Iran is demonstrating a new level of escalation dominance in the Middle East, launching retaliatory strikes and expanding its regional influence with precision and power ๐ฎ๐ท๐ฅ. This bold posture is sending shockwaves through global markets, with energy prices spiking and investors fearing a prolonged conflict that could cripple the global economy ๐๐ข๏ธ. As Western powers scramble to contain the fallout, the world watches anxiously โ wondering if a wider war is inevitable. World Affairs In Context delivers sharp analysis on the potential collapse of geopolitical stability as Iran asserts its might.
#IranEscalation #GlobalCrisis #MiddleEastConflict #EscalationDominance #ForbiddenNews #WorldAffairsInContext #EnergyShock #OilPricesSurge #EconomicFallout #IranIsraelTensions #USIranConfrontation #WW3Warning #GeopoliticalRisk #GlobalMarketsCrash #MiddleEastWar #StrategicStandoff #BreakingNews #MilitaryTensions #UncensoredNews #StayInformed
#IranEscalation #GlobalCrisis #MiddleEastConflict #EscalationDominance #ForbiddenNews #WorldAffairsInContext #EnergyShock #OilPricesSurge #EconomicFallout #IranIsraelTensions #USIranConfrontation #WW3Warning #GeopoliticalRisk #GlobalMarketsCrash #MiddleEastWar #StrategicStandoff #BreakingNews #MilitaryTensions #UncensoredNews #StayInformed
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00:00Welcome back everyone. Thank you for joining me today. The Strait of Harbuz is a narrow strip of
00:05water just 33 kilometers wide at its tightest point. But don't let that size fool you. This
00:12waterway may be the single most important piece of maritime real estate on earth. Following Israel's
00:20unprovoked and illegal, according to international law, aggression against Iran, Iran has the right
00:26to defend itself. And so it launched a response in retaliation. According to reports, and one of
00:33them is Al Jazeera, an Iranian lawmaker now says that Tehran may be considering shutting down the
00:39Strait of Harbuz. Could that actually happen? And if it did, what would be the consequences not just
00:45for the Middle East, but for the entire world? Let's break it down. The Strait of Harbuz lies between
00:52Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. It connects the Persian
00:58Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and from there to the wider Indian Ocean. The Strait
01:06is the only maritime gateway into the Persian Gulf. And of course, that makes it an essential choke
01:13point for global trade, especially for energy trade. And of course, I'm referring to crude oil
01:20transport. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly 20% of the world's oil
01:27consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz every single day. That is about 17 million barrels
01:34of oil per day, 20% of global consumption on a daily basis. That's about 17 million barrels of oil
01:41daily. No other waterway on the planet plays a bigger role in the global energy supply.
01:48At its narrowest, the Strait of Hormuz is only about 21 miles wide, as I mentioned earlier. But the
01:55actual shipping lanes that vessels use are even smaller than that, just two miles wide in each
02:02direction, and they are separated by a two-mile buffer. That means large oil tankers pass through
02:09a very confined space, which makes it easier, of course, to close, to blockade in unforeseen
02:17circumstances. In a time of conflict, that is a serious vulnerability. These waters are already
02:25heavily patrolled, and the risks of attack, seizure, or blockade are real, and they are escalating.
02:32We've seen it happen before. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, and by the way, many of you might
02:38remember that the United States supplied chemical weapons to the Iraqi regime at the time to wage
02:44war on Iran. But during that war, both sides targeted oil tankers and cargo ships in what became
02:52known as the Tanker War. Despite the attacks, the Strait of Hormuz was never completely shut down.
02:59More recently, in 2019, four ships were attacked near the Strait off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE.
03:08The United States blamed Iran for the attacks, and Tehran pointed to the Western interests in that
03:15event. But tensions, of course, ran high, as they typically do in the region, and global markets
03:21trembled after the attack and the impact that it had on the supply and the shipment of crude oil.
03:28Now, five years later, last year, in April of 2024, as conflict between Israel and Iran intensified,
03:36fears once again escalated that Hormuz could become another issue. Now, if Iran were to close
03:44the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market would be thrown into a complete and utter chaos. However,
03:50it should be said that the Strait of Hormuz is a legitimate card for Iran to play in the worst-case
03:56scenario. It's part of economic leverage that Iran can and arguably should use to help aggressors
04:05understand the broader implications of waging attacks on Iran and declining to practice diplomacy.
04:14Oil prices, of course, would spike, possibly overnight. Even countries that don't really import oil directly
04:20from the Persian Gulf would feel the shock, without a doubt, because oil is traded on the global market
04:26and a supply disruption anywhere affects prices everywhere. So this will have global implications.
04:34This wouldn't just raise gas prices. It would drive up shipping costs. It would drive up energy bills and,
04:40of course, inflation worldwide. And crucially, there's really no alternative route for maritime exports
04:47from the Persian Gulf. If Hormuz closes, Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE
04:55wouldn't really be able to get their oil by sea. The supply chain bottleneck would be immediate and it
05:02would be extremely severe. This brings us to a critical question. Could Iran actually pull it off?
05:08Well, technically, given the geographical details and given how narrow the Strait is in certain points,
05:16Iran would be successful. Its navy and Revolutionary Guard can block commercial vessels in the Strait
05:22using such resources as drones, as speedboats, and other means. But a full closure of the Strait
05:29would be viewed as a major escalation and Washington would be very much against it. It would likely invite
05:36military retaliation, and not just from Israel, but from the United States too. The U.S. Fifth Fleet,
05:42which is headquartered in Bahrain, maintains a very strong naval presence in the region and previously
05:49issued multiple warnings effectively threatening Iran in the event of a closure of the Strait of
05:57Hormuz, saying that it would be considered a red line by the United States. Now, this threat may not
06:03be as strong of an argument as the harm that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would inflict on
06:10Iran's energy trade partners, primarily on China. And this may serve as a major reason not to go
06:19through with using this leverage. Now, according to Iranian lawmaker Ismail Khosari, Tehran is, quote,
06:27seriously considering it in response to escalating attacks from Israel. This could be, of course,
06:33just an idea that was verbalized during an interview, or it could be a warning. But if
06:39ships can avoid the Red Sea by rerouting around Africa, of course, it's longer, but it's possible
06:47to do that in the event of a blockade of the Red Sea. But the Strait of Hormuz is a different story.
06:53There's no plan B. What we are seeing now is a dangerous dance of escalation. Israel has launched
07:01unprovoked and illegal deep strikes into Iranian territory, including attacks on military and
07:07nuclear facilities, which, by the way, is an act of terrorism under the international law. Iran has
07:13responded with missiles, but the United States provides U.S. military personnel to defend Israel
07:20against a response to its own aggression. So, needless to say, the situation has escalated
07:26quickly, and there is a lot of room for further escalation. But closing Hormuz would change the
07:34equation. It would directly impact American consumers and likely force Donald Trump to reconsider his
07:41involvement in a, what appears to be, an escalating conflict that may very well spiral into a third
07:48world war. Right now, Iran hasn't closed the Strait of Hormuz, and it's unclear if it ever will. It can
07:57if it chooses to. But the very fact that it is on the table at this time, and it is publicly discussed
08:03by lawmakers, shows how high the stakes have become as Iran's sovereignty is being threatened. This isn't
08:12just about Israel and Iran anymore. It's about the global economy, energy security, and the thin blue
08:18lines that keep oil flowing and ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. As the world watches,
08:27one of the smallest waterways on Earth may hold the power to unleash some of the biggest consequences
08:34in this escalating, escalating story. Thank you very much for watching. Please remember to show
08:41your support. Like, subscribe, and share. It goes a long way. Support my work. You can do so by joining
08:48my Patreon, and you can do so by becoming a member on my YouTube channel, as well as a subscriber on
08:54Substack. You will find those links in the description below. Thanks so much for watching, and I will see you
09:00back here tomorrow. Bye for now.