable long-term contracts they used to have.
03:48So it will be more and more difficult for the industry, for households.
03:55And, of course, you can renounce on a lot of energy.
03:58I, myself, lived in a country where we had daily energy interruption in Lebanon.
04:03Electricity supply was not easy.
04:06But Lebanon is not an industrial hub.
04:09Lebanon is not the center of European automotive industry, like Germany.
04:14So with all their ideological seal to get out of Russian commodities, they are simply destroying whatever remains of European industry.
04:25And that whatever remains was mostly petrochemical, it's emigrating to North America, and it's the automotive industry, which has plenty of other problems.
04:35Well, let me ask this obvious question.
04:37Could replacing Russian gas with more expensive LNG from overseas potentially benefit European consumers and industries in any way?
04:48What are they seeing that others are not?
04:51Well, you can replace Russian gas.
04:58But as you correctly stated in your question, it's more expensive.
05:02And you have to compete for each and every contract on the global market.
05:06It's not that the pipeline natural gas is flowing or that you have some sort of trust in a partner and you build a long-term relationship, as used to be, between European customers and Russian sellers.
05:20So you have to run to the global market and get whatever you find.
05:24And that interesting situation we saw already in 2022, if some might remember, like German Chancellor Scholz spent a lot of time traveling.
05:36He was traveling like, you know, like somebody who really is into trade.
05:41He was the chancellor, the prime minister of Germany.
05:43But he spent weeks and weeks going to Mozambique, to Brazil, to different Arab Gulf countries just to get the one or the other LNG vessel.
05:54It's kind of political energy tourism, which requires a lot of time.
05:59And they did not really come back with signed contracts.
06:03What impact do you expect this move will have on European unity, especially if the decisions are being made without complete consensus among all member states?
06:19A growing rift within the European Union.
06:22And in the case of Hungary, we have also seen very harsh measures by the European Commission, namely cutting regular payments, which are part of the Hungarian budget planning.
06:36We speak here of billions for the cohesion fund, for certain programs that they were guaranteed when they joined the European Union.
06:46So they punish them, they get a sort of penalty by cutting off these funds.
06:54This is one thing.
06:55In the case of Austria, it's a net payer.
06:58It doesn't get money to the same extent from Brazil as it pays to Brussels.
07:03We will see.
07:04But in the case of Austria, they made a very ambiguous statement.
07:09Not as clear as Orbán did.
07:12It was much, much more ambiguous when it comes to Russia.
07:14And I think what will be the logical consequence is that households and industry spend tremendous amounts of money to cover their energy needs,
07:30which means they have less money for going on holidays, for education, whatever.
07:36So the entire setup of budget planning is disturbed.
07:41And this will have, of course, a negative impact on countries which are already in a recession.
07:49So higher energy prices usually mean higher inflation.
07:54And the higher inflation, according to economists, usually hits only an overheated economy.
08:00But we have the rather difficult situation right now.
08:05It was also in the 1930s that you have a huge recession in combination with high price levels, what we call stagflation.
08:15And this is a very explosive mix for the economy.
08:20All right, we have to leave you here now.
08:22Thank you so much, Karin Knessel, former Austrian foreign minister and the head of the GORKI Center at the St. Petersburg University.
