- 6/2/2025
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00:00Let's look at the World Series odds. The Dodgers a very short favorite at plus 240.
00:04Again, three dollars better than that even of the pinstripes who had that second best price.
00:09The Tigers the third best number. So two of the three best prices to win the World Series
00:14out of the American League. But then the next four hail from the NL. Five of the seven shortest
00:21numbers to win the World Series right now from the National League. Five of those seven prices
00:27shorter than a 20 to one number from teams from the NL. The Dodgers have a much more difficult path
00:34based on the quality of the National League as compared to the American League at this moment.
00:40The Tigers have been a slight surprise to be the best team in Major League Baseball. And Detroit
00:45has a better record by two games than that of New York. If the series at the season were to end
00:51today, of course, we still have more than 100 games to be played. Detroit would be the one seed
00:56earning that by, of course, along maybe with New York in the opening round. But all to be said in
01:01terms of home field advantage. But Donnie, based on the odds, despite how short the Dodgers have
01:07been priced the entirety of this season well before the season got started, it seems as though the
01:12path based on the quality of the NL is more difficult for L.A. than the Yanks on the other
01:18side in the American League. Yeah, because look at the Dodgers as a viable outlet, right? You look at the
01:22Phillies as a viable outlet, the Mets as well. And we're expecting the Braves sort of come together
01:26here and then say, OK, the Padres are still talented. And who knows if the Giants and or
01:30the Diamondbacks can have a good second half of the season. We're not getting that from the American
01:34League side. Like we're looking at the upstarts like the Tigers. And we already had the conversation.
01:38Are the Tigers a true World Series contender? By definition, yes, they are. Because I think they
01:42make the playoffs and win at least one round because I don't think there's too many teams that could
01:45overpower Detroit in a short series. When you have Tarek Skubel on the mound pitching like a Cy Young
01:49award-winning pitcher once again this year, you take a look at the Mariners. The question is,
01:54will those bats always end up, you know, in the September months where they can still stay hot?
01:58And can those young pitchers get it together, not stay injured? They typically the Astros were
02:02waiting on Jordan Alvarez to come back into that lineup. He suffers a setback. I'm not loving what
02:06I see out of that team right now. So clearly it is the Yankees first and foremost. And then you look
02:11at the National League and say multiple teams I do think could knock off the Dodgers. It's a matter
02:16how hot you're playing in the month of September into October if you don't have those injuries here
02:20and also what moves you're going to make at the trade deadline. The one thing that's always fault
02:24to the Dodgers, it seems like, is we just can't get our pitchers healthy by the time we get to
02:27the playoffs. And you still won the World Series last year. So go figure. And you still expect
02:33Shohei Otani to be on the bump at a certain point of this season as well for LA, probably post
02:40all-star break later in the month of July. Plus 650. A very short number, but plus 650
02:47on the World Series matchup to be the Dodgers and the Yankees once again. The shortest price
02:53on the FanDuel Sportsbook for those World Series finalists. Other news around MLB next. Does the
02:59public believe it will be the Yanks and the Dodgers once again come late October, early November?
03:06That was the question to all of you and fade the public.
03:16At SportsGrid on Twitter, will the 2025 World Series be a rematch between the Dodgers and the
03:23Yankees? Two options for you. We hope the phrasing of the question lived up to Donnie Wright's side's
03:30very lofty standards. Yes or no. Most of the public DRS, an overwhelming majority,
03:37more than 70% of the vote now, say no. We will not see a World Series rematch once again
03:44between the Dodgers and the Yankees. DRS, are you fading the public?
03:48I am fading the public. I clicked yes because I'm just taking a look at right now two months into the
03:53season. I think that the best team in the National League when it's all said and done is going to be
03:56the Dodgers. On the other side, I think the Yankees right now are the best team in the American
04:00League and there's not very many teams that right now I'm scared of, oh, this team could really track
04:04them down. But to be honest, the nose probably will be corrected 70% currently right now because
04:09it's hard to pick the two teams from each league. So much has to go into the final four months.
04:14Injuries will take place. Teams will get hot. So getting a repeat of the World Series from last year
04:19certainly will be tough. But I'm just looking right now and I say who's the best team that I think is
04:23going to be in the National League? It's the Dodgers and the same thing with the Yankees and
04:27the American. Interesting. I voted no. Why? Because I hope it's the Detroit Tigers out of the American
04:34League as I have a 10 to 1 ticket on Detroit from opening day to win that American League pennant.
04:40The Tigers have the best record in baseball in the second best price now to win the AL only behind
04:45the pinstripes and the third best number to win the World Series. However, DRS, we are talking about
04:51two teams. There are the pennant favorites in the respective leagues, the Yankees in the AL,
04:56the Dodgers in the NL, and two teams that have the two best numbers to win a World Series. Plus 240,
05:01the ridiculously short number on LA that was the case before this year got started is the case now.
05:0836 and 23, the Dodgers that third best record in the National League, but in front in the division
05:15in the NL West. The Yankees 36 and 22, second best mark in the American League, two full games
05:21behind the Detroit Tigers, but best record in the American League East. Both from a record perspective,
05:27DRS, in the path both teams have right now and what we anticipate based on the odds,
05:33it should not surprise anybody in the least that we see a World Series rematch between the Dodgers and
05:39the Yankees. No, certainly, because again, we're talking about the talent levels and also two big
05:44market teams that had the ability to go out and spend and trade prospects at the trade deadline
05:49and not to worry about hitting a certain apron or a luxury tax level that they can't afford.
05:53They certainly can do that because when you're trying to measure up and you say, okay, look at
05:57the odds right now. It is Dodgers, Yankees. You take the top two and you move it forward,
06:00but understand this too, as we just said, these changes will be a lot different because the teams that you
06:04see now, let's just say neither team gets injured and or fails in the standings over the next one
06:11and a half months until we get the trade deadline. They're still going to add on because they
06:14understand that window is theirs now to win it. The Dodgers aren't going like, whoa,
06:18man, like five years. We're only going to have a high payroll at this point. They don't care about
06:21that. They care about winning right now and they have the prospects to do it. So for me,
06:24I look at it and say, okay, if I like the Yankees right now and I like the Dodgers right now already as
06:28is, I think they're actually going to be a better, be a better baseball team by the time we get post-dread
06:33deadline than they are actually right now to sort of fortifies my opinion. But again,
06:37the people that voted the no probably will be correct. The Tigers are good. The Phillies are
06:41good. The Mets are good. The Cubs are good. Those teams will get hot with a legitimate chance to knock
06:44off those because also go back into the history of the expanded wild card in the national league
06:49and the American league. We're not getting the best of the best every single time in the world series
06:54because it's harder to go through and they're short series. It's why in the NBA, you know, in the 1980s,
06:58you had shorter series is what better teams getting knocked out. And the NBA goes like, no,
07:02no, no, no. It's better for our sport to have long series the entire way through because the cream will
07:06rise to the top and the better teams will advance. We don't have that in baseball yet. You play bad
07:10baseball for three games. You're out. There's no reprieve. Donnie, when the Yankees and the Dodgers
07:16met last year, it was the first time in the three full seasons that fully and officially MLB had expanded
07:22post-pandemic that we saw those favorites or the biggest brands reach a world series to face off
07:29against one another. And again, the number right now on the Dodgers and the Yankees to meet up in the
07:35world series is plus 650 for anybody else, for any of the other 28 clubs, even if the Dodgers win the
07:43NL and we get a different representative in the American league or vice versa. Yankees win the AL
07:48different representative in the NL. So you're taking the field. It's probably a minus 1000 price.
07:53It would not be shocking either way to see a rematch or either the Yankees or the Dodgers to
08:00fall short. Now, our producer extraordinaire, Joe Frizo was going to give two more options,
08:05DRS in the fade, the public poll, but did not want to anger you to start off a new week. It was going
08:10to be an additional, no, the Dodgers will not make it or no, the Yankees will not make it, but it might
08:18have been confusing based on the phrasing. DRS, if you had to pick one of those two teams that is more than
08:23likely to come up short of the world series, who is it? The Yankees, because I just think the
08:28Dodgers are so talented that when everything is right for them, come on, man. How are you going
08:34to beat them in a five or seven? Hold on a second. Didn't we start the second hour with you saying
08:39it's more than likely the Yankees get there with a better path? What's surprising though would be the
08:46Dodgers. So I think something needs to be clarified here as we start to preview our seven game slate
08:53on this Monday around Major League Baseball. When we were recapping the weekend set between the
08:58Dodgers and the Yankees, we laid out the path for both of these teams. You look at the World Series
09:03odds, the Dodgers are a ridiculously short favorite, basically as LA has been the entirety of this year
09:09and early in the off season as well. Plus 240, more than $3 in front of the Yankees. But there's only
09:16two teams from the American League, the Yanks and the Tigers, that have two of the seven best prices
09:22to win a World Series. The other five teams, including LA, hail from the NL. So based on the
09:28path, despite the Dodgers being such a short favorite, maybe it's better for the Yankees
09:34to get back to a World Series, which I think is what Donnie was saying to start off hour two.
09:39But then when I asked him who would he be most surprised by if they fell short of a World Series
09:45once again, he said the Dodgers. It sounded confusing. So DRS, please explain your thought process
09:51behind that philosophy here. When you're looking at the Yankees, the Yankees are a very good baseball
09:56team. The Yankees play not in such a good, let's just say, league as the Dodgers do. So for me,
10:02thinking that the Yankees will make the World Series because they don't have a tougher path
10:06is appropriate there. But also at the same time, you look at the Los Angeles Dodgers, you say,
10:10yes, their path is much harder than the Yankees. But I do think the Dodgers are much better than the
10:15Yankees. And even the projections is what we're looking at, right? As I continue to say,
10:19after the trade deadline, when the Yankees will see what they add or the Dodgers will see what they
10:23add. I think by the time if we have no catastrophic injuries, you had Shohei Ohtani back into that
10:28lineup as possibly a pitcher, even a high leverage pitcher. Hey, coming in the sixth inning of the
10:33NL wildcard to sort of shut down a rally here. That's unbelievable if you can do that. So it does
10:38sound convoluted the way I'm trying to explain it. But understand this, the Dodgers are the better team
10:42just because they're the harder road doesn't mean they can't get there. So for me, the Yankees,
10:46if they slip up in the postseason, I'd say, well, yeah, they weren't as good and it wasn't as tough
10:50a run. But, you know, that pedigree of a team for the Dodgers. So the Dodgers by far are going to have
10:55the toughest schedule to get to the World Series. But I still would be absolutely shocked more
10:59technically if the Dodgers don't make it because of that payroll and the expectations of adding a
11:04reliever, a bat and or a starting pitcher by the time we even get to August. Okay, checks out.
11:09Great explanation. Thank you very much. Speaking of rematches and previews, it's an NLCS rematch this
11:17week, starting in LA on this Monday night, part of a seven game slate around Major League Baseball
11:23yesterday and today, Lou Gehrig Day in MLB. Officially, it's June 2nd every year. But because
11:30we only have a seven game slate, part of it was celebrated yesterday with the teams that are not
11:35in action wearing the patch of Gehrig's number four on the jersey. So Lou Gehrig Day today and a
11:42marquee matchup on this Monday night in NLCS rematch between the Dodgers and the New York Mets. We've
11:48already seen our first championship series rematch from last year in the National League last weekend
11:54between the Mets and the Dodgers. It was up in Queens. The Amazons taken two or three to win the weekend
12:00set. Today, DRS, the Dodgers, a home favorite at the Ravine at minus 164 to start this second series
12:07of the year between the Mets and the Dodgers. How does this one begin tonight in Los Angeles?
12:13We might get some runs in this one. Like Paul Blackburn, like you always remember him from
12:17like his Oakland Athletics days. Not a great pitcher overall. Going to make his debut in Major League
12:21Baseball this season after pitching in the minors, which again, hasn't had a lot of success even in
12:26minor league baseball. And you're coming up to the big leagues now. Oh, Tani, Betts, Freeman, Hernandez,
12:30Muncie, Pius, Conforto, Rushing, and Edmund look to be the estimated one through nine in that lineup.
12:34And a lot of those guys, regardless of left-hander, right-hander, pedigree pitcher or not,
12:39they've done extremely well. Also, temperatures in Chavez Ravine, a little bit cooler than we saw
12:43in that Yankee series. Mid-60s here, light wind blowing out the center field, but the New York Mets on
12:48their side going up against Dustin May. May has struggled a little bit, particularly over the last 30 days
12:52against right-handed batters. You finally saw Pete Alonso get a home run yesterday. Could
12:56he be into the mix? But also, take a look at Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto,
13:00Pete Alonso, Brett Beatty, Jared Young, and also McNeil, all having high ISO power numbers
13:05against right-handed pitching here. So for my money, I do think that the Dodgers are the better
13:10team tonight because I'm not trusting Paul Blackburn, but number two, maybe a better look
13:14would be the total on both sides here. Why can't we get runs? We got a lot of runs in that Yankees-Dodgers
13:19series all the way through those three games, each and every one of those games hitting the over.
13:22Why can't we get 10 runs again tonight? Absolutely so. That total is nine, DRS. All
13:27three games in that series between the Dodgers and the Yanks saw at least 10 runs. Not nearly
13:34as much offense in the first meeting between L.A. and New York, up in Queens, outside of
13:38the opener, the only game the Dodgers won. That was a 7-5 victory a couple of Friday nights
13:44ago. Final series of the year between the Mets and the Dodgers. New York took the first,
13:49winning two of three. And really, DRS, since that first win against L.A., now nine days ago,
13:57the Mets playing really good baseball. They have won seven of their last eight, including a weekend
14:01sweep of the Colorado Rockies. The New York Mets, 37-22, atop the National League East once again,
14:0837-22. The mark tied for the best in the NL alongside the Chicago Cubs. But a couple of really
14:16good teams elsewhere in the NL West trying to keep pace with L.A. That would be both the Giants
14:22and the Padres. San Diego stumbling a little bit as of late after their historic start to this year.
14:29These two teams face off today up in Northern California. The Giants, a hefty favorite with
14:34their ace, Logan Webb, on the bump. Minus 174. Total of seven. What is the play for this California
14:41and divisional duel? Yeah, probably should go to the Giants. It is a heavy number, and I don't
14:45really love the Giants' bats all that much. You take a look at Steven Kulik on the season. He might
14:48say, hey, look at that. An ISO again, so 086 and a weighted on base percentage of 297. Let's dig into
14:53those numbers. His first two starts of the season at Pittsburgh and at Colorado. Now, granted, it was
14:59Colorado, but still, you're facing the Colorado bats and the Pittsburgh bats. How about going 14 and a
15:04third innings pitch without giving up an earned run in those first two starts? Look at the last three
15:08starts. Seattle, five innings, five earned runs. Toronto, six innings, three earned runs,
15:13which wasn't bad, but gave up four total runs in that effort. Miami, five and a third innings,
15:18six earned runs in that. So he's leaking oil late. Maybe it's a chance for those bats to get red hot
15:23gear for San Francisco. Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Willie Adamas, guys with high ISO power numbers and
15:29weighted on base percentages against right-handed pitching. Flip it over to the other side. You know,
15:32I love Logan Webb. On the season, last 30 days, everything looks good outside of him being a little
15:37bit leaky now to left-handed batters. Those left-handed batters in the lineup when I anticipated,
15:41Louie Arise, Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, maybe an opportunity. But for me, I just think
15:45the cream rises to the top. The better pitcher, I'll take him in this game, even with a heavy
15:49number, similar to what we were just talking about with the Los Angeles Dodgers going up against the
15:53Mets. Just a better pitcher at home, hard to pass up. The Padres started off the month of May,
15:59winning four consecutive games, but they are 10 and 13 since that point. Two games back of LA is San Diego,
16:05three games back in San Francisco. Ward MLB next.
16:10The hottest team around the bigs right now resides in Milwaukee. The Brewers have won seven consecutive
16:15games, including sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies this weekend. Can the Brew crew, a part of this
16:21seven-game slate around MLB, continue that win streak to start off a new week in Cincinnati?
16:27Milwaukee, a slight road underdog to have that seven-game win streak come to a close tonight
16:33against Brady Singer and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds a minus 120 now. Home Moneyline favorite
16:39total is nine. An NL Central Divisional dual DRS. Does that win streak reach eight for the Brewers
16:47today? It could. Two pitchers there that are certainly not going in the right direction for
16:52what you're looking to handicap and say, I think this game stays under the total. We see a nine there.
16:55It's a great American ballpark, one of the better hitting ballparks in the National League,
16:59if not across Major League Baseball. 74-degree temperatures today, starting to see that little,
17:04you know, rise in the barometer and rise in the temperatures, which is fantastic. You take a look
17:08at that, too, because you say to yourselves, you know, the last two weeks, a little bit cooler
17:12temperatures. Now the East Coast is going to heat up midweek here, Ben. You're looking at 87, 88,
17:1689 degrees, which is great. So some of that front is starting to move across the country. But let's
17:20understand this. Aaron Savali hasn't had a lot of innings pitched on the season so far. Only 12 innings pitched,
17:25but he's got an ERA of six and an XFIP number of 5.46. A right-handed pitcher struggling with lefties,
17:31and you don't want to struggle with lefties if you're taking on the Cincinnati Reds. T.J. Friedel,
17:36his last 72 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Stellar, ISO of 211, weighted on base percentage of 495.
17:41Ellie De La Cruz, you watch him launch a bomb last night. 75 at-bats in his last 30 days against right-handed
17:46pitching. A 319 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 398. Will Benson, 53 at-bats against right-handed
17:52pitching. How about a 383 ISO and a 440 weighted on base percentage? And Jake Fraley, only 13 at-bats,
17:57but a 600 ISO power number in his last 13 at-bats against right-handed pitching. I do think a team
18:02total might be in order here for the Cincinnati Reds, if not a victory. However, Brady Singer on
18:07the mound for the Reds, not a great pitcher either. Right-handed pitchers struggling over the past 30
18:11days with both right-handed bats and more importantly, left-handed bats. Bryce Terrain,
18:15Christian Yelich, Sal Fralick, Reese Hoskins, all decent numbers. But if I had to pick one batter
18:20in the lineup tonight for the Milwaukee Brewers to get an RBI or do some damage, it's probably
18:24Yelich's last 72 at-bats against right-handed pitching. A 279 ISO and a weighted on base
18:29percentage of 367. The lineup doesn't look that great tonight here for the Milwaukee Brewers
18:35on the road. Maybe a slight lean here with the bats on the Cincinnati Reds. I like that. Total
18:41is nine and DRS is correct. Attempts are heating up this week. Our first week of June, it feels like
18:48we are starting to get to summer. Will that be the case inside Fenway Park tonight as well? The Red
18:55Sox play host to the LA Angels. Donnie, at least the odds makers are expecting to see some scoring.
19:01Total is nine and a half. A little bit of juice on the over in this Boston battle. Can we expect
19:08offense tonight inside Fenway? You probably should get it. Tyler Anderson, like that high
19:13XFIP guy, comes in this game. 61 innings pitched on the season. A good ERA of 3.39, but his XFIP
19:19of 5.21. When does he absolutely just start to get shelled on a night-to-night basis? Here's the
19:24issue. 64-degree temperatures, which again, isn't great, but certainly not what you anticipate for
19:29the month of June. Light winds blowing out to right center field. But if you look at the Boston Red Sox
19:33lineup over its past 30 days against left-handed pitching, it hasn't been great. Devers,
19:37Narvaez, and Ref Schneider all have very good statistics against lefties, but the rest of
19:42the lineup, Durant, Campbell, Story, Toro, Meyer, and also Raffaella, all terrible. So it's not
19:47something I want to sort of jump into, but if you're looking at left-handed pitchers, maybe
19:51Rafael Devers can catch one tonight, but Rafael Devers, excuse me, Rob Ref Schneider does have
19:55some better statistics. Not a great lineup there, but for the Angels on the other side, Richard
19:59Fitz, look, only 82 of bats or batters that he's faced on the season so far. He's got a decent
20:04ERA at 2.70, but a higher XFIP of 4.43. If you're just looking at XFIP tonight, based
20:09on those analytical numbers, we probably should be more overs than unders in this one.
20:14Yoan Mokata, Taylor Ward, Joe Adele all have really good statistics against right-handed
20:18pitching, but it's not two pitchers that I'm happy with saying, you know what, I definitely
20:22want to fade in because this game could be 2-1 in the fifth inning. This game could be
20:255-4 in the fifth inning. So a tough one here with a couple of batters that you just might
20:29want to pick out, but we're waiting on those warmer temperatures to invade Boston, help
20:33push that ball over the fence.
20:35The Sox did take the weekend away in Atlanta, a rematch of rivalry weekend against the Atlanta
20:41Braves. The Braves still struggling, sub-500. The Red Sox did win the weekend, but yet still
20:46sub-500 by three games, 29 and 32. The good news for Boston, they entered the weekend in
20:53the A, riding a five-game skid. That came to a close. They won the weekend against the Braves.
20:59By the way, Atlanta, 27 and 31, getting more precarious by the day. The Braves can even
21:05muster up a rally to reach the National League postseason in the expanded playoffs. Fork watch,
21:13very much on DRS for those Atlanta Braves. It is a seven-game slate on Lou Gehrig Day officially
21:19in Major League Baseball. We will round out the final three matchups that you need to know,
21:25including baseball's best on the road on the south side of Chicago.
21:29A seven-game slate on this Monday around Major League Baseball. It is Lou Gehrig Day. I'm glad
21:36they celebrated that also in part yesterday on the opening day of June on a Sunday. Because DRS,
21:43the seven games we have today, not all of them are great, including the ones we are about to break
21:49down here in this segment. It does start, though, with baseball's best team. The Detroit Tigers
21:55remain the team with the best record around the bigs, 39 and 21. They head to the park of one of
22:03the worst teams in Major League Baseball this year. And as of this moment, the worst team in the modern
22:09era of Major League Baseball, that being the Chicago White Sox, who, by the way, are not great this year.
22:15They're 18 and 41. But if it wasn't for the Rockies, who we'll discuss in just a matter of
22:21moments as well, Chicago might have a couple more eyeballs about how dreadful they have been once
22:27again in 2025. So with the Tigers sending out Jack Flaherty on the bump on the south side of Chicago,
22:34Detroit is a road favorite of greater than two bills, minus 205. That updated number now
22:39in favor of the Tigers. How do you see that game playing out tonight in Chicago?
22:45It should be a Tigers win. And also understand that we're playing in Chicago. It is windy. It's
22:49blowing in nine miles per hour. But how about this? 80 degrees at first pitch, something that you
22:53certainly like to see. The one thing we look at Jonathan Cannon, the last four starts have all
22:57been on the road. And the last two haven't been very good. Gave up, went five innings, gave up four
23:01runs, three of those earned, followed by five in the two-third innings pitched here, giving up five
23:05earned runs in that game. But this is a home game and maybe a chance to bounce back. But here's the issue.
23:09Like left-handed bats, which we love for Detroit, might be a little bit tougher hitting the home run.
23:14But Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Riley Green, you know, Wenzel Perez, who's a switcher back from
23:18the left-hand side tonight, all really good numbers. Like if you look at the first seven
23:22batters anticipated in the lineup tonight, all exciting, weighted on base percentages against
23:26right-handed pitching over the past 30 days. That certainly bodes well. But then as you take a
23:29look at the Chicago White Sox, the issue is not really like they can't be competitive. They're
23:34just not good enough. You know, you have Talkman and Vargas in the middle of that line of putting up
23:37decent statistics here. Sosa and Palacios, decent weighted on base percentages here.
23:42I would actually love to take an over, but just with that wind blowing in, it makes it a little
23:45bit tougher. Flaherty, however, has given up the majority of his damage from the left-hand
23:50side. You look at the lefties in the lineup tonight, really only Mike Talkman shines. So
23:54once again, Detroit is the better team. Detroit's going to have the better pitcher on the mound.
23:58And that's the way outside, even with that high price point in Chicago today.
24:02The Tigers 39-21. Best record in the Bigs. A game and a half cushion currently over both the Mets and
24:09the Cubs from the NL for the best overall mark in Major League Baseball. Two-game advantage over the
24:15New York Yankees for the best record in the American League. And a six-game lead already for Detroit
24:21within the division in the American League Central. Six games in front of Cleveland, seven games in front
24:27of Minnesota. The Twins, who currently hold the longest win streak this year in Major League Baseball
24:32at 13 in a row since that 13-game win streak are five and seven. Minnesota dropped the final two games
24:40of their weekend series away in Seattle to lose the set against the M's. Minnesota remains
24:46on the West Coast as they head to Sacramento today to take on the A's. The Twins are a road
24:52favorite today. Minus 162 in Sactown against the Athletics. Total nine and a half. How does this
24:59series start this week, DRS, in California's capital? Yeah, how about Joe Ryan? 63 innings
25:04pitched on the season. An ERA of 2.57 and a very manageable XFIP number of 3.45. You take a look
25:10at his numbers against weighted on base percentage against 243 batters he's faced. How about a 262?
25:15You go to the last 30 days, that actually increases to a 224, so even better here. He's been great the last
25:20month. Low walk rate, decent K rate, low ISO power numbers against, and low weighted on base
25:25percentages here. Now, also, we're not playing in Minnesota. We're out on the West Coast there in
25:28Sacramento, which has usually been a band box to open up the season, which you have Lawrence Butler,
25:33Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, and Tyler Soderstrom, all with very good numbers against right-handed
25:37pitching, particularly over the past month. Now, flip it over to Minnesota here and take a look at how
25:41they match up against Luis Severino. He's been a decent pitcher. However, on the season,
25:45it's 72 and a third innings pitched here. 389 ERA, which is good, and the 410 XFIP number,
25:51which is right around the numbers you look forward to. But there are a couple guys in
25:54that lineup that have a chance to do damage tonight. Byron Buxton, 385 weighted on base
25:58percentage last 30 days against right-handed pitching. Trevor Larnock, 410 weighted on base
26:02percentage with a high ISO going up against right-handed pitching. And also, take a look at
26:06Walner, only had limited at-bats, but Cody Clemens continues to shine on each card. 59 at-bats
26:10against right-handed pitching over the past month, a 396 ISO and a weighted on base percentage
26:15of 453. Usually, we're just fading the ballpark out there and the pitchers pitching into it
26:19saying, that's just going to go over. It's hard to say I love both of these lineups,
26:23but there are spots here like we just talked about. Buxton, Larnock, and Clemens who have
26:27legitimate chances to get RBI. And anytime you play in a smaller ballpark with those hot
26:32temperatures in Sacramento, you sort of want to glom onto that. That's the way I would play
26:35with those three batters from Minnesota as opposed to taking a side, even though I do feel
26:39the Twins have the better pitcher on the mound tonight.
26:42DRS, you mentioned some of the offense for the athletics. Larry Butler is fantastic. Jacob
26:47Wilson having a great rookie season in the bigs. Right now, to win the American League
26:51Rookie of the Year, the A's, Jacob Wilson, is minus 440 to win the hardware. But big news,
26:57of course, over the weekend, late last night, Jack Caglione has been called up by the Kansas
27:02City Royals, the sixth overall pick in last summer's MLB draft. In July, he is now already on
27:09his way up to the major leagues. He has been sensational in minor league ball. The Royals
27:15off today, on the road tomorrow, starting a rivalry week against the St. Louis Cardinals
27:21in the Show Me State Showdown against the Redbirds, who have been great this year. Notice the number,
27:26Jacob Wilson, minus 440. Caglione at this moment, second best price before his Major League Baseball
27:33career debut at 12 to 1 to win AL Rookie of the Year. Now, I did mention we would talk about the
27:40White Sox in comparison to the Rockies. Chicago, worst team in the modern era of Major League
27:46Baseball. Modern era, by the way, is not like 1984. It dates all the way back to 1901. Chicago last year,
27:5341-121. Worst team again in the modern era of Major League Baseball history. What was Chicago's mark
28:02at the 59-game mark of the 2024 campaign? 15-44. This year, they're just 18-41, by the way,
28:11but 15-44 last year. It took them until June 10, DRS, the White Sox, a season ago, to lose 50 games.
28:19The Rockies are already there as of June 1st in that 59-game mark. Nine in 50 is the record for
28:28the Rocks. The worst through 59 games in the modern era of Major League Baseball. On pace to lose 137
28:36games. And now riding their fourth different eight-game losing skid of this season. Might it
28:43end tonight, DRS in South Florida against the Marlins? Eh, the odds maker is not so certain. Minus 200,
28:51the price you see on your screen. It's still close to that. Minus 198. What's the play in Miami today?
28:59So numbers wild here, even for the Marlins, minus 200. Now, Max Meyer does have some pedigree, but how
29:04about this, Ben? It was the last six starts, only one good start. They get five bad starts, one good start,
29:08and then all of a sudden, you're with the Marlins and you're a heavy favorite at minus 200. Just shows
29:12you how bad the Colorado Rockies have been. I lost yesterday on a team total with the Marlins at
29:16three and a half, which they stranded the bases loaded in the seventh and eighth innings. Just
29:20needed one base hit away. Would have clipped that one, but weren't able to do it. But as I said,
29:23Max Meyer, not a great last 30 days. And you got four hitters in the lineup. Beck, Tovar,
29:27Goodman, and McMahon, all high elevated ISO power numbers and weighted on base percentages
29:32against right-handed pitching over the past month. If we flip it over to Miami, the lineup actually
29:36looks good. Look at yesterday, they just weren't able to get a hook. They still had nine base hits
29:39yesterday, but only two runs. That should change because Hermon Marquez is on the mound, one of
29:44the worst pitchers in Major League Baseball, particularly because of his high X-fifth numbers
29:47and inability to get out right-handed batters. Take a look at this. Jesus Sanchez, Otto Lopez,
29:52Augustin Ramirez, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, and Liam Hicks, all sky high. ISO power numbers and
29:58weighted on base percentages. And for the most part of the lineup, pretty good walk numbers and low K
30:02rates here. We should get some runs in South Beach tonight. I look at that minus 200. I just
30:07want to fade the Rockies. Not necessarily, but I take a look at that eight and say to myself,
30:11with these two pitchers here, I know it's a big ballpark. Why can't we get eight plus runs in this
30:15game and cash a ticket on the over? The batters to them seem like tonight, they should have the
30:20advantage. Now, I have not checked into these numbers, but you would almost have to assume
30:25this is the first game for the fish. This year is nearly a $2 minus money, money line favorite.
30:31Miami is 23 and 34 this season. They are 11 games below 500. They are in the cellar of the National
30:38League East. They have a minus run differential, a negative run differential of minus 79. Second
30:45worst in the NL. Of course, Colorado at minus 185 in the Winston baseball. Tom Vecchio next.
30:52A theme for us, Vecchio, throughout this Monday following the World Series rematch in LA over the
30:57weekend, the Dodgers and the Yankees. Was it not just a rematch, but a potential preview? Do you
31:03believe it will be the Dodgers and the Yankees once again in a World Series in 2025?
31:08I have a couple of positions on the Dodgers in terms of NLCS matchups, Dodgers to beat the Mets,
31:13Mets to beat the Dodgers. I've talked about plenty of times, but I really do like the Tigers
31:17and looking to the Dodgers to beat the Tigers at 14 to 1 direct World Series outcome. I think
31:22is really interesting, and obviously, that will develop as the summer goes on.
31:27And that would be great for me as well, Vecchio, with my Tigers 10 to 1 number from opening day
31:31to win the American League pennant. He is TV Tom Vecchio, and we appreciate his time always.
31:36That does it for this Monday on the Early Line. Show returns tomorrow at 8am Eastern.
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