🌐 China Deploys Spy Ships 👀 | U.S. Signals Pullback 🇺🇸 | Iran-Israel Exchange Intensifies  | Kiev & Israel Face Shortages ⚠️ – Alexander Mercouris | Forbidden News - video Dailymotion

Forbidden News

In a rapidly evolving geopolitical crisis, China has deployed high-tech spy ships, signaling growing surveillance and intelligence coordination in the wake of U.S.-Israeli operations 🌊🛰️. At the same time, the United States suggests it may begin pulling back forces, hinting at internal pressure and fatigue from multiple foreign entanglements 🇺🇸⚖️.  Meanwhile, the Iran-Israel conflict rages on, with strikes exchanged nightly, pushing both nations toward the edge of total war 🇮🇷🇮🇱🔥. Backed by dwindling resources, Kiev and Tel Aviv are now reportedly running low on critical military supplies and munitions, raising serious doubts about the sustainability of their war efforts 🚨📉.  Alexander Mercouris delivers in-depth analysis of how these simultaneous crises reflect a shifting world order — and what it means for the future of global power.  #AlexanderMercouris #ForbiddenNews #ChinaSpyShips #USPullout #IranIsraelWar #MilitaryShortages #KievCrisis #TelAvivUnderFire #GeopoliticalShift #MiddleEastConflict #WarFatigue #WW3Warning #BallisticMissiles #GlobalSurveillance #MilitaryIntelligence #UncensoredNews #USChinaTensions #UkraineConflict #IsraelDefenseCrisis #StayInformed #RealAnalysis

Transcript

00:00:00Good day. Today is Friday 20th June 2025 and yesterday, if you assume that the information

00:00:13provided by the White House is correct, the war between the United States and Iran, which

00:00:20seemed about to start, has apparently allegedly been postponed. To be precise, the White House

00:00:28spokesman said that President Trump was minded to give Iran one last chance to come to a deal

00:00:37and that he would make a decision whether to start the conflict against Iran or not at some

00:00:45point, some undetermined point, over the course of the next two weeks. Now, it's widely assumed

00:00:51by many people that this means that we should not expect a US attack on Iran at any point

00:01:01within the next two weeks. I wish I could share that confidence, but straightforwardly and very

00:01:10simply, I don't. After all, it's only a week since we were hearing all those stories about how the

00:01:18United States and Israel cunningly used the cover of negotiations to prepare their attack on Iran.

00:01:27I've expressed my own deep scepticism about the truth of some of those claims. After all, as I

00:01:33repeatedly point out, reports about the pending unilateral, quotation marks, Israeli attack on Iran

00:01:44was all over the media and seemed to be completely unanchored to the progress or otherwise of the

00:01:53negotiations. But anyway, we've had this narrative that there was a huge degree of duplicity, that there

00:02:01was a major plot to fool the Iranians, to let the Ukrainians, to persuade the Ukrainians to let their

00:02:10guard slip, using the negotiations which were supposed to take place on the 15th of June,

00:02:18five days ago in other words, as a ruse in order to enable to facilitate the Israeli strike on Iran.

00:02:27As I said, I've expressed my own deep scepticism about the truth of that story. But never mind

00:02:33the Americans have run with it. The Israelis have run with it. The Iranians are also running with it as

00:02:42well. They're saying, they're actually saying, despite all those news reports that were circulating

00:02:49across the media about the imminent Israeli strike on Iran, that they were actually fooled.

00:02:56To me, that looks like an alibi to try to explain away the chaos and disorganisation that we saw in Iran

00:03:04on the first day of the attack on Thursday and Friday of last week. But never mind everybody,

00:03:11everybody talks about this clever ruse. So given that everybody's talking about a clever ruse that

00:03:17supposedly took place last week, how can we have any confidence that this announcement that President Trump

00:03:24has decided to postpone the attack on Iran has decided to postpone the attack on Iran for the time being,

00:03:33and perhaps for two weeks, has any reality behind it? Might it not in fact be a ruse? There is an alternative

00:03:45theory which appears to originate in an article written by the American investigative reporter Seymour

00:03:52Hirsch that the attack that the attack is actually going to come this weekend and that what Donald Trump

00:03:58really wants to do is to postpone speculation of an attack until after close of business in the US

00:04:09financial markets late later today. So supposedly the attack will then take place after the markets have closed

00:04:24and by the time the markets reopen on Monday well it will all have been done and any damage in the markets

00:04:34will have been avoided. I don't myself think that that is how the markets will react but never mind it could

00:04:42be that that is the game plan in which case as I said all this talk about postponing the attack for two weeks

00:04:50or deciding whether or not to attack within the next two weeks is or could quite plausibly be

00:05:00just a ruse. Of course if it is then the already tattered credibility of the US government will be damaged even

00:05:10further people will be even more skeptical in believing or trusting anything that it in fact says. There are

00:05:18some reasons and I can just say this the thinking however that the president has indeed made that decision that

00:05:25he's looked at the possibility of an attack on Iran by the United States and has come to realize that this

00:05:35would be a bad idea that it might not play out well for him. Firstly at the narrow political level

00:05:46the opinion polls are showing clear majority opposition within the United States against the

00:05:55United States supporting a strike against Iran or involving itself in the war. As I discussed in a

00:06:04program I did about two days ago the Federalist the intellectual website if you like of the MAGA movement

00:06:13has now published an article which straightforwardly says that the United States should not be involved

00:06:19in the war and making pointed comparisons between the claims that are being made today about Iran's

00:06:27nuclear program with the claims that were being made prior to the attack on Iraq in 2003.

00:06:37So there is as I've discussed in many places a significant political risk and potential political cost

00:06:49catastrophic political cost quite plausibly if the United States were indeed to join the war against Iraq then

00:06:59it has to be said that there is now what looks to be increasing opposition to this attack

00:07:06from America's own allies. The Europeans are today meeting with the Iranian foreign minister Mr. Aragshi in Geneva

00:07:17and they are signaling to the United States that they do not want to see a conflict between the United States

00:07:24and Iran. Emmanuel Macron has been perhaps the most outspoken about this. He's also spoken out against any

00:07:34attempted regime change in Iran. He has made perfectly valid points about the threat of chaos in the Middle East

00:07:44if regime change were to happen and there were to be a disintegration of state authority in Iran, a country of 92 million

00:07:55encompassing a huge territory north of the Persian Gulf and in Central Asia.

00:08:04So Macron has been speaking out against this. Interestingly,

00:08:10Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, has also apparently been telling Donald Trump not to do this.

00:08:20Now, in Starmer's case, I suspect that this reflects the steady weakening

00:08:31of Starmer's own domestic political position. The Labour Party depends very heavily in Britain,

00:08:38increasingly heavily in fact, on the support of Muslim voters.

00:08:42Those voters would be expected to be extremely unhappy were the United States to attack a Muslim country.

00:08:56And that probably would be a major complicating factor politically for Keir Starmer. And if he were to be

00:09:05seen publicly to support what President Trump appears to be or appeared to be on the brink of doing,

00:09:15which is to say attacking Iran, then it is very easy to see how he might face challenges from within

00:09:25his own parliamentary party. And to say it straightforwardly, I don't think he's in a

00:09:30strong political position at the moment to handle challenges of that kind. He also,

00:09:37that's to say he, Keir Starmer, also has the further complication that Lord Hermer,

00:09:45the Attorney General, Britain's senior law officer, is apparently advising that an attack

00:09:54upon Iran at this time would be illegal. He's absolutely right. I have described this already.

00:10:02The IAEA and the American intelligence community have both said that Iran is not currently working to

00:10:13acquire a nuclear weapon. The nuclear facilities in Iran are peaceful. You might have a major question,

00:10:23mark, as by the way I do, about Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, enriching uranium up to a level of 60%.

00:10:31I question whether that was wise and was an intelligent negotiating strategy. I know a lot of

00:10:38people take a different view from me about this. But anyway, regardless of that, enriching uranium up to 60%,

00:10:4650%, but not moving beyond that to acquire a nuclear weapon does not violate, as I understand it.

00:10:57In fact, I've never heard it suggested that it does violate the provisions of the nuclear non-proliferation

00:11:03treaty, of which Iran remains a signatory and of which it has been almost entirely observant.

00:11:12So attacks on nuclear facilities, which are currently peaceful nuclear facilities,

00:11:20would certainly be contrary to international law, to the relevant conventions, which apparently date back to

00:11:27the early 1950s. And beyond that, Iran, prior to the attack which Israel launched on Thursday the 12th and

00:11:38Friday the 13th, was a country at peace. It was not attacking any other country. It had in fact agreed

00:11:49various treaty provisions with several countries. It had recently joined the BRICS. It had developed

00:11:57commercial and trading links with the United States. And it had come to all kinds of ceasefire agreements

00:12:04with Israel, which it appeared to be observing. So from every conceivable point of view, from every

00:12:11perspective of international law, whether you believe in the right of pre-emptive self-defense or not,

00:12:19an attack on Iran, one conducted without the consent or approval of the UN Security Council, would certainly be a

00:12:28violation of international law. And as Vladimir Putin never ceases to point out, it would be an act of aggression.

00:12:38So, Lord Hermer's advice is correct. It is very similar to the advice that the Blair government

00:12:46received on the eve of the 2003 Iraq war. The Blair government disregarded that advice. It went against

00:12:57popular feeling in Britain, which opposed that war. As I said previously, I don't think Keir Starmer is in a

00:13:06position to resist the kind of opposition in Britain that Blair was able to in 2002-2003.

00:13:23And it's important to remember that Blair himself paid a heavy political cost in the end

00:13:32and ceased to be Prime Minister three years after the start of the war, because his credibility and

00:13:40authority in Britain after the start of the war essentially collapsed. So, Keir Starmer also opposing the war.

00:13:51Importantly, over the last couple of hours, a government which has been a consistent supporter of the

00:14:03United States, of Donald Trump specifically, and by the way, perhaps Israel's most fervent friend in Europe,

00:14:14the government of Hungary has now come out and he's starting to speak out against some of the moves

00:14:21that have been contemplated. It's been suggested that the purpose of the of the Israeli attacks on

00:14:29Iran are regime change. The Israelis have been openly talking now about assassinating the supreme leader of

00:14:37Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei. Donald Trump has published threats against doing so.

00:14:47Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, and Peter Siyatul, Hungary's foreign minister,

00:14:53have now come out and made statements opposing such steps, talking strongly about their opposition

00:15:02to any regime change attempt in Iran, saying that that would be a fatal and disastrous mistake with

00:15:12huge uncertain consequences for the Middle East. I suspect that Donald Trump, to say it straightforwardly,

00:15:21pays a lot more attention to what people like Orban and Seattle are saying, as opposed to what

00:15:28Macron and Starmer are saying, and I don't think he has much time for those for the last two. So

00:15:36in Europe, there is opposition. Around the world, there is opposition. There is an article in the

00:15:43Financial Times, which says that the Gulf states, strong allies of the United States, personal friends

00:15:50of Donald Trump. They too would oppose any attempted regime change in Iran, any direct attempts to strike at the

00:16:02supreme leader. They are worried about the effect of the on the stability of their region, and ultimately,

00:16:12of their own states and societies, if the region were to plunge into chaos and into all that war.

00:16:20And of course, China and Russia, as I've discussed in many programs, have also made very clear

00:16:29their strong opposition to regime change as well. And the Russian government yesterday forwarded to the

00:16:36United States, apparently a strong damage warning the United States against seeking regime change in Iran.

00:16:47And I've no doubt that this is a follow up to the warnings that President Putin himself gave when

00:16:56he spoke to Donald Trump two days, two, three days ago. Incidentally, on that topic, President Trump has given the impression

00:17:08that he has had a further telephone conversation that he has had a further telephone conversation with

00:17:14President Putin since that earlier telephone conversation, which I have discussed in a number

00:17:20of programs. The Russians say that this is not so that Trump, when he talked in the talk in a way that

00:17:31has suggested that there might have been another telephone conversation between himself and Putin was

00:17:39speaking metaphorically, rather than literally. That's actually what the Russians have said.

00:17:48Anyway, so there is a strong international opposition to this. But in my experience, that hardly ever

00:17:54is an is enough by itself to deter the United States from any course that it has decided upon.

00:18:03The political reaction within the United States is, of course, another matter. But I suspect that there

00:18:10are also other factors at play. There was an interesting article in the London Times, which spoke about how

00:18:19President Trump's inner circle is trying to back out of a war with Iran. For all the President's hostile rhetoric,

00:18:28his advisers are increasingly wary of threats to American troops. And Steve Wyckoff is in constant talks

00:18:37with Iran. And the article then continues. The President Trump is looking for an exit ramp from

00:18:45U.S. military involvement in Iran, as concern grows amongst his advisers about Iran's ability to strike back

00:18:54at bases in the region and kill American troops. The Times understands. Iran's penetration of Israeli defences

00:19:03to hit Tel Aviv with hypersonic missiles on Wednesday has influenced calculations about the U.S. directly joining the

00:19:11war by targeting Iran's nuclear facilities with the U.S.'s bunker-busting bombs. Missiles used by Iran

00:19:21are among the fastest ever used in warfare at up to five times the speed of sound and can manoeuvre

00:19:29mid-flight, enabling them to evade Israel's arrow defences. And the article then goes on to say that

00:19:39Steve Wyckoff is in near daily phone contact with Abbas Araki, the Iranian foreign minister,

00:19:46who is refusing to join further nuclear talks whilst his country is under attack from Israel. And we go on

00:19:56to read in this article, Araki has raised another stumbling block, telling Wyckoff that Iran wants a third

00:20:04party at the negotiating table and suggesting this could be China. Iran does not trust the nations presenting

00:20:10themselves as interlocutors for talks, the United States, Britain and Germany, because of their hostile language

00:20:18about the regime in Iran. The Iranians claim they have the upper hand in a straight exchange of missiles with Iran,

00:20:25Iran, but fear U.S. involvement. They have warned Wyckoff they have the capability to take out every

00:20:33American base in the region, saying that if they can hit Israel, they can hit Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar with

00:20:39overwhelming force, according to a source close to the U.S. team. This has led Trump to give Wyckoff

00:20:48more time to seek meaningful negotiations on Iran's nuclear capabilities, complicated by Iran's refusal to abandon its civil

00:20:59nuclear program. Well, that's the Times, the London Times. I don't know how good or strong its sources are.

00:21:09I think that worries about possible Iranian attacks on American bases in the Middle East are probably real.

00:21:20There's been pictures which show some American bases, like Ubaid in Qatar, have been essentially abandoned,

00:21:29that the United States has pulled all of its aircraft out of that base.

00:21:36Obviously, because it fears that the Iran might target the base and destroy any American aircraft that are there.

00:21:47There's no word, by the way, as to where those aircraft have gone.

00:21:51And I expect that this is highly classified information, though, of course,

00:22:00course, China and Russia will be keeping track of what is happening and will almost certainly be advising Iran.

00:22:11So Iran probably does know where the aircraft are, because the Chinese and the Russians will be telling it.

00:22:18But we, that is to say, myself and you, my viewers, we, of course, are not provided with that information.

00:22:29It does sometimes seem to me that in the world of intelligence and classified briefings and all of that,

00:22:39one gets almost a sense sometimes that there is one single gigantic intelligence community

00:22:47that for all its divisions is united in one thing, which is to keep the truth from us,

00:22:55even as they all know it between them.

00:23:01But anyway, let's move on.

00:23:02So there is that concern.

00:23:05And apparently there are also concerns about the effectiveness of the bunker-busting bombs.

00:23:14And I suspect that this might be an even more important factor than worries about Iranian missile attacks on bases.

00:23:23If there is an attack on Fordor, and even if the attack on Fordor, as I speculated yesterday,

00:23:31is not the main purpose of the strike, the main purpose of the strike being the elimination of the political leadership of Iran

00:23:42and the attempt to create a political crisis in Iran, leading to regime change in that country.

00:23:54I cannot see how, after all the rhetoric that there has been, the United States can avoid an attack on Fordor.

00:24:06But, you know, let us assume that there is an attack on Fordor, which seems likely.

00:24:12Apparently, there are now increasing doubts by many people that the bunker-busting bombs would be sufficient to destroy the Fordor facility.

00:24:25I've been reading all sorts of articles by all kinds of people.

00:24:30The consensus amongst them is that probably the bombs, if used correctly, would be able to damage and perhaps even destroy Fordor.

00:24:46But since there is uncertainty about the soil and rock composition of the earth in the area,

00:24:58and also about the concrete levels, the level and strength of the concrete used for the facility,

00:25:08nobody seems to be completely sure.

00:25:11And it seems that the president himself, Donald Trump, has noticed this,

00:25:18and understandably, that has him worried,

00:25:21in the sense that if the attack, an attack on Fordor, is made, and it does fail,

00:25:33then that would be a political disaster for him and for the United States.

00:25:42This would be an operation that would have to succeed.

00:25:47There are some reports which say that in order to be sure of success,

00:25:53the United States would have to occupy the Fordor site itself with troops,

00:25:59and, of course, that is something that the United States is most probably unable to do,

00:26:08given that the ideas of sending U.S. troops to invade Iran itself,

00:26:15well, nobody's talking about them.

00:26:18And from what I can understand, that idea is, in effect, completely ruled out.

00:26:23Now, here I have to say something which I find absolutely astonishing and, indeed, horrifying,

00:26:32which is that there has been increasing amount of speculation in the U.S. media

00:26:38that if the United States decides or concludes that its bunker-busting bombs

00:26:44cannot destroy the Fordor facility,

00:26:47then the United States might resort to tactical nuclear weapons

00:26:52to destroy the Fordor facility.

00:26:58Doing such a thing would be an absolutely appalling act.

00:27:05If nuclear weapons are used for the first time since the end of the Second World War,

00:27:13the first time nuclear weapons were used,

00:27:16the only time so far nuclear weapons have been used in war

00:27:19was during the Second World War,

00:27:22in the August 1945 attacks on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

00:27:30If the United States, which carried out those earlier attacks,

00:27:35were to use nuclear weapons in an attack now,

00:27:39as I said, I mean, the consequences just don't bear thinking about,

00:27:47and I am not myself going to start speculating about them.

00:27:52All I will say is that we will live in a completely different geopolitical reality

00:27:59on the following day,

00:28:02and the pace of nuclear proliferation

00:28:08will accelerate unimaginably.

00:28:14That at the very least.

00:28:17There is one perhaps less important,

00:28:21but nonetheless a point that I'm going to make,

00:28:24and I've not seen anybody else make it,

00:28:27and I do think it's one that bears making,

00:28:33which is that, of course,

00:28:35ever since the autumn of 2022,

00:28:38there has been an unending narrative.

00:28:43It gets repeated constantly.

00:28:45It's trotted out time and time again

00:28:49that Vladimir Putin and the Russians

00:28:51in the autumn of 2022

00:28:54as the situation in Kherson region

00:28:57was turning against them,

00:29:01considered, contemplating,

00:29:03contemplated using nuclear weapons.

00:29:07Putin himself has always and repeatedly

00:29:11categorically denied

00:29:13having ever entertained any such thought.

00:29:18But as I said, it is repeated endlessly.

00:29:19The Biden administration said it time and again.

00:29:24They claimed that they contacted the Chinese

00:29:27to discuss the question with the Chinese

00:29:30and to get the Chinese

00:29:32to tell the Russians not to do it.

00:29:35By the way, the Chinese have never confirmed that

00:29:37or discussed it in any way.

00:29:40So what the Chinese actually think about that whole story,

00:29:45well, who knows?

00:29:46But anyway, that narrative, that story,

00:29:51that fable, because I believe it is a fable,

00:29:54has never died.

00:29:55For the record,

00:29:57there may have been some straight comments

00:30:00made by General Surovikin,

00:30:02which might have been caught in a radio intercept.

00:30:06But I personally believe

00:30:08that the real origin of the story

00:30:10was the fact that around that time,

00:30:12the Russians became concerned

00:30:15that Ukraine was contemplating

00:30:19a dirty bomb operation,

00:30:22an operation in which

00:30:23a conventional nuclear bomb

00:30:25was enriched, if you like,

00:30:29with nuclear material

00:30:33and was exploded in some location,

00:30:36creating nuclear contamination.

00:30:38And the Russians said

00:30:40that they were worried about that.

00:30:42And the Russian Defense Minister,

00:30:44Sergei Shoigu,

00:30:45contacted the Americans

00:30:47to express his concerns.

00:30:50I remember how all of this happened

00:30:52in the autumn of 2022.

00:30:54And I seem to remember

00:30:56that the Russian Chief of General Staff,

00:30:59Valery Gerasimov, did the same.

00:31:01He telephoned and discussed it all

00:31:03with General Milley,

00:31:04the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

00:31:07And I think that the Americans

00:31:08put two and two together

00:31:09and made ten

00:31:11and said that the Russians

00:31:13were constructing a cover story

00:31:15for themselves

00:31:16in order to justify their own use

00:31:18of nuclear weapons,

00:31:20which I don't believe

00:31:22was in any respect the case.

00:31:26But anyway,

00:31:27that story has spread.

00:31:29It's been peddled incessantly.

00:31:32People have cited it

00:31:33as evidence of the recklessness,

00:31:36bordering on insanity

00:31:38of the Russian leader,

00:31:40President Putin.

00:31:42And here we have,

00:31:44even as that story

00:31:46about the Russians

00:31:48contemplating the use

00:31:50of nuclear weapons,

00:31:51even as that story,

00:31:53I suspect,

00:31:54has every prospect

00:31:55of being revived

00:31:56at some point.

00:31:58Here we now have,

00:31:59right across the American media,

00:32:02people coolly,

00:32:04calmly,

00:32:05debating the possibility,

00:32:08quite openly,

00:32:09of the United States

00:32:10using nuclear weapons

00:32:12against Iran.

00:32:14and we have reports

00:32:18supposedly going back

00:32:22to sources

00:32:23within the Trump administration

00:32:26saying that that idea

00:32:28has not been ruled out.

00:32:32So,

00:32:33a story about the Russians

00:32:36using nuclear weapons,

00:32:38which has no factual basis,

00:32:40and which has been

00:32:42categorically denied

00:32:43by the Russians

00:32:44many times,

00:32:46that

00:32:46is enough to prove

00:32:48that Vladimir Putin

00:32:49is

00:32:50a crazy man

00:32:53capable

00:32:54of

00:32:55doing

00:32:56monstrous things

00:32:57and starting

00:32:59World War III.

00:33:00an American story

00:33:03about

00:33:03the United States

00:33:05considering

00:33:07the use

00:33:08of nuclear weapons

00:33:09against Iran.

00:33:11A story,

00:33:12by the way,

00:33:12which the US government

00:33:13has not so far

00:33:15denied.

00:33:17Well,

00:33:17that,

00:33:17of course,

00:33:19nobody takes,

00:33:21that doesn't

00:33:22raise any

00:33:22of the same concerns.

00:33:24We can all talk

00:33:25about it

00:33:25and write articles

00:33:27discussing

00:33:28whether or not

00:33:29it would work

00:33:30and whether it would

00:33:31be a good idea,

00:33:33but it doesn't

00:33:34provoke any

00:33:35of the sort of

00:33:36concerns

00:33:36that have been

00:33:39expressed

00:33:39when the Russians

00:33:41are supposed

00:33:42to have thought

00:33:43about it.

00:33:44Well,

00:33:44I mean,

00:33:45there's nothing new here.

00:33:46I mean,

00:33:46the United States

00:33:48has consistently

00:33:50held itself

00:33:52to a completely

00:33:52different standard

00:33:53from everyone else.

00:33:56That,

00:33:56after all,

00:33:57was what that book

00:33:58by Chomsky and Herman,

00:34:00Manufacturing Consent,

00:34:02ultimately was all about.

00:34:04But here we have

00:34:05another

00:34:06perfect example

00:34:08of this

00:34:09in operation.

00:34:12Think about it

00:34:13next time you go

00:34:15and read articles,

00:34:18as you probably will,

00:34:19over the next couple

00:34:20of days

00:34:21speculating

00:34:22about

00:34:23American

00:34:24nuclear strikes

00:34:25on Fordor.

00:34:27Just saying.

00:34:28Anyway,

00:34:29there it is.

00:34:29So,

00:34:30I'm not going to

00:34:31spend more time

00:34:32on this.

00:34:33Dmitry Peskov,

00:34:35Putin's spokesman,

00:34:37by the way,

00:34:38has said that

00:34:39these reports

00:34:40about the Americans

00:34:41using nuclear weapons

00:34:42in Iran

00:34:43are highly speculative,

00:34:46speculative

00:34:46to the point

00:34:47of being

00:34:48just rumours.

00:34:49and the Russians

00:34:51clearly don't

00:34:52expect it to happen

00:34:53and for the record,

00:34:55nor do I.

00:34:56I think that

00:34:57people within

00:34:59the US government

00:35:00and the US military

00:35:02are far too

00:35:03alive to the

00:35:04consequences

00:35:05of doing

00:35:08such a terrible thing,

00:35:09the negative consequences

00:35:11for the United States

00:35:12that I don't think

00:35:14in the end.

00:35:15Whoever

00:35:15is spreading

00:35:18these stories,

00:35:20I don't think

00:35:21anybody

00:35:22in the US government

00:35:23is going to do it.

00:35:25Of course,

00:35:26if the war drags on,

00:35:28if things really

00:35:28do start to go

00:35:29very badly

00:35:30for Israel,

00:35:32then it might

00:35:33be different.

00:35:35But I don't think

00:35:37we're at anything

00:35:38close to that

00:35:40point yet.

00:35:41Just to say.

00:35:42So anyway,

00:35:43I think the president

00:35:44is concerned

00:35:46about that

00:35:47and I think

00:35:48that he is

00:35:49concerned about

00:35:50the possible

00:35:51failure

00:35:51of a strike

00:35:52on Fordor.

00:35:54And,

00:35:54well,

00:35:56there could be

00:35:56other speculations

00:35:57as well.

00:35:58The religious

00:36:00leader

00:36:00of the

00:36:02Shia community,

00:36:03not just in

00:36:03Iraq,

00:36:05but I believe

00:36:06around the world

00:36:07he is the

00:36:07most senior

00:36:08Shia cleric,

00:36:10Ayatollah

00:36:11al-Sistani,

00:36:12who is based

00:36:13in Iraq.

00:36:15He apparently

00:36:16has also

00:36:16made absolutely

00:36:18clear

00:36:18the

00:36:19extremely

00:36:21negative

00:36:21reaction

00:36:22of the

00:36:23Shia

00:36:23community

00:36:24around the

00:36:25world

00:36:26in the event

00:36:27that

00:36:27Ayatollah

00:36:30Khamenei,

00:36:31who is,

00:36:32after all,

00:36:33a Shia

00:36:33cleric,

00:36:34were attacked

00:36:37and killed

00:36:38by the

00:36:39United States.

00:36:41So,

00:36:41I think,

00:36:42perhaps,

00:36:43especially given

00:36:44worries about

00:36:45the safety of

00:36:46Americans in

00:36:47the Middle

00:36:48East,

00:36:48that is also

00:36:49weighing on

00:36:51the administration.

00:36:53And,

00:36:53anyway,

00:36:54there are

00:36:54probably lots

00:36:55of different

00:36:55reasons and

00:36:57concerns that

00:36:58are growing

00:37:00about an

00:37:01American attack

00:37:02on the

00:37:03Middle East.

00:37:04But we

00:37:05can discuss

00:37:06all of

00:37:06this.

00:37:07It's

00:37:08important to

00:37:08say again

00:37:09that the

00:37:10United States

00:37:10has gone

00:37:11very,

00:37:12very far

00:37:13already

00:37:13in

00:37:15signaling

00:37:16that it

00:37:17is

00:37:18interested

00:37:19in an

00:37:20attack

00:37:20or is

00:37:21prepared to

00:37:22conduct

00:37:22an attack.

00:37:23we've had

00:37:24deployments

00:37:25of massive

00:37:26forces.

00:37:28We've had

00:37:28extraordinary

00:37:29rhetoric coming

00:37:30out of the

00:37:30United States.

00:37:32We have had

00:37:33extraordinary

00:37:33rhetoric coming

00:37:34from the pen

00:37:35of the

00:37:35president as

00:37:37he writes

00:37:37extraordinarily

00:37:39unwise and

00:37:40reckless comments

00:37:42on true

00:37:43social.

00:37:44We have

00:37:45even more

00:37:48dangerous

00:37:49rhetoric from

00:37:50the Israeli

00:37:51government which

00:37:52continues to

00:37:53escalate its

00:37:54rhetoric every

00:37:55day against

00:37:56Iran.

00:37:58And,

00:37:58of course,

00:37:59we have the

00:38:00fact,

00:38:01and it is an

00:38:01indisputable

00:38:02fact,

00:38:03of an attack

00:38:04on Iran at

00:38:05a time when

00:38:06the country was

00:38:06at peace and

00:38:08was peacefully

00:38:08negotiating with

00:38:10the United

00:38:11States.

00:38:12about the

00:38:12future of

00:38:13its nuclear

00:38:14programme.

00:38:15So,

00:38:16given those

00:38:17realities,

00:38:19anybody who

00:38:20assumes that

00:38:22these arguments

00:38:23against an

00:38:25attack on

00:38:25Iran,

00:38:26however

00:38:26compelling

00:38:27they might

00:38:28appear,

00:38:29to anybody

00:38:29who retains

00:38:30any sense

00:38:31of objective

00:38:32reality,

00:38:34anybody who

00:38:35assumes that

00:38:35these

00:38:36arguments

00:38:37will

00:38:40ultimately

00:38:41weigh the

00:38:44decision in

00:38:45favour of

00:38:46non-intervention,

00:38:48I think is

00:38:50being complacent

00:38:51and is not

00:38:53taking into

00:38:53account both

00:38:55the actual

00:38:55realities of

00:38:56the conflict,

00:38:57which are

00:38:58raging at

00:39:00the moment,

00:39:01and our

00:39:04experience of

00:39:06what has

00:39:06happened when

00:39:08huge forces

00:39:08like this and

00:39:10rhetoric of

00:39:11this kind and

00:39:13military action

00:39:14all happen in

00:39:16the Middle

00:39:17East.

00:39:18My own

00:39:19instinct is

00:39:21that in spite

00:39:22of everything,

00:39:24the probability

00:39:24is that some

00:39:26kind of an

00:39:27attack on

00:39:28Iran is

00:39:29likely at

00:39:30some point

00:39:31within the

00:39:32next two

00:39:32weeks,

00:39:33maybe within

00:39:33the next

00:39:34few hours

00:39:34or days,

00:39:36though I

00:39:37pray and

00:39:39hope that

00:39:40I am

00:39:41wrong.

00:39:42Now,

00:39:43having said

00:39:45all of

00:39:45this,

00:39:46we are

00:39:46starting to

00:39:47get the

00:39:47sense that

00:39:48the other

00:39:49side,

00:39:50if you like,

00:39:51not just the

00:39:51Iranians,

00:39:52are beginning

00:39:53to take

00:39:53countermeasures.

00:39:54Yesterday I

00:39:55spoke about

00:39:56the conversation

00:39:58between

00:39:59President Putin

00:40:00of Russia

00:40:00and presidency

00:40:02of China

00:40:03and the

00:40:05way in

00:40:05which these

00:40:06two leaders

00:40:07appeared to

00:40:08be coordinating

00:40:10with each

00:40:11other.

00:40:13We now

00:40:14have the

00:40:16usual very

00:40:16long readout

00:40:18from the

00:40:19Chinese side,

00:40:21most of it

00:40:22including a

00:40:23so-called

00:40:23four-point

00:40:24plan that

00:40:25Xi Jinping

00:40:25outlined over

00:40:26the course

00:40:27of this

00:40:27conversation,

00:40:28which, as

00:40:29is often

00:40:29the way

00:40:30with Chinese

00:40:30plans,

00:40:31seem to

00:40:31me more

00:40:32a

00:40:34catalogue

00:40:36of

00:40:36aspirations

00:40:38and

00:40:39prohibitions.

00:40:40Don't attack

00:40:40civilians,

00:40:41for example,

00:40:42which

00:40:42absolutely

00:40:43one would

00:40:44like to

00:40:44see honoured,

00:40:45but it

00:40:46doesn't seem

00:40:46to me

00:40:47to be

00:40:48a well-defined

00:40:49plan to

00:40:50end this

00:40:50conflict.

00:40:51Anyway,

00:40:52most of

00:40:54the Chinese

00:40:55readout is

00:40:55about that,

00:40:56but it

00:40:56does contain

00:40:57these rather

00:40:58important

00:40:59words.

00:41:00Vladimir

00:41:00Putin

00:41:01briefed

00:41:02presidency

00:41:03on Russia's

00:41:04views on

00:41:05the current

00:41:06situation in

00:41:07the Middle

00:41:07East,

00:41:08saying that

00:41:08Israel's

00:41:09attack on

00:41:09Iran's

00:41:10nuclear

00:41:10facilities

00:41:11is extremely

00:41:12dangerous,

00:41:13and that

00:41:13the escalation

00:41:14of the

00:41:14conflict is

00:41:15not in

00:41:16the interest

00:41:17of any

00:41:18party.

00:41:18The

00:41:19Iranian

00:41:20nuclear

00:41:20issue

00:41:21should be

00:41:21resolved

00:41:22through

00:41:22dialogue

00:41:22and

00:41:23negotiation.

00:41:24Both

00:41:24parties to

00:41:25the

00:41:25conflict

00:41:26should

00:41:26ensure

00:41:26the

00:41:27safety

00:41:27of

00:41:28third

00:41:28country

00:41:29nationals.

00:41:30As the

00:41:30situation

00:41:31is still

00:41:31evolving

00:41:32rapidly,

00:41:34Russia is

00:41:38willing to

00:41:38maintain

00:41:39close

00:41:39communication

00:41:40with China

00:41:41and make

00:41:42active

00:41:42efforts to

00:41:43cool down

00:41:44the situation

00:41:44so as to

00:41:46safeguard

00:41:47regional

00:41:48peace and

00:41:49stability.

00:41:51Now that

00:41:51chimes with

00:41:54the Russian

00:41:54readout.

00:41:55There is no

00:41:56word in the

00:41:57Chinese

00:41:57readout of

00:41:58China supporting

00:41:59Russia's

00:42:00efforts to

00:42:02act as a

00:42:02mediator in

00:42:03the conflict,

00:42:05and that

00:42:05could be

00:42:06because,

00:42:07going back

00:42:07to what

00:42:09Arachi is

00:42:09supposed to

00:42:10be saying,

00:42:11that he

00:42:11wants China

00:42:12to be

00:42:13involved as

00:42:13the mediator

00:42:14instead,

00:42:15it could be

00:42:16that the

00:42:16Chinese had

00:42:17received a

00:42:17request to

00:42:18that affair

00:42:19from Iran

00:42:20and were

00:42:23themselves

00:42:24considering it

00:42:25and might

00:42:27be proposing

00:42:29to put

00:42:29themselves

00:42:30forward as

00:42:31mediators

00:42:32instead,

00:42:34possibly.

00:42:35But anyway,

00:42:35in all other

00:42:36respects,

00:42:37this readout,

00:42:39this Chinese

00:42:39readout,

00:42:40corresponds with

00:42:41the Russian

00:42:41readout.

00:42:42the Russians

00:42:43and the

00:42:43Chinese are

00:42:45coordinating

00:42:45and they're

00:42:47starting to

00:42:47take measures

00:42:48and some

00:42:49of these

00:42:50measures are

00:42:50becoming

00:42:51visible.

00:42:52Two Chinese

00:42:54intelligence

00:42:56gathering

00:42:56ships,

00:42:58spy ships,

00:42:59if you like,

00:43:00are now

00:43:01apparently in

00:43:02the area,

00:43:03in the area,

00:43:04and I've

00:43:05seen photographs

00:43:06of one of them,

00:43:07and we're

00:43:07talking about

00:43:07a large

00:43:08and sophisticated

00:43:09looking ship

00:43:11with all

00:43:12sorts of

00:43:13radars and

00:43:14things of that

00:43:14kind.

00:43:15They are in

00:43:16the area.

00:43:17Apparently,

00:43:18these ships

00:43:19have the

00:43:20ability to

00:43:21keep track

00:43:22of the

00:43:22movement of

00:43:23aircraft

00:43:24and perhaps

00:43:26some

00:43:27missiles.

00:43:30And,

00:43:30well,

00:43:31if you think

00:43:32that the

00:43:33Chinese aren't

00:43:34sharing at

00:43:35least some

00:43:36of this

00:43:36intelligence

00:43:37that they're

00:43:38obtaining

00:43:39from these

00:43:40ships and

00:43:41from the

00:43:41many other

00:43:42intelligence

00:43:43gathering

00:43:44systems that

00:43:45they have

00:43:46at their

00:43:46disposal,

00:43:47if you think

00:43:47that they're

00:43:48not sharing

00:43:48at least some

00:43:49of this

00:43:49information

00:43:50with Iran,

00:43:50which is

00:43:51after all

00:43:51a BRICS

00:43:52state,

00:43:53then I have

00:43:54a bridge to

00:43:55sell you.

00:43:55I am sure

00:43:56that the

00:43:56Chinese are

00:43:57doing that

00:43:58very thing.

00:43:59Now,

00:44:00according to

00:44:01Alistair

00:44:02Crook,

00:44:03I believe

00:44:04it is

00:44:04Alistair

00:44:05Crook,

00:44:05or it

00:44:06could be

00:44:07Larry Johnson

00:44:09at Sonar

00:44:1021.

00:44:11The Russians

00:44:12have also

00:44:13sent a

00:44:14senior

00:44:15military

00:44:15official

00:44:16to

00:44:19Iran.

00:44:21It is,

00:44:22in fact,

00:44:22it is,

00:44:24in fact,

00:44:24Larry Johnson,

00:44:25a senior

00:44:25Russian

00:44:25defense

00:44:26official,

00:44:28arrived in

00:44:28Tehran

00:44:29earlier this

00:44:30week and

00:44:30met with

00:44:31Pezashian

00:44:32and his

00:44:33Iranian

00:44:33military

00:44:34counterparts.

00:44:35We are not

00:44:36told who

00:44:36this person

00:44:37was or

00:44:38what he

00:44:39was doing

00:44:39there or

00:44:40what proposals,

00:44:42if any,

00:44:42he had to

00:44:43make.

00:44:44But presumably

00:44:45the Russians

00:44:46are also

00:44:48involved in

00:44:50some way

00:44:50in trying to

00:44:53perhaps assess

00:44:54the situation

00:44:55on the ground

00:44:56in Iran,

00:44:57get a sense

00:44:58of what

00:44:59the Iranian

00:45:00leadership is

00:45:01up to and

00:45:02how strong

00:45:02their position

00:45:03is and

00:45:04how firm

00:45:04their position

00:45:05is.

00:45:07And perhaps

00:45:07this military

00:45:08official was

00:45:09also there

00:45:10to report

00:45:11back to

00:45:11Moscow

00:45:12what might

00:45:14be needed

00:45:15for Iran

00:45:17to stabilise

00:45:19the situation

00:45:20and reduce

00:45:23the risk

00:45:23of Israeli

00:45:26air attacks

00:45:27to itself.

00:45:28So the

00:45:29Chinese

00:45:29are making

00:45:31a visible

00:45:31presence.

00:45:32We don't

00:45:32need to

00:45:33speculate

00:45:33about

00:45:34mysterious

00:45:35flights

00:45:36from China

00:45:37and what

00:45:37they might

00:45:38be about.

00:45:39The presence

00:45:39of these

00:45:40two

00:45:40Chinese

00:45:42ships,

00:45:42PLA 815A

00:45:44and PLA

00:45:45855,

00:45:48those look

00:45:48to me,

00:45:49by the way,

00:45:49to be

00:45:49American

00:45:50designations

00:45:53for these

00:45:53two ships

00:45:54rather than

00:45:55Chinese

00:45:55ones.

00:45:56Anyway,

00:45:57the presence

00:45:57of these

00:45:58two ships

00:45:58is indisputable.

00:46:03I don't

00:46:04know whether

00:46:05there is the

00:46:06same certainty

00:46:07about the

00:46:09visit of

00:46:11the Russian

00:46:12military

00:46:13official,

00:46:13but I would

00:46:14be extremely

00:46:15surprised if

00:46:16things like

00:46:17that were not

00:46:17happening.

00:46:18and it

00:46:20does look

00:46:20as if the

00:46:21Chinese

00:46:21and the

00:46:22Russians

00:46:22in taking

00:46:25all of

00:46:25these steps

00:46:26are now

00:46:27working

00:46:28together.

00:46:29And I

00:46:30would guess

00:46:32that both

00:46:35behind the

00:46:35scenes and

00:46:37perhaps before

00:46:38long publicly

00:46:39they could

00:46:40start taking

00:46:41joint diplomatic

00:46:42initiatives to

00:46:44bring the

00:46:45fighting to

00:46:46a stop

00:46:47and of

00:46:48course they

00:46:49could also

00:46:49be making

00:46:50privately

00:46:51giving

00:46:52privately

00:46:53various

00:46:54warnings to

00:46:55the Israelis

00:46:56and to the

00:46:57Americans that

00:46:58unless the

00:46:58fighting does

00:46:59stop China

00:47:01and Russia

00:47:02will start to

00:47:03take action

00:47:05to support

00:47:07Iran and

00:47:09in order to

00:47:09bring the

00:47:10fighting to

00:47:11a stop.

00:47:12Now here I

00:47:13would like to

00:47:14make one point

00:47:15absolutely clear.

00:47:16I have had

00:47:17an email

00:47:20from somebody

00:47:20who has

00:47:21speculated

00:47:22about Russia

00:47:23and China

00:47:23either

00:47:24deploying

00:47:25China and

00:47:26or Russia

00:47:27either

00:47:28deploying

00:47:29troops to

00:47:30Iran with

00:47:31nuclear weapons

00:47:32or resisting

00:47:33Iran with

00:47:35its nuclear

00:47:35weapons program.

00:47:37I can say

00:47:38absolutely

00:47:39categorically that

00:47:40that isn't

00:47:40going to

00:47:41happen.

00:47:42Russia does

00:47:42not want to

00:47:43see Iran

00:47:44acquire

00:47:45nuclear weapons.

00:47:46They've made

00:47:46that perfectly

00:47:47clear.

00:47:48There are

00:47:48compelling

00:47:49reasons why

00:47:50Russia would

00:47:51not want to

00:47:52see Iran

00:47:53acquire

00:47:54nuclear weapons.

00:47:55I've discussed

00:47:56them in

00:47:57many programs.

00:48:00Russian and

00:48:00Chinese military

00:48:02assistance,

00:48:03if that's what

00:48:04it comes to,

00:48:05to Iran,

00:48:06will fall

00:48:07well short

00:48:08of that

00:48:10possibility.

00:48:11Now,

00:48:12going back

00:48:12to Larry

00:48:13Johnson and

00:48:14his blog,

00:48:15and by the

00:48:15way,

00:48:15I should

00:48:15say,

00:48:16anybody who

00:48:16wants to

00:48:17get a sense

00:48:18of a lot

00:48:19of what's

00:48:20going on

00:48:20in this

00:48:21conflict

00:48:22should definitely

00:48:24go to Larry

00:48:24Johnson's

00:48:25blog,

00:48:26Sonar 21.

00:48:29Anyway,

00:48:29he has also

00:48:31provided some

00:48:32rather interesting

00:48:34further information,

00:48:36which apparently

00:48:37originates with

00:48:38Alistair Crook,

00:48:39who of course

00:48:40has his

00:48:40sources within

00:48:41Iran.

00:48:42And I'll

00:48:43just read

00:48:44the relevant

00:48:45words from

00:48:46Larry Johnson's

00:48:49latest article.

00:48:51Vladimir Putin

00:48:52made some

00:48:53news on

00:48:53Wednesday

00:48:54while speaking

00:48:55to a group

00:48:55of foreign

00:48:55officials in

00:48:57Moscow,

00:48:58this is the

00:48:59news agencies,

00:49:00when he

00:49:01explained that

00:49:01Russia had

00:49:02offered to

00:49:02sign a

00:49:03defence pact

00:49:04with Iran,

00:49:06but Iran

00:49:07declined to

00:49:08do so.

00:49:09There is no

00:49:09question about

00:49:10this.

00:49:11It is there

00:49:11in the

00:49:13Russian readout.

00:49:14It is in

00:49:14conformity with

00:49:15what I

00:49:16myself had

00:49:17been told

00:49:17some time

00:49:19before when

00:49:20I was in

00:49:21St.

00:49:21Petersburg.

00:49:22I discussed

00:49:23it in a

00:49:25live stream

00:49:25we did on

00:49:27the Duran

00:49:27with Brian

00:49:28Baletic.

00:49:29Over the

00:49:29course of

00:49:29that live

00:49:30stream,

00:49:30I mentioned

00:49:31that I had

00:49:32been told

00:49:33while I was

00:49:33in Russia

00:49:34that the

00:49:34Russians had

00:49:35found Iran

00:49:36a difficult

00:49:37country to

00:49:38help.

00:49:39That's my

00:49:40words by the

00:49:40way, not

00:49:41the words of

00:49:43the Russian

00:49:43interlocutor.

00:49:45I was not

00:49:46told that

00:49:47Iran had

00:49:48declined to

00:49:49agree to

00:49:51a defence

00:49:51pact as

00:49:53part of

00:49:53the recent

00:49:54partnership

00:49:55treaty.

00:49:56I want to

00:49:57make that

00:49:58absolutely

00:49:58clear.

00:49:59But it is

00:50:00consistent with

00:50:01what I was

00:50:02told generally

00:50:03about Iran.

00:50:05Anyway, then

00:50:05Larry Johnson

00:50:06goes on to

00:50:07say this,

00:50:07according to

00:50:08Alistair Crook,

00:50:09and as I

00:50:10said, I

00:50:10know no

00:50:11one in

00:50:11the West

00:50:12better

00:50:13informed

00:50:14about Iran

00:50:16and about

00:50:17the thinking

00:50:18and discussions

00:50:19that take

00:50:19place within

00:50:21the Iranian

00:50:21government

00:50:22than

00:50:23Alistair

00:50:24Crook.

00:50:24If you

00:50:25read articles

00:50:26in Reuters

00:50:27or in the

00:50:28Daily

00:50:29Telegraph,

00:50:29which can

00:50:31be attributed

00:50:32to Iranian

00:50:33officials,

00:50:35and those

00:50:35articles do

00:50:36appear from

00:50:36time to

00:50:37time,

00:50:38I would

00:50:38strongly

00:50:38advise you

00:50:39to ignore

00:50:40them.

00:50:41They're

00:50:41almost

00:50:41certainly

00:50:42misdirection.

00:50:43I do

00:50:44not believe

00:50:44that Iranian

00:50:45officials

00:50:46brief

00:50:46Reuters

00:50:47or the

00:50:48Daily

00:50:48Telegraph,

00:50:49but I

00:50:50have no

00:50:50doubt at

00:50:51all that

00:50:51they do

00:50:52have

00:50:53genuine

00:50:54and sincere

00:50:55conversations

00:50:56with Alistair

00:50:57Crook,

00:50:58just to say,

00:50:59who is

00:51:00somebody

00:51:00whom the

00:51:01Iranians

00:51:01know well

00:51:02and whom

00:51:02they trust.

00:51:03According to

00:51:04Alistair Crook,

00:51:05President

00:51:05Pezizkian still

00:51:07held out

00:51:07hopes for

00:51:09improved

00:51:10relations with

00:51:11the West

00:51:11and believed

00:51:13that signing

00:51:14such an

00:51:14agreement,

00:51:15in other words

00:51:15a defence

00:51:16pact with

00:51:17Russia,

00:51:18would antagonise

00:51:19Washington.

00:51:21He now

00:51:21realises he

00:51:22was foolishly

00:51:24naive.

00:51:25that

00:51:28basically

00:51:30puts the

00:51:32decision

00:51:33not to

00:51:34go ahead

00:51:34with the

00:51:35security

00:51:36pact,

00:51:37the defence

00:51:37pact,

00:51:38that Putin

00:51:39was talking

00:51:40about,

00:51:41the blame

00:51:41for it,

00:51:41if you

00:51:42will,

00:51:43on Pezizkian.

00:51:45I'm afraid

00:51:46I completely

00:51:46believe that.

00:51:48I have no

00:51:49doubt that

00:51:49is true.

00:51:51Pezizkian,

00:51:52when he was

00:51:53elected

00:51:53president,

00:51:54seemed to

00:51:55me to

00:51:55have an

00:51:56extraordinary

00:51:56belief,

00:51:58one which,

00:51:59however,

00:51:59it must be

00:52:00said,

00:52:00continues to

00:52:01be shared

00:52:02by many,

00:52:04many people

00:52:04in Iran,

00:52:06that if

00:52:06Iran made

00:52:07earnest

00:52:08attempts to

00:52:09try to

00:52:09persuade the

00:52:11United States

00:52:12and Israel

00:52:13of its

00:52:14peaceful

00:52:15intentions,

00:52:16then relations

00:52:18between Iran

00:52:19and the

00:52:20United States

00:52:20could be

00:52:22normalised,

00:52:22and

00:52:24furthermore,

00:52:27a belief

00:52:29that better

00:52:31relations

00:52:32with the

00:52:34United States

00:52:35was far

00:52:38more important

00:52:39for Iran

00:52:40than development

00:52:42of relations

00:52:43with its

00:52:45BRICS neighbours.

00:52:46I've discussed

00:52:47this in many

00:52:48places.

00:52:49I think

00:52:50that Pezizkian's

00:52:51views on

00:52:52this strongly

00:52:53reflect a

00:52:55strong current

00:52:55of feeling

00:52:56amongst a

00:52:59section of

00:52:59Iranian society

00:53:00which still

00:53:02hankers for

00:53:04good relations

00:53:05between Iran

00:53:06and the

00:53:07West.

00:53:07the former

00:53:10president

00:53:11Ebrahim

00:53:11Raisi

00:53:13had no

00:53:14such

00:53:14illusions

00:53:14and appears

00:53:16to have

00:53:16decided

00:53:17and made

00:53:18the political

00:53:18decision

00:53:19that Iran

00:53:21should seek

00:53:22a closer

00:53:23engagement

00:53:23instead

00:53:24with the

00:53:25Eurasian

00:53:26powers.

00:53:27His

00:53:28death,

00:53:30supposedly

00:53:31in an

00:53:31accident,

00:53:32though I'm

00:53:33having

00:53:33significant

00:53:34doubts

00:53:34about this

00:53:35now,

00:53:37led

00:53:37eventually

00:53:38to the

00:53:39arrival

00:53:39of

00:53:39Pezizkian.

00:53:41I get

00:53:41the sense

00:53:42that Pezizkian

00:53:43in his

00:53:43own way

00:53:44is a

00:53:44sincere

00:53:45man,

00:53:46but I

00:53:46think he

00:53:46is politically

00:53:47far out

00:53:48of his

00:53:48depth.

00:53:49I think

00:53:49he has

00:53:50failed

00:53:50entirely

00:53:51to gauge

00:53:53the

00:53:54realities

00:53:54of

00:53:56American

00:53:58and Israeli

00:53:59attitudes

00:54:00to Iran

00:54:01and I

00:54:02think that

00:54:03has led

00:54:03him into

00:54:03a huge

00:54:04error.

00:54:05And where

00:54:06a defence

00:54:06pact with

00:54:08Russia was

00:54:08there for

00:54:09the taking,

00:54:10apparently

00:54:11he chose

00:54:13not to

00:54:14take it

00:54:14because he

00:54:15thought that

00:54:16would upset

00:54:17the United

00:54:17States.

00:54:19Well,

00:54:20there it

00:54:20is.

00:54:21He

00:54:21apparently

00:54:21now realises

00:54:22that he

00:54:23was foolishly

00:54:24naive.

00:54:26I suppose

00:54:26one should

00:54:27feel

00:54:29if

00:54:31you're

00:54:31Iranian

00:54:31grateful

00:54:32for that,

00:54:33though I

00:54:33suspect some

00:54:34Iranians

00:54:35might feel

00:54:35that it

00:54:36would have

00:54:36been better

00:54:36if he

00:54:37had not

00:54:38been

00:54:38naive in

00:54:40that way

00:54:40in the

00:54:42first place.

00:54:44Larry Johnson

00:54:45then goes on

00:54:45to say

00:54:46that

00:54:46Putin made

00:54:49it clear

00:54:49that Russia

00:54:50was prepared

00:54:51to help

00:54:51Iran defend

00:54:52itself by

00:54:53providing

00:54:53air defence

00:54:54systems.

00:54:55I think

00:54:56that is

00:54:56true.

00:54:57I think

00:54:57that perhaps

00:54:59rather

00:55:01slightly

00:55:02overstates

00:55:03Putin's

00:55:05exact

00:55:06words.

00:55:07But I

00:55:08think the

00:55:08meaning

00:55:08is clear

00:55:10enough and

00:55:12it is in

00:55:12accord with

00:55:12what Larry

00:55:13Johnson

00:55:13says.

00:55:15And then

00:55:15Larry Johnson

00:55:15says this

00:55:16and I

00:55:17have to

00:55:17say I

00:55:18accept this

00:55:18too.

00:55:19I mistakenly

00:55:21believe that

00:55:22Russia provided

00:55:23some S-400

00:55:24systems to

00:55:26Iran last

00:55:27October but

00:55:28Putin said

00:55:29that that

00:55:29was not

00:55:30the case.

00:55:31I thought

00:55:31the same.

00:55:32There were

00:55:32lots of

00:55:32reports of

00:55:33flights of

00:55:34Russian aircraft

00:55:36to Iran and

00:55:37there were

00:55:37lots of

00:55:38rumours at

00:55:38the time

00:55:39that the

00:55:40Russians had

00:55:40supplied Iran

00:55:42with an

00:55:42S-400

00:55:43system.

00:55:45It turns

00:55:45out that

00:55:46this was

00:55:46not the

00:55:47case and

00:55:48I thought

00:55:49at the

00:55:49time that

00:55:49it probably

00:55:50was.

00:55:50Larry Johnson

00:55:51thought at

00:55:52the time

00:55:52that it

00:55:53probably

00:55:53was.

00:55:54I think

00:55:55he says

00:55:56that he

00:55:57was wrong

00:55:57and I

00:55:58must say

00:55:59the same.

00:56:00Again,

00:56:01I suspect

00:56:02that if

00:56:03the Iranians

00:56:03at that

00:56:04time had

00:56:05asked the

00:56:06Russians

00:56:06for such

00:56:07a system,

00:56:09there's a

00:56:09chance,

00:56:10despite the

00:56:11fact that

00:56:11the Russians

00:56:12are engaged

00:56:13in conflict

00:56:14with Ukraine,

00:56:16that the

00:56:16Russians might

00:56:17have provided

00:56:17it.

00:56:18But it

00:56:19seems that

00:56:19they never

00:56:19did.

00:56:21And as

00:56:23Larry Johnson

00:56:23goes on to

00:56:24say,

00:56:25so far,

00:56:26according to

00:56:27Putin,

00:56:28Iran has

00:56:28made no

00:56:29request for

00:56:30additional

00:56:30assistance.

00:56:32So I

00:56:33wonder how

00:56:33long that

00:56:33will continue

00:56:34for, by

00:56:36the way,

00:56:36but that

00:56:37perhaps now

00:56:38brings me

00:56:38to the

00:56:40actual state

00:56:41of the

00:56:42war.

00:56:43Now, my

00:56:43comments

00:56:44yesterday

00:56:44provoked

00:56:46some strong

00:56:46reactions

00:56:47from people

00:56:47on both

00:56:48sides.

00:56:50I maintain

00:56:51them.

00:56:52I think

00:56:53that we're

00:56:53now in

00:56:54what might

00:56:55be described

00:56:55as a

00:56:56somewhat

00:56:56desultory

00:56:57stalemate.

00:56:58Israel

00:56:59continues to

00:57:00conduct

00:57:00raids

00:57:01against

00:57:02Iran.

00:57:03It has

00:57:04attacked

00:57:05certain

00:57:05industrial

00:57:06facilities

00:57:07in northern

00:57:08Tehran,

00:57:09and it

00:57:10also

00:57:10attacked

00:57:11yesterday

00:57:12the

00:57:13Iraq

00:57:14nuclear

00:57:15reactor

00:57:16that

00:57:17Iran

00:57:17has

00:57:17been

00:57:18building

00:57:19for at

00:57:20least

00:57:20the

00:57:20last

00:57:2015

00:57:21years.

00:57:21It

00:57:22doesn't

00:57:22seem

00:57:22to be

00:57:22making

00:57:23a huge

00:57:24amount

00:57:24of

00:57:24progress

00:57:25and

00:57:26done

00:57:26some

00:57:26damage

00:57:27to

00:57:27this

00:57:28reactor.

00:57:29The

00:57:29reactor

00:57:30itself

00:57:30is not

00:57:32yet

00:57:32in

00:57:33operation.

00:57:35Iraq

00:57:35is

00:57:36an

00:57:37interesting

00:57:38symbol

00:57:39of

00:57:40Iran's

00:57:40nuclear

00:57:41ambitions

00:57:42because

00:57:43apparently

00:57:43it was

00:57:44first

00:57:44talked

00:57:45about

00:57:46in

00:57:46Iran

00:57:46way

00:57:47back

00:57:48in

00:57:48the

00:57:481990s.

00:57:50The

00:57:50Iranians

00:57:51finally

00:57:51got

00:57:52round

00:57:52to

00:57:52working

00:57:53on

00:57:53it

00:57:54around

00:57:542010

00:57:55but

00:57:56it

00:57:56has

00:57:56never

00:57:56been

00:57:57completed.

00:57:58It

00:57:58was

00:58:00apparently

00:58:00intended

00:58:01to

00:58:01replace

00:58:02the

00:58:02Tehran

00:58:05research

00:58:05reactor

00:58:06that

00:58:07was

00:58:07supplied

00:58:08to

00:58:09Iran

00:58:10by

00:58:11the

00:58:11United

00:58:11States

00:58:12in

00:58:13the

00:58:131960s

00:58:14and

00:58:15the

00:58:15important

00:58:16fact

00:58:17about

00:58:18the

00:58:18Iraq

00:58:19reactor

00:58:19is

00:58:20that

00:58:21it

00:58:21is

00:58:21apparently

00:58:22designed

00:58:22to

00:58:23work

00:58:24without

00:58:24using

00:58:25enriched

00:58:26uranium.

00:58:28I

00:58:29mean

00:58:29I

00:58:29don't

00:58:29quite

00:58:30understand

00:58:30how

00:58:31that

00:58:31works

00:58:32but

00:58:32then

00:58:32I

00:58:32am

00:58:32not

00:58:33a

00:58:34person

00:58:34who

00:58:35understands

00:58:35much

00:58:36about

00:58:36nuclear

00:58:36technology.

00:58:39The

00:58:40thing to

00:58:40say about

00:58:41the

00:58:41Iraq

00:58:42reactor

00:58:42is that

00:58:43if it

00:58:44ever

00:58:44were to

00:58:46be put

00:58:46into

00:58:47operation

00:58:48which it

00:58:49has never

00:58:49been

00:58:49it could

00:58:50conceivably

00:58:51apparently

00:58:52provide

00:58:54Iran

00:58:56with

00:58:57plutonium

00:58:58material

00:58:59which

00:59:00would be

00:59:01another

00:59:01route

00:59:02towards

00:59:02obtaining

00:59:03a

00:59:04nuclear

00:59:04device

00:59:05but

00:59:06there

00:59:07is no

00:59:07evidence

00:59:08that the

00:59:08Iranians

00:59:09have

00:59:09ever

00:59:09planned

00:59:10to

00:59:10use

00:59:11Iraq

00:59:11in that

00:59:12way

00:59:13and

00:59:14just to

00:59:14say

00:59:14again

00:59:15the

00:59:16reactor

00:59:16has

00:59:16never

00:59:17been

00:59:17finished

00:59:17and

00:59:18never

00:59:18gone

00:59:19into

00:59:19operation

00:59:20so

00:59:20the

00:59:21Israelis

00:59:21attacked

00:59:21this

00:59:22reactor

00:59:22and I

00:59:23can't

00:59:24help

00:59:24but

00:59:24think

00:59:24that

00:59:25their

00:59:26doing

00:59:27so

00:59:27is

00:59:28in

00:59:29effect

00:59:30an

00:59:31admission

00:59:32that

00:59:33they

00:59:33can't

00:59:34do

00:59:35significant

00:59:36damage

00:59:36to

00:59:37the

00:59:38actual

00:59:38nuclear

00:59:39enrichment

00:59:40facilities

00:59:41for

00:59:42Do

00:59:42but

00:59:43also

00:59:44to

00:59:45certain

00:59:45extent

00:59:46at

00:59:46least

00:59:46Natanz

00:59:48and

00:59:48Esfahan

00:59:49so

00:59:50anyway

00:59:50there we

00:59:51go

00:59:51so

00:59:51attacks

00:59:52by

00:59:53Israel

00:59:53against

00:59:53Iran

00:59:54and

00:59:55Iran

00:59:55has

00:59:56conducted

00:59:56its own

00:59:56attacks

00:59:57against

00:59:57Israel

00:59:58and

00:59:59it

00:59:59has

00:59:59launched

00:59:59missiles

01:00:00against

01:00:01Israel

01:00:01and

01:00:02again

01:00:02some

01:00:02of

01:00:02these

01:00:03missiles

01:00:03have

01:00:03managed

01:00:05to hit

01:00:06targets

01:00:06in

01:00:07Israel

01:00:07again

01:00:08there is

01:00:08a refusal

01:00:09to

01:00:09acknowledge

01:00:10that

01:00:10Iranian

01:00:11missiles

01:00:12do

01:00:12hit

01:00:12their

01:00:13designated

01:00:13targets

01:00:14in

01:00:15Israel

01:00:15the

01:00:16Iranians

01:00:17have

01:00:17continued

01:00:18their

01:00:18destruction

01:00:19of the

01:00:20buildings

01:00:20of the

01:00:20wise men

01:00:21institute

01:00:22and

01:00:24they've

01:00:24also

01:00:24apparently

01:00:25attacked

01:00:26other

01:00:26military

01:00:27locations

01:00:28in

01:00:29Israel

01:00:30and

01:00:31there are

01:00:33reports

01:00:33which I'm

01:00:34sure are

01:00:34true

01:00:35that the

01:00:36attack

01:00:37on the

01:00:38hospital

01:00:39that was

01:00:39being complained

01:00:40about

01:00:40yesterday

01:00:41was not

01:00:42an attack

01:00:42by Iran

01:00:43on the

01:00:44hospital

01:00:44at all

01:00:45it was

01:00:46an attack

01:00:47on a

01:00:47neighbouring

01:00:48military

01:00:49facility

01:00:50and

01:00:52the

01:00:53fact

01:00:54that the

01:00:55facility

01:00:56was close

01:00:57to the

01:00:57hospital

01:00:58is something

01:00:59that

01:01:00one should

01:01:01be critical

01:01:02of the

01:01:04Israelis

01:01:04for

01:01:05or at

01:01:06least

01:01:07that is

01:01:07what people

01:01:08are saying

01:01:09now

01:01:10here again

01:01:12I'm going to

01:01:12say that I

01:01:13agree with

01:01:14the comment

01:01:15that Larry

01:01:15Johnson has

01:01:16made on

01:01:17Sonar 21

01:01:18which is

01:01:19that the

01:01:19big story

01:01:20of these

01:01:20attacks

01:01:21both by

01:01:21Israel

01:01:22against

01:01:22Iran

01:01:23and by

01:01:24Iran

01:01:24against

01:01:25Israel

01:01:25is that

01:01:26the air

01:01:27defence

01:01:28systems of

01:01:28both sides

01:01:29have fallen

01:01:30short

01:01:31the

01:01:33Iranian

01:01:34air

01:01:35defence

01:01:35system

01:01:36appears to

01:01:38me

01:01:38fragmented

01:01:39and

01:01:40disorganised

01:01:41maybe

01:01:42it has

01:01:43had some

01:01:44effect in

01:01:45deterring

01:01:45Israel

01:01:46from

01:01:47operating

01:01:47aircraft

01:01:48over

01:01:48Iranian

01:01:49airspace

01:01:49though the

01:01:50Israelis

01:01:51of course

01:01:51denied

01:01:52that

01:01:52but it

01:01:53has

01:01:54failed to

01:01:54protect

01:01:55successfully

01:01:57key

01:01:58Iranian

01:01:59targets

01:01:59from

01:02:00Israeli

01:02:04strikes

01:02:04as for

01:02:06the

01:02:07Israeli

01:02:08system

01:02:09as I

01:02:11said

01:02:11it has

01:02:11been

01:02:11talked

01:02:11up

01:02:12massively

01:02:12over

01:02:14the

01:02:14last

01:02:1410 or

01:02:15so

01:02:15years

01:02:16but it

01:02:17is clearly

01:02:17not

01:02:18achieving

01:02:19what

01:02:20many of

01:02:20us were

01:02:21told

01:02:21it would

01:02:22achieve

01:02:23now

01:02:24there is

01:02:25perhaps

01:02:25a vivid

01:02:27film

01:02:28which

01:02:29illustrates

01:02:30this point

01:02:31the

01:02:32Iranians

01:02:34apparently

01:02:34operated

01:02:35perhaps by

01:02:36way of

01:02:36warning

01:02:37one

01:02:38particular

01:02:38missile

01:02:40FATER

01:02:412

01:02:42missile

01:02:42this is

01:02:43said to

01:02:44have a

01:02:44hypersonic

01:02:45capability

01:02:46possibly

01:02:49anyway

01:02:50the picture

01:02:51shows

01:02:52Israeli

01:02:54air defense

01:02:54missiles

01:02:55being

01:02:55launched

01:02:56in some

01:02:57number

01:02:58to try

01:02:59to shoot

01:02:59down

01:02:59this

01:03:00missile

01:03:00this

01:03:01FATER

01:03:012

01:03:01incoming

01:03:02FATER

01:03:032

01:03:03missile

01:03:04into the

01:03:06night sky

01:03:06you can

01:03:07see

01:03:07the

01:03:08missiles

01:03:08being

01:03:08launched

01:03:09the

01:03:11Israeli

01:03:12missiles

01:03:12the air

01:03:12defense

01:03:13missiles

01:03:13being

01:03:13launched

01:03:14and then

01:03:15you

01:03:15suddenly

01:03:15see

01:03:16streaking

01:03:17across the

01:03:18sky

01:03:18at

01:03:19extraordinary

01:03:19speed

01:03:20entirely

01:03:21unaffected

01:03:22by all

01:03:23of these

01:03:23Israeli

01:03:24missiles

01:03:25which it

01:03:26leaves

01:03:26trailing

01:03:27in its

01:03:27wake

01:03:28is the

01:03:29incoming

01:03:30FATER

01:03:302

01:03:31missile

01:03:32and

01:03:33then

01:03:34you

01:03:34see

01:03:34impact

01:03:36and

01:03:37you

01:03:37see

01:03:37an

01:03:37explosion

01:03:38what

01:03:39exactly

01:03:40the

01:03:40FATER

01:03:402

01:03:41missile

01:03:41hit

01:03:42whether

01:03:43it hit

01:03:44its

01:03:44target

01:03:44I'm

01:03:45not even

01:03:45going to

01:03:46try and

01:03:46speculate

01:03:46but

01:03:47the

01:03:49whole

01:03:50film

01:03:50illustrates

01:03:52a number

01:03:52of

01:03:53things

01:03:53firstly

01:03:54that

01:03:54the

01:03:54Israeli

01:03:55air

01:03:55defense

01:03:56system

01:03:56is not

01:03:57able to

01:03:58shoot down

01:03:59Iranian

01:03:59hypersonic

01:04:00missiles

01:04:01like

01:04:01the

01:04:01FATER

01:04:022

01:04:02and

01:04:03secondly

01:04:04that

01:04:06in their

01:04:06attempt

01:04:07to

01:04:08shoot

01:04:08down

01:04:09the

01:04:09FATER

01:04:092

01:04:10the

01:04:11Israelis

01:04:11had to

01:04:12use

01:04:12or

01:04:12tried

01:04:13to

01:04:13use

01:04:13launched

01:04:15large

01:04:15numbers

01:04:16of

01:04:17air

01:04:17defense

01:04:18missiles

01:04:18that are

01:04:19in short

01:04:19supply

01:04:20to

01:04:21no

01:04:22visible

01:04:23effect

01:04:24so

01:04:25I

01:04:26think

01:04:26that

01:04:26those

01:04:27American

01:04:28concerns

01:04:29that the

01:04:30Times

01:04:30was

01:04:31talking

01:04:31about

01:04:31that

01:04:32the

01:04:33Iranians

01:04:33have

01:04:34demonstrated

01:04:34a

01:04:34capability

01:04:35to

01:04:36strike

01:04:36targets

01:04:37in

01:04:38Israel

01:04:38with

01:04:39their

01:04:39hypersonic

01:04:40missiles

01:04:41and

01:04:42that

01:04:43this

01:04:43means

01:04:43that

01:04:44the

01:04:44Iranians

01:04:45could

01:04:46also

01:04:46strike

01:04:47American

01:04:47targets

01:04:48across

01:04:49the

01:04:49Middle

01:04:49East

01:04:50well

01:04:51the

01:04:52film

01:04:53the

01:04:54facts

01:04:54basically

01:04:56show

01:04:56that

01:04:57that

01:04:57is

01:04:58true

01:04:58now

01:04:59that

01:05:00is

01:05:00the

01:05:00reality

01:05:01it

01:05:02is

01:05:02also

01:05:02apparently

01:05:03the

01:05:03reality

01:05:03that

01:05:04Israel

01:05:05is

01:05:05indeed

01:05:06running

01:05:06short

01:05:06of

01:05:07air

01:05:07defense

01:05:08missiles

01:05:08there

01:05:10are

01:05:10reports

01:05:11again

01:05:11I

01:05:11suspect

01:05:12they

01:05:12originate

01:05:12with

01:05:13Larry

01:05:13Johnson

01:05:13that

01:05:14at least

01:05:15I've

01:05:15read

01:05:15them

01:05:16I've

01:05:16read

01:05:16it

01:05:17I've

01:05:17learned

01:05:17about

01:05:17it

01:05:17from

01:05:18Larry

01:05:18Johnson

01:05:18but

01:05:19apparently

01:05:19there

01:05:19are

01:05:20reports

01:05:20that

01:05:21some

01:05:22people

01:05:22within

01:05:22the

01:05:23US

01:05:24intelligence

01:05:25and

01:05:25defense

01:05:26community

01:05:26believe

01:05:27that

01:05:27Iran

01:05:29is

01:05:29running

01:05:30short

01:05:30of

01:05:31missiles

01:05:31perhaps

01:05:33that

01:05:33is

01:05:34true

01:05:34the

01:05:35Iranians

01:05:36claim

01:05:36otherwise

01:05:37I

01:05:39think

01:05:39it

01:05:39would

01:05:39be

01:05:39complacent

01:05:40to

01:05:42suppose

01:05:42that

01:05:43it

01:05:44is

01:05:44true

01:05:44given

01:05:45the

01:05:45fact

01:05:46that

01:05:46the

01:05:46Iranian

01:05:46missiles

01:05:47are

01:05:48indeed

01:05:48getting

01:05:49through

01:05:49now

01:05:50I'm

01:05:52going

01:05:52to

01:05:52finish

01:05:52here

01:05:52by

01:05:53saying

01:05:53one

01:05:53last

01:05:54thing

01:05:54which

01:05:55is

01:05:55apparently

01:05:55or at

01:05:57least

01:05:57there

01:05:57are

01:05:57reports

01:05:58that

01:05:59the

01:05:59CIA

01:05:59director

01:06:00John

01:06:00Radcliffe

01:06:01is

01:06:02indeed

01:06:03coming

01:06:03out

01:06:03and

01:06:04is

01:06:05telling

01:06:06Trump

01:06:06that

01:06:07he

01:06:07thinks

01:06:07that

01:06:07there

01:06:07is

01:06:08some

01:06:08truth

01:06:09to

01:06:10the

01:06:10Israeli

01:06:11claims

01:06:11that

01:06:12the

01:06:12Iranians

01:06:12were

01:06:13indeed

01:06:13moving

01:06:13forward

01:06:14to

01:06:15acquire

01:06:17a

01:06:18nuclear

01:06:18weapons

01:06:19capability

01:06:20now that

01:06:21directly

01:06:22and

01:06:22flatly

01:06:23contradicts

01:06:24what

01:06:24the

01:06:25director

01:06:25of

01:06:26national

01:06:26intelligence

01:06:27Tulsi

01:06:27Gabbard

01:06:28said

01:06:29was the

01:06:29consensus

01:06:30opinion

01:06:31of the

01:06:31US

01:06:32intelligence

01:06:32community

01:06:33just a

01:06:33few

01:06:34weeks

01:06:34ago

01:06:34in

01:06:34March

01:06:35I

01:06:38cannot

01:06:38believe

01:06:39that

01:06:40the

01:06:40CIA

01:06:41has

01:06:41obtained

01:06:42any

01:06:42new

01:06:43information

01:06:43since

01:06:44that

01:06:45assessment

01:06:46that

01:06:47was

01:06:48made

01:06:48in

01:06:48March

01:06:49which

01:06:50the

01:06:51CIA

01:06:51was

01:06:52backing

01:06:53at

01:06:54that

01:06:54time

01:06:55I

01:06:56understand

01:06:56that

01:06:57Tulsi

01:06:57Gabbard

01:06:58is

01:06:58sticking

01:06:59with

01:07:00her

01:07:00March

01:07:012025

01:07:02assessment

01:07:04I

01:07:05it

01:07:06seems

01:07:07to me

01:07:07that

01:07:08what

01:07:10we're

01:07:10starting

01:07:10to see

01:07:11is

01:07:12that

01:07:12intelligence

01:07:14coming

01:07:16from the

01:07:16CIA

01:07:16in this

01:07:17case

01:07:17is

01:07:18being

01:07:18politicised

01:07:19again

01:07:20to

01:07:20suit

01:07:21some

01:07:22people's

01:07:22agendas

01:07:23exactly

01:07:24as

01:07:24happened

01:07:25in the

01:07:26run-up

01:07:26to the

01:07:262003

01:07:27Iraq

01:07:28war

01:07:28anyway

01:07:30there we

01:07:30go

01:07:30this is

01:07:31where I

01:07:32finish

01:07:32my

01:07:32programme

01:07:33today

01:07:33my

01:07:34discussion

01:07:35of the

01:07:35Iranian

01:07:36situation

01:07:37today

01:07:37the

01:07:38Iranians

01:07:39continue

01:07:39publicly

01:07:40to take

01:07:40a very

01:07:41very

01:07:41hard

01:07:41line

01:07:42they're

01:07:42saying

01:07:42that

01:07:43they're

01:07:43not

01:07:43prepared

01:07:43to

01:07:43negotiate

01:07:44with

01:07:44the

01:07:44United

01:07:45States

01:07:45until

01:07:46the

01:07:47attacks

01:07:48on

01:07:48Iran

01:07:48cease

01:07:49that

01:07:51puts

01:07:51President

01:07:52Trump

01:07:52in a

01:07:53very

01:07:53difficult

01:07:53position

01:07:54we

01:07:56will

01:07:56see

01:07:56what

01:07:56the

01:07:57various

01:07:57armies

01:07:58of

01:07:58mediators

01:07:59the

01:08:00Chinese

01:08:00and

01:08:00the

01:08:01Russians

01:08:01the

01:08:02Europeans

01:08:02Arab

01:08:04States

01:08:04what

01:08:04they

01:08:05all

01:08:05managed

01:08:05to

01:08:05do

01:08:06and

01:08:06whether

01:08:07somehow

01:08:08some

01:08:09off-ramp

01:08:10will be

01:08:11found

01:08:12to enable

01:08:13the

01:08:13United

01:08:13States

01:08:14the

01:08:16President

01:08:16to back

01:08:17off

01:08:17if that

01:08:18is what

01:08:19he genuinely

01:08:20wants to

01:08:21do

01:08:21I'm far

01:08:22from confident

01:08:23as I made

01:08:24clear in this

01:08:24programme

01:08:25that he

01:08:26is

01:08:26and to

01:08:28achieve

01:08:28that

01:08:28cessation

01:08:29of

01:08:29missile

01:08:31strikes

01:08:32and

01:08:33perhaps

01:08:33a

01:08:34resumption

01:08:35of

01:08:35negotiations

01:08:36over the

01:08:37course of

01:08:37the next

01:08:38couple of

01:08:39days

01:08:39or weeks

01:08:40I'm not

01:08:41convinced

01:08:42as I said

01:08:42that there

01:08:43is

01:08:43actually

01:08:44an

01:08:45opening

01:08:46for

01:08:47negotiations

01:08:48despite

01:08:49what the

01:08:50White House

01:08:50spokesman

01:08:51said

01:08:52yesterday

01:08:52but we'll

01:08:53have to

01:08:54wait and

01:08:54see

01:08:54anyway

01:08:56I'm going

01:08:56to now

01:08:57turn to

01:08:57the topic

01:08:58once more

01:08:59of the

01:08:59conflict

01:09:00in Ukraine

01:09:01and again

01:09:02since I

01:09:03have had

01:09:04to devote

01:09:05most of

01:09:05this programme

01:09:06to the

01:09:07Iran

01:09:08Israel

01:09:09conflict

01:09:10I'm not

01:09:10going to

01:09:11be able

01:09:11to give

01:09:12a huge

01:09:13amount

01:09:13of time

01:09:13to this

01:09:14topic

01:09:14but

01:09:16suffice

01:09:17to say

01:09:17that the

01:09:18Russian

01:09:18advances

01:09:19continue

01:09:20right across

01:09:21the front

01:09:22lines

01:09:22and

01:09:24about

01:09:25two

01:09:25days

01:09:25ago

01:09:26the

01:09:27chief

01:09:28of

01:09:28general

01:09:29staff

01:09:29of the

01:09:30Russian

01:09:30armed

01:09:30forces

01:09:30the

01:09:31most

01:09:31senior

01:09:31military

01:09:32officer

01:09:33in other

01:09:33words

01:09:34in Russia

01:09:34General

01:09:34Gerasimov

01:09:35who is

01:09:36also

01:09:37the

01:09:37overall

01:09:37commander

01:09:38of

01:09:39the

01:09:40forces

01:09:40that

01:09:42are

01:09:42conducting

01:09:43the

01:09:43special

01:09:43military

01:09:44operation

01:09:45anyway

01:09:46Gerasimov

01:09:47visited

01:09:49the

01:09:49headquarters

01:09:50of

01:09:51group

01:09:51of

01:09:52forces

01:09:52center

01:09:53which

01:09:54is

01:09:55the

01:09:55force

01:09:55that

01:09:55is

01:09:55currently

01:09:57besieging

01:09:58Pakrosk

01:09:59and whose

01:10:00forces

01:10:01are moving

01:10:02into

01:10:02Dnepro-Petrovsk

01:10:03region

01:10:04and this

01:10:05is a

01:10:06suggest

01:10:06this is

01:10:06an

01:10:07interesting

01:10:07visit

01:10:08Gerasimov

01:10:10does

01:10:10regularly

01:10:11conduct

01:10:12conducts

01:10:12regular

01:10:13visits

01:10:13to

01:10:15military

01:10:15headquarters

01:10:16but

01:10:17it

01:10:18does

01:10:18make

01:10:18me

01:10:18wonder

01:10:19whether

01:10:20perhaps

01:10:22the

01:10:23battle

01:10:24for

01:10:24Pakrosk

01:10:25and

01:10:26the

01:10:26push

01:10:27towards

01:10:28the

01:10:28Dnepro

01:10:28are

01:10:29indeed

01:10:30the

01:10:30Russian

01:10:30priorities

01:10:31for the

01:10:32next

01:10:32few

01:10:32weeks

01:10:33anyway

01:10:34in the

01:10:35meantime

01:10:35I've

01:10:37received

01:10:37some

01:10:37really

01:10:38rather

01:10:38very

01:10:38interesting

01:10:39news

01:10:39about

01:10:40the

01:10:40overall

01:10:41situation

01:10:41of the

01:10:42Ukrainian

01:10:42armed

01:10:43forces

01:10:44I

01:10:44spoke

01:10:45yesterday

01:10:45about

01:10:46the

01:10:47fact

01:10:47that

01:10:47Putin

01:10:48says

01:10:49that

01:10:49the

01:10:50Ukrainian

01:10:50military

01:10:51is

01:10:51down

01:10:52to

01:10:5247%

01:10:54strength

01:10:54that

01:10:56hardly

01:10:58any

01:10:58brigades

01:10:59are up

01:11:00to

01:11:00strength

01:11:00any

01:11:01longer

01:11:01in

01:11:01Ukraine

01:11:02there

01:11:05has

01:11:05been

01:11:06an

01:11:07article

01:11:08in

01:11:08the

01:11:08German

01:11:09media

01:11:09I

01:11:09believe

01:11:09it

01:11:09was

01:11:10Die Welt

01:11:10we

01:11:11said

01:11:11the

01:11:11same

01:11:11thing

01:11:12that

01:11:13the

01:11:13Ukrainian

01:11:14army

01:11:15is now

01:11:15desperately

01:11:16short

01:11:16of

01:11:16men

01:11:17and

01:11:18that

01:11:19large

01:11:20areas

01:11:20of the

01:11:21front

01:11:21lines

01:11:21are

01:11:22being

01:11:22left

01:11:23effectively

01:11:24undefended

01:11:25and that

01:11:26the Russians

01:11:27are pushing

01:11:28forward

01:11:28at the rate

01:11:29of about

01:11:3014

01:11:30kilometers

01:11:31a day

01:11:32which

01:11:32if true

01:11:33by the

01:11:33way

01:11:33would be

01:11:34an

01:11:34extremely

01:11:35fast

01:11:35advance

01:11:36and

01:11:38that

01:11:38the

01:11:38situation

01:11:39for

01:11:39Ukraine

01:11:39is

01:11:40becoming

01:11:40desperate

01:11:41now

01:11:42I

01:11:43received

01:11:43an

01:11:44email

01:11:44today

01:11:45from

01:11:46someone

01:11:47who I

01:11:47consider

01:11:48to be

01:11:48an

01:11:48exceptionally

01:11:49reliable

01:11:50source

01:11:51on this

01:11:52matter

01:11:52and

01:11:53he

01:11:54said

01:11:55that

01:11:56in

01:11:57any

01:11:57one

01:11:58month

01:11:58Ukraine

01:11:59is only

01:12:01able

01:12:01to

01:12:01receive

01:12:02a

01:12:04third

01:12:04of the

01:12:05gun

01:12:05barrels

01:12:05it

01:12:06needs

01:12:06in

01:12:07order

01:12:07to

01:12:08keep

01:12:08its

01:12:08artillery

01:12:09operating

01:12:10it

01:12:11manages

01:12:12to

01:12:13get

01:12:13by

01:12:14by

01:12:15using

01:12:15all

01:12:16sorts

01:12:16of

01:12:17cobbled

01:12:17together

01:12:18adaptations

01:12:21of

01:12:22old

01:12:22gun

01:12:23barrels

01:12:24I'm

01:12:25not

01:12:25going

01:12:25to

01:12:25describe

01:12:26this

01:12:26because

01:12:26probably

01:12:27if I

01:12:27do

01:12:27I

01:12:28will

01:12:28be

01:12:28giving

01:12:28too

01:12:29much

01:12:29away

01:12:29about

01:12:29the

01:12:30source

01:12:30but

01:12:31anyway

01:12:32the

01:12:32situation

01:12:33with

01:12:34gun

01:12:35barrels

01:12:35is

01:12:36problematic

01:12:37that

01:12:40Ukraine

01:12:42is no

01:12:44longer

01:12:44receiving

01:12:45artillery

01:12:47ammunition

01:12:48or new

01:12:48gun

01:12:49barrels

01:12:49from the

01:12:50west

01:12:50and that

01:12:51the west

01:12:52simply

01:12:52cannot

01:12:52produce

01:12:53enough

01:12:54gun

01:12:54barrels

01:12:55for

01:12:56Ukraine

01:12:56or

01:12:57artillery

01:12:57shells

01:12:58for

01:12:58Ukraine

01:12:58that

01:13:00the

01:13:00Ukrainian

01:13:01military

01:13:01as a

01:13:03result

01:13:03has been

01:13:03forced

01:13:04to

01:13:04revert

01:13:04almost

01:13:05entirely

01:13:05to

01:13:07Soviet

01:13:08and

01:13:08Russian

01:13:09guns

01:13:10and

01:13:10ammunition

01:13:11and

01:13:12that

01:13:13these

01:13:14have

01:13:14come

01:13:14from

01:13:15the

01:13:15former

01:13:15Syrian

01:13:16army

01:13:16stocks

01:13:17supplied

01:13:18to

01:13:18Ukraine

01:13:19by

01:13:19Turkey

01:13:20I've

01:13:20discussed

01:13:21that

01:13:21in many

01:13:23previous

01:13:23programmes

01:13:24based on

01:13:25information

01:13:25by the

01:13:26way

01:13:26I've

01:13:27had

01:13:27mostly

01:13:28from

01:13:28this

01:13:29same

01:13:29source

01:13:29and

01:13:31that

01:13:31ammunition

01:13:33is now

01:13:34starting

01:13:34to

01:13:35wear

01:13:35out

01:13:36and

01:13:37that

01:13:37on

01:13:37top

01:13:38of

01:13:38all

01:13:38of

01:13:38Ukraine's

01:13:39other

01:13:39problems

01:13:40it

01:13:41is

01:13:41now

01:13:42about

01:13:43to

01:13:44start

01:13:44suffering

01:13:45severe

01:13:46shortages

01:13:47of

01:13:48ammunition

01:13:49this

01:13:50at a

01:13:50time

01:13:50when

01:13:51there

01:13:51are

01:13:51shortages

01:13:51of

01:13:52drones

01:13:52including

01:13:54FPV

01:13:55drones

01:13:55they're

01:13:57no longer

01:13:57as

01:13:58dominant

01:13:58in the

01:13:59skies

01:14:00over the

01:14:00battlefronts

01:14:01the Ukrainian

01:14:02drones

01:14:02as they

01:14:03used to

01:14:03be

01:14:04Ukraine

01:14:05is now

01:14:05massively

01:14:06outnumbered

01:14:06by drones

01:14:07by the

01:14:08Russians

01:14:08and

01:14:11of course

01:14:12the

01:14:12personnel

01:14:12shortages

01:14:13and

01:14:14there

01:14:14was

01:14:15an

01:14:15article

01:14:15again

01:14:15I

01:14:16think

01:14:16it

01:14:16might

01:14:16have

01:14:16been

01:14:16from

01:14:17the

01:14:17same

01:14:17article

01:14:18which

01:14:19talked

01:14:19about

01:14:20the

01:14:20situation

01:14:20with

01:14:21armoured

01:14:21vehicles

01:14:22the

01:14:23major

01:14:24armoured

01:14:25vehicle

01:14:25infantry

01:14:26fighting

01:14:26vehicle

01:14:27that

01:14:27Ukraine

01:14:28has

01:14:28been

01:14:28relying

01:14:29upon

01:14:29basically

01:14:31since

01:14:312023

01:14:32has

01:14:34been

01:14:34the

01:14:34Bradley

01:14:34and

01:14:36Ukraine

01:14:37received

01:14:39around

01:14:40270

01:14:41Bradleys

01:14:42in total

01:14:43from the

01:14:44United

01:14:44States

01:14:45and

01:14:46as I

01:14:46remember

01:14:46around

01:14:47300

01:14:47wheeled

01:14:49striker

01:14:49infantry

01:14:50fighting

01:14:51vehicles

01:14:51one

01:14:52no longer

01:14:53sees so

01:14:53much of

01:14:54the striker

01:14:54anymore

01:14:55I gather

01:14:56that most

01:14:57of them

01:14:57were destroyed

01:14:58in

01:14:59the

01:15:00Kursk

01:15:00operation

01:15:01just to

01:15:02say

01:15:03and

01:15:04the

01:15:04number

01:15:05of

01:15:06Bradleys

01:15:07the

01:15:08total

01:15:08number

01:15:08of

01:15:09Bradleys

01:15:10that

01:15:11are

01:15:12left

01:15:12numbers

01:15:13around

01:15:14120

01:15:15the

01:15:16remaining

01:15:17150

01:15:18are

01:15:20either

01:15:20destroyed

01:15:21or

01:15:21irreparably

01:15:22damaged

01:15:23or have

01:15:24become

01:15:25trophies

01:15:26for the

01:15:26Russians

01:15:27and

01:15:28given

01:15:29the fact

01:15:29that

01:15:29we're

01:15:30talking

01:15:30about

01:15:30a

01:15:311200

01:15:31kilometre

01:15:33contact

01:15:34line

01:15:35120

01:15:36Bradleys

01:15:37is

01:15:37nowhere

01:15:38near

01:15:38enough

01:15:39and

01:15:40Bradley's

01:15:41infantry

01:15:42fighting

01:15:42vehicles

01:15:43are

01:15:43becoming

01:15:43so

01:15:44few

01:15:44that

01:15:45Ukraine

01:15:45is

01:15:46being

01:15:46forced

01:15:46to

01:15:47husband

01:15:47them

01:15:48so

01:15:49there

01:15:50are

01:15:50equipment

01:15:51shortages

01:15:51which

01:15:52are

01:15:52starting

01:15:52to

01:15:53aggravate

01:15:54as

01:15:55well

01:15:56armoured

01:15:57vehicle

01:15:57shortages

01:15:58it is

01:15:59a while

01:16:01by the

01:16:01way

01:16:01since

01:16:03I saw

01:16:03much

01:16:04evidence

01:16:04of

01:16:05Ukrainian

01:16:06tanks

01:16:07operating

01:16:08on the

01:16:09battle

01:16:09fronts

01:16:09apparently

01:16:10most of

01:16:11the

01:16:11Abrams

01:16:13tanks

01:16:13have

01:16:13gone

01:16:13most of

01:16:15the

01:16:15Leopard

01:16:152s

01:16:16have

01:16:16gone

01:16:16Ukraine

01:16:17does

01:16:18have a

01:16:19significant

01:16:19number

01:16:20of

01:16:20Leopard

01:16:201s

01:16:21German

01:16:22designed

01:16:23tanks

01:16:24designed

01:16:24in the

01:16:251950s

01:16:26put in

01:16:26production

01:16:26in the

01:16:271960s

01:16:28by all

01:16:30accounts

01:16:30a reliable

01:16:31and

01:16:32mobile

01:16:33tank

01:16:34but one

01:16:35that

01:16:35really

01:16:36is

01:16:37outmatched

01:16:38by Russian

01:16:39tanks

01:16:40on the

01:16:41modern

01:16:42battlefield

01:16:42and I'm

01:16:44not sure

01:16:45how many

01:16:45of those

01:16:46anyway

01:16:47Ukraine

01:16:48has left

01:16:49so

01:16:50shortages

01:16:51of drones

01:16:52artillery

01:16:53armoured

01:16:55vehicles

01:16:55it's a

01:16:56very long

01:16:57time

01:16:57since I

01:16:57saw

01:16:58Soviet

01:16:59era

01:16:59BMPs

01:17:00in the

01:17:01Ukrainian

01:17:01army

01:17:02to say

01:17:03it simply

01:17:03all of

01:17:05these

01:17:06all of

01:17:07these

01:17:07pieces

01:17:08of

01:17:08equipment

01:17:08in

01:17:09increasingly

01:17:10short

01:17:10supply

01:17:11even

01:17:12as the

01:17:13Russian

01:17:13army

01:17:14increases

01:17:15in

01:17:15combat

01:17:16it

01:17:16increases

01:17:17its

01:17:17combat

01:17:17power

01:17:18from

01:17:19one

01:17:20week

01:17:20to

01:17:21the

01:17:22other

01:17:22sooner

01:17:24or later

01:17:25something

01:17:25is going

01:17:25to give

01:17:26and probably

01:17:27a lot

01:17:28sooner

01:17:28than later

01:17:29just say

01:17:30there's

01:17:31been

01:17:31a

01:17:32another

01:17:34excellent

01:17:35article

01:17:36by

01:17:37Lieutenant

01:17:37Colonel

01:17:37Alex

01:17:38Vershinin

01:17:39the person

01:17:40who wrote

01:17:41about

01:17:41industrial

01:17:42war

01:17:42you can

01:17:44find it

01:17:44on

01:17:45responsible

01:17:45statecraft

01:17:47Alex

01:17:49Vershinin

01:17:49is scathing

01:17:53about

01:17:54NATO's

01:17:55inability

01:17:56to learn

01:17:57anything

01:17:58from

01:18:00the

01:18:01way in

01:18:02which the

01:18:02war

01:18:03in Ukraine

01:18:04has been

01:18:05conducted

01:18:05and the

01:18:10way in

01:18:11which the

01:18:11NATO

01:18:13militaries

01:18:13continue

01:18:15to

01:18:16cling

01:18:16to

01:18:17outdated

01:18:18and

01:18:18discredited

01:18:19ideas

01:18:20the article's

01:18:21title is

01:18:22incidentally

01:18:22is how

01:18:23NATO

01:18:23military

01:18:24doctrine

01:18:25failed

01:18:25Ukraine

01:18:26on

01:18:27the

01:18:28battlefield

01:18:28and

01:18:30he

01:18:32writes

01:18:32and I

01:18:33absolutely

01:18:34agree with

01:18:34him about

01:18:34this

01:18:35many

01:18:35Western

01:18:36military

01:18:36specialists

01:18:37do not

01:18:38appreciate

01:18:38the

01:18:38evolution

01:18:39in

01:18:39warfare

01:18:40they

01:18:40believe

01:18:41that

01:18:41NATO's

01:18:42combined

01:18:42arms

01:18:42doctrine

01:18:43will

01:18:44break

01:18:44the

01:18:44Russian

01:18:45army

01:18:45unfortunately

01:18:47emerging

01:18:48technology

01:18:49increased

01:18:49defensive

01:18:50power

01:18:50to the

01:18:52point

01:18:52where it

01:18:52defeats

01:18:53the

01:18:54protection

01:18:54of the

01:18:55attacker

01:18:55and

01:18:56then he

01:18:56describes

01:18:57the way

01:18:59in which

01:18:59the

01:19:00West

01:19:01clings

01:19:02to

01:19:03this

01:19:03combined

01:19:04arms

01:19:04philosophy

01:19:05that

01:19:06it

01:19:07developed

01:19:07in the

01:19:081980s

01:19:09and

01:19:10seems

01:19:10very

01:19:11unwilling

01:19:12to

01:19:13learn

01:19:13from the

01:19:14fact

01:19:14that

01:19:14it

01:19:14failed

01:19:14in

01:19:15Ukraine

01:19:15most

01:19:16pundits

01:19:17assume

01:19:17that

01:19:17NATO

01:19:18failed

01:19:18to

01:19:19follow

01:19:19NATO

01:19:20doctrine

01:19:20this

01:19:21is

01:19:21false

01:19:22Ukraine

01:19:23tried

01:19:24NATO

01:19:24doctrine

01:19:25but

01:19:26abandoned

01:19:26it

01:19:27after

01:19:28it

01:19:28failed

01:19:28on the

01:19:29battlefield

01:19:29it

01:19:31lacked

01:19:32a

01:19:32realistic

01:19:32concept

01:19:33for

01:19:34dealing

01:19:34with

01:19:35enemy

01:19:35minefields

01:19:36and

01:19:36fortifications

01:19:37German

01:19:38instructors

01:19:39told

01:19:40incredulous

01:19:41Ukrainian

01:19:41soldiers

01:19:42just

01:19:43drive

01:19:44around

01:19:44the

01:19:45minefields

01:19:46the

01:19:46advice

01:19:47proved

01:19:47suicidal

01:19:48in the

01:19:49face of

01:19:49Russian

01:19:49sappers

01:19:50whose

01:19:51reputation

01:19:51for

01:19:52massive

01:19:52complex

01:19:53minefields

01:19:54reach back

01:19:55to

01:19:55World

01:19:55War

01:19:56II

01:19:56and

01:19:57then

01:19:57he

01:19:58describes

01:19:58how

01:19:59there is

01:20:00a

01:20:00complete

01:20:01lack

01:20:01of

01:20:02realism

01:20:02about

01:20:04much

01:20:04understanding

01:20:05of the

01:20:05way in

01:20:06which

01:20:06the

01:20:06Russians

01:20:06actually

01:20:07conduct

01:20:08war

01:20:08and

01:20:10he

01:20:10speaks

01:20:11about

01:20:11observing

01:20:11the

01:20:12latest

01:20:12NATO

01:20:12exercise

01:20:13in

01:20:14the

01:20:14Baltic

01:20:14French

01:20:15soldiers

01:20:16still

01:20:16clear

01:20:16trenches

01:20:17in

01:20:17large

01:20:18clustered

01:20:18groups

01:20:19using

01:20:20small

01:20:20arms

01:20:21the

01:20:21only

01:20:22drone

01:20:22visible

01:20:23belongs

01:20:23to

01:20:24the

01:20:24reporter

01:20:24taking

01:20:25PR

01:20:26shots

01:20:26meanwhile

01:20:27in

01:20:28Ukraine

01:20:28the

01:20:29Russian

01:20:29army

01:20:29uses

01:20:30drones

01:20:30at

01:20:30every

01:20:31level

01:20:31from

01:20:32providing

01:20:32instant

01:20:33updates

01:20:34to

01:20:34assault

01:20:34troops

01:20:35to

01:20:35dropping

01:20:35grenades

01:20:36into

01:20:37strong

01:20:37points

01:20:37ahead

01:20:38of

01:20:38them

01:20:38to

01:20:39preserve

01:20:39the

01:20:39lives

01:20:40of

01:20:40soldiers

01:20:40grenades

01:20:41and

01:20:42large

01:20:42explosives

01:20:43are

01:20:43used

01:20:43to

01:20:43clear

01:20:44bunkers

01:20:44and

01:20:45corners

01:20:45instead

01:20:46of

01:20:47sending

01:20:47men

01:20:47the

01:20:48French

01:20:49appear

01:20:49to

01:20:49do

01:20:50none

01:20:50of

01:20:50these

01:20:50tactics

01:20:51the

01:20:52outcome

01:20:52of a

01:20:53clash

01:20:53between

01:20:54these

01:20:54two

01:20:54forces

01:20:55French

01:20:55and

01:20:56the

01:20:56Russian

01:20:56is

01:20:57not

01:20:57hard

01:20:58to

01:20:58predict

01:20:59a

01:21:00similar

01:21:00picture

01:21:01appears

01:21:01to be

01:21:02in

01:21:03the

01:21:03air

01:21:04where

01:21:05both

01:21:05sides

01:21:05are

01:21:06flying

01:21:06low

01:21:06employing

01:21:07standoff

01:21:08munitions

01:21:09lobbed from

01:21:09safety

01:21:10provided by

01:21:11friendly air

01:21:12defence

01:21:13glide bombs

01:21:14are the

01:21:14weapons of

01:21:15choice

01:21:15for both

01:21:16Russians

01:21:17and

01:21:17Ukrainians

01:21:18reducing

01:21:19exposure

01:21:20time and

01:21:21reducing

01:21:21aircraft

01:21:22losses

01:21:23to

01:21:23single

01:21:24digits

01:21:24of course

01:21:26the

01:21:27Russians

01:21:27used

01:21:27glide

01:21:27bombs

01:21:28on a

01:21:29scale

01:21:29vastly

01:21:30greater

01:21:30than

01:21:31Ukraine

01:21:31and

01:21:32Vashinin

01:21:33asks

01:21:34will

01:21:34NATO

01:21:34adopt

01:21:35this

01:21:35practice

01:21:35unlikely

01:21:36NATO

01:21:37military

01:21:38experts

01:21:39still talk

01:21:40about

01:21:40gaining

01:21:41air

01:21:41superiority

01:21:42and

01:21:42penetrating

01:21:43airspace

01:21:44beyond

01:21:44the

01:21:44front

01:21:45flying

01:21:46into

01:21:46the

01:21:46very

01:21:46heart

01:21:47of

01:21:47Russian

01:21:47air

01:21:48defences

01:21:49without

01:21:49massive

01:21:50US

01:21:50air

01:21:51force

01:21:51Europeans

01:21:52would

01:21:53quickly

01:21:53run

01:21:53out

01:21:54of

01:21:54aircraft

01:21:57I

01:21:58believe

01:21:58as

01:21:58Vashinin

01:21:59clearly

01:21:59does

01:22:00that

01:22:00whole

01:22:01idea

01:22:01is

01:22:02absolutely

01:22:03facile

01:22:03and

01:22:04absurd

01:22:05and

01:22:05would

01:22:06quickly

01:22:06result

01:22:07in the

01:22:07destruction

01:22:08of any

01:22:08air

01:22:09force

01:22:09even

01:22:10the

01:22:10American

01:22:10which

01:22:11tried

01:22:12to

01:22:12apply

01:22:12it

01:22:13so

01:22:13there

01:22:14it

01:22:14is

01:22:14it's

01:22:16a

01:22:16dismal

01:22:17picture

01:22:17there's

01:22:18been

01:22:18many

01:22:18comments

01:22:19comparing

01:22:21the

01:22:22marching

01:22:22of the

01:22:23American

01:22:24troops

01:22:24in the

01:22:25recent

01:22:25parade

01:22:26in

01:22:26Washington

01:22:26with

01:22:27the

01:22:27marching

01:22:28of the

01:22:28Russian

01:22:29and

01:22:29Chinese

01:22:29troops

01:22:30at

01:22:30their

01:22:31respective

01:22:31parades

01:22:32I have

01:22:33nothing

01:22:33to add

01:22:34to the

01:22:34many

01:22:35scathing

01:22:35comments

01:22:36people

01:22:36have

01:22:36made

01:22:37about

01:22:38that

01:22:38it

01:22:39remains

01:22:39astonishing

01:22:40that

01:22:41Western

01:22:42leaders

01:22:44still

01:22:45cling

01:22:46to the

01:22:46belief

01:22:47that

01:22:48their

01:22:48military

01:22:49is

01:22:49qualitatively

01:22:51superior

01:22:52to the

01:22:52Russian

01:22:53even

01:22:54when the

01:22:54realities

01:22:55show

01:22:56exactly

01:22:57the

01:22:57contrary

01:22:57anyway

01:22:59none of

01:22:59this of

01:23:00course

01:23:00impacts

01:23:01on the

01:23:01realities

01:23:02of the

01:23:02situation

01:23:03on the

01:23:04ground

01:23:04in

01:23:04Ukraine

01:23:05where the

01:23:06Russians

01:23:06continue

01:23:06to win

01:23:07the

01:23:07war

01:23:08at

01:23:09an

01:23:09ever

01:23:09faster

01:23:11accelerating

01:23:12rate

01:23:13without

01:23:15any

01:23:15sign

01:23:16that

01:23:17the

01:23:17Ukrainians

01:23:18can do

01:23:18anything

01:23:19to prevent

01:23:20it

01:23:20well

01:23:21this is

01:23:21where I

01:23:22finished

01:23:22today's

01:23:22program

01:23:23let me

01:23:23remind you

01:23:24again

01:23:24you can

01:23:25find all

01:23:25our

01:23:25programs

01:23:26on our

01:23:26various

01:23:26platforms

01:23:27locals

01:23:28rumble

01:23:28and x

01:23:29you can

01:23:29support

01:23:30our work

01:23:30via patreon

01:23:31and subscribe

01:23:31star

01:23:32and by

01:23:33going to

01:23:33our shop

01:23:34links

01:23:34under this

01:23:35video

01:23:35last but

01:23:36not least

01:23:37if you

01:23:37like this

01:23:37video

01:23:38please

01:23:38remember to

01:23:39tick the

01:23:39like button

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01:23:42that's me

01:23:43for today

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01:23:45have a

01:23:46very good

01:23:46day

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