Top Pollster Reveals Who Is Leading In NYC's Mayoral Primary

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom," Emerson College Pollster Matt Taglia discussed a recent poll about the NYC mayoral election which showed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) ahead in the polls.

Transcript

00:00I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is Matt Taglia,

00:04Senior Director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for joining me.

00:08Thanks for having me, Brittany.

00:10You have a new poll from Emerson College Polling, Picks 11 and the Hill on the New York City

00:16Mayoral Race. And you and I talked about this race back in March, and it's shaping up to be,

00:20as we sit here right now, less than a month from the primary, shaping up to be a different race,

00:25a much tighter race. Talk to us about the takeaways from this recent poll.

00:30Yeah, Brittany, and I think the big story here is the rise of Momdani. So looking at that initial

00:39first choice vote, we still see Cuomo ahead. He's at 34%. But now we have Momdani at 22% on that first

00:47choice. So, you know, he's gone from, I think, in our first poll around 1% to 10% and now 22%. So

00:55this is really a meteoric rise for him. This is shaping up to be a competitive race.

01:02Yeah, much tighter race. And when you and I were talking, I mean, Cuomo had a really strong lead.

01:07It almost looked like back in March that it was Cuomo's race to lose. So just how strong is that

01:12lead now, A? And B, I mean, how does ranked choice voting factor in here?

01:17Yeah, and so I still think that this is a fairly strong lead for Cuomo. Once we get into those

01:26simulations through ranked choice voting, so we asked folks, you know, as they will be asked on

01:31the ballot for their top five choices. Not everyone selects all five choices. So, you know, once we run

01:40all those simulations through 10 rounds, we find Cuomo with 54% and Momdani with 46%. Again, the ranked

01:51choice voting, that really, really is a big factor here. That second choice is really going to matter.

01:56But we do see quite a bit of consolidation here among the sort of progressive side for Momdani and then

02:04the more traditional side, a little bit, you know, slightly left of center for Cuomo.

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