Cuomo Or Adams? New Poll Shows Which Independent Beats Mamdani In Head-To-Head NYC Mayoral Match-Up

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new HarrisX poll out on the state of the New York City mayoral race.

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Bernie Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now

00:08is Harris X founder and CEO, Driton Nesho. Driton, thank you so much for coming back on.

00:13Thanks for having me.

00:15Harris X has a new poll out on the New York City mayoral race, and the Democratic primary

00:19we know back in June was a shock upset for an establishment Democrat, that Democrat being

00:25former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Polling in February suggested it was his race to lose,

00:31but come end of June, he ended up getting trounced by state assembly members over on Mamdani by 12

00:36points. Cuomo announced this week he is still in the race. He's running as an independent.

00:41So is incumbent mayor Eric Adams. He's also running as an independent. Curtis Sliwa,

00:46the founder of the Guardian Angels, is running as a Republican. So to start off the conversation,

00:50what exactly is the state of the race right now? Well, the state of the race is that it's a wide

00:58open context. And Democratic primary processes are one thing, but a general election is a different

01:05thing. And I would say that while Mamdani has the progressive vote and support from the progressive

01:13wing of the Democratic Party, Andrew Cuomo is very, very competitive in a general election.

01:22And in fact, if you put the two of them head to head in a general election setting, Cuomo wins by 15

01:29points. So in a direct matchup, Cuomo is ahead with independents breaking for him, Republicans breaking

01:39for him and half of Democrats breaking for him. However, in a more open race, a four-way race,

01:48if it stands as it is, Mamdani is at 26 percent. Cuomo is at 23 percent. So within the margin of error

01:59of the poll. Sliwa is at 22 percent, also within the margin of error. Adams is at 30 percent. So

02:07significantly far beyond the three leading contenders who are tied. And about 15 percent are

02:14undecided. So we're just beginning in this process. And I think that there's going to be a lot of

02:20interesting events in the lead up to this contest.

02:23That is a really interesting set of numbers there. I have seen some Mamdani critics

02:30saying, hey, Cuomo, you had your shot to beat him and you didn't. Now it's time for you to step aside

02:37and Mayor Eric Adams is our best chance. But based on the numbers here, you're saying that's not really

02:43so, right? In a head-to-head matchup, who beats Mamdani by a bigger margin, Cuomo or Adams?

02:49Cuomo bids Mamdani by a significantly higher margin. So as I mentioned, in a head-to-head matchup,

02:5850 percent would vote for Cuomo, 35 percent would vote for Mamdani, and 16 percent are on the fence.

03:06Not sure, similar to what we saw in the forward race. But when you look at Mamdani v. Adams,

03:13Mamdani is at 43 percent. Adams is at 36 percent. So Mamdani is seven points ahead. And 21 percent are

03:22unsure. And this makes a lot of sense because Adams' favorabilities after the scandals,

03:29the corruption scandals that have come on, is significantly low. Today, 56 percent have an

03:36unfavorable view towards Adams. Only 37 percent have a favorable view. So that's a delta or net

03:44negative of 19 points. When you look at Mamdani polarizing a figure, but he's at 42 percent

03:53favorability, 45 percent unfavorable. So a net difference of three with a margin bear. And 13 percent

04:02haven't formed their opinion around him. But when you look at Cuomo, Cuomo is at 40 percent

04:09favorable. So a favorability rating that's five points higher than Madami and 10 points higher

04:16than Adams. And 45 percent unfavorable. And given that he's been the governor, only about 7 percent

04:25say that they've yet to make up their mind on the inward forward opinion because he has nearly

04:29universal name recognition and awareness within the state. So when you look at the favorability

04:37numbers, Cuomo has the best numbers. And that translates into the head-to-head matchup.

04:45And so when you break this down, I know you said that more progressive voters are going for Mamdani,

04:51Republicans and independents perhaps are going to Cuomo. Is there anything else that you're seeing

04:56trending-wise, demographically, one person is breaking more for one group over another?

05:04Well, Mamdani does very well with young voters. And also, it's not just the youngest voter demographic,

05:13let's say Jets years, but it's also millennials who are in their third. And these are voters that we

05:20know from our polling and previous polling that has been done, are very sensitive to affordability

05:30related issues, affordability of day-to-day life, affordability of housing within the city. And

05:38again, they constitute Madame's core. Cuomo does much better with older voters and certainly voters that

05:50are within 45 to 64-year-olds of the Gen Xers. 65 plus, it's a little bit more competitive. And I

05:59think that that will be an area of focus or will need to be an area of focus for Cuomo campaign going

06:06forward to consolidate the base. But there's really this generational split that is at play. And again,

06:14Cuomo has to hit the right messages with younger voters. And we'll see if Mandami is able

06:20to make any inways or inroads with all their middle-aged plus voters. I will also say one thing,

06:29that in a four-race contest, Mandami's support means more male. He's at 27% male support, whereas Cuomo

06:41is at around 20%, whereas Cuomo does better with female voters. And Cuomo is at about 28%, 29% with

06:52female voters, tied with Mandami. And Slevan Adams obviously have much lower numbers with female

06:59voters. So it'll be interesting to also see how, from a gender perspective, each of the candidates are

07:08able to make inroads. And, you know, when votes pick up traction, both if it is a four-way contest or

07:18if it ends up being a smaller two-way or three-way contest.

07:23If I were Mayor Eric Adams, I would be a little concerned if I was looking at this poll and I was

07:29seeing the disapproval number that you just laid out. Do voters think then, too, the city's going in the

07:36right or wrong direction? Because Mayor Eric Adams has been at the helm now for almost a term and he's

07:42trying to run again. Right. So 59% say the city is on the wrong track. Only 30% say that it's on the

07:52right track and 11% aren't sure. So it's a factor of two to one that basically believe that the city is

08:02in the right direction. And that's what's disqualifying Adams. So really the choice boils

08:08down between the voters that want experience. And in our previous polling of this contest,

08:16Cuomo owns the experience element and that's being the safer hands for the city. And Mandami,

08:24who obviously is a younger candidate, represents generational change. And so it's really what

08:33kind of a change are you looking for? Are you looking for experience-driven change? And the polling

08:39indicates that Cuomo owns that theme and that rally client or change which is much more deeply rooted

08:52at McDonough. And Mandami, in his own words, describes themselves as a democratic socialist and

08:59has said that we need to privatize the means of production in the city, which is a fairly radical

09:05idea, especially in the city that's run by bodegas and the people that employ a good amount of city

09:17workers. So it'll be, it'll be quite interesting to see which way voters choose between those two

09:22different, those two different teams that operate. And from the top, you said that this is a wide open

09:30race based on these numbers. Is there room and do voters have voters made up their mind? Is there room

09:36for a candidate to be like, I'm, I'm Cuomo, but there's a Momdani voter. I'm going to try to get them

09:42for me. Or I'm Adams, there's Momdani voter. I'm going to try to get them for me. Or are they just

09:47trying to pick off the undecideds? I mean, what does that strategy really look like based on these

09:51numbers? Well, again, I, uh, uh, the key votes in, uh, this contest will come from independent voters

10:02and, uh, Republican voters. And I think it's very important to understand, uh, whether or not this will

10:09be a four-way contest or whether it will, uh, whittle down. If it does whittle down and let's

10:15say that it's a three-way contest without Cuomo, Mondalmi wins clear. He gets 35% of the vote to

10:23Sleva, uh, Sleva's 25% of the vote to Adam's 90% with about 22% saying that, uh, they're undecided

10:32that they'd have to make up their, their mind. And then if Adams drop out, but Cuomo runs, uh, again,

10:40it's a very competitive race with Cuomo in the lead at 31%, Mondalmi at 29%, and, uh, Sleva at 28%.

10:49Cuomo essentially picks up, uh, independent voters and a good chunk of the decided voters, uh, uh,

10:57SEM. So very different constituencies powering, uh, the different campaigns and backing the

11:04different campaigns. But one thing is clear, there's no permutation of the horse race that

11:09has Adams winning. And, uh, if this, uh, whittles down to a head-to-head matchup, uh, uh, Cuomo,

11:19uh, uh, uh, performs the best, uh, vis-a-vis, uh, Mondalmi at winning by 50 points, as we mentioned

11:26at the, uh, uh, outside. And if it's a three-way race, then, uh, again, it's a competitive race,

11:32especially if it's, uh, Cuomo, Mondalmi, and Sleva were the three candidates.

11:38And what you're hearing from people who are critical of Mondalmi and are concerned

11:41of his potential leadership is if Cuomo, Sleva, and Adams all stay in, they are going to split votes

11:48and he's going to be the runaway winner. And that's what this poll does suggest. But as of now,

11:54if everyone is neck and neck essentially in this poll, how does that not convince everyone to stay

12:00in? Well, uh, I think that, uh, this poll suggests that Eric Adams doesn't have a path to win.

12:09Uh, and it suggests a competitive race, uh, that hasn't settled yet, uh, beyond that. Uh, so we'll

12:19see what happens, uh, especially as the general, uh, election gets geared up and the candidates are

12:26able to both reposition themselves for the general and, uh, mount, uh, their campaigns. But again,

12:34as I said, it's clear that Adams doesn't really have a path, uh, uh, and, uh, Sleva has the more

12:42difficult path out of the remaining three. So really the choice seems to be a margin between

12:48Mondalmi and Qualcomm and each has different constituencies supporting them, uh, which,

12:54uh, uh, uh, are energized for different reasons. And again, in the day of the election, turnout matters,

13:01turnout matters a lot. And so that's also the wild factor, uh, that, uh, uh, within this race.

13:08Many have said the democratic primary in this mayor's race are a case study of exactly where

13:15the left is wanting to go. And it's seemingly more progressive because Zora Mamdani really had

13:21a runaway victory in that primary in June. There are obviously a few caveats here because New York

13:26city is a historically liberal city and this election was in an off year, but you and I have

13:31talked just earlier this week of where exactly the democratic party is because it's seemingly been

13:37a little bit in the wilderness since the 2024 election. So what do you think, what do you make

13:43of this? Do you think this is a case study of where the left wants to go? Well, uh, our national

13:48polling, so not our New York city polling, but our national polling suggests that, um, that is the

13:55wrong direction for the left to go. We've actually asked the question, do you want more left leaning

14:00politicians to lead the democratic party, such as AOC and Bernie Sanders? And this was before

14:07McNamee won. It was a phenomenon, or would you like to see more moderate democratic candidates,

14:15uh, who are focused on getting things done, compromise, and basically winning the broader

14:22array of voters within what is meant to be a big 10 party, the democratic party. Voters overwhelmingly pick

14:29the latter. And it's, uh, almost two thirds of them that would say, uh, they would prefer to see more

14:36moderate, uh, rather than progressive or left leaning Democrats take helm of the party. So, uh, if I could

14:44use that as evidence, obviously the voice of voters across the country is what determines election midterms

14:52presidential election. It doesn't seem like going in the direction of Mondavi at AOC and Bernie Sanders

14:59is the winning path for the democratic party. Well, I know that we are going to have many conversations

15:05on this race as it heats up between now and November, because it is a race that received international

15:11attention. Dritan, thank you so much for joining me. I always appreciate our conversations.

15:16Thank you so much. See you soon.

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