Forecasters keeping an eye on the tropics as mid-June arrives

AccuWeather

There are two potential areas for tropical development in the middle of June, but forecasters say the chance is low.

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00:00AccuWeather meteorologists do anticipate a supercharged year for tropical systems,

00:04including multiple threats to the U.S., the Caribbean, and also Central America.

00:09We have, again, a lot cooking out there with the current weather pattern

00:12and all that drenching rain in Florida.

00:14As we take you into the tropics right now, there are two features we're keeping an eye on,

00:19two of these here, that really have yet to fully present themselves as separate identities right now.

00:26We have this band of moisture coming from the Yucatan and Cozumel up into Florida,

00:30and this is going to be a persistent streamer of moisture over the next couple of days.

00:34Now, a chunk of this is going to break off, and we're going to be watching an area of low pressure

00:39in a disorganized state across Florida.

00:41Too disorganized to be named during the time that it crosses Florida

00:44because we're really focused on impacts, and we care about you.

00:47We want you to be aware of the weather.

00:49We're calling this a tropical rainstorm because it's bringing tropical rainfall.

00:52Now, farther southwest, there will be another area of low pressure that begins to form

00:56over the area near the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico,

00:59and that becomes the second prospect for development.

01:03Here's number one, though.

01:04This is our tropical rainstorm crossing Florida, still disorganized, not officially named,

01:08but still bringing, we have that forecast of 18 to 24 inches of rain in southwest Florida,

01:13so obviously big impact.

01:15Some of you have had your cars flooded today in Holiday, Florida.

01:18That's a big deal.

01:20Name or not, it's bringing impacts.

01:22This is going to cross Florida.

01:23And then, here you can see, sometimes the forecasters call these lemons.

01:28There's a lemon off the east coast of the southeast coast.

01:31This is the zone where that disturbance could conceivably become organized here

01:36as it interacts with the upper-level winds,

01:38and it might become a tropical or subtropical named storm.

01:41Low chance of that, though, a low chance.

01:43And we can watch this happen here.

01:44Watch this area of low pressure form, and here it becomes a cohesive area of circulation

01:49in this particular model, 1 p.m. Friday, way east of Myrtle Beach.

01:53And maybe we see this become a named storm.

01:55We'll see.

01:56Then, off to the southwest, you can see another area with that counterclockwise flow

02:00over the southern Gulf of Mexico known as the Bay of Campeche there.

02:04That's how they pronounce it.

02:05And this is a second area where we might conceivably see some development.

02:09Overall, we're going to be watching this drift north Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,

02:13and that becomes the next opportunity for rain into parts of Texas.

02:17And that will be, again, another storyline that we have to keep an eye on.

02:20There's low chance.

02:21You can see we're color-coding things yellow and low chance of development.

02:25But it is something to watch.

02:26And, again, we haven't had an official named storm yet.

02:29Statistically, we're not late.

02:31We're not behind yet.

02:32But we haven't had a season with an average or later-than-average start since 2014.

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