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00:00DLS basically two months into this MLB season.
00:03Yeah, you know, rocking and rolling as you go.
00:05You see the teams start to separate themselves.
00:06You've got some really good division action.
00:08The NLEs will certainly start heating up.
00:10By the way, the NLEs, you've got a monster series,
00:12which we're going to talk about a little bit later in the show,
00:14between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves.
00:16The Phillies still in first place.
00:17The Mets, you know, sort of right behind them.
00:19But the Braves are in that wavelength like eight and a half games back.
00:22The Phillies in Philadelphia win that series
00:24and can put the Braves roughly ten games back.
00:26That's going to be hard to overcome.
00:27So it's almost like a must-win series for the Braves
00:30with great pitching matchups.
00:31But it's fun to watch the evolution of Major League Baseball.
00:33And by the way, wasn't that hot of a month here of May?
00:36And hopefully it starts to turn.
00:37You've got some decent weather situations.
00:39But as I look, you know, still temperatures in the low 60s.
00:42You're waiting for that to turn on to at least the mid-70s and the 80s
00:44where that ball can really carry at this point.
00:46So the ebbs and flows of April to May have been interesting.
00:49So maybe June gets a little bit hotter.
00:51And certainly some of those statistics hold up.
00:53DRS, after rivalry weekend, the Atlanta Braves,
00:56who had taken two of three against the Boston Red Sox,
00:59the teams that used to hail from that same city, were 24-23.
01:03Of course, the story for Atlanta this season, off to the 0-7 start,
01:07injuries being a big component.
01:09Spencer Strato was back.
01:10Then he was injured.
01:11Then he came back last week.
01:12Ronald Acuna Jr. made his return in his season debut in 2025 last week as well.
01:17And on the very first pitch that he saw, he hit a home run.
01:21The theatrics there for the 2023 NL MVP winner.
01:25But based on some of that uncharacteristic Mayweather,
01:28the Braves have only played five games in the last nine days or so.
01:33And Atlanta has dropped a few of them.
01:35So the Braves now two games below .500, 25-27,
01:39before they start their midweek set against their NL East divisional foe in the Philadelphia Phillies.
01:45This week in Philadelphia and starting on this Tuesday night.
01:48It also gives us a moment, about two months into this MLB season.
01:52Most teams have played at least 53, 54 games around the major leagues.
01:57Of course, we still have a lot to go in 162.
02:01But DRS, we can update those World Series odds in what we have seen so far.
02:05Of course, one of the main storylines entering this season,
02:08with how loaded a roster the L.A. Dodgers have once again,
02:12the reigning World Series champs were a plus-2.40 price to win a second consecutive World Series crown in 2025.
02:20They've moved back by a dime now at plus-2.50,
02:23but still a ton shorter than anybody else, DRS, really around Major League Baseball.
02:28And then, right, rightfully so.
02:29Mark the movement here, as you see that graphic coming up here,
02:32and the movement based on opening day.
02:33You say, well, why haven't the Dodgers?
02:35Like, they haven't...
02:36Some people probably thought the Dodgers had like three or four losses at this point,
02:39because how devastating their offseason was against Major League Baseball.
02:41But understand this.
02:43I always like to say, Ben, like, the worst teams win 60 games.
02:45Like, you don't even think that's possible with some of the rosters that are out there.
02:48But it's baseball.
02:49You win two out of three games in a series, that's absolutely doing your job.
02:52When you focus on the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Phillies, the Mets, the Tigers,
02:55it's not who's going to win the regular season.
02:57It's how your team is going to match up in the playoffs once you get there,
03:00which means, what does your starting rotation look like?
03:02So you look at the Dodgers.
03:03They're very talented.
03:04They just have to be healthy,
03:05and they're probably going to add an extra pitcher at the deadline if they need that.
03:08New York Yankees getting some really good pitching.
03:10Max Friedman's been sensational.
03:11Imagine if they had Garrett Cole on this team as well.
03:14Rodon's starting to come back into form.
03:15The Philadelphia Phillies, maybe the best overall rotation in baseball.
03:18Then you have the Mets there, which is sort of that outlier.
03:20Not big names, but performing extremely well.
03:23And then you see the Tigers.
03:24Like, hey, I've got a Tigers win.
03:25I don't know.
03:25You want scuba on the mound game number one to face your team?
03:27You're probably 0-1.
03:28I don't care what your team is, including the Los Angeles Dodgers,
03:31with how good he's been.
03:32Same thing with the Braves.
03:33Schwellenbach, one of those pitchers you're looking as a young pitcher to start to perform.
03:36Strider coming back from an injury.
03:38Chris Sale already on that team last year winning the Cy Young Award.
03:41So you're basing this not on the fun of the baseball team in the 1-9.
03:45It's more of the starting pitching.
03:47Once you get to the playoffs, that's where you win.
03:49And the Dodgers did a plus-250 price.
03:51I don't care if the Dodgers lose five games in a row.
03:52What are they going to drop to?
03:53Plus-260?
03:54It doesn't matter.
03:55You're looking at what the anticipation is going to be in late September, early October
03:59with these baseball teams.
04:00The Dodgers dropped their final two games of a weekend set in Queens against the New York
04:05Mets in a marquee matchup over the weekend.
04:07But still 33-21.
04:09The Dodgers tied for the second-best record around the NL alongside the New York Mets and
04:14the Chicago Cubs, who are in first place in the National League Central.
04:17Best record, of course, in the NL.
04:2034-19, I believe that number is, for the Philadelphia Phillies.
04:24Let's double-check that.
04:25Yep, 34-19, best record in the National League for Philly.
04:29On that market movement graphic of the World Series odds, the Dodgers still have moved back
04:33by 10 cents.
04:35But that next-best price is a 6-1 number on the New York Yankees.
04:39The Dodgers still half that and then take off an additional dollar, and that's where you
04:43get to L.A.
04:44Those top three teams, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, three shortest prices, our three frontrunners
04:50entering this 2025 MLB season.
04:53We have talked about the Braves moving back, DRS.
04:55No team in Major League Baseball history has started 0-7 and reached the postseason.
05:00Feels slightly different based on the preseason expectation for Atlanta.
05:04All the talent the Braves have on the roster, and you would expect a better health with Ronald
05:09Acuna Jr.
05:09and Spencer Strider now back in the rotation.
05:12But they're still playing from a huge deficit, and they're still two games below .500 at .25
05:17and .27.
05:19I'm not sure they can win the National League East, as you said, a critical late-May midweek
05:24series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
05:26But I think the question for the Braves now in the expanded postseason in the NL is can they
05:31even earn a playoff spot?
05:32I think they can.
05:33Because again, you're looking at one of the better front offices in Major League Baseball,
05:36coupled with the fact they have a lot of talent and a lot of talent just coming back.
05:39The expectations for Spencer Strider by August and September, back in Cy Young form.
05:44The expectations for Ronald Acuna, right off the bat as an MVP candidate because he's
05:47rocketing baseballs into the seats already.
05:50But understand this, though.
05:51You can't dig yourself that big of a grave to start the season.
05:54They've already overcame it one time and sort of battled back, but now starting to slip.
05:58If you go into Philadelphia, and let's say worst-case scenario, they're eight and a half
06:01games back right now.
06:02They're 11 and a half games back by the time you start June.
06:05I don't care what team you are.
06:06You are not going to overcome that.
06:07And I think we even asked last week, was it like one of the polls was, you know, would
06:11you take the Braves to win the NL East?
06:13They were five and a half games back.
06:14And I said, no.
06:15Now they're eight and a half games back.
06:16With Strider back and also with Ronald Acuna.
06:18Things certainly haven't turned their direction, but they can only dig themselves out by winning
06:22series and just sort of slow playing it.
06:24Hey, you're back eight and a half games.
06:26Why not by the time mid-June, you're back six and a half games?
06:28By the time you hit the All-Star break, it's four and a half games.
06:30That's what you have to do.
06:31But it starts this week, and that's not a home series for them.
06:33It's in Philadelphia.
06:34And Philadelphia, the best starting rotation in baseball.
06:37You're not, hey, we got lucky here on the Phillies who they're going to start.
06:39It doesn't matter.
06:40Every single day, the Phillies roll out a quality All-Star caliber starter to go against your
06:44team here.
06:45They're going to need a big effort to get through Philadelphia.
06:47A really big one tonight at the bank.
06:49It's Ranger Suarez getting the start for Philadelphia.
06:50He's been great.
06:51Spencer Strider on the other side in start number two since yet another return from the
06:56IL.
06:57The Yankees are the favorites out of the American League.
07:00The Yankees are the favorites, or at least that second best place, to win a World Series
07:04only behind the Dodgers.
07:05That price has been slashed by three bucks, nine to one before the year.
07:09DRS now plus 600.
07:11The Yankees playing really good baseball at this moment.
07:14The Pinstripes have won six consecutive series.
07:16They've won 14 of their last 18 games.
07:18Yeah, and we'll see if they make any moves at the deadline.
07:20But Max Fried has been awesome since coming over from the Atlanta Braves.
07:23But also understand this.
07:24We were sort of questioning what that lineup was going to look at.
07:27Because opening day, it's like, all right, you're not going to have Stanton there.
07:28We know Judge is going to be good.
07:30Who's going to replace Soto?
07:31A lot of players stepping up.
07:33And how about this?
07:34301 scored, leading the American League in the run scoring category.
07:37That is massive, man.
07:38If the Yankees pound away at the plate, their bullpen's going to recover, and they'll add
07:42players to that starting rotation if they need it.
07:44The Yankees are the best team, to me, in the American League.
07:46Well, talk about those bottom three teams on that market movement graphic.
07:50They have been the biggest movers so far this year.
07:52Some good.
07:53And in Baltimore, it's been very bad.
07:55More next.
07:56Live right here on this Tuesday morning on the early line on SportsGrid following Memorial
08:01Day weekend.
08:01We take a look at where the World Series odds, dependent odds are around Major League Baseball
08:07with the unofficial kickoff to summer as we get deeper into this year in MLB.
08:13DRS and our World Series Market Movement Board.
08:15We showed you the three frontrunners entering the year and where their odds have changed.
08:19The Dodgers, still a short favorite.
08:21The Yankees, who had the best price of any AL team, now even shorter at 6-1, playing really
08:26good baseball.
08:27The Braves have seen some movement against them, but only by $5.50, which is a little
08:32bit surprising, as Atlanta started 0-7, and it's still two games sub-500.
08:37But those bottom three teams, that is the biggest movement around Major League Baseball.
08:42Let's start with the good, right?
08:43Let's highlight the positive.
08:45The Detroit Tigers, the best record in all of MLB.
08:4835-20, a full game advantage in the AL over the New York Yankees, and a full game advantage
08:54also over the Philadelphia Phillies for that best mark in Major League Baseball.
09:00The Detroit Tigers have plenty of young talent offensively, and at this moment, DRS, they've
09:05got the best pitcher in baseball in Tarek Skubal, the reigning American League Cy Young
09:09winner, who had one of the gems of his career over the weekend for Detroit, and continues
09:13to look the part of that best pitcher, the best ace in all of MLB.
09:17Yeah, in a short series, you don't want to face really good pitching, and he's a really
09:20good pitcher that you're going to face right off the bat at that point.
09:23But also understand this.
09:24You're looking at a lineup that over the past couple years had talent, but just couldn't
09:27put it together.
09:28And you're also getting really good seasons by Javi Baez, one of those guys really cast
09:31off.
09:32Crazy.
09:32Big name, free agent.
09:33Let's sign him up and see what happens.
09:34And it really didn't work out.
09:36Now he's batting in the nine hole and absolutely scorching the baseball on a day-to-day basis.
09:40He's got Glaber Torres in the two spot.
09:41But the important guys, the guys that you're building around, the Kerry Carpenters, the Cole Keiths,
09:45the Rodley Greens, the Spencer Torkelson, a high draft pick just a few short years ago.
09:49Those guys are starting to hit.
09:50Coupled with a bullpen that's holding up, you've got a nice lineup with a great mix of
09:54left-handed batters and right-handed batters and the front end starting pitching.
09:57Why not?
09:58Like we asked again last week on a poll, like, do you really think that Detroit is going
10:01to be one of those teams that you can contend for a championship?
10:04And off the bat, you probably just say no because it's Detroit and what do you have?
10:07But look around Major League Baseball, which includes the American League.
10:10They're right up there with the Yankees.
10:11They can go toe-to-toe with the Yankees pitching, and we'll see what some of the changes made
10:14by midseason at the trade deadline and towards the end of September with some of those call-ups.
10:19But for me, I really like what I see in the Detroit Tigers because why?
10:22Front-end pitching with talent starting to come about in the 1-9.
10:25It's a fun baseball team to watch, and they're playing great baseball to start the season.
10:28Jack Flaherty right behind him there in that rotation.
10:31Of course, Flaherty, who was once in Detroit last year with the Dodgers, started game number
10:35one of the World Series for L.A., so he will not shy away from those moments in October,
10:41perhaps even early November.
10:42Tarek Skubel and a matchup over the weekend over AL Central foe the Cleveland Guardians.
10:47First complete game shutout of his career.
10:50Nine innings of work, only two base knocks.
10:52Of course, did not allow a single-earned run with 13 Ks.
10:57And one of the final pitches that he had of the game, maybe his final pitch in that matchup
11:02was still north of 100 miles per hour.
11:04He was absolutely filthy.
11:07He is now an even-money favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award for a second
11:12consecutive year.
11:13So the Tigers 30-1 before the year, now 12-1 to win that World Series, and certainly looking
11:19the part of a true pennant contender in the American League in the World Series as a whole.
11:24That other 30-1 price, but in the other league, DRS, same division, NL Central, that would
11:29be the Chicago Cubs.
11:3130-1, now slashed in half, 15-1.
11:34One of the best offenses in the bigs, with one of the brightest young offensive stars in
11:39Major League Baseball.
11:40That would be Pete Crow Armstrong for the Cubbies.
11:42Yeah, fun team.
11:43And also, you're taking a look at them losing one of their starting pitchers that they expected
11:46to be their ace.
11:47No longer with them.
11:48It's a big-money club.
11:49Sometimes they don't spend big money as they should in Chicago, but they should this year
11:53because that lineup can absolutely hit against the best in baseball from a perspective of
11:58good young talent here, making shrewd decisions in the offseason, bringing in players that
12:01make a lot of sense, and you're seeing that come to the forefront right now.
12:05They should be able to win their division, which means home playoff baseball for the
12:08Chicago Cubs.
12:09And one of the best atmospheres in Major League Baseball, if you can make it to the playoffs,
12:13would be the Cubs and the friendly confines of Wrigley Field and those fans.
12:16I like what I see out of the Chicago Cubs, not knocking them at all, just on a day-to-day basis.
12:20Where's the wind blowing in?
12:21Is it out?
12:22But that team can absolutely rake.
12:23And PCA in that team, I look and he's hitting around 290-ish on the season.
12:27It feels like he's hitting 690.
12:29Every time I watch a highlight, it's Pete Crow Armstrong here, knocking a baseball out of
12:33the park, a trip off the wall, an RBI single, just making the plays he has to make.
12:37So I'm a big fan of the Chicago Cubs right now, Ben.
12:39He and Seah Suzuki, each with 14 home runs, each with at least 48 ribbies as well.
12:44PCA has 48.
12:46Seah Suzuki, the leader for Chicago with 49 runs batted in.
12:50Not to mention the great offseason acquisition in Kyle Tucker, who's got 12 homers and 39
12:55RBIs for the Cubbies as well.
12:57The question is the starting pitching for Chicago with Justin Steele out for the remainder
13:02or a good majority of this season.
13:04Shota Iminaga needs to be there as well for Chicago.
13:08The biggest movement in a really, really bad way, but the biggest movement overall, the
13:12Baltimore Orioles, 16 to 1 DRS to win the World Series before this year.
13:18Second best price to win the World Series of any team from the AL is now 300 to 1.
13:24They have fired their manager, Brendan Hyde.
13:26They don't have starting pitching really at all.
13:29And even their bright offensive stars struggling in a mighty way this season.
13:3519 and 34, the record for Baltimore.
13:38Second worst in the American League.
13:41Only two and a half games better than the Chicago White Sox as well.
13:45It has been a disastrous season for the O's.
13:48No, it certainly has.
13:49And everything has been a letdown from their starting lineup, one through nine, right to
13:52their pitching staff losing starting pitchers from last year.
13:54Oh, we used to be able to make that up.
13:56They haven't been able to do that.
13:57Now, granted, they have some injuries here, so they're starting pitching and more importantly
13:59into that lineup where a couple of guys that you feel would have been to play a big part
14:03in 2025 haven't been there just yet here.
14:06And they will.
14:07But Jackson Holliday's been very good, moved into the leadoff spot here.
14:09Still have Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O'Hearn and Mountcastle.
14:12There's a lot of really good components.
14:14There's just nothing you can really put your finger on because people get injured in Major
14:17League Baseball.
14:18Teams get injured.
14:18That's what happens.
14:19It's just a matter of you have enough organizational depth just to hold you above like 500 or a couple
14:25games below it.
14:26But they've been so bad in the expectations where we might be one of the best teams in
14:30Major League Baseball, if not the American League, to be one of the worst teams in Major
14:33League Baseball, and particularly in the American League.
14:35I can't put my finger on it right now, but granted, they should be a good team this summer.
14:39Once you start getting that heat and humidity down in Baltimore, that lineup one through
14:41nine gets in.
14:43Maybe you're starting to look at those seven to six, eight to six type ballgames where they
14:46can out hit their opponents.
14:47They've got a long way to go to make up some of that damage.
14:49A playoff team in each of the past two seasons.
14:52The one seed in the American League postseason two years ago, it was trying to get that playoff
14:57momentum and capitalize on their experience.
15:0019 and 34 in a negative run differential of negative 92.
15:05Second worst in the bigs.
15:07The only team who has a worst one.
15:09That's the Colorado Rockies at minus 173 and a 9 and 45 record.
15:13More around the bigs next.
15:14So in our World Series odds in the market movement board, one team that was notably
15:19absent DRS, your Philadelphia Phillies at a plus 950 price.
15:24The Phillies have the third best number currently to win the World Series.
15:27The reason they were not on the market movement board, they were not any of our three front
15:32runners entering this season.
15:33It was the Dodgers, Yankees, and the Braves.
15:36And then the largest movement that we had seen for the Tigers and the Cubs in a good way
15:40in the Baltimore Orioles in a very, very, very, very bad way.
15:44The Phillies entered this year, though, still as a team, we expected to contend for the
15:48National League pennant and a World Series championship at a 10 to 1 price.
15:52That number now down by a half bucket plus 950.
15:56Second best price to win the National League pennant, only behind the Dodgers.
16:00Second best price out of an NL team, of course, to win the World Series.
16:04Third best overall.
16:05And in terms of the best, Philadelphia has the best record in the National League at 34 and
16:1119.
16:11And perhaps DRS, I think you could make an argument, staff one through three, one through
16:16four, heck, maybe even one through five right now, the best starting rotation in Major League
16:20Baseball.
16:20Yeah, you take a look at that rotation.
16:22Zach Wheeler's an absolute machine every single game.
16:24You expect him to go six to seven innings out there, maybe give up a max of one or two
16:28runs and put your team in contention for a victory.
16:30Then you have Jesus Lozardo, who the Phillies in the offseason made a trade for.
16:33He's been nothing short of absolutely spectacular.
16:36You take a look at Christopher Sanchez.
16:37Last year really came into his own pitching very well again this year.
16:40And Ranger Suarez had an unbelievable start to 2024, then sort of got injured with that
16:45back injury, coming back after his first start.
16:47He's been fantastic.
16:48And Aaron Nola's on the I.L. with that ankle injury, going to take a little bit longer to
16:52come back.
16:52But also understand this, bring up Mick Abel out of that, you know, farm system.
16:56Had a great start here.
16:57But also one of the better prospects in baseball is expected to come back after a Tommy John
17:01surgery two years ago and is pitching extremely well in the minor leagues.
17:04That's Andrew Painter.
17:05So the rich get richer in that starting rotation for them.
17:08But the questions are going to come up.
17:10How can that bullpen certainly hold on with Jose Alvarado down for 80 games?
17:13Won't be available for the playoffs.
17:15That could be an issue moving forward.
17:16But also that one through nine lineup right now with Trey Turner.
17:19Look at all the money.
17:20$300 million contract hasn't really come to fruition.
17:22And it hasn't until the past couple of weeks.
17:24He's been nothing short of great.
17:25Kyle Schwerber is absolutely crushing the baseball.
17:28So I have Bryce Harper and a lot of good players in that lineup.
17:31If the Phillies can find sort of that leveling ground here for that bullpen, why not win a
17:36championship?
17:37If it's about starting rotation, getting to the playoffs, and it's about players that
17:40can be clutch in the playoffs, the Phillies have that in spades.
17:43And if you have not been paying a ton of attention, you probably hear Philadelphia Phillies
17:47postseason staff starting rotation and think, yeah, the one-two of Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
17:51It's not even Aaron Nola anymore.
17:53And yet the Philadelphia Phillies continue to get it done with their arms in that starting
17:58staff for Rob Thompson.
17:59When you look at what this Philadelphia team has done as well, DRS, they did lose in the
18:03division series last year against their bitter foes in the New York Mets.
18:07But of course, the previous two years at least reaching the NLCS as well.
18:12And a pennant now three seasons or four seasons ago.
18:16Let's talk some of the individual award favorites right now around Major League Baseball.
18:21Aaron Judge, minus $3,000 to win the American League MVP award.
18:26And Shohei Ohtani on the other side, minus $135,000 to win the NL MVP.
18:31Of course, that seems to be, in the National League side of things, DRS, a more competitive
18:35race.
18:36Should we just gift Aaron Judge his third MVP award already in the last four years?
18:40Minus $3,000 after two months with roughly four months left to go in the season.
18:43You have a ankle injury.
18:45You have a hamstring injury.
18:46You have any sort of injury.
18:48That certainly puts that in a crutch.
18:49And it's crazy to see that price that high.
18:51Like Bobby Witt Jr. is second at 15 to 1.
18:53After that, it's a 90 to 1 price point on guys like Gunnar Henderson and Jose Ramirez
18:57and Cal Rowley and the likes here.
18:59It's crazy because you say to yourself, OK, well, I don't want to bet Aaron Judge.
19:02Well, OK, outside of Bobby Witt, who do you want to bet at this point?
19:05Like, it's Aaron Judge by a wide margin.
19:07If he just stays healthy, he is going to win it.
19:09But no time am I looking at a minus $3,000 saying, that makes sense because you can get
19:14injured.
19:14And if you do, you're not winning the MVP.
19:16I don't care.
19:17And I say gift to Aaron Judge.
19:18It's not a gift.
19:19You're not giving him anything just based on notoriety or name alone.
19:24Of course, with his performance this year, he is certainly earning and deserving it.
19:28I'm saying gift as in, is the race already done by the time we get to the end of May?
19:33It is certainly looking like that.
19:35If all things considered, health stays there for Aaron Judge, and we assume that to be
19:39the case.
19:40How about the National League MVP award?
19:43Shohei Ohtani, minus $1.35.
19:44We thought Shohei would be back on the bump in 2025.
19:48Not just yet.
19:49But is his performance at the dish as a DH good enough to win this award for a second
19:54straight season?
19:54Yeah, we talked about this on pro baseball today.
19:56He was low as a minus $1.10 price point like two days ago.
19:58Now hitting more home runs, increasing that lead.
20:00But also understand this.
20:01He's going to get back to the mound this year.
20:03We know if he's going to be starting.
20:04But if you just add him in as a reliever or a spot starter or every seventh day on the
20:08mound, that minus $1.35 is going to be an absolute bargain.
20:11You know he's going to hit this year.
20:13You know he's probably going to hit 50 bombs.
20:15And he's going to be back on the mound.
20:16Who's touching the guy?
20:17Nobody.
20:18The price points between minus $3,000, which I agree with Judge should be the favorite,
20:21just not that high.
20:22But Ohtani at minus $1.35 when he's going to start pitching again, sky's the limit, man.
20:27What a price.
20:28MLB lead for Ohtani.
20:2919 home runs this season.
20:32More on the early live comes your way next.
20:34Let's get you ready for a full slate around Major League Baseball on this Tuesday.
20:38Plenty of marquee matchups following Memorial Day weekend.
20:42And for a ton of these teams in action today, DRS, 12 games yesterday in the bigs.
20:47The midweek series continues on.
20:49Yesterday in Motown, the Tigers take a 3-1 victory in game number one of their set against
20:56the San Francisco Giants to add on to the best record in baseball.
20:59The Tigers now 35-20.
21:03Full game advantage over the Yankees and the Phillies for that best mark in MLB.
21:08Really good pitching matchup today in the Motor City between the Tigers and the Giants.
21:13As the ace for San Francisco, Logan Webb gets the nod in ace number two,
21:17or at least their second starter for Detroit.
21:20Jack Flaherty out there on the bump.
21:22Total standing at seven.
21:23Pretty good juice on the over DRS.
21:25What can we expect today in this Detroit duel?
21:28Yeah, take a look at the minus 118 present.
21:30Wait a second.
21:31Detroit's one of the better teams in the American League.
21:32Why would they be underdogs?
21:33They have the better pitcher on the mountain.
21:34And it's Logan Webb.
21:35You take a look at on the season so far.
21:37252 batters that he has faced having an ISO power number against of only 077
21:41and a weighted-on-base percentage of 266.
21:44Over the previous 30 days, 109 batters that he's faced having an 088 ISO power number
21:49and a 274 weighted-on-base percentage.
21:51Now, over the past 30 days, he's faced 41 left-handed batters.
21:55194 ISO weighted-on-base percentage 329.
21:57Those are elevated from what we saw over the first half of the Major League Baseball season.
22:01You got a lot of really good left-handed batters, as we talked about earlier in the show here,
22:04for the Detroit Tigers, Kerry Carpenter, Colton Keith.
22:07You take a look at Riley Green, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney.
22:09They'll be able to combat him.
22:10But here's the issue that's going to be a little bit tougher.
22:12San Francisco Giants, that offense, which was, for me, a little bit more advantageous
22:16over the first, let's just say, month of the season than the second month of the season.
22:19You take a look at Jack Flaherty.
22:20He can be hit.
22:21You take a look at his last 83 batters that he's faced at 312 ISO
22:25and a weighted-on-base percentage of 412.
22:27That's incredible here.
22:28But the fact is, somebody's got to be able to detonate that guy,
22:31and that means a lineup that should be able to produce.
22:33Now, temperatures today are going to be okay.
22:3569 degrees, you'll take that.
22:37But the wind blowing in from right field at double digits at 10 miles per hour,
22:40that's going to hurt.
22:41So if you're saying to yourself, are you going to get a lefty batter or a righty batter
22:44here to attack Jack Flaherty?
22:45You look at the lineup.
22:46Elliot Ramos, 60 at-bats here.
22:48A 212 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 482.
22:51Makes some sense.
22:52Willie Adamas has had a very good start to the season.
22:54His last 69 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
22:57How about a 322 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 402?
23:00After that, though, Wilmer Flores does have a weighted-on-base percentage
23:03that's decent, Tyler Fitzgerald, but nobody else here.
23:06Like, Jung-Hoo Lee, one of my favorite batters to start the season,
23:08has really been on a downturn.
23:1064 at-bats band against right-handed pitching.
23:12How about a 113 ISO and a 250 weighted-on-base percentage over the past month?
23:16That's why you're seeing the favorites here, saying, all right,
23:18it's going to be the Giants have the better pitcher on the mound.
23:20You should be able to hit Flaherty, but there's a lot of question marks in that lineup.
23:23If that lineup was firing on full cylinders,
23:25you might be looking at minus 130, minus 135 as a favorite towards the Giants.
23:28It's hard to take that Giants lineup, but I do always trust the pitching,
23:32so I'm going to take the San Francisco Giants as the slight favorite,
23:35even though I really like this Detroit team.
23:3631-23 for San Francisco in the highly competitive National League West.
23:41They are tied right now with the Padres, both teams two games back,
23:44of their California and divisional foes in the L.A. Dodgers atop that division.
23:49But DRS, Detroit over the weekend, courtesy of that Tarek Skubal gem,
23:53in the complete game shutout with 13 Ks on Sunday,
23:56avoiding a four-game sweep against their divisional foes we'll talk about in just a moment.
24:02The Tigers now have won two straight because of the victory yesterday
24:05in the opener against San Francisco.
24:07Again, the Tigers' best record in the American League,
24:10in Major League Baseball, and in the AL Central.
24:13But they were the series losers over the weekend against the Cleveland Guardians,
24:18who won the first three games of a four-game weekend set against Detroit.
24:22The Guardians also got beat yesterday, 7-2 by the L.A. Dodgers.
24:27Our second AL Central versus NL West matchup early on this week.
24:32The Dodgers on the road in Cleveland.
24:34Pretty good pitching matchup here where the Dodgers are a road favorite.
24:37Dustin May on the bump for L.A., minus 130.
24:40That updated money line price.
24:42Tanner Bybee on the other side for Cleveland.
24:44Total, eight and a half.
24:46What can we expect today in Cleveland?
24:47On the season, if you take a look at Bybee's statistics, don't look very good.
24:50The 214 batters that he's faced here, but an ISO power number against of 233
24:54and a weighted-on-base percentage of 346.
24:56Now, if you take a look at the 99 batters he's faced on the season from the left-hand side,
25:00keep in mind, Bybee is a right-handed pitcher.
25:02A 278 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 354 and not a great K number.
25:06Now, here's the interesting part.
25:08Over the past month of the season, he's faced 102 batters.
25:11You turn that 233 ISO power number now into 163.
25:14You turn that 346 weighted-on-base percentage into a 307,
25:17but still not striking out a lot of batters, which includes left-handed batters,
25:21only at 10%.
25:22That's always going to get you in trouble in Major League Baseball.
25:25If you take a look at the weather conditions today, 65 degrees, which isn't bad,
25:28but a wind blowing out double digits to left field, as we just talked about,
25:31that Detroit wind, which is warmer temperatures but blowing in at this point.
25:34You look at the Dodgers' lineup, and over the past 30 days,
25:37against right-handed pitching, it's just a smorgasbord out here, Ben, if I can use that.
25:41A 500 ISO for Itani.
25:42A 383 for Mookie Betts.
25:45480 for Freeman.
25:46Hernandez, 435.
25:47Muncie, 405.
25:48Paz, 383.
25:50Rushing, who only has eight at-bats, but still a 467 weighted-on-base percentage.
25:54And Tommy Edmond in the nine-hole at a 407.
25:56This team should be able to hit Tanner Bybee, which, again, brings me to my point,
26:00saying, okay, what's going to happen on the opposite side with Dustin May on the mound?
26:03Not a great pitcher, and over the past 30 days, his 44 batters that he's faced from the right side,
26:07a 263 ISO and a 430 weighted-on-base percentage.
26:10But he's been really clean against left-handed batters.
26:13Why is that important?
26:13Kwan's a lefty.
26:14Naylor's a lefty.
26:15Ramirez will be batting lefty.
26:16Manzarda's a lefty.
26:17Santana's a lefty.
26:18Schneeman's a lefty.
26:19And also Angel Martinez batting out of the nine-hole here as a lefty.
26:22So you're looking at possibly seven left-handed batters, which, again, you can't, you know,
26:26knock the formula because you want as many left-handed batters typically against right-handed pitching
26:30as you can get.
26:31But that's where Dustin May actually excels against left-handed batters as opposed to righties.
26:35So maybe a little bit detrimental for me.
26:37Probably going to be the Dodgers here.
26:38They should be able to hit.
26:38I'm not trusting that lineup for the Guardians to be able to hit.
26:41You know, that's either you or I are the sharpest handicappers in the world.
26:44We're market movers or we have the most loyal audience on the Sports Grid network you would
26:48ever see.
26:49But the lovely sponsor of our show, the FanDuel Sportsbook, has updated those MVP prices in
26:54dramatic ways since we discussed.
26:56Aaron Judge already at minus 3,000 to win the AL MVP after our conversation.
27:01Now minus 8,000 for Judge to win his own AL MVP award in the last four years.
27:07That's a ridiculous move.
27:09And even Shohei Ohtani, you talked about how his price was pretty good.
27:13I bet it after DRS acknowledged that number at minus 135 is now minus 190.
27:19Ohtani leading all of MLB with 19 dingers so far this year.
27:24It is Dinger Tuesday.
27:25I am pretty sure.
27:26DRS, two surprises around MLB this season.
27:29One good, the St. Louis Cardinals.
27:31Had a win total of 75 and a half.
27:33They're more than a third of the way there.
27:34They've got 30 wins already this year.
27:37Second best record in the NL Central.
27:39And we talked about how disappointing the Orioles have been 19 and 34.
27:43These two teams square off today in Baltimore.
27:46Basically a pick-em.
27:47What do you like?
27:48Yeah, Palante is hittable here for St. Louis.
27:50But also understand this.
27:51On the season, 213 batters that he's faced, a 188 ISO and a 333 weighted on base percentage.
27:56Over the past 30 days, that's increased to 189, slightly on the ISO power number.
28:00But 348 now on the weighted on base percentage, and right-handed batters are getting the best of them.
28:04However, looking at right-handed batters that are having really good numbers so far in this season,
28:08last 30 days, Ryan Mountcastle, okay.
28:11The rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired for me.
28:13Probably just going to roll with St. Louis at this point.
28:15Sagano's a decent pitcher, but their lineup actually matches up better in their pitching matchup today.
28:19So, there you go.
28:20I've got an under of the 75 and a half on St. Louis.
28:22Uh-oh.
28:23That deep.
28:24More than that.
28:24A big divisional duel starting this week in Philadelphia between the Phils and the Braves.
28:30DRS was talking about this series earlier on in the show.
28:33It starts tonight on a Tuesday evening at the bank in the city of brotherly love.
28:38Ranger Suarez gets the nod for Philadelphia.
28:41Spencer Strider on the other side and start number two after his return once again from the IL for Atlanta.
28:48It is basically a pick-em right now, DRS.
28:50Minus 112 in favor of the Phils on that money line price.
28:54Minus 104 of the updated numbers on the Braves on the other side.
28:58Over-understands at eight and a half.
29:00He talked about how critical this series is really for both sides.
29:04Philadelphia 34-19.
29:05Best record in the division.
29:07Best record in the National League.
29:09The Atlanta Braves after an 0-7 start.
29:11Still two games sub-500 at 25-27.
29:15It's early.
29:16It's barely the end of May, but still a lot of ground to be made up for Atlanta.
29:20Both in playoff consideration and certainly in this division.
29:24What do you expect in this critical series starting with game number one?
29:27That's a key question, right?
29:28Because you're taking a look here at Spencer Strider's statistics.
29:30And usually you want to lean on and say, oh, he's a great pitcher.
29:33There's a lot, you know, innings-wise here.
29:35We don't have that so far.
29:36Only 40 batters total faced on the season.
29:38And it hasn't been all that impressive, particularly from right-handed batters.
29:41But we're talking about 16 total in the season.
29:43One thing they like about the Philadelphia Phillies, they've really woken up at the plate.
29:46You take a look at above-average weighted-on-base percentages coming into tonight.
29:50It's Trey Turner.
29:51It's Bryce Harper.
29:51It's Kyle Schwarber.
29:52It's JT Romuto.
29:53Alec Bowman.
29:54Also Brandon Marsh.
29:55And also, they are at home.
29:5668-degree temperatures.
29:58Wind blowing out close to double digits from center field.
30:00So, a pretty good hitting night in Philadelphia.
30:02However, then you go up again with Ranger Suarez on the season.
30:0572 total batters he's faced because he came off the IL as well.
30:08Take a look at this.
30:09An 0-75 ISO against and a weighted-on-base percentage of 267.
30:13A high K rate and a super low walk rate.
30:15That really works in the Phillies' direction.
30:18Then you take a look at that lineup here for the Atlanta Braves over the past 30 days.
30:21Marcelo Zuna, Matt Olsen, and Sean Murphy.
30:24Above-average ISO slash weighted-on-base percentages.
30:27But the rest of the lineup has really struggled so far.
30:29I still give the advantage towards the Philadelphia Phillies.
30:31Pedigree pitching-wise, you expect Strider to have a good night.
30:34And yes, the Braves absolutely need this.
30:36But it really doesn't check out all that much.
30:38I lean towards the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, but it's a tough one.
30:41Suarez, we know, has come back pretty decent.
30:43Strider coming back, we're not so sure about.
30:45I'll give the edge to the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at home.
30:47Again, DRS, at the end of last weekend, rivalry weekend in Major League Baseball,
30:51the Red Sox and the Braves both hailing from Boston at a certain point.
30:55Atlanta won that series, taking two of three.
30:58They were back north of .500 a week ago Sunday, 24-23.
31:03They've only played based on some bad weather.
31:05Five games since and some scheduled off days.
31:08Of course, they are 1-4 in those five games to now be two games sub-500 at 25-23.
31:16The Philadelphia Phillies had their nine-game win streak snapped on Sunday against the A's,
31:21playing really good baseball.
31:23And of course, the best record in the National League at 34-19.
31:27We have talked about some disappointing teams so far this year, DRS.
31:31I think there's an argument to be made for the Texas Rangers as well,
31:34a team I know you were high on in terms of maybe contending for the American League pennant.
31:39Not the case for Texas so far.
31:41They are also below .500, but a dollar and a half favorite tonight in Arlington
31:45as Texas gets ready to take on Toronto.
31:48Minus .148.
31:50The price in favor of the Rangers now, a total of eight.
31:54What's the story here in this Texas test?
31:55The story is, Nathan Evaldi, and how good he's been this season so far.
31:58Take a look at 231 batters he's faced on the season at 078 ISO
32:02and a weighted on-base percentage of .215.
32:04Again, it's a K rate of close to 28% and a walk rate of under 5%.
32:08Then you take a look and say, well, how has he been over the past 30 days?
32:11If you take those 231 batters and shrink them to 92, it's actually been even better.
32:15An 078 ISO, which is microscopically low, down to an 046.
32:19A weighted on-base percentage of .215, down to a .199.
32:22Now, granted, Toronto does present itself very well at the plate here.
32:25Against right-handed pitching over the past month, that should help.
32:28But as always, you lean towards the better pitcher over the better lineup
32:31time and time again.
32:32You flip it to the other side.
32:33Bowdoin Francis on the mound.
32:34His last 30 days have been a disaster.
32:3688 total batters faced.
32:38A .329 ISO and a weighted on-base percentage of .446.
32:41And that includes both lefties and righties getting the best of them here.
32:45Not a great-looking lineup, though, today for the Texas Rangers.
32:47Jake Berger, probably the best of it.
32:49Haggard, he's only had nine at-bats to lead off here.
32:51He's got a .333 ISO, but how much can you take that with only nine at-bats?
32:5463 at-bats for Lankford.
32:56Average, Josh Smith.
32:57Average.
32:58I do still lean towards the better pitching tonight for Eovaldi.
33:01And looking at Bowdoin Francis, he should get hit, even by a lineup that doesn't present
33:04us up all that well.
33:06It's got to be the Rangers for me again.
33:07Yeah, DRS.
33:07Kind of yesterday in the opener of this series, the story for Texas this year.
33:11Jacob deGrom, a career first.
33:14Went five and a third yesterday.
33:15Only allowed two earned and just five base knocks.
33:18Did not record a strikeout for the first time in DeGrom's long and illustrious MLB career
33:24on the bump.
33:25And he also recorded a loss, despite only giving up two earned.
33:29Why?
33:30The Rangers only scored one.
33:31The pitching staff has been incredible this year, including Nathan Eovaldi.
33:35And yet, because of the Rangers struggling offensively, they are 26-29.
33:40Plenty more baseball breakdowns up next, along with Game 4 and Indy, here on the Early Line.
33:44Live right here on this Tuesday morning on the Early Line on Sports Grid, we just talked
33:51about the Rangers being slightly disappointing this year, 26-29, three-game sub-500.
33:56DRS around the American League West, only two teams above .500 with a winning record.
34:01The Seattle Mariners in the top spot in the division, and a game-and-a-half lead over the
34:06Houston Astros.
34:07We would expect the Astros to stack up a win today at home in H-Town.
34:11They're taking on the A's, not necessarily a shot at the Athletics.
34:16It's more about the starter for Houston.
34:18Hunter Brown has been otherworldly this year for the Strohs.
34:22They are greater than a $2-minus-money favorite.
34:24Minus $2.20 is that Moneyline number.
34:27Will it be another stellar outing for Hunter Brown in Houston?
34:30I think it probably will, and also leaning more towards the under than an over, which is
34:33like, hey, what are you doing with the Athletics here?
34:34We're not actually playing in Sacramento.
34:36We're playing in Houston.
34:37That roof will be closed.
34:37So the 85-degree temperature is probably not going to feel that here.
34:40But take a look at the last 30 days for Hunter Brown, an 0-67 ISO, and a weighted-on-base
34:44percentage of .226.
34:46Now, there are some good batters in that lineup here for Oakland, or excuse me, for Sacramento,
34:49but that's not really going to play into it for me.
34:52Now, let's flip to the other side here, because the lineup for the Houston Astros against right-handed
34:55pitchers is really starting to play better.
34:58But today, J.P. Sears is a left-handed pitcher.
35:01Him, over the past 30 days, how about 86 batters faced and a 1-11 ISO and a weighted-on-base
35:05percentage of .278?
35:06He's not a big strikeout guy, but doesn't give too many free passes.
35:09You look at the lineup today, Isak Paredes is knocking the cover off the baseball against
35:13lefties.
35:14But again, only 11 at-bats in the past 30 days.
35:16They really haven't faced many lefties.
35:18And by the way, the most at-bats in the lineup is 16, with Yainer Diaz, the catcher on this
35:22lineup.
35:22So it's not as if we can go backlogging 30, 40, 50, 60 at-bats, typically like you have
35:27against right-handed pitching.
35:28They just haven't seen many lefties.
35:29And that usually can catch you off guard maybe a time or two through the rotation.
35:33But if I'm looking at this game, I do think Houston wins it.
35:35I don't know if I want to pay the price, but I do think this game stays under the total,
35:38because both of these pitchers should have pretty solid nights here.
35:41Yeah, when you look at Hunter Brown, DRS, did I speak too soon on crowning him with a great
35:45season?
35:45His last start, he's actually recorded a loss in each of his previous two.
35:49But the first loss in this two-game losing skid was against Jacob DeGrom and Texas.
35:54He went eight innings, allowed a single earned run, and took a loss.
35:59He did allow three home runs in his most recent start, that being Hunter Brown, and gave up
36:04five total earned runs in that matchup against the Rays.
36:07But still this year, 6-3 with a 2-0-4 ERA, had a 1-4-3 ERA before that most recent start
36:14against the Rays.
36:15He has been really, really solid this year for Houston.
36:18Let's head out west to Anaheim.
36:20The Angels and the Yankees, the second game of their midweek set.
36:23DRS New York, one of the hottest teams in a large sample size right now in MLB.
36:28They have won 14 of their last 18, and they're a hefty favorite today on the road against
36:33the Halos.
36:33Now trending to a $2 price with Carlos Rodon on the bump.
36:37A minus 200 number in favor of New York on the money line.
36:40What can we expect tonight in Anaheim?
36:42Yeah, that should be that high of a favorite.
36:44Take a look at Carlos Rodon on the season.
36:46180 batters he's faced from the right-hand side.
36:48It's a 126 ice, so you want to wait it on base percentage of 246.
36:51Keep in mind, Rodon is a left-handed pitcher, absolutely dominating right-handed batters.
36:55If you look at the estimated lineup tonight, Chanwell will be in that lineup as a lefty,
36:58and that's it.
36:59Everybody else expected to be from the right side.
37:01That's an advantage.
37:02And also, sometimes you line up with the Angels or any other baseball team.
37:05Like, hey, man, they really do well against lefties.
37:07They haven't faced a lot of lefties over the past 30 days, and more importantly, they haven't
37:10hit lefties at all.
37:11Outside of Zach Neto leading off with maybe Taylor Ward, a lot of that lineup leaves a lot
37:14to be desired.
37:15Flip it over to the Yankees going up against Tyler Anderson, one of the higher ex-FIP guys
37:19in Major League Baseball to start this season.
37:21Struggling over the last 30 days against right-handed batters.
37:24Went over the first, you know, part of the season.
37:26It was actually left-handed batters, which is crazy.
37:28Left-handed pitcher struggling against lefties.
37:29He's now flipping it over to righties.
37:31And righties in the lineup today that have cracked left-handed pitching so far over the
37:34past 30 days.
37:35Paul Goldschmidt, how about that?
37:36A .667 ISO power number.
37:38Now, granted, only 17 at-bats there.
37:40Aaron Judge, only nine at-bats, but a .778 ISO power number here.
37:43You take a look at guys like Jason Dominguez, switch hitter tonight.
37:46Austin Wells from the lefty spot has done very well against left-handed pitching.
37:49They should win going away tonight, and pretty much not banked on the offense, per se, for
37:54the Yankees, but actually the pitching matchup here for the Yankees should be the fruit of
38:00the labor tonight for them.
38:01Despite going one of two at the dish, yesterday in the win over the Halos, a 5-1 victory in
38:06Anaheim.
38:07Aaron Judge below 400, 398.
38:11He actually dipped below 400 about a week ago after a Wednesday matchup with the Texas
38:16Rangers.
38:17He is trying to, of course, do that, and as the oddsmakers expect, at minus 8,000, win
38:22his third MVP award in the last four seasons in Major League Baseball.
38:27The Yankees are 14-4 in their last 18 games.
38:31They are on this West Coast road trip.
38:32They took the final two games of their weekend set at Coors against the Rockies.
38:36They've got two more, including today, against the Angels.
38:39A day off on Thursday in a marquee matchup, a potential World Series preview this weekend
38:45in downtown L.A. at Chavez Ravine against the L.A. Dodgers.