Red Sox and Braves' Struggles: Injuries & Close Games Impact

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00:00So, you know, big picture here for both the Red Sox and Braves

00:02is honestly, Danny, I mean, they're going through it.

00:05The Red Sox are losing a million close games.

00:08I mean, are we really back to another season

00:10where the Braves can't keep anybody healthy?

00:12I mean, A.J. Smith-Shauver goes down yesterday,

00:14and that does not seem like an injury that's going to be a couple of weeks.

00:17And, I mean, he was the favorite to win rookie of the year.

00:20But tonight, Grant Holmes, I mean, another guy who's come up

00:24and done a good job for them.

00:25He's minus 160.

00:26Hopefully they can keep him healthy.

00:28I'm not sure.

00:28They're Red Sox plus 136 tonight.

00:33Danny, I guess my theory on the Red Sox is the next 60 games

00:37are going to look better than the first 60

00:38because there's just been really bad luck

00:40when you lose so many one-run games.

00:42So my tendency is to kind of back them a little bit,

00:46but I'm just not sure that I really like them either.

00:48Make up tonight's game.

00:50Yeah, no, and that's a great way to look about it.

00:53I completely agree.

00:54I still think the Boston Red Sox are going to turn this around.

00:57I mean, the fact that they keep losing these games in painful fashion by one run,

01:01as you alluded to, it's got to flip and kind of regress to the mean.

01:05At some point, you would figure.

01:07But I don't hate the idea of looking at the plus money with them in this spot.

01:10I mean, like you said, the Braves just keep getting banged up.

01:13Can't be great for the morale around this team, but they do keep finding a way.

01:16It's just the price is really egregious to lay over minus 160.

01:20I know Holmes has been a solid pitcher, and I don't love the idea of trusting Giolito,

01:25but I get the attraction toward Boston, especially with Atlanta coming off that double header.

01:30But the way that I am betting this, Craig, is I'm taking over nine runs,

01:34got minus 124 at Fandle for the flat nine.

01:37And again, you know, you look at Holmes and his numbers are good,

01:40but the wind is blowing out about 13 miles per hour to left center field.

01:44I think Boston's bats can come alive in this situation,

01:47and the bullpen may be a bit depleted for Atlanta following that double header.

01:51Giolito's numbers are always concerning, and I always look for an avenue to fade him,

01:55and Atlanta's bats have been good enough to be able to just pummel him today,

01:59especially with that wind blowing out.

02:00So I think it's going to be higher scoring rather than trusting teams.

02:03That's the way that I'm going to approach this handicap.

02:06All right, finally, Danny, real quick here.

02:08You know the Royals are going to be jacked up for this series tonight.

02:10They want to show that they can fight with the Tigers.

02:12I'm not sure that they can, but the matchup is great on paper.

02:15Casey Mize has been awesome.

02:17Seth Lugo has been awesome as well.

02:19Total eight and a half.

02:21Oof, how are they going to get to eight and a half runs here?

02:23I don't know.

02:24That's my first thought here looking at this.

02:26Yeah, good question.

02:28I'm hoping it comes from the side of Detroit because Lugo's ERA grade at 302.

02:32His XERA, though, is 471 and a 450 fifth.

02:35So there are those underlying concerns with him.

02:38And I am going to back Casey Mize, who's got a bit more steady stat line across the board

02:43here, laying a slight price here with the Tigers, but I like that.

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