Red Sox vs. Braves: Key Factors in Upcoming MLB Showdown

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00:00The Boston Red Sox now four games below 500.

00:04A lot of excitement for this year's Sox team DRS

00:07and maybe being a troop and a contender in the AL

00:10hasn't happened just yet.

00:12Boston has dropped five consecutive games.

00:14What is this MLB rivalry weekend?

00:17A second edition.

00:18We head to Atlanta today.

00:20The old rivals, the Braves and the Red Sox

00:22face off this weekend in the A.

00:24The Braves avoided a sweep yesterday

00:27in the finale against Philadelphia.

00:28But like Boston, a disappointing start.

00:32Three games below 500 for the Braves.

00:35They are a home favorite today.

00:36Grant Holmes gets the nod.

00:37Lucas Giolito on the other side for the Sox.

00:40What's the play today in the A?

00:43Yeah, it's nice to have close to 10-mile-an-hour winds

00:45blowing out to left center field today.

00:46Temperatures in the low 70s and not really worried about rain.

00:49That's fantastic.

00:50We actually love that.

00:51Grant Holmes, not a great pitcher,

00:52but also only 16th on the card today out of 28.

00:55So right around midway, 100 XFIT minus,

00:58which is average in ERA.

00:59That's decent at 3.68 and an XFIT number of 3.97.

01:03Very manageable.

01:04On this season, he's done really well

01:06against left-handed batters.

01:07At 150 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 275.

01:10But if you flip it over to the last 30 days,

01:12he's faced 65 left-handed batters,

01:14a 258 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 335

01:17and a little bit dipping there in that K rate.

01:19You take a look at some of the left-handed batters

01:21in the lineup for Boston.

01:22They've done very well against right-handed pitching

01:24over the past month starts with Jaron Duran,

01:26a 187 ISO power number weighted on base percentage of 360.

01:30Raphael Devers, dude, about two in the lineup tonight,

01:32297 ISO with a 475 weighted on base percentage

01:36going up against right-handed pitching.

01:37And then you have Willier Abreu,

01:38one of my favorite batters in that lineup,

01:3983 at-bats against right-handed pitching

01:41over the past month, 262.

01:44Now, also understand this.

01:45The Atlanta Braves yesterday played two games in Philadelphia

01:48and you were on the road and you're flying back.

01:50But that top of the lineup looks decent.

01:52Acuna, Baldwin, Ozuna, Olsen, and Riley all heavy,

01:55weighted on base percentages against right-handed pitching

01:57over the past 30 days,

01:59which Lucas Giolito has struggled against lefties

02:01over the past 30 days here.

02:03So those lefties in the lineup is Matt Olsen

02:05and Drake Baldwin,

02:06probably legitimate chances to get RBI in that spot here.

02:09A little bit of a heavy favorite for Atlanta

02:11to sort of back it that way.

02:13So maybe a couple RBI props make a little bit more sense

02:15with some of those left-handed batters

02:17going against these two right-handed pitchers.

02:18Yeah, Donnie, it's a matter of time right now

02:20for these teams to start to figure things out.

02:23There's a lot of this MLB season remaining,

02:25but you really got to start to turn things around

02:27rather quickly as you approach the end of May.

02:30Two more days in May, and then it's June.

02:32And then before you know it,

02:33you're nearing the MLB All-Star break

02:35in the middle of July.

02:37Fork Watch is out for the Braves.

02:40Red Sox not nearly as high of expectations,

02:42so maybe not on Fork Watch just yet.

02:45But Boston was just swept by the Milwaukee Brewers,

02:48including a couple of extra inning walk-offs

02:50for the Brew Crew.

02:51They've won four straight, eight of their last 11.

02:54They're now above .500 by a game,

02:57and they head to Philadelphia today

02:58where the Phils await this weekend

03:00with the best record in the National League,

03:0236-20, the mark for Philadelphia.

03:05Today, the Phils a home favorite,

03:07around minus 142 on the money line.

03:09PRS, that total on its way up.

03:12Nine and a half.

03:12Should be a decent Friday night

03:14in the greater regional Philadelphia area,

03:16if I am not mistaken.

03:18How much offense do we see tonight at the bank?

03:22Still some rain in the forecast.

03:23I don't know if it's going to be around game time

03:25or maybe late in the game,

03:26because we're expecting a couple inches of rain

03:28at least overnight.

03:29Hopefully that doesn't creep into this one.

03:31But 73-degree temperatures are like,

03:32light wind blowing out, you'll like that as well.

03:34But D.L. Hall, I'm listed as a starting pitcher here.

03:36Only 10 batters faced on the season.

03:38It doesn't list him as an opener here,

03:39so I don't know how long he goes.

03:41But also the question's going to be,

03:42is Bryce Harper going to be back in the lineup

03:44after basically missing three games?

03:46Missed the first game of the Atlanta series

03:47after, what, one at bat,

03:49and then sat out the double header

03:50after the rain out here.

03:51So maybe he comes back healthiness.

03:53The one guy that doesn't care

03:54who its lefties or righties,

03:55it's Kyle Schwerber.

03:57How about 42 at-bats against lefty

03:58into pitching as a lefty

03:59that he struggled with in his career?

04:01A 441 ISO and a 466 weighted on base percentage.

04:04Now, Tywon Walker has been decent

04:06for the Philadelphia Phillies.

04:07Not a big strikeout guy,

04:08but look at his last 72 batters that he's faced.

04:11An 078 ISO power number

04:12and a 258 weighted on base percentage.

04:15I would lean towards the Philadelphia Phillies,

04:17but they also were home at least

04:19and played a double header,

04:20had to use some pitchers in there.

04:21Maybe they're a little bit,

04:22you know, rest for the weary,

04:23not on their side,

04:24but I'm looking forward to seeing

04:25if Bryce Harper does come back tonight.

04:27If he does, like nine at 10 runs

04:29at Citizens Bank Ballpark

04:30isn't a ton when you don't really have

04:32two flamethrowers per se on the mound.

04:34Could it go over?

04:35Yes, but the numbers,

04:36like if Harper's not playing

04:37and then you take a look at this lineup tonight

04:39for the Brewers,

04:40which is underwhelming

04:41against right-handed pitching

04:41and Walker's being good,

04:43I don't know if we get 10 runs tonight,

04:44to be honest.

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