Cuomo Actually Beats Mamdani By 15 Points In A General Election In This Circumstance: Pollster

On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho broke down the latest polls in the New York City Mayoral race.

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Bernie Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now

00:08is Harris X founder and CEO, Driton Nesho. Driton, thank you so much for coming back on.

00:13Thanks for having me.

00:15Harris X has a new poll out on the New York City mayoral race, and the Democratic primary

00:19we know back in June was a shock upset for an establishment Democrat, that Democrat being

00:25former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Polling in February suggested it was his race to lose,

00:31but come end of June, he ended up getting trounced by state assembly members over on Mamdani by 12

00:36points. Cuomo announced this week he is still in the race. He's running as an independent.

00:41So is incumbent mayor Eric Adams. He's also running as an independent. Curtis Sliwa,

00:46the founder of the Guardian Angels, is running as a Republican. So to start off the conversation,

00:50what exactly is the state of the race right now? Well, the state of the race is that it's a wide

00:58open contest. And Democratic primary processes are one thing, but a general election is a different

01:05thing. And I would say that while Mamdani has the progressive vote and support from the progressive

01:13wing of the Democratic Party, Andrew Cuomo is very, very competitive in a general election.

01:22And in fact, if you put the two of them head to head in a general election setting, Cuomo wins by 15

01:29points. So in a direct matchup, Cuomo is ahead with independents breaking for him, Republicans breaking

01:39for him and half of Democrats breaking for him. However, in a more open race, a four-way race,

01:49if it stands as it is, Mamdani is at 26 percent. Cuomo is at 23 percent. So within the margin of error

01:59of the poll. Sliwa is at 22 percent, also within the margin of error. Adams is at 30 percent. So

02:07significantly far beyond the three leading contenders who are tied. And about 15 percent are

02:14undecided. So we're just beginning in this process. And I think that there's going to be a lot of

02:20interesting events in the lead up to this contest.

02:23That is a really interesting set of numbers there. I have seen some Mamdani critics

02:30saying, hey, Cuomo, you had your shot to beat him and you didn't. Now it's time for you to step aside

02:37and Mayor Eric Adams is our best chance. But based on the numbers here, you're saying that's not really

02:43so, right? In a head-to-head matchup, who beats Mamdani by a bigger margin, Cuomo or Adams?

02:49Cuomo beats Mamdani by a significantly higher margin. So as I mentioned, in a head-to-head matchup,

02:5850 percent would vote for Cuomo, 35 percent would vote for Mamdani, and 16 percent are on the fence.

03:06Not sure, similar to what we saw in the forward race. But when you look at Mamdani v. Adams,

03:13Mamdani is at 43 percent. Adams is at 36 percent. So Mamdani is seven points ahead. And 21 percent are

03:22unsure. And this makes a lot of sense because Adams' favorabilities after the scandals,

03:29the corruption scandals that have come on, is significantly low. Today, 56 percent have an

03:36unfavorable view towards Adams. Only 37 percent have a favorable view. So that's a delta or net

03:44negative of 19 points. When you look at Mamdani polarizing a figure, but he's at 42 percent

03:53favorability, 45 percent unfavorable. So a net difference of three with a margin bear. And 13 percent

04:02haven't formed their opinion around him. But when you look at Cuomo, Cuomo is at 40 percent

04:09favorable. So a favorability rating that's five points higher than Madami and 10 points higher than

04:17Adams. And 45 percent unfavorable. And given that he's been the governor, only about 7 percent say

04:25that they've yet to make up their mind on the inward forward opinion because he has nearly universal

04:31name recognition and awareness within the state. So when you look at the favorability numbers,

04:38Cuomo has the best numbers. And that translates into the head to head matchup.