16 May - national forecast presented by Aidan McGivern
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00:00Hi there. It's amazing the difference a thin layer of low cloud can make to how the weather feels.
00:05We certainly saw that on Thursday with the UK divided into two areas of cloudy skies on one hand,
00:11sunny and warm weather on the other.
00:13And we'll see a similar theme emerge overnight and into the start of the weekend,
00:18an area of low cloud emerging from the North Sea and spreading widely across central
00:23as well as southern and eastern parts of the UK.
00:26It could reach as far as East Wales, parts of Dorset, Somerset perhaps,
00:32and it's certainly going to be extensive through the Midlands and eastern England,
00:36breaking up over the Pennines, so more patchy for northwest England.
00:39Likewise, it's likely to break up properly for western Scotland.
00:43Cloud-free skies remaining here and northern Ireland, clear skies also most likely.
00:48Under any clear skies, temperatures falling into the mid-single figures where we've got some shelter
00:53or even a little lower for some of the most sheltered spots across central and western Scotland.
00:59But we've got the cloud, 8 to 10 degrees and some patchy drizzle.
01:03First thing, most likely northeast England, southeast Scotland over east-facing hills.
01:09We've got high pressure still in charge, so on the whole that's going to keep things dry and settled throughout the weekend.
01:15The high pressure is not budging, but equally around that high we've got these northeasterly winds
01:19and that's the reason we're seeing a lot of low clouds spread westwards overnight.
01:24But by day, the sun will help to lift the cloud, break it up and burn it back to the east coast where it's likely to remain.
01:31Although it will be a slow process, some places not properly brighten up until the mid to late afternoon,
01:36for example, parts of the Midlands and northern England.
01:39Eventually, most likely, it will be cloudiest on the east coast, sunniest elsewhere.
01:46And in the sunshine, where we get a full day of sunshine, temperatures reaching 21 or 22 Celsius,
01:5323 or 24 possible for parts of western Scotland.
01:57That's likely to be the warm spot.
01:59But on Saturday night, it's likely that we'll repeat the whole thing again
02:04with the low cloud in the North Sea waiting until it gets dark
02:07and then creeping back inland across many eastern and central parts of the UK.
02:12Wouldn't want to be too clever about exactly where that cloud's going to end up
02:15because it's a thin layer, it's very fickle and it's difficult to model it in the computer models
02:22because it's so thin and tenuous.
02:24Nevertheless, it is most likely to spread into eastern and central parts of England,
02:28parts of eastern Scotland as well, clearest to the west.
02:31And we start off Sunday with, well, temperatures dipping to the mid-single figures again
02:37in western areas, eight or nine, where we've got the low cloud.
02:40But again on Sunday, even where we've got the low cloud to start things off,
02:45it does tend to retreat back to the east as temperatures rise inland.
02:50And so brightening up and largely sunny once more across the UK on Sunday,
02:56there's always the chance of a very isolated shower developing somewhere like the southern uplands.
03:02But, I mean, very few people would experience that if any.
03:07And for the vast majority of the UK, it's staying dry and it's staying sunny.
03:10And it's staying warm where we get the sunshine, temperatures up to the low 20s,
03:14perhaps somewhere like western Scotland, where we see long spells of sunshine
03:18and the easterly wind warming up as it passes over the hills to the east.
03:22There's a possibility of mid-20s Celsius.
03:26Then into Monday and Tuesday, I mentioned the odd shower in the south of Scotland,
03:31but there's always the chance of showers developing more widely on Monday and Tuesday
03:35before higher pressure brings fine weather through Wednesday
03:38and then a more definitive change to changeable weather late next week.