- 6/18/2025
An explosive New Atlas analysis dives deep into the raw numbers behind the US‑Israeli war posture against Iran — pitting Iranian ballistic missile volumes against the combined might of U.S. and Israeli air defenses. From launch capacity to interception rates, this data-driven breakdown exposes the strengths, vulnerabilities, and strategic gaps on both sides. Who really holds the edge in a potential full-scale conflict? Get the full picture of this high-stakes standoff that could redefine military power in the region 🌐⚠️.
#USIsraelWar #IranMissiles #AirDefense #BallisticVsAntiAircraft #TheNewAtlas #ForbiddenNews #MiddleEastTensions #MissileArsenal #IronDome #PatriotSystem #MilitaryAnalysis #DefenseNumbers #Geopolitics #StrategicBalance #WarPreparedness #MissileDefense #USMilitary #IsraeliDefense #IranianStrategy #BreakingNews #StayInformed
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#USIsraelWar #IranMissiles #AirDefense #BallisticVsAntiAircraft #TheNewAtlas #ForbiddenNews #MiddleEastTensions #MissileArsenal #IronDome #PatriotSystem #MilitaryAnalysis #DefenseNumbers #Geopolitics #StrategicBalance #WarPreparedness #MissileDefense #USMilitary #IsraeliDefense #IranianStrategy #BreakingNews #StayInformed
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NewsTranscript
00:00Today is June 18th, 2025. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran continues, and even though the United States is claiming that it may join in on this war, this has always been a U.S. war fought through Israel, just as the U.S. is waging war on Russia through Ukraine, just as the U.S. is preparing to wage war on China through the island province of Taiwan and the Southeast Asian nation of Iran.
00:30The Philippines. So let's go to the first article. Let's just try to figure out what is going on at this moment. This is from Reuters. Trump calls for Iran's unconditional surrender as Israel-Iran air war rages on. Now, this was all supposedly to disarm Iran of a nuclear weapons program. There is no evidence actually exists. I will get into the U.S.
01:00director of national intelligence saying that there are no nuclear weapons and how that fact, that reality is being ignored and a justification for war based on a deliberate life fabrication is being pushed forward instead.
01:16But let's read what this Reuters article has to say. President Donald Trump called for Iran's unconditional surrender and warned U.S. patience was wearing thin, but said there was no intention to kill Iran's leader for now, as the Israel-Iran air war raged for a fifth day.
01:34Israeli defense minister Israel Kats said, meanwhile, that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Kalamani could face the same fate as Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who was toppled in a U.S.-led invasion and hanged in 2006 after a trial.
01:51So he may suffer the same fate as another regional leader whose country was lied about by the United States, invaded and burned to the ground.
02:01I want to remind everyone, though, as President Trump is trying to go from pretending to negotiate with Iran to now openly calling for regime change and the complete surrender of Iran, this was always the plan.
02:13It was always the plan. I've said this over and over again. Going back to U.S. policy papers from 2009, which path to Persia options for a new American strategy toward Iran under chapter one?
02:30An offer Iran shouldn't refuse. This is what it says. I'm going to read this again.
02:36For those who favor regime change or a military attack on Iran, either by the United States or Israel, there is a strong argument to be made for trying this option.
02:46They're talking about posing as seeking diplomacy and citing regime change in Iran would be greatly assisted by convincing the Iranian people that their government is so ideologically blinkered that it refuses to do what is best for the people and instead clings to a policy that could only bring ruin on the nation.
03:03And that's what Israeli and soon U.S. strikes on Iran are meant to convince the Iranian people of.
03:10Their government is bringing ruination to Iran.
03:13The ideal scenario in this case would be for the United States and the international community to present a package of positive inducements so enticing that the Iranian citizenry would support the deal only to have the regime reject it.
03:26In a similar vein, any military operation against Iran will likely be very unpopular around the world.
03:31And why is that? Because everyone knows that it's it's just another lie to justify another war of aggression and required the proper international context.
03:40But to ensure the logistical support the operation would require and this this admits that even the U.S. would require logistical support in the region to carry out a large scale military operation against Iran.
03:53So obviously, Israel required logistical support, which the United States provided.
03:58The U.S. is already a direct party to this war and to minimize the blowback from it.
04:04The best way to minimize international opprobrium and maximize support, however, grudging or covert,
04:09is to strike only when there is widespread conviction that the Iranians were given but rejected a superb offer, one so good that only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for the wrong reasons would turn it down.
04:23Under those circumstances, the United States or Israel, that is that is what this whole policy paper constantly talks about, either a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran.
04:33They have obviously opted to use Israel. Could portray its operation as taken in sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community would conclude the Iranians brought it upon themselves by refusing a very good deal.
04:48And I've also pointed out elsewhere in the document a chapter titled Leave it to be be allowing or encouraging an Israeli military strike.
04:55Let's come down to here. Goal.
04:57That is exactly what we see playing out.
05:27Another article, CBS News, Trump says he wants real end to Iran's nuclear program, not just in Iran-Israel ceasefire.
05:38So again, this is all about just erasing Iran.
05:43This is another regime change operation.
05:46President Trump said he wants a real end to Iran's nuclear program, with Iran giving up entirely its enrichment activities.
05:53Elsewhere, they're demanding that they also give up their ballistic missile capabilities.
05:57Their only means of defending themselves against unprovoked strikes on Iran by both the U.S. and Israel.
06:05Israel's already repeatedly attacked Iran unprovoked.
06:10And Iran responds.
06:11And then when Iran responds, they cite that as justification for their next attack.
06:16And unfortunately, there's still people out there buying this.
06:19He said he was not just working toward a ceasefire to end the war between Iran and Israel, which has claimed at least two dozen lives in Israel and hundreds in Iran as it enters its fifth day.
06:31I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire, Mr. Trump told reporters on Air Force One after cutting short his time at the G7 summit in Canada.
06:39We're looking for better than a ceasefire.
06:43Also, while he was on Air Force One, he was asked about the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and her assessment that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.
06:56And that the Supreme Leader has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.
07:05When asked about that on Air Force One, the assessment from Gabbard that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon, Mr. Trump told reporters, I don't care what she said.
07:15I think they're very close to having them.
07:17So it doesn't matter what the actual evidence suggests.
07:20He thinks, he says he thinks, they have nuclear weapons, so they're going to proceed with war anyway.
07:28And this is what the U.S. has repeatedly done all throughout the region, all along Iran's borders, which is why Iran is seeking a means to defend itself in the first place.
07:36And you will still see Americans and other people across the West and people who are pro-West say somehow Iran is the problem.
07:45So Iran has not invaded a single nation.
07:48This entire 21st century has not invaded a single nation.
07:50The U.S. has gone all the way around to the other side of the planet and invaded multiple nations all across the Middle East, burning them to the ground.
07:59And they now exist as failed states as a result.
08:03Now, I want to talk about the actual fighting.
08:07And I want to show you this article and for people who have been following my coverage of Ukraine and are familiar with Western propaganda supporting Ukraine, this narrative is going to sound very, very familiar.
08:18This is from the BBC.
08:20And this is a reoccurring theme all across the Western media.
08:23Israel's smaller, sophisticated military opposes larger Iran.
08:28Israel's conflict with Iran may look like a mismatch on paper, a nation of 9 million, taking on a giant of the Middle East, home to 88 million.
08:37But Israel's formidable and sophisticated military forces with an arsenal largely, but not exclusively provided by the United States, are enabling it to overpower a much larger enemy.
08:49Except absolutely every military capability Israel possesses is a product of U.S. assistance.
08:58The U.S. not only just hands them weapons that they are using to carry out this war of aggression against Iran, all of the supposed Israeli systems that they're using, including these missile defense systems, were all funded by the U.S. government and many of them co-developed, co-produced with the United States.
09:20This very same narrative we heard about how Ukraine is smaller than Russia, but their military is more professional, they have better technology, they're smarter, they're better organized.
09:33When in reality, it's just an extension of U.S. military power, which is why it is persisting in this war being waged against Russia.
09:42Again, by the U.S. through Ukraine, the same goes for Israel fighting Iran.
09:48It is a U.S. war being fought through Israel against Iran.
09:52And I'm going to talk to you all about what the U.S. has done to help Israel specifically fight this war,
10:00and also all of the military systems they are using in this war, how they are a result of U.S. backing.
10:12Let's go to ABC News.
10:14Trump tells ABC Israel strikes on Iran excellent and warns more to come.
10:20And he knows because the United States planned these, organized them, and worked with Israel to implement them.
10:27A source familiar with the intelligence on the strike told ABC News,
10:33the U.S. provided exquisite intelligence and will help defend Israel if needed.
10:38And we're watching that happen right now, again, in real time.
10:40And when they say exquisite intelligence, they mean intelligence Israel could not carry these strikes out without.
10:46So this could not have happened unless the U.S. assisted them in it.
10:50That is what they are telling you, especially against ballistic missiles, which are expected to be launched from Iran.
10:55So that's what the U.S. is going to help Israel defend against.
10:58So far, Trump had told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that the U.S. knew what was going on
11:05and was aware of Israel's plans to attack again because it is a U.S. plan.
11:10It is a U.S. war fought through Israel.
11:12I hear people make the argument that Israel can decide these things on their own.
11:18But when you really, really think about it, you go back to first principles.
11:22Iran is not an actual threat to Israel.
11:26So Israel pursuing a war against Iran does not serve its actual best interest in any shape, form or way.
11:32Iran does not want war with Israel.
11:34Iran does not want war with the United States.
11:37America's own policy papers, Engineering an Unprovoked War of Aggression Against Iran,
11:41admitted page after page after page.
11:43And I've covered this for years and years.
11:46This paper by the Rand Corporation, also 2009, admits that even if Iran had nuclear weapons,
11:55they would use it as a deterrent, not to unilaterally strike Israel or the United States,
12:00because they would know that it would be certain self-destruction as well.
12:04So Israel has no actual real reason to wage a war with Iran.
12:08It is on the other side of the region, and it poses no threat to Israel or its actual interests.
12:14What it does pose a threat to is U.S. primacy over the region, its ability to control the region,
12:20to topple governments, assume control over these nations, politically capture them,
12:26and use them to further its influence both over the region and around the world.
12:31And I'm going to play this clip for you of Steve Bannon and General Mike Flynn
12:38openly talking about what this is really all about.
12:43Let's listen.
12:44China, China, China.
12:45That's what I want your audience to understand.
12:48So a couple of things.
12:50Israel is fighting their war, and we are, in fact, supporting it.
12:54And it's really protecting Western civilization from a psychotic regime that wanted nuclear weapons
13:01and was very, very close to having them.
13:03Number two, we have to allow Israel to finish the job that when it does, as it does,
13:09as it is in the midst of finishing this job, and it's going to take a little bit,
13:13it will allow the United States to fully shift to focusing on China.
13:18The third thing is there's a positive—this is really important—
13:22positive U.S. relationship with an Iranian regime.
13:27So whatever the regime is that rises up out of the ashes, if we have a positive relationship
13:32with that regime, that really benefits the United States of America, particularly against
13:36China, and it weakens China.
13:38Number four, a victory by Israel.
13:41Okay?
13:41And I'm not talking about, you know, American troops and all this other stuff, but a victory
13:45by Israel, that it really allows us the expansion.
13:50It allows us sort of the expansion of the Abraham Accords, right?
13:54This is a signature Trump policy.
13:56Steve, you're very familiar with that.
13:58Signature Trump policy.
13:59So it allows an expansion of that.
14:01Number five, the defeat of Iran and stabilizing that region, stabilizing—because Iran is the
14:06most destabilizing country in that region right now.
14:10Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah, et cetera, et cetera.
14:12They control all of Iraq right now, other than Kurdistan.
14:16So I want people to understand that.
14:17Just look at the statement that was put out by the Iraqi prime minister today.
14:23It's unbelievable.
14:25Number six, establishing—or this victory, a victory by Israel establishes the perception,
14:32if not the reality, of U.S. global dominance and certainly Israeli dominance in that region.
14:39So that is what the policy papers laid out years ago.
14:44That is what people are now—as the mask falls off, that is what they are saying this
14:49is all about.
14:49It has nothing to do with the nuclear program.
14:51It has nothing to do with some perceived threat.
14:54Iran is opposing U.S. hegemony in the region.
14:57It needs to be removed as an obstacle so the U.S. can control the region, politically control
15:02the region, control the region's foreign policy, cut their ties and their cooperation with China
15:07to isolate China so that the U.S. can then work on subordinating, subjugating China as
15:14well.
15:15Same goes for Russia.
15:16When Iran retaliated against Israel by firing ballistic missiles towards Tel Aviv, a U.S.
15:21official confirmed to ABC News that the U.S. was assisting in shooting the down missiles
15:26targeting Israel.
15:28So the U.S. is a party to this war.
15:31They provided Israel with intelligence, also logistical support.
15:35The attack would be impossible to conduct without.
15:37And now they are participating in the fallout of this unprovoked strike on Iran by trying
15:46to blunt Iran's ability to defend itself at this juncture.
15:50Now let's talk about these weapon systems that we keep hearing about.
15:54Israel's Arrow 3 missile defense system, Israel's David Sling, Israel's Iron Dome.
16:01All of these systems are paid for by the United States, admittedly.
16:04This is from 2023, Israel's Arrow 3 missile defense sale to Germany gets U.S. Nod.
16:10Why do they need a U.S. Nod to sell their own weapon system to Germany?
16:15Because the U.S. paid for it and helped develop it.
16:18The sale was made possible after U.S. Department of State officials notified senior defense leaders
16:24here of the approval.
16:26The step is necessary because the system is a code development between Washington's missile
16:31defense agency and the Israeli missile defense organization, led by a local contractor,
16:38Israel Aerospace Industries.
16:40The Arrow 3 weapon is designed to intercept ballistic missiles during their flight paths
16:44outside of Earth's atmosphere.
16:47Its commercial production began following an intercept test in December 2015.
16:51And so people are constantly talking about the Iron Dome as if it's the entire missile defense
16:57system of Israel, but it is just one layer of it.
17:01The Arrow 3 and David Sling, also Patriots and THAAD systems provided by the U.S., as well
17:07as naval anti-air and anti-missile systems are all being used as layered defenses against
17:15these incoming Iranian ballistic missiles and also drones, by the way.
17:19So let's go to the next article.
17:22This is Breaking Defense.
17:24Israel orders more Iron Dome interceptors using new tranche of U.S. funding.
17:29So everything is being built and made possible, enabled, co-developed, funded by the United
17:35States.
17:36The summation of Israel's military power is simply an extension of American military power
17:42in the Middle East under a foreign flag.
17:45The Israeli Ministry of Defense said it signed its first procurement deal using a recent
17:52tranche of U.S. aid funds to buy more interceptors for Israel's Iron Dome batteries, one of three
17:58tiers of Israel's multi-layered air defense system.
18:01It has been used widely in the last 15 months of war on multiple fronts to intercept rockets,
18:07drones, and other projectiles.
18:08Remember, this is an article from January 2025.
18:12That's the Iron Dome.
18:13Next.
18:15U.S. boosts Israel defense aid by 5.2 billion for laser tech, Iron Dome, David Slings.
18:21The additional 5.2 billion is focused on defense, including the Iron Dome, David Slings, and
18:25advanced laser system.
18:27And so all of these capabilities paid for by the United States, made possible, enabled by
18:32the United States so that Israel can carry out wars of aggression on behalf of the U.S.,
18:38take responsibility for the war, and absorb all retaliation for the war.
18:42I think it's very important that people understand that point.
18:46Now, let's talk about the determining factors that could decide the outcome of this fighting.
18:55Here's an article from CNN.
18:58One number could define the Iran-Israel conflict's outcome.
19:03What number are they talking about?
19:05Of course, they're talking about the number of Iranian missiles that are available and
19:12can be launched at Israel.
19:15And the CNN article says the outcome of the defining conflict between Iran and Israel may
19:22depend on one simple number, which is at very best a rough estimate.
19:28Israeli military data and expert analysis says Iran has fired about 700 of its medium-range
19:34ballistic missiles at Israel over the past 14 months, leaving it with anything between 300
19:42to 1,300 left in its stockpile.
19:45This remaining arsenal is subject to Israel's fierce air assaults of the past five days, with
19:50the IDF, saying it has targeted at least a third of the surface-to-first-surface launchers
19:56that fire these missiles, possibly further reducing Iran's ability to strike back at Israel.
20:01Even the language of this CNN article is admitting that Iran is striking back, not striking at, striking
20:07back.
20:09The depletion of its arsenal may compound Iran's desire to negotiate its way out of the conflict
20:15and also intensify the ferocity of the Israeli campaign in the coming days, analysts have
20:20said, as Israeli air power finds itself almost unchallenged, and Iran's nightly assaults on
20:26Israeli cities seem recently to have ebbed.
20:30Now, I have noticed over the last day or so that there are far fewer Iranian missiles being
20:34fired, and that could signify a problem with the availability or the ability to launch these
20:46missiles.
20:46They could be out of them.
20:47They could be out of launchers.
20:49There could be any number of problems with these missiles that are slowing down the pace
20:55of their strikes back at Israel, which is a means of raising the cost for Israel and the
21:02United States for continuing this war.
21:05And I'll explain what I mean by that in just a bit.
21:08Let's continue with this article.
21:11It talks more about the numbers, including estimates by U.S. and Israeli sources.
21:15Few reliable estimates for Iran's stockpile exists, although U.S. CENTCOM's commander, General
21:21Keith McKenzie, said in 2023 that they had more than 3,000 missiles up different ranges.
21:26A senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, again, another U.S. corporate
21:33financier-funded think tank engineering wars of aggression around the globe, they said likely
21:391,000 to 2,000 of these were medium-range, capable of spanning the 1,400 kilometers between
21:45Iran and Israel.
21:47He called the estimate at best a back-of-the-envelope calculation.
21:50According to the IDF, Iran used 120 medium-range ballistic missiles in its April 13th attack last
21:57year on Israel, another 200 on October 1st.
22:01You can see how measured Iran's response has been to Israeli aggression.
22:07U.S. enabled Israeli aggression each time, starting out with a smaller number of missiles.
22:13Then the second attack on Iran itself, they responded with more missiles.
22:17And now they're firing even more missiles.
22:21So 120 in April, 200 in October, and now a total of 380 in the past five days.
22:29This tally would deplete its overall known arsenal by a total of 700, but whether it leaves Tehran
22:35with an existential crisis over its missile deterrence, again, they are calling it a deterrence.
22:40It's just so much more blatant this time, isn't it?
22:42It depends on both the size of its initial stockpile and what damage Israel has done to
22:48Iran's military infrastructure since it began striking across the country on Friday.
22:53The few glimpses of the damage done to Iran's air defenses and missile production from Israeli
22:59strikes on October 26th have revealed a significant toll.
23:02So we have Admiral Tony Radekin, the U.K.'s chief of the defense staff.
23:09Remember, these are the same people who constantly say Ukraine is winning the U.S. proxy war against
23:16Russia.
23:18He said in a December speech that 100 Israeli aircraft had fired as many missiles from as
23:23many miles away and took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air defense systems, which is obviously
23:29not true because they're using their air defense systems right now.
23:32It has destroyed Iran's ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year.
23:38So the first claim is patently false.
23:41The second claim, we have no idea what Iran's missile production capacity actually is.
23:47But recently, Israel has amplified the threat that Iran's missile production poses.
23:52Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, not known for saying anything even closely related to reality.
24:00He said on Friday as Israel launched its air campaign that Iran had sped up its manufacture
24:06of ballistic missiles to 300 a month, which could leave them with 20,000 in six years.
24:12He did not provide evidence for the claim, nor does he provide evidence of any of his claims.
24:17Just please keep that in mind.
24:18These sources they're citing are highly unreliable.
24:22The article also says the 2024 strikes had destroyed the main facilities for manufacturing
24:27ballistic missile motors in Iran, creating severe limitations to the country's supply chain.
24:32Still, he notes that potential assistance from China in the coming months could boost production
24:36again.
24:37So I've had many people ask me, Brian, what can Russia, China, Pakistan, and others do?
24:43They could provide parts for ballistic missile production.
24:47They could provide actual ballistic missiles and launchers so that Iran can, as CNN refers
24:55to it, maintain their missile deterrent.
24:57And deterrent means you are defending yourself.
24:59You're not threatening anybody.
25:01You're not attacking anyone.
25:02You are deterring them from attacking you.
25:05CNN said that, not me.
25:07That is their language, not mine.
25:08Now, there are also these extensive networks of tunnels.
25:18How extensive are they?
25:19How deep do they go?
25:20How many of them are there?
25:21How many missiles do they have hidden in them?
25:24Where are they hidden?
25:25And are there other facilities where missiles are stockpiled that need to be moved to these
25:31tunnels to be staged and then deployed?
25:34I don't know.
25:35I don't think anyone has an answer to that.
25:38I don't have access to that information myself.
25:41That could be a reason why there are pauses or a diminishing number of missiles because
25:47missiles they had ready to go have been launched and now they're staging the next batch.
25:53Maybe, or maybe they're just out of missiles.
25:56Maybe Israel has destroyed their stockpiles or destroyed enough of their launchers to hinder
26:01large-scale retaliatory missile strikes.
26:07Here's another article along the same theme.
26:12Israel-Iran conflict may last only as long as their missiles hold out.
26:16The intensity of Iran's barrages seem to be waning as it uses up its stock.
26:20Israel, meantime, is running through its supply of expensive missile interceptors.
26:25I have been talking about this for years.
26:27In relation to the U.S. proxy war on Russia and Ukraine, the total number of Patriot missile
26:35interceptors, which are capable, supposedly on paper, of intercepting ballistic missiles
26:40is less than 650 a year.
26:45Russia alone produces more Iskander ballistic missiles every single year.
26:51And the United States and its allies have been emptying out their Patriot missile interceptor
26:56inventories, sending it to Ukraine.
26:59Everything that can be spared is being sent there.
27:01They are incapable of producing interceptors faster than they're being spent in Ukraine.
27:05And there is a critical shortage worldwide now because of that.
27:08As a matter of fact, there was a critical shortage even before that.
27:12If people remember, the U.S. was waging war on Yemen through Saudi proxies.
27:17And Saudi Arabia was using U.S. Patriot missile launchers.
27:21And they were running out of interceptors.
27:22And the U.S. was incapable of supplying them with more.
27:25They had to borrow interceptors from neighboring nations,
27:28also using U.S.-made Patriot missile, air and missile defense systems.
27:34There is this existing shortage.
27:36It was compounded by Ukraine.
27:38And now it is being astronomically accelerated amid this conflict with Iran.
27:45The Washington Post article says,
27:47Israeli intelligence officials estimated that Iran had about 2,000 missiles capable of traveling
27:511,200 miles to hit Israel.
27:53But a significant fraction were destroyed the moment Israel's covert operatives in Iran
27:58and its fighter jets launched a surprise attack early Friday, kicking off the conflict.
28:03Again, they are admitting Israel provoked this war.
28:06Since then, Israeli military officials say that Iran has launched roughly 400 missiles
28:10from its remaining stockpile.
28:13This article is from today.
28:16And Israeli strikes have eliminated 120 or one-third of Iran's missile launchers.
28:23Moreover, Israeli officials announced Monday that they had obtained air superiority over
28:29Tehran ahead of schedule, meaning they could further limit the Iranian force's ability
28:34to carry out launches.
28:36Already, the intensity of Iran's barrages appeared to be sharply dropping.
28:40After firing more than 150 missiles on the first night of the conflict, Friday, Iran fired
28:45a barrage of just 10 on Tuesday afternoon.
28:49Israeli analysts cautioned that more than half of Iran's arsenal remains intact and an unknown
28:55quantity of missiles may be hidden in underground depots.
28:59And while Israel has significantly degraded Iran's attack capabilities, mounting a defense
29:03has been costly for Israel.
29:05Now, they're talking about how much all of this costs, but really money is no issue because
29:12the U.S. is paying for all of it.
29:14Money for Israel.
29:15It's no issue because the U.S. is funding all of this.
29:18And I should say the American taxpayers are funding all of this without resupplies from
29:22the United States, which are not available because the U.S. simply does not make enough
29:26of them.
29:27Or greater involvement by U.S. forces, some assessments project Israel can maintain its
29:32missile defense for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, which
29:38is why I say Iran's tempo, its pace of attacks dropping should be an issue of concern.
29:48There's many reasons why it might happen.
29:49But if it's happening because they're out of missiles or they're out of launchers or some
29:53other serious problem, that does not bode well for Iran.
29:58There could be other explanations for this.
30:02And they still have missiles and they will continue firing them.
30:05They're stockpiling them to see how large the U.S. involvement will be.
30:10I don't know, but you have to accept the possibility of all of these options.
30:17You cannot just pick and choose the ones you wish were true.
30:21So 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, said an individual
30:27briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, adding that as early as later this week, Israel's
30:34systems may only be able to intercept a smaller proportion of missiles because of the need
30:39to ration defense munitions.
30:41That is already happening.
30:42We see that already happening.
30:43They will need to select what they want to intercept, said the individual who spoke on the condition
30:51of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.
30:54The system is already overwhelmed, which is what I just said.
30:57It is already overwhelmed.
30:58Then it talks about Israel's layered integrated air defense system, which I just mentioned a
31:03little bit earlier.
31:04Israel employs a multi-layered air defense system consisting of its famous Iron Dome, which
31:11intercepts lower-altitude rockets, small, slower projectiles, the David's sling and arrow systems,
31:18and expensive Patriot and Thad missile systems delivered from the United States, and also U.S.
31:24systems operated by the U.S. across the region.
31:27Then it talks about losses on each side.
31:30They claim Israel has imposed greater casualties on the Iranian side.
31:37And they even talk about, in several cases, Israeli missiles and drones have struck densely
31:43packed apartment buildings to kill Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists in
31:48their homes.
31:48So they are destroying entire apartment buildings full of civilians, men, women, and children
31:53who are not participating in the hostilities in any shape, form, or way.
31:57They're killing all of these people to assassinate a single individual, a military officer asleep
32:04with their family, or a scientist who is not even part of the military.
32:09That is a war crime.
32:10That is an obvious war crime that the Washington Post is admitting Israel is carrying out.
32:16And that should surprise nobody.
32:17That is what Israel has been doing for many years.
32:20That is what the United States has been doing for many years.
32:23That is what the U.S. was revealed to have been doing in Yemen.
32:27Then, remember the signal chat leak, and senior U.S. officials were admitting that they were
32:34striking and destroying and taking down entire apartment buildings to kill one suspected Ansar
32:41Allah official.
32:42And then it says, Israel also struck the headquarters of Iran's state broadcaster after Defense
32:47Minister Israel Katz pledged that the mouthpiece of Iranian propaganda would disappear.
32:53So, they're killing journalists.
32:55They're targeting and killing journalists.
32:57A war crime.
32:59And you only attack a nation's communications when you're trying to achieve regime change.
33:05Not any sort of disarmament of its supposed nuclear weapons program.
33:10It's when you're trying to topple the entire country.
33:13Then you go after civilian infrastructure, communications.
33:18And, of course, killing journalists helps facilitate that.
33:21But after the strike, the Israeli, the Israel Defense Forces said it had targeted an Iranian
33:28military communication center, but did not offer evidence of a military presence at the
33:33location.
33:34So, the Israel and the United States doing what they always do.
33:39And, again, just the casual frankness in these Western reports and people reading it
33:45and still framing this as a necessary war against Iran they view as the problem.
33:54And then they interviewed another expert who says Iran's missile capabilities will continue
33:59to decline because Israel is now targeting its production facilities.
34:03Assuming the regime doesn't change or assuming they don't agree to give up their missiles as
34:08part of a ceasefire, they're going to have a huge problem reconstituting their ballistic
34:12missile forces, that is going to be a big result of how much Israel is able to damage and destroy
34:20their production facilities for missiles.
34:22So, as I said in the very beginning, this is a numbers game between the number of missiles
34:28missiles, Iran is capable of firing at Israel in defense against Israeli strikes on Iran, which
34:37include targeting missile production, targeting launchers, targeting stockpiles of the missiles,
34:43and, of course, all of the other targets Israel is striking at.
34:48Israel's air defense systems and Iran's air defense systems, their degradation is also going to factor
34:56into which nation is able to hold out longer in this conflict.
35:02And, of course, Israel is an extension of U.S. military power in the region.
35:09So, even if I hear people saying,
35:12Iran needs to break Israel's back.
35:15You cannot break Israel's back because it has no back.
35:19It is a tentacle coming off of the United States.
35:23And so, if you want to break the back of what is responsible for all of this, you need to break
35:28the back of the United States, which Iran is incapable of doing.
35:31What it can do is survive.
35:35Now, people panic if Iran runs out of missiles, if Israel dismantles its air defense system and
35:43its missile launch capability, people are panicking, if Iran is able to maintain unity, social, political
35:49unity, and their military is able to continue fighting without air defense and without missile
35:57capabilities like Yemen has been doing for years and years, they could still fight for their survival.
36:05It is still possible.
36:06We just have to wait and find out.
36:10And one last point I want to touch on is this narrative that I hear being spread to justify
36:18war with Iran, U.S. war with Iran.
36:22This notion that the Iranian government is some sort of radical Islamist regime that simply hates
36:30Jews and wants to exterminate them.
36:33And that is why they are at odds with Israel.
36:37And here is the Jerusalem Post, Israeli media, here to tell you that that is not true because
36:41the largest population of Jews in the Middle East outside of Israel live in Iran itself.
36:48This is from June 16th, 2025.
36:51So, just a day or two ago, Iran's Jewish leaders call Israel strikes savage Zionist aggression,
36:58urge daily missile salvos.
37:00And it's all about how the leaders in these Jewish communities across Iran are opposed to
37:07a foreign nation dropping bombs on their head.
37:10Who could have imagined?
37:12And down here, it says Jews in Iran, their president in Iran dates back more than 3,000 years.
37:20And they put the Jewish population at around 3,000, although it says others put it at around 8,000 or even 10,000.
37:28So, there's thousands and thousands of Jews living in Iran.
37:32And then I found this older article also from a Jewish online magazine.
37:36All of these are pro-Israel, pro-Jewish publications, how Iran's Jews survive in Mullah's world.
37:45And it turns out they seem to be surviving quite well, quite comfortably, well accommodated.
37:51And this is all about these very, very different Jewish communities in Iran, across Iran.
37:59It's not just one community walled off somewhere.
38:02They have communities in major cities all across Iran.
38:06And this is a person talking about their experience in Iran, traveling from one community to the other.
38:14And it talks about the history of Jews in Iran and how Jews in Iran today live.
38:20And right here, it says, and Jewish life in Iran can be rich.
38:23In Tehran alone, there are 13 active synagogues, five Jewish schools, two kindergartens, and a 100-bed Jewish hospital.
38:30And they're talking about an individual that they were interviewing who serves as a director at that hospital.
38:37There are active communities in several other cities.
38:40And then it lists all of the cities with institutions of their own.
38:45And the article goes on.
38:47And it has pros and cons.
38:49It says good things and bad things.
38:51And I challenge you to read through this.
38:53If you have this preconceived notion that Iran hates Jews and that's why they want to destroy Israel,
38:59read through this article, do your own research online.
39:02And for people out there who are wondering what they can do to fight back against this push for war,
39:08take articles like this from the Jerusalem Post, this from Forward, and many other articles published over the years.
39:16When you see people repeating this lie, take these articles and post them.
39:20Take screenshots of them, post a link, and challenge people to read them
39:25and explain how their war propaganda can coexist with the reality documented by so many pro-Israel and pro-Jewish sources.
39:35So that is where things are right now.
39:38We have to keep a very close eye on this.
39:40We have to follow the facts no matter where they go and no matter how uncomfortable they make us feel.
39:47Tuning in to messages, telling you what you want to hear is not going to help in the long run,
39:53especially if things are going bad.
39:56You're going to be unpleasantly surprised.
39:58How many people were claiming that Syria would not collapse late last year when the U.S. was pushing that final push
40:08to overthrow the Syrian government to pave the way for this very war with Iran?
40:14Many people clung to that delusion that the Syrian government would prevail, and it is now collapsed.
40:21How many people on October 7th were cheering on Hamas, declaring Israel is done, Israel is done,
40:32only for that attack to precipitate the flattening of Gaza,
40:37the killing of thousands and thousands of innocent people,
40:41and the creation of a permissive environment across the entire region
40:45that allowed the U.S. and Israel to dismember Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
40:49and topple the Syrian government and shape the battlefield regionally for this war on Iran itself.
40:58In hindsight, all of these people were wrong, and all of these people were wrong
41:03because they picked and choose what they wanted to hear, and they threw everything out.
41:08They were not following the facts no matter where they brought them or however uncomfortable it made them.
41:14As an analyst, as analysts, if people are analysts, that is their job to do that.
41:20And people in the public, you need to be informed.
41:24You need to be informed to make decisions about your position on policies
41:30and your support or opposition to them.
41:35So it's very important that accurate information is put out there.
41:38It's important that people take the responsibility seriously
41:42to find out what is actually happening rather than indulge in what they wish was happening.
41:47I will continue keeping an eye on this.
41:49If you thought this video was useful, please like and share.
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42:03In the video description will be all of these articles that I reference,
42:07including the two policy papers that I read from,
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42:39That is all greatly appreciated.
42:40That is what makes this work possible.
42:42So thank you.
42:43And as always, thank you for watching.
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