- 6/18/2025
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00:00Major League Baseball, a full slate today, guys.
00:03First game starting at 4, 10 p.m. Eastern.
00:05That's Boston and Seattle.
00:06Late night action, that's San Diego, and that's Los Angeles at 10, 10.
00:10And that's the spot that we're going to get started here in just a few moments.
00:13Now, the evolution, as we like to say, of the Major League Baseball season does change.
00:16You know, differences from late March into early April.
00:20The weather usually starts to change by late April, gets a little bit better in May,
00:23and then here you're sitting in June.
00:25And as we just talked with Keith Stewart,
00:26there is a golf tournament in Connecticut this weekend, which is in the Northeast.
00:29Which we're located here.
00:31Hot, steamy conditions.
00:32I love to see that in baseball because typically it means that the ball travels further.
00:37Now, understandably, just a few days ago, Andrew McCutcheon, now of the Pittsburgh Pirates,
00:41says he heard from a good source that, yes, the Major League Baseball,
00:44baseballs are a bit messed up this year.
00:47There are high seams, creating more drag, so less home runs.
00:50As a guy that absolutely loves taking team totals to the over, RBI props,
00:55home run props, base hitting props, we don't like to see that.
00:58We want those juice baseballs to come into the equation.
01:00Last night, a good night for those totals, and we'll see if that happens again tonight.
01:04Let's take a look.
01:0510-10 tonight, Joe Ranieri.
01:07That's the Padres and the Dodgers.
01:09Kolek versus Sheehan.
01:10A total, I should have said a side, that opened up here in Fandloon, New Jersey.
01:14Around that minus 160 price.
01:15That's gone now.
01:16You see the graphic?
01:17It's 172.
01:18It's even higher now to a minus 184 price for those Dodgers tonight.
01:22The total, which opened up at nine, now sits at nine and a half across the board.
01:26We're expecting more runs, just like we got last night, Joe, in Los Angeles tonight.
01:31How are we feeling about that?
01:36Kind of hard to look any other way, Donnie, when you look at it,
01:39because Kolek, none of these guys actually bring any sort of shutdown pitching right now.
01:46Bullpens got burned last night a little bit.
01:48It feels like another over.
01:49If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
01:52Yeah, if we're looking at the pitching matchups here tonight, too, like Stephen Kolek,
01:55his last 30 days, Joe, 27 innings pitched, five games that he started, a 433 ERA,
02:01but a 5XFIP number.
02:03You don't want that here in Dodger land.
02:05Those guys can certainly, I used to call them, you know,
02:07that upper deck swing that they have in just launch angle city here.
02:11That could get caught up.
02:12Shoya Otani tonight looks like a pretty good shot there for an RBI.
02:16Sheehan on the other side, we'll see how long he goes,
02:17that the Padres can wake up.
02:19But also what I'm interested, Joe, I ask you this question,
02:21not about the game itself, but feeding into it.
02:23Are we going to have more guys plunking more guys,
02:26managers getting ejected in the bad blood tonight?
02:28Because that does affect sometimes the starting pitcher and how long he might go.
02:33Yeah, well, one would hope to make it real interesting.
02:37We know these teams don't like one another, Donnie,
02:40so it wouldn't shock me if we get a little extra curricular activity for sure.
02:43Division rival.
02:44I would like to see that.
02:45Yeah, we'd like to see that.
02:46I mean, everybody loves a good little division rivalry.
02:48A couple guys getting plunked here.
02:50As long as nobody gets injured, maybe a little Donnie Brooke at the mound.
02:53Could happen, could be some fun.
02:54And these two teams obviously have a dislike for each other,
02:57but a good game tonight anticipated with a lot of runs.
02:59That's what we'd like to see.
03:01Let's get to another game here.
03:028-0-5, let's get it back to the Midwest, and that's Milwaukee and Chicago.
03:07Mizorowski makes his second start in Major League Baseball after a really good start.
03:10Number one, going up against the veteran Jamison Tayo, 9-57, 9-58 on the rotation.
03:15An 8-0-5 start tonight.
03:17The favorite here, Chicago, opened up around that minus 140 price.
03:21You see the graphic, minus 148.
03:23It's actually across the board, currently sitting at an opening number of eight, still sits at eight.
03:28Rain in the forecast today for the Chicago Cubs game, and a wind blowing in at double digits
03:32could be an ugly atmosphere in the Windy City tonight, Joe.
03:37Yeah, I mean, the first time the Cubs have scored more than four runs, it feels like, in a while.
03:42Last night there, Brewers bats kind of couldn't get the big hit when they needed it.
03:47Yeah.
03:48Feel like an under again, Donnie, to me here.
03:52Tayon's been much better at home than on the road, so I'll look at the under in this one again.
03:56Yeah, I mean, Mizorowski, again, only five innings pitch.
03:59If you remember that game, it almost looked like he twisted his ankle on the mound that was taken out.
04:03They said it was a calf cramp.
04:04Something to keep maybe an eye on tonight, but he didn't give up any earned runs there.
04:08And Jamison Tayon, 33 innings pitch, Joe, through five starts over the past month.
04:13How about a 191 ERA?
04:15Now, granted, his XFIP number is higher at 4.24,
04:17but we know there's no ballpark in America in Major League Baseball that's more affected
04:21than the wind blowing in or out.
04:23It's Wrigley Field.
04:24The wind is blowing in.
04:25I'm not so sure, Joe.
04:27I'm in agreement with you.
04:28Looking at the under in that game of eight runs probably makes the most sense.
04:31And also, how much does this game need to get played?
04:33Does it get in in time here?
04:35Are the umps rushing?
04:35Because for me, when I always see weather in the forecast,
04:38that means that a strike zone gets expanded.
04:40So me as well, I'm looking towards an under in that spot here.
04:43Now, let's move it to an interesting scenario that's going to take place tonight in Atlanta.
04:48You saw yesterday, the Mets got out to the hot start, blew a lead late,
04:52lost a game to the Braves, looking to climb back into the playoff race here through the
04:56early summer parts.
04:57We take a look at Paul Blackburn on the mound, who's actually very good in his first start
05:01back.
05:01Chris Sales on the mound.
05:02He's a monster favorite tonight.
05:04Open up around a minus 180 price, as you see the graphic, but that price now sits slightly
05:08higher at a minus 184.
05:10The total in this game opened up at eight and a half, still sits at eight and a half.
05:14Four straight losses for the New York Metropolitans.
05:18Will it be five straight losses, but also, would you be willing to pay that price here
05:22on the Atlanta Braves?
05:24Yeah, I don't know how you can.
05:26I mean, listen, the struggle for the Mets on the road, well documented here, Donnie.
05:31They absolutely threw up on themselves last night in that spot.
05:35The bullpen melted.
05:37But really, should Atlanta be this kind of favorite?
05:39I don't care who's pitching against anybody.
05:42Feels like all the value is on the New York Mets here tonight.
05:45That's the way I would look.
05:46Yeah, take a look at Blackburn, because I remember a couple of starts ago, which was
05:50a game he took on the Dodgers.
05:52He's probably going to get torched in that game.
05:53Pitched really well, but then he goes back to being Paul Blackburn.
05:57You take a look at him coming in against Colorado.
06:00Four innings pitched in, three earned runs, and seven hits in that game.
06:03You see him pitching against Tampa Bay.
06:05A third of an inning.
06:07Five batters, four earned runs, four hits given up in that spot.
06:11So a pitcher that you're probably not all that confident with.
06:14I do think Atlanta has a legitimate chance to bounce back in this one.
06:18And even if we take it a step further, right?
06:20You look at the New York Mets.
06:21Like, yeah, you don't want the slide to go too long, but you're still in first place.
06:24The Phillies lost yesterday.
06:25You're like 10, over 10 games clear of both, excuse me, of the Atlanta Braves.
06:30But this seems to think like, and again, you have Chris Sale on the mountain against
06:33Blackburn.
06:34You're going to get Spencer Strider.
06:36You don't want to give the Braves any life at all.
06:38You could basically turn the lights out on that city in the month of June, and you might
06:43allow them to creep back into it.
06:44So looking at the series as a whole, it looks like the Mets would just say, here, take this
06:49game tonight.
06:49Like, here, this is your game, and get energized up, and oh, well.
06:54Still don't trust the Braves' bats, though.
06:56That's the problem here.
06:58And what happens now if Soto actually can jumpstart maybe the offense here of the Mets?
07:04It's Atlanta should not be laying these kinds of numbers against anybody.
07:09And I love Chris Sale, but sorry, not buying it.
07:14Yeah, take a look at 82-degree temperatures down in Atlanta, which is good hitting weather
07:17here.
07:18A crosswind, five miles an hour from the right foul pole to left, not really that big of
07:21an issue.
07:22But again, Blackburn, not a strikeout guy.
07:2443 batters that he's faced on the season, a 14% strikeout rate.
07:27That will get you in trouble.
07:29Weighted on base percentage against, if we combine lefty and righty batters, Joe, 365.
07:33That will get you in trouble.
07:35You take a look at the fly ball percentage, which he's pretty good with at this point.
07:38Line drive percentage still a little bit higher.
07:40But also, you look at that Braves lineup against right-handed pitching.
07:43It hasn't been that great over the past 30 days, Joe.
07:45You take a look at Ronald Acuna, very good numbers.
07:47Austin Riley, decent numbers.
07:49Matt Olsen, good numbers.
07:50The rest of that lineup, Marcelo Zuna, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, along
07:55with Nick Allen, all underperforming here with weighted on base percentages and ISO power
07:59numbers against right-handed pitching.
08:00You flip it over to the Mets, it's not great.
08:02And by the way, Chris Sale is a really good pitcher.
08:05His last 103 batters, Joe, that he faced, how about an 057 ISO and a weighted on base
08:09percentage of 225?
08:11That's fantastic.
08:12Francisco Lindor, switch hitter, very good numbers against lefties.
08:15You take a look at Soto, left-handed batter, very good number against lefties.
08:19And then Pete Alonso in the middle of that lineup hitting close to 300.
08:21And also, his last 27 at-bats against left-handed pitching has been very good at a 217 ISO and
08:27a weighted on base percentage of 341.
08:29But much like I just talked about the Braves, end of the lineup, same thing with the Mets.
08:33Nimmo, Taylor, Mauricio, Alvarez, and Acuna giving in nothing over there.
08:37Maybe it's an under?
08:38We'll find out.
08:39More Major League Baseball topics on the way next.
08:42One team gets shut out one night, one team gets shut out the next night.
08:48That's what we're getting there, Boston and Seattle.
08:50They're going to get the cards started today, Joe, when you're at 410 Eastern, which means
08:54110 out there in the Pacific Northwest.
08:57It's Boston and it's Seattle, 961, 962 on the rotation.
09:01Crochet, the lefty taking on Luis Castillo.
09:04If we look at the odds market here, opened up roughly as a pick-em and currently sitting
09:07now as a pick-em as well.
09:09The minus 124, down a little bit at a minus 118 price here as the favorites towards the
09:13Boston Red Sox.
09:14The total in this one, look at that, six and a half at the opening number, six and a half
09:20we stand here today.
09:21Garrett Crochet, a big part of that because why?
09:23His last 33 and a third innings pitched a 270 ERA and a sparkling clear 2.36 XFIP number.
09:30Some people look at that like the only way I can go is to the over.
09:32Give me three to three and we cover that.
09:34But we know that ballpark doesn't like to surrender a ton of runs and we've had a shutout
09:38in each one of these past two games.
09:40What do we see today?
09:41Crochet, Castillo, Sox versus the Mariners.
09:45Well, I'll tell you what I've seen from Crochet is a whole lot of very high pitch counts and
09:52a whole lot more innings on track for than he has at any point in his career.
09:57And at some time, that's going to take its toll on Crochet here.
10:02And, you know, the old dog there in Castillo, you know, he's had some moments here, but
10:07it's all in all, it seems like it's taken him a little while to get it going.
10:12I think the Mariners at plus money as a home dog, even against Crochet, I think they are
10:17live here.
10:18I think the only way I would look at this is dog or pass here.
10:21I'm looking to back Seattle in this one.
10:24Cal Rowley, the big dumper last night, six ribbies himself could use those six ribbies
10:28today to just about get the total in the game all by itself.
10:31We'll see how that plays out.
10:32But once again, that's the only early afternoon action today.
10:354-10 start East Coast time, 1-10 start there out on the West Coast.
10:39Let's move it back here towards the East, Pittsburgh and Detroit.
10:42971-972 on the rotation.
10:44Pittsburgh's going to run out.
10:45Andrew Heaney, the left-handed pitcher, is actually not having a bad season here.
10:49Going up against Tarek Skubal, nothing short of spectacular.
10:52And that's what you get with the price points in this game.
10:54Opened up at minus 300, still sitting at a minus 300.
10:58Other outlets, Joe, as high as a 313.
11:00Another low total that sits at seven off of the ultimate number and still sits there as
11:05well.
11:05Skubal, if we look at his last 30 days, five starts, 36 in a third innings pitched, 0.99
11:10ERA.
11:11So I say this, it's a light hitting lineup for the Pirates.
11:14Hey, Pirates, good luck today.
11:16What do you say, Joe?
11:18Yeah, well, I say Detroit loves hitting left-handers at home.
11:22And much like Falter yesterday, which they've hit pretty well against, they're going to
11:28have another opportunity against Heaney today.
11:31The problem is, are we getting more than seven runs?
11:35The bats came last night for Pittsburgh.
11:37We got an over.
11:39Are we getting it again here today?
11:41Probably not.
11:42I'm looking at a team total for the Pittsburgh Pirates going under.
11:47And by the way, be careful about this.
11:49And this is the reason why we always bring up the weather conditions.
11:51You have Skubal on the mound.
11:52So like, why would you be betting Detroit today?
11:54Skubal's on the mound.
11:55You want to throw it into a parlay, maybe a run line to try to knock it down and use that
11:59in a parlay.
11:59Because you figure he's probably going to dominate.
12:01To start this game, Joe, cloudy conditions.
12:04Later in the night, heavy rain expected throughout that forecast at 80 degree temperatures, which
12:10you like, but a wind blowing in at seven to eight miles per hour.
12:13That rain comes in.
12:14And I can guarantee you this, Skubal's way too important to say, hey, well, it's the
12:18fourth inning.
12:19We got to stop for an hour and run him back out there when we're only in the month of June.
12:23So I just look at that and say, it might not come into play, but if you're going to lay
12:27that big of a price, it's not because you love Detroit.
12:29It's because you love Skubal out there going eight innings and giving up one earned run and
12:34saying, yep, I knew that was going to happen.
12:36There's nothing worse than you get, Joe.
12:38Third inning rain delay.
12:39Skubal doesn't come out.
12:390-0, you got minus 300 you're hanging on to with a bullpen as opposed to your starting
12:45pitcher there.
12:45So just keep an eye out for that.
12:47Let's get to the West Coast tonight.
12:48Sacramento, the Athletics are taking on the Houston Astros.
12:52Framer Valdez, the lefty on the mound here, the ace of the staff here for the Astros going
12:56up against Severino.
12:579-69, 9-70 on the rotation, a 10 o'clock start tonight and a heavy favor for the Astros.
13:03This line opened up as a minus 174 price and that line right there.
13:07If I could get a minus 122, I would love it because it still sits around that minus 160
13:12price point right now.
13:13The total of this game opened up at 9.5 and sits at 9.5.
13:17So I guess the 11 will take that under as well.
13:20What do you say about that?
13:21Can we get that graphic?
13:22Like back in the day, the newspaper, like, hey, you got to hold those numbers there.
13:25I'm betting into them, Joe.
13:26You'd love that.
13:27All right.
13:28I guess the 13-3 game, the 16 runs we got last night is affecting the market here tonight.
13:35And I mean, who can blame them, right?
13:37I still think I'd be willing to look at Houston in this spot here and think that, yes, at
13:43that price, they are the better team.
13:46They're going to be able to beat the Athletics.
13:49I'm not sure we're going to get 11 runs.
13:51I think all the value is now being created on the under in this one.
13:55And by the way, I'm surprised that we're even looking at a closer line, even if it is
13:59minus 160 or minus 170.
14:00The reason being, Frambois Valdez, on the season, Joe, 360 batters he's faced, a 120
14:07ISO against and a weighted on base percentage of 278, a K rate of close to 27%.
14:11Now, let's go last 30 days.
14:13You say, well, you can't improve on that.
14:14He actually does.
14:16106 batters he's faced, Joe.
14:17The 26% K rate goes up to 35%.
14:20The ISO power number goes from a 120 down to a 104.
14:24The weighted on base percentage goes from a 278 down to a 252.
14:27The ground ball percentage, which you guys know, in a small ballpark that tends to give
14:31up home runs, he increases from a 60% ground ball rate to a 66% ground ball rate at this
14:37point.
14:38You look at the Houston batters, am I in love with them tonight?
14:40Not necessarily, but Severino doesn't strike many batters out.
14:44In a ballpark that gives up a lot of home runs, balls in play, I mean, we might be getting
14:48some runs, so for me, Joe, I'll look at this and be like, man, it seems like a real light
14:52price here.
14:52I don't care what that number is under 200 on the Houston Astros.
14:56I agree with you.
14:59I do think there is some value.
15:02Maybe the run line could come into play here tonight as well, because it doesn't feel like
15:07it's going to be all that much of a pitcher's battle, but still think the value lies in
15:12the under.
15:14Yep.
15:14See what happens in Sacramento.
15:15By the way, Joe, like last night, you're up late.
15:17You're at the game.
15:17You're enjoying it.
15:18Stanley cup final Panthers win it all.
15:20Are there any naps in the forecast for you this afternoon?
15:24Like what's the deal today?
15:25Rest and recovery.
15:27Kind of feel like I've been taking a nap for the last three hours here.
15:31Uh, Donnie, it feels like I've gotten plenty enough rest here.
15:34Uh, so yeah, no, listen, we got no rest for the, we're, we got plenty of baseball today.
15:39And also we got a pretty important, are we going to get a game seven is always the big
15:43question.
15:44And our only shot now is with the NBA tomorrow.
15:46We need that.
15:48You know, it'd be nice to my, I'm getting my ear.
15:50Uh, Kevin Walsh said he wants to fill in for it's in on game time decisions to give you
15:53some time off.
15:54Very nice of Kevin Walsh to do that here on a Wednesday.
15:57Hopefully that is true, but Joe Ranieri, he's going to carry the rest of the way.
16:00I'm off to the radio.
16:01We'll see you fellas once again, tomorrow for Thursday.
16:04All right.
16:06Welcome back in here.
16:07The early line on the sports grid network.
16:11I'm Joe Ranieri.
16:11Uh, we certainly appreciate you hanging with us here this morning, much more major league
16:15baseball to run through before we get out of here.
16:18And, uh, one of the stranger lines that I'm seeing here, certainly from a total perspective
16:24tonight is the Colorado Rockies versus the Washington nationals.
16:28We're talking about a Colorado Rockies team that just hit seven home runs in a game last
16:33night against the Washington nationals.
16:35Now the nationals have struggled offensively over the last couple of weeks, but the Rockies
16:41are on a three game, uh, a three game winning streak.
16:44And the reason they're winning games is because they're absolutely crushing the ball.
16:48So what do we get for a total tonight?
16:49Well, it opened up at nine, nine and a half.
16:53And where is it now?
16:55Well, it's still nine, nine and a half with Mitchell Parker going for the nationals, taking
17:01on Herman Marquez.
17:04And you got a question with these two gas cans on a mound.
17:08How is this total not being bet up to double digits going to be interesting to see what happens
17:16in that game here tonight?
17:18Also the Arizona Diamondbacks trying to bounce back versus the Toronto Blue Jays, uh, tonight
17:24and the Diamondbacks, uh, kind of a pick them price here.
17:29Eduardo Rodriguez, uh, going had a couple of terrible outings early in the year, which is
17:35kind of messed up his, uh, numbers a bit, but he also doesn't have a great bullpen behind
17:42him.
17:43And that's the problem there.
17:44The Jays, well, they're going to send out Eric Lauer, who has not completed five innings
17:50yet.
17:50This season, pretty good in small doses, but his bullpen that backs him up is a top 10,
17:59top 11 bullpen.
18:01So Toronto, no reason for you to think at this price that we should not continue to back them.
18:06They've got it going on here.
18:09And I think the guardians and the giants are interesting as well.
18:12What are we going to get from them here tonight as the Raphael Devers looking giants?
18:20Now a small home favorite lost a close one, three, two last night endeavors opening appearance
18:27there.
18:28And then tonight, of course, they'll have another opportunity to get back at it.
18:33I do think the giants do bounce back at home in this one Verlander back on the mound, by
18:39the way, for the giants and I taking on Logan Allen.
18:43And that total is starting to get bed up here a little bit twins and reds reds did exactly
18:50what we thought they would do last night.
18:52And that is handled business against David Festa and the twins.
18:58So the question is, can the reds bats continue to score some runs?
19:02Lodolo going tonight, Bailey over back on the mound for the Minnesota twins feels like
19:08runs at the great American ballpark are once again, going to be available like the over there
19:16who saw the Marlins beating the snot out of the Phillies last night.
19:21Anyone?
19:22I didn't see it.
19:23Well, they'll have an opportunity to get even here tonight as the Phillies and the Marlins
19:29going to go for round two.
19:31Big number here for the Phillies as Ranger Suarez on the mound.
19:36Miami going to go with what they usually do.
19:39Whoever's available and can actually throw the baseball will start the game for them there.
19:45No reason to think that Philadelphia cannot bounce back in this game.
19:49And oh yeah, Castellanos should be back in the lineup there.
19:53And then the all-important question tonight, what are we going to get from the Yankees?
19:57And what I mean by what are we going to get?
19:59The simple question is, are we getting any runs?
20:03Because, well, we haven't gotten any in 28 straight innings now here.
20:07So, you've got to believe the Yankees are at any moment going to break out a little bit.
20:14Yarbrough on the mound for the Yanks here tonight.
20:18Is it just as simple as maybe we should just side on the caution here and go, you know what?
20:24I'll take the under.
20:26I'll take the under nine, given the fact that they can't score any runs.
20:29And if they're not scoring, I trust the Yankees' bullpen and pitching staff to be able to limit this Angels lineup here.
20:38You like the Yankees to win, you like the over.
20:40If you don't like them, well, then you like the under.
20:44And Rays and Orioles on another hot one in Tampa here tonight.
20:48Still expecting some runs in that game as the Rays continue to do their thing.
20:55Nice number on the Tampa Bay Rays, by the way.
20:58Rodgers versus Taj Bradley.
21:01However, it has been all Baltimore money so far this morning as they opened up as a big minus 130 favorite.
21:08And we're only seeing minus 110s now for the Tampa Bay Rays.
21:13So, get ready.
21:14We've got plenty of Major League Baseball action.
21:16We're 24 hours away from the NBA championship game six.
21:21We'll have more on it tomorrow on the early line.
21:25Enjoy your day.
21:25We'll see you again then.
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