Could Andrew Cuomo Lose NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary To Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani?

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom," Emerson College Pollster Matt Taglia discussed a recent poll about the NYC mayoral election, showing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) in the lead of the Democratic primary, with a sudden surge of Democratic Socialists of America member candidate Zohran Mamdani.

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is

00:07Matt Taglia, Senior Director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for joining me.

00:12Thanks for having me, Brittany.

00:14You have a new poll from Emerson College Polling, Picks 11 and the Hill on the New York City

00:19mayoral race. And you and I talked about this race back in March, and it's shaping up to be,

00:24as we sit here right now, less than a month from the primary, shaping up to be a different race,

00:29a much tighter race. Talk to us about the takeaways from this recent poll.

00:34Yeah, Brittany, and I think the big story here is the rise of Momdani. So looking at that initial

00:42first choice vote, we still see Cuomo ahead. He's at 34 percent. But now we have Momdani at 22 percent

00:50on that first choice. So, you know, he's gone from, I think, in our first poll around 1 percent

00:56to 10 percent and now 22 percent. So this is really a meteoric rise for him. This is shaping

01:03up to be a competitive race. Yeah, much tighter race. And when you and I were talking, I mean,

01:09Cuomo had a really strong lead. It almost looked like back in March that it was Cuomo's race to

01:14lose. So just how strong is that lead now, A, and B, I mean, how does rank choice voting factor in here?

01:21Yeah, and so I still think that this is a fairly strong lead for Cuomo. Once we get into those

01:30simulations through rank choice voting, so we asked folks, you know, as they will be asked on

01:35the ballot for their top five choices, not everyone selects all five choices. So, you know, once we run

01:44all those simulations through 10 rounds, we find Cuomo with 54 percent and Momdani with 46 percent.

01:53Again, the rank choice voting, that really, really is a big factor here. That second choice is really

01:59going to matter. But we do see quite a bit of consolidation here among the sort of progressive

02:06side for Momdani and then the more traditional side, a little bit, you know, slightly left of center

02:12for Cuomo. I want to talk exactly about the demographics that are supporting Governor Cuomo

02:19because he really became a household name during COVID. Those COVID pressers were appointment

02:25viewing for a lot of people. He was touted as America's governor. And at one point, there was

02:29buzz that he would even be seriously considered as a presidential contender. But he did face parallel

02:35scandals. One, he faced a lot of criticism for the way that he handled COVID, especially in nursing

02:41homes. And two, he also faced a flurry of sexual harassment allegations, and he ultimately resigned

02:46as governor after them. So now, just a few years later, I'm really surprised at the demographics

02:52that are showing him the most support. Talk to us about that. Yeah, this is where it gets kind of

02:57interesting. So Cuomo gets most of his support from older voters in particular. So those who are roughly

03:05over the age of 60, we see also that he is gaining support from minority voters. And in that final

03:14round of voting, Black voters and Hispanic voters in particular, majorities are backing Cuomo. I think

03:21roughly 75% of Black voters are backing Cuomo in that final round. So, you know, it's a very diverse

03:30camp that Cuomo has. I think that's probably a big boost for him. And if, you know, Momdani wants to

03:37get closer to the finish line, he's going to have to really boost his numbers among some of these

03:43minority voters. His coalition looks a lot different currently. Talk to us about his coalition. Why are

03:49we seeing this meteoric rise from him? And who's exactly supporting him?

03:53Yeah, so he has consolidated a lot of that progressive vote. We see that he is backed by

04:01a majority in final voting of white voters, also college educated, and especially those

04:08postgraduate voters as folks who have, you know, masters and above their backing Momdani

04:15and younger voters as well. As you might expect, you know, these progressive candidates, they tend to

04:21attract more from more support from younger voters. So Momdani definitely has that coalition. He has

04:29managed to consolidate a lot of that vote. There's still some breaking for Lander and Adams, but I think

04:37in second choice, third choice, fourth choice, etc. They ultimately are going towards Momdani. He just

04:44has to make sure that he's getting those folks to list him as their second, third, fourth choice if they

04:50aren't backing him at first. And now I want to talk about how Mayor Eric Adams comes into play here because

04:56he's running now as an independent. He did win as a Democrat before as mayor. And Momdani has called out

05:04Eric Adams directly in his ads. Cuomo, not so much. He's made more generalized comments like, are cities in

05:10crisis? There's a failure in leadership. Not really calling out Adams directly. Just how popular is Mayor Eric Adams in

05:18Big Apple? And I think it's suffice to say he is he is not popular. So you know, looking at his

05:27favorability, he's at 19% favorable, 68% unfavorable. So a majority of New Yorkers have an unfavorable view

05:36of Mayor Adams. And I think one interesting number from this is that very favorable number. That's at six

05:44percent. Let's compare that for a second to President Trump in New York City. President Trump

05:50has 15% who have a very favorable opinion of him. So Adams is in a really, really tough spot here.

05:57He is deeply unpopular in the city. You know, to the extent to which that's going to affect the

06:03Democratic primary for mayor, I'm not sure. But Adams is certainly an unpopular figure right now for New

06:12Yorkers. And if I was a Democrat in New York, which is a historically blue city, and I'm saying

06:18that Donald Trump has a higher favorability rating than me, I mean, that would not make me feel good

06:24at all, especially about my state as a mayor, as well as my state in the race here. But New York City,

06:30as I said, blue city, but it did move more red during the 2024 election. Republican support grew in

06:37this city. Read the tea leaves for me a bit there. Do you think that means anything for this race,

06:42especially when you're looking at Cuomo and Momdani, Cuomo's more moderate, Momdani's way more

06:48progressive? Yeah. And in the Democratic primary, I think that it is going to come down to this

06:55question of whether New York City Democrats are willing to back a progressive candidate.

07:03That remains to be seen. But there is definitely a swell of support for that progressive candidate.

07:10And if we look at all of the progressives on the ballot generally, then we do see that there's

07:17a sizable number who do back one of those candidates. If we look a little bit further

07:22towards the general election, I don't think that there's any danger here that a Republican or

07:27independent candidate is going to be elected as mayor. We tested both Cuomo and Momdani on the ballot.

07:34They would both win. That's with Eric Adams as well, running as an independent. Cuomo does a little

07:41bit better. He gets 44 percent. Momdani gets 35 percent. Some of that support that dissipates from

07:48Cuomo doesn't go towards Momdani or undecided. Instead, it goes towards some of these other

07:54candidates. But nevertheless, I don't see any real danger that a Republican is going to win

08:01the general election. To that point, the last time New York City saw a Republican mayor was

08:07Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and that was over two decades ago. So essentially, based on the numbers that

08:11you're seeing right now, whatever Democrat wins the primary in June, it's pretty safe to say they

08:17will be the city's next mayor. I think that's definitely fair to say. You know, we we don't see

08:26any groundswell of support for Republicans on the ballot here. When we test the general election,

08:34we see that Curtis Lewa is at 13 percent when Cuomo is on the ballot. He's at 16 percent with Momdani

08:41on the ballot. Those are not high numbers. None of the independent candidates garner significant support.

08:49Adams included here, you know, 15 percent at most. So yeah, I don't see any real risk here.

08:56That a Republican or even independent candidate is going to make a difference on the general

09:03election ballot for mayor. And based on some of the ads the campaigns are releasing, Momdani's

09:09really focused on the cost of living. Cuomo's also focused on affordability in the city, as well

09:14as crime. Are those issues that are resonating with New York City voters?

09:17They are. So as you might expect, housing is the top issue. If we take that together with the economy,

09:26that accounts for a majority of folks top issue. So those are those have been and will continue to be

09:34major issues, both nationally, statewide in New York and especially in New York City. But I did find it

09:42interesting. Crime comes in third place with 19 percent. That's mostly driven by older voters.

09:49And those older voters are the ones who are backing Cuomo. So, you know, I think that there is something

09:54to gain there for Cuomo and potentially some of the other candidates on the ballot who are a little

10:03bit more pro police, but it shouldn't necessarily help Momdani here. Matt, you and I talked at length

10:13leading up to the 2024 election. And one of the top issues facing voters then was immigration and

10:18immigration has affected New York City specifically. In recent years, over 200,000 migrants arrived in

10:25the city. And Mayor Eric Adams said that it would cost the Big Apple $10 billion over the course of

10:31three years. So specifically in New York, how are voters feeling about President Trump's

10:35and the administration's policies surrounding immigration?

10:39And New Yorkers are pretty negative towards the Trump administration's policies on deportations

10:45in particular. So 50 percent think that deportations have had a negative impact on the city versus 30

10:52percent who say it has a positive impact. Again, we're looking a little bit more skewed towards older

10:58voters here who think that it has had a positive impact. You know, same goes for the folks who say

11:05that immigration is their top issue. You know, these are primarily older, a little bit more

11:09conservative voters. And in terms of the sort of Democratic primary, those voters are going to

11:15largely back Cuomo. But as far as immigration having a major influence on the race, I don't think it's

11:22going to have much of one. I don't think that the candidates are making it their top issue. And

11:28that's fair. And I would not want to be necessarily tied, especially to the Trump administration's

11:34deportation policies here.

11:37And as we know, the primary for the New York City mayoral race is on June 24th. So almost a month

11:43away. But between now and then, what specifically are you looking out for when it comes to this race?

11:47And I'm going to be looking at that Mondani number, whether that comes up a little bit in

11:55that first choice voting. We have a lot of folks here, though, who don't necessarily have a second

12:01choice. So there's going to be a lot to gain from that. The candidates themselves could be out there

12:08requesting that voters, you know, even if you're not my I'm not your first choice, mark me as your

12:14second choice here, because that's going to play a major role. And I think some folks are simply going

12:20to skip their second, third, fourth, fifth, etc. Because they might not be paying enough attention

12:26or not necessarily have strong opinions one way or another on their later choice candidates. But

12:32that's going to play a major role. Something else that I found interesting in this poll is that among

12:37the folks who say they are very likely to vote, this is a tied race in the final round. It's roughly

12:4451, 50 percent for Cuomo and Mondani, respectively. So, you know, I think the turnout is going to

12:51matter here, especially among sort of that older vote, Cuomo and then the younger, highly educated

12:58vote for Mondani. This is really anyone's race. We'll be watching it closely.

13:05And we will be watching closely as well. And as you have more polling coming out of it,

13:10I hope you can come on and break it down. Matt Taglia, thank you so much for joining me.

13:13Thank you, Brittany.

Category

Transcript

Recommended