Week Ahead - What next after storm Brendan? 13/01/20 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

A wet and windy few days as strom Brendan hits. But are there signs of a big change by the weekend?

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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. Another winter week across

00:05the UK, another week of wind and rain. In fact, this week the wind and rain is likely

00:10to bring disruption, particularly during the next couple of days as Storm Brendan blows

00:14through. But bear with me because there are very promising signs for a big change in the

00:21weather towards the weekend. This is what we're facing as we start off the week. Storm

00:26Brendan there, tight isobars, low pressure surrounding the UK, another low turning up

00:31for Tuesday. But if I show you the pressure chart for Saturday, you can see a significant

00:36change. L replaced by H, high pressure, drier, calmer, but also colder. Plenty to talk about

00:42before we get there. Not least of all, how much Storm Brendan deepened during Sunday.

00:48This is the first signs of Storm Brendan on our satellite and you can see it turning into

00:52this deep swirl in the satellite imagery. And well, it's what we call a weather bomb.

00:58The isobars tightened up across this low centre, the pressure dropped in its centre by a significant

01:04amount in 24 hours. And now Storm Brendan is bearing down upon the UK, bringing wind

01:08and rain to all parts during the rest of Monday. Now, the windiest weather will clear through

01:15across England and Wales during Monday evening. But it's at this point that another swathe

01:20of potentially damaging gusts pushes into Western Scotland Monday evening, 80, possibly

01:26more in some of the most exposed spots in Western Scotland and likely to bring some

01:31coastal impacts with big waves coming in this direction as well. Not only will the wind

01:37send big waves and a surge in the sea across Western Scotland, but it will also drag cold

01:41air across northern UK. And that means that by Tuesday morning, we'll wake up to snow

01:47over the Scottish higher ground. North of the Central Belt, above two or three hundred

01:51metres, we're likely to see some heavy snowfall. And that's snow building up, six, possibly

01:56more centimetres of snow over the higher ground. Icy patches even down to lower levels as well.

02:01So some tricky conditions there as we start off the day in the north of Scotland. Elsewhere,

02:07drier for the first part of the day, but by the afternoon, more wet and windy weather

02:12sweeps in across England, Wales, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland. And as that

02:16rain bumps into the cold air further north, we're likely to again see some snow over the

02:20higher ground of the southern uplands, the Grampians, perhaps a few flakes over the Pennines.

02:25But it's staying mild in the south because we've got this strong south-westerly airflow

02:31and it's the winds that are the key feature for southern parts of Britain, England, Wales

02:35predominantly for Tuesday afternoon. It's not really Storm Brendan by this stage, it's

02:40another low, but actually, even though it won't be as deep, it's crossing central parts

02:45of Britain and so it's likely to bring stronger winds to parts of England and Wales compared

02:49to Storm Brendan. And this is a look at the wind gusts. Here's the key for Tuesday afternoon

02:54and evening. Quite tricky conditions there across much of England and Wales. Around exposed

02:58coasts and hills, likely to see 60 or 70 mile per hour wind gusts. Inland, 45 to 55 mile

03:05per hour wind gusts. And you can see the timing of it there for Tuesday evening into the south-east

03:10of England. And that will be combined with some heavy rainfall, some particularly lively

03:14weather there for the evening of Tuesday. And that rain building up, a yellow warning

03:19there for rain as well as the yellow warnings for wind. It's Dorset, Hampshire, that sort

03:25of area where we like to see the wettest weather, 20 to 40 millimetres in places. Now for the

03:31start of Wednesday, it's a wet and windy start for East Anglia and the south-east. The rain

03:35may take some time to clear, but it does clear eventually. Sunny spells following further

03:40blustery showers and very windy there again for the north and west of Scotland. Gales

03:44for exposed coasts and hills. It's blustery everywhere, but the best of the sunshine once

03:49the early rain is out of the way is across much of central and eastern England. The showers

03:53further north and west, pretty lively. Perhaps even the odd rumble of thunder in the north.

03:59Temperatures lowering, but still double figures in the south. A colder day again to come in

04:04the north. There's Brendan. It's still hanging around the north of the UK, but another low

04:08turns up for Thursday, bringing more wind and rain driven by an active jet stream. A

04:14dry start for many on Thursday, but it soon turns cloudy and breezy. And then the wet

04:18and windy weather sweeps in, particularly windy around Irish Sea coasts and the rainfall,

04:23again, heavy at times, virtually everywhere as it moves from west to east, taking much

04:28of the day to reach the south-east. And it contains with it mild air, but it's not going

04:33to feel particularly pleasant because of the wind and the rain. Fast forward to Friday.

04:37That's out of the way. Further blustery showers push into south-western and then northern

04:42Britain with colder air in place, snow over the higher ground, hail, perhaps to lower

04:48levels and a keen, gusty breeze. But that could be the last of it, because as we end

04:56the working week, interesting things are happening elsewhere in the globe. Now, this is Wednesday,

05:02a flat jet stream picking up areas of low pressure, sending them our way at deep, deep

05:07lows forming because of the power of that jet stream. But on Thursday, on the other

05:13side of the pond, over to the west of the USA and Canada, well, this is happening. A

05:18cold plunge in this area will drive the jet stream south, and that will have a ripple

05:24effect if we look forward Thursday and into Friday. That ripple effect starts to amplify

05:30the jet stream and you can see how it becomes much more contorted as we approach the weekend.

05:35And that's good news if you're fed up with the wind and rain, because it will allow high

05:39pressure to build and it will stop sending those lows our way. And with high pressure

05:44arriving for the weekend and possibly sticking around for some time while it's looking less

05:48wet and windy, it will turn colder because we'll have clear skies at night and we'll

05:53have a return to overnight frost. But by day, it looks like we'll have plenty of sunny spells

05:58forming and wind and rain won't be quite as widespread or as frequent. So promising

06:04signs for the end of the week, but so much weather to get through up until then. And

06:07you can, of course, keep up to date with all the very latest by following us on social

06:11media. Bye bye.

Week Ahead - What next after storm Brendan? 13/01/20

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