00:00In the tropics, we have two named storms in the Pacific Basin. Here we have Hawaii and way west of there we have Iona. Still a tropical storm moving west-northwest at 18 miles per hour. This storm's on its last legs. Maxistain winds 40 miles per hour. We expect to see some gradual weakening with this one.
00:16And then in the East Pacific, Gill, actually a slightly more photogenic storm. It's a strong tropical storm. Maxistain winds at 70 miles per hour. Still a long ways away from Hawaii, though, moving west-northwest at 17 miles per hour. So we'll keep an eye on these. No imminent threats to land or anything like that.
00:32But as we jump into the Atlantic Basin, I want to take a huge picture look at what's going on. And again, we do need to keep an eye out for some trouble off the southeast coast into early next week, but the chance of development is low.
00:42So we've been coming through the midsummer doldrums, and most of the time, on average, in July and the very early August, the jet stream is way off to the north.
00:50And there's not much opportunity for that to interact with the Gulf, as we often see in June.
00:55And also, recently, it's been warm. The water temps are warm, but they're not yet at their peak.
01:00So they're going to continue to warm up here over the next month or two, and they're not yet as warm as they will be in late August or early September.
01:07But one of the bigger mitigating factors over the past four weeks, while we haven't seen a named storm since Chantal about three and a half weeks ago,
01:15has been widespread dry air with Saharan dust. We have seen some tropical waves, but there's also been some wind shear in the path of some of those tropical waves.
01:23Now, water temps are running a little bit above where they typically would be this time of the year, slightly above historical averages over the central Atlantic.
01:31So as we get into the next three, four, five to maybe eight or nine weeks from now, we're getting to the peak of that warming water.
01:40There's going to be less dry air out there. Saharan air is going to be reduced.
01:43So we need to keep an eye out. And by the numbers, we often see our fourth named storm form around August 15th.
01:49We'll probably see something around that time.
