Yankees Look to End Struggles vs. Reds: Analysis & Odds

Watch Yankees Look to End Struggles vs. Reds: Analysis & Odds - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00The Yanks have dropped the first two games against the Reds this week in the Great American

00:04Ballpark. New York has dropped nine of its last 12, but booked as greater than a $2 favorite DRS

00:09to change all of that today. Will they prove that price correct? This is an analytical mismatch on

00:15the mound here, which I'm going to get to in just a few moments, but just some food for thought

00:18here. Did you know the New York Yankees have played 13 straight totals to the under, which

00:22is crazy? This is the Yankees we're talking about. Small ballparks, hot weather here. You look at

00:26every one of those games that they have, it's like, hey, what's going on here? Why can't they

00:29score runs and they're getting good pitching, but not the clutch hitting? Because it feels

00:32like the Yankees, almost like my Philadelphia Phillies fall into that realm of times. It's

00:37like home run or no run at that point, right? We're not getting singles and walks and productive

00:43outs to get guys on third base and sacrifice flies at this point. But here's the interesting

00:47part about this. Max Fried is really good. You take a look at his last 30 days, 31 total

00:51innings pitched, a 277 X number, which is spectacular, a 3.77 ERA, which is slightly higher than you

00:58would expect from having a grade of an XFIP. But take a look at Brady Singer, 27 pitchers

01:02on the card today, Ben, minimum of five innings pitched over the past month. He's 26th out

01:07of 27 pitchers with an XFIP of 4.85, but an ERA of 2.79. So theoretically, you have a pitcher

01:14that's better ERA-wise, Brady Singer, but the analytics market is telling you he should get

01:18knocked around today and the complete opposite from Max Fried. Slightly higher ERA, but his XFIP

01:23number shows he should bounce back into form. If we're looking at guys that should do well

01:27tonight, well, the first six batters in the Yankees lineup, all high weighted on base percentages

01:31against right-handed pitching on the season. But as I just told you, like Singer's ERA

01:35has been good. His last 120 batters, ISO against 115, low. Weighted on base percentage against

01:40292. That's low, but he doesn't strike out very many hitters. And if you're looking again,

01:4588 degrees at first pitch tonight at 710 in Cincinnati and a slight wind blowing out the center

01:49field, this should be a Yankees night tonight. So if I'm looking from a Yankees perspective and

01:53say, well, you know, all those unders in the last 13 games, I do think Max Fried holds down that

01:58lineup for the Cincinnati Reds. But even though the Yankees don't score, you know, crazy runs along

02:03with other teams in the same game, a Yankees team total is not off the deck for me tonight. I think

02:08they might be able to hit in this weather and scrape up what four and a half runs. You're probably

02:11looking at the total here for the Yankees in that range. If it's five and a half, that's tough

02:15because that means they need six and you're probably looking at a total in that game,

02:18but Yankees bats should rise up. Aaron Judge, RBIs, things like that should make some sense tonight.