In this eye-opening Deep Dive episode, Lt Col Daniel Davis dismantles the myth of Israel’s invincibility, exposing the cracks in its military readiness, strategic depth, and air defense resilience 🛡️📉. While often portrayed as a dominant regional force, Israel is now showing signs of operational strain under Iran’s relentless missile pressure and regional isolation 🌍🔥.
Davis explores how overreliance on U.S. support, internal political divisions, and the limitations of systems like the Iron Dome are leaving Israel more vulnerable than mainstream narratives admit. With mounting threats and multi-front tensions, Israel’s true military position may be far more precarious than assumed.
This episode challenges the assumptions of power — and offers a critical reality check on Middle East dynamics.
00:00Now, Donald Trump will decide on whether the United States will join the Iran-Israel conflict in the next two weeks.
00:07Well, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt has read out a message from Trump
00:11after what she called a lot of speculation about if the U.S. would be directly involved in the conflict.
00:18Now, she said, quoting Trump, that the decision will be made within the next two weeks
00:21as there is still a substantial chance of talks to end the conflict.
00:25Regarding the ongoing situation in Iran, I know there has been a lot of speculation amongst all of you in the media
00:34regarding the President's decision-making and whether or not the United States will be directly involved.
00:40In light of that news, I have a message directly from the President, and I quote,
00:45Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future,
00:52I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.
00:59A senior intelligence source and a Defense Department official cited by CBS said
01:04the U.S. President has approved attack plans on Iran but has not made a final decision
01:09on whether to strike the country and formally join Israel's air campaign.
01:14Now, this report said that Trump has been briefed on both the risks and the benefits of bombing Iran's Fordow nuclear facility,
01:20and he believes that he doesn't have much choice.
01:23Finishing the job means destroying Fordow, he said.
01:26Fordow is the heart of the Iranian nuclear program built deep inside a mountain and protected by strong air defenses.
01:32It houses uranium enriched up to 60 percent, just below the level needed to make a nuclear bomb.
01:37Now, the Guardian on Wednesday claimed that the U.S. military has reservations
01:41regarding the success of using a bunker-busted bomb to eliminate Fordow.
01:45Now, two defense officials were reportedly briefed that only a tactical nuclear weapon could reach the facility.
01:51However, it was reported that Trump is not considering using a tactical new.
01:56However, on Thursday, Fox News senior White House correspondent,
01:59Waqi Henrik, reported that he was told otherwise.
02:03He said top officials told him that none of the options are off the table
02:06and the U.S. military is very confident that bunker-busters could get the job done at Fordow.
02:11And for more than this, our correspondent Susan Tehrani has sent us this report from New York.
02:16Take a look.
02:17As tensions in the Middle East climb, the White House is walking a tightrope between pressure and restraint.
02:24President Donald Trump has seemingly paused any immediate strike against Iran,
02:30saying that he will decide within two weeks whether or not to intervene in the Israel-Iran escalation.
02:38That would be until about July 3rd.
02:41He emphasized diplomacy, notably the upcoming talks in Europe,
02:46while also maintaining that military options are open,
02:51reaffirming that a nuclear-capable Iran is unacceptable.
02:56White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt echoed those comments,
03:00saying that President Trump prefers diplomacy but also insists that Iran must end uranium enrichment.
03:08Any future deals, she stressed, must eliminate enrichment entirely.
03:14So for now, Washington is holding back.
03:18But Trump's demand for unconditional surrender from Tehran signals that this pause may be short-lived.
03:26Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council is expected to hold an emergency meeting on Friday
03:33regarding the Israel-Iran conflict here in New York.
03:37Susan Tehrani reporting from New York for WeOn, World is One.
03:41All right, for more on this, we're now being joined live by Lieutenant Colonel Daniel L. Davis.
03:47He's a military expert and host of Daniel Davis' Deep Dive on YouTube.
03:51Thank you so much for joining us on World Day and again.
03:54Always a pleasure to have you.
03:55And I just want to begin by asking,
03:57what is your assessment of where things stand in West Asia at the moment
04:01and the United States' involvement in this?
04:03Well, it's really anybody's guess.
04:07You know, I mean, Trump said it best himself.
04:09I don't know what I'm going to do.
04:11I don't know that anybody knows.
04:12Because on the one minute, it looked like we were really getting close to an attack.
04:16I had heard from several sources that claimed to have access to some of the senior government officials in Washington.
04:22They thought that there would be an American attack before the end of the weekend.
04:26They thought it was, you know, something close to a sure deal.
04:28And then Trump upended that earlier today by saying, no, how about two more weeks later from now?
04:34So the big question is, though, why this delay?
04:38Is that because he's genuinely going to give diplomacy a chance and wants to give one more shot at it?
04:43Or is it because, which is certainly plausible, that the military moves were not yet ready,
04:49that they needed to move some more folks out, possibly out of the Qatar air base that you mentioned a minute ago?
04:54Some of the troops in Syria have been redeploying and getting out.
04:58But it could be that they're trying to make us less vulnerable before we go into attack.
05:02Or it could be diplomacy.
05:03No one knows for sure which it is.
05:05But all options are on the table, as they say.
05:08Right.
05:09So having said that, we know that as America's closest ally, Britain is almost certain to be affected in more ways than one.
05:16And now if Donald Trump does decide to get involved and overtly this time, what role could the U.K. play coming in the escalation, how it's going forward?
05:26And what role would the U.K. be playing in it?
05:28Well, that's really that's uncertain because there's there's a number of things they could do.
05:34It could air power seems to be the biggest and the most likely case.
05:39That's what happened.
05:40I believe it was in the April of 2024, the first time Iran used missiles and drones to attack into to to Israel in response to the the attack where Israel destroyed the embassy in and Syria.
05:53So it's it could be something like that.
05:56It could also be some naval power.
05:58Definitely could be intelligence capabilities.
06:00So so all kinds of situations and possibilities.
06:03The big question, though, for the U.K. that got asked is what is in their national interest?
06:08And is it is it useful to go into something that and certainly many analysts, I'm definitely one of them, think that this is a no win situation.
06:15Going into Iran now could expand the war, could make more people join into it.
06:22Certainly draw the United States in other because there's plenty of bases that we have in the Middle East.
06:27You can't you can redeploy some folks, but you certainly can't get rid of all of them.
06:30We got bases all over the place and all of them would be at risk.
06:33And of course, if Britain joins in, they would also be at risk.
06:37And it seems pretty likely that Iran would take some British assets under fire if they came in.
06:42And so everybody has to calculate, is it worth going into to try and take out an Iranian nuclear facility, especially the one at Fordow, if it may not even be succeeded.
06:51But in fact, get you killed in the process and get your country into a war.
06:56That's something I think has not been given enough thought to.
07:00Right now, Mr. Davis, I also wanted to ask you, we are seeing somewhat a shift in position.
07:05Netanyahu has been saying that this is also for the Iranian people.
07:08It's an opportunity for them. He said he said this recently that they have pressed them for 46 years.
07:14They've yearned for freedom. Eighty percent of the people would throw these theological thugs out.
07:19Then we also said Putin say that Israeli strikes have actually led to a consolidation of Iranian society around its leadership.
07:27And now we're hearing that Netanyahu is saying that actually regime change was never the goal to begin with.
07:32This is an existential war for us.
07:34And it's the nuclear threat. And what actually happens in Iran is up to the Iranian people.
07:39So how do you assess this back and forth?
07:42Or is it that perhaps Netanyahu has some assessment of the fact that that's not how it's going to work?
07:47Well, I think it's more the practical aspect of because it was earlier today, this very day, when a hospital was hit in Israel.
07:58And he stood before everybody and said that the leader of Iran must die.
08:04He cannot continue to live.
08:05And so that seemed to be pretty much, yeah, we're going for regime change.
08:09And then, of course, as you pointed out, then there was some very mixed messages that came out later on to imply some different things.
08:14And, listen, this comment about, you know, I'm talking to the Iranian people and they may come up with some percentage that they're against the Iranian regime,
08:24most of that is just misinformation and an attempt to create human opinions that people can have both within Israel to bolster that,
08:35if in the United States, within the Western world, and in a vain attempt to try and sway some people in Iran that I don't think anybody's buying it.
08:41There's no doubt that there are some people, a significant number, that do not like the regime and would love to see it go away.
08:48But from some that I've talked to, the idea that they want to basically help Netanyahu kill their way to it is not something that they're very keen on
08:58because even though they don't like that regime, they certainly don't like the Israeli regime that's killing, in their view,
09:03the Palestinian people in large numbers, or now they're attacking Iran.
09:07And so I don't think that's going to work very well for Israel.
09:11Right. So, Prime Minister Netanyahu has time in again and unequivocally said that the civilians will be held accountable for the actions of the government.
09:19And it has also said that they'll keep going on with the offensive for as long as it takes.
09:24Now the question is, what could the timeline be like and for just how long can either side sustain this conflict?
09:30Let's start with Israel.
09:31That's actually the great question, is how long can either one of them maintain this?
09:36And Israel is definitely not in a position to where it can just indefinitely go on,
09:39because, number one, it itself is very much limited on its own industrial capacity,
09:45its ability to create especially these high-tech interceptor missiles,
09:49the offensive missiles that go both from aircraft and from launchers.
09:54They're very limited in that.
09:55So there's already in the Wall Street Journal, yesterday was a report that Israel's already running low of interceptor missiles.
10:01The question is, how is Iran doing?
10:04How many long-range missiles do they have?
10:06I suspect, and from the best sources that I can consult, is that they have probably a significant number.
10:12And I think right now, based on the video evidence, they've been firing a lot of their older stuff first,
10:16because a lot of the warheads will disintegrate as they're coming in,
10:20which, by the way, even they're not being intercepted.
10:22And if Israel is reserving some portion of its best stuff,
10:26then that means they have more punishment that they can mete out.
10:30And then the real question is, when will Iran then spring in their long-range drones,
10:35which they have tens of thousands of, reportedly, and only a handful have been used so far.
10:39So it could be that they're trying to saturate the air with some of these expendable missiles
10:45to get rid of the interceptor missiles, and then when they get low,
10:48they can come in with the next round in multiple waves, which can suck down more.
10:52And if they get to a point to where even, you know, in local areas that the Israeli side runs out,
10:57then they're going to be very vulnerable in an area.
10:59So Israel is not in as strong a position as a lot of people think.
11:03And I think the military inside of Israel has to really take this into account
11:07before they decide just how far can they go.
11:09And then, of course, coming to Iran, and we know that it's hard to say for sure at this point,
11:15but what do you think is the strategy here, like with Israel and now with the U.S.,
11:19just two weeks away from joining in?
11:21Do you think the U.S. is just letting Israel batter Iran now to the point
11:25where it could be a strong-armed into coming back to the negotiating table,
11:28but for a U.S.-brokered piece this time and on U.S.'s terms?
11:32Does that seem to be the strategy at play here?
11:35It certainly could be, and that's a plausible position to have, but it's also a risky one.
11:42Look, if you wanted a negotiated settlement, if the U.S. wanted one,
11:46there was one on the table before all of these explosions happened,
11:50before Israel launched its preemptive war,
11:53because the Iranian side said, yes, we're willing to have a negotiation.
11:58We'll consider nearly anything except the enrichment.
12:02We won't go to zero.
12:03And under international law, there's no one that can tell them they can't do that.
12:07They said that's a sovereign right, but they said we will give on other things.
12:11But then President Trump made that a red line and said,
12:13well, if you don't go to zero, then we're not going to have a deal.
12:16And, of course, under international law, you can't go and attack a country
12:19just because they don't take the policy that you want them to on an area
12:23where there's an international treaty that allows them to have limited reprocessing.
12:27So we'll see if that's going to work.
12:30But then it's going to be a question of, I'm sorry, Iran, for them to succeed,
12:34their big strategy is they just have to not be defeated,
12:37whereas Israel has to have either a regime change
12:40or they have to knock out their nuclear facilities.
12:42If they don't do either of those, then it's a strategic loss for Israel,
12:46whereas Iran has to just hang on.
12:49So the standard for Iran to succeed is lower than the one that Israel has now set for itself.
12:55Mr. Davis, I'm glad you mentioned that because it actually now brings into question
12:59Israel's strategic objectives or whether or not it's been able to achieve it
13:03or whether or not it can achieve it at all.
13:05We were speaking to Professor James A. Russell earlier as well,
13:08who said that you cannot simply bomb Iran's nuclear program out of existence.
13:13And we do know you're absolutely right that there were negotiations on the table.
13:17They were having discussions.
13:18They might have been at an impasse, but Iran did make it clear
13:21that when it comes to the nuclear program, completely dismantling it,
13:24that would be a red line for them.
13:26Then we see Operation Rising Lion being launched.
13:30And if we were to talk about Netanyahu's comments about Iran being very close
13:33to having a nuclear warhead, these are comments we've been hearing
13:36perhaps every year since 1996, you know.
13:39And this really brings into question whether the red line defense model
13:44or the preemptive strikes defense model,
13:46that is something that we're seeing a complete breakdown of in West Asia.
13:50Yeah, and listen, that's a great point you bring up.
13:54I mean, how can we all forget those many times when Netanyahu was at the UN Security Council
14:00General Assembly and he holds up that big picture of a bomb and said,
14:03you know, they're right up into the neck.
14:05They're almost going to get there.
14:06They're weeks away.
14:07And yet the weeks pass, the years pass, and they don't get one.
14:09And then now here again, after launching this and saying that we had to act now,
14:14he still says, well, it could have been a year or even more of,
14:17but he said that's beside the point.
14:19No, that's not beside the point.
14:20That is the point.
14:21You say you don't want them to have a nuclear weapon,
14:23and yet they didn't have one by all accounts.
14:26They didn't have one.
14:27And so now then you have to get to what was really the objective.
14:30And that's why I say the evidence seems more likely that Israel wanted to have a regime change
14:35than they did actually to prevent a nuclear weapons breakout,
14:39which even the U.S. intelligence said was not on the table just as recently as March.
14:45That's very interesting because, of course, if the regime change was the goal,
14:48which it did appear to be for a long time until this latest statement came out,
14:53the next obvious question would have been, of course, what's the plan for the day after?
14:57And from the experts that we've spoken to about this as well,
15:00well, they didn't seem to have an answer for everyone that I asked as well.
15:03They said that, well, that's up to the Iranian people.
15:05And that's pretty much echoed in Netanyahu's recent statement as well.
15:09So that what you're saying does make sense there.
15:12Lefman Colonel Davis, thank you so much for joining us on World DNA.
15:15As you know, it's always a pleasure to have you on with us.
