Bad News For Newsom? New Poll Shows Most California Voters Don't Want Governor To Run For President

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom," Matt Taglia, Senior Director of Emerson College Polling, discussed a new poll on the California governor's race, as well as Gov. Gavin Newsom's approval rating and if his state's voters want to see him run for president.

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is

00:07Matt Taglia, Senior Director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for coming back on.

00:12Thanks for having me, Brittany.

00:14I'm really excited to speak with you today because you have a poll regarding the June

00:192026. So it seems like light years away, but it will be here sooner than we know it. Primary

00:24for California's governor. What did you find? Who's the front runner? Yeah, Brittany, it does seem like

00:30light years away, but folks are interested and some folks are tuned in right now. So I think the

00:36big story here is that it really depends on whether or not former Vice President Harris decides to enter

00:44the race. With her in the race, we have her at 31 percent, Katie Porter at 8 percent, and then all

00:51others are below 5 percent with 39 percent undecided. Now, if the former Vice President,

00:58former presidential candidate Harris decides not to run, then it is really sort of an open race.

01:05Porter jumps a little bit up to 12 percent. All unders, though, all other candidates, though,

01:11are under 5 percent there with a majority undecided at 54 percent. So again, you know,

01:17this really, really hinges on whether or not Harris decides to run. That's really interesting because

01:22Harris hasn't even jumped in the race yet. So when you take her out of the equation,

01:25the numbers don't even change. So talk to us about that a little bit. Is that normal to see people

01:32this excited about a candidate who hasn't even yet said declared that they were joining the race?

01:38Yeah, and I can't think of too many other instances where this has been the case. But,

01:43you know, I think it does speak to her name ID more than anything. We do see excitement among

01:52Democrats specifically. So 49 percent back Harris when she is on the ballot versus Porter, 13 percent

02:00among Democrats. But she also picks up 23 percent of independents. And we see the highest support among

02:07these younger voters, 18 to 29 year olds. She has 46 percent support there. Again, I think that is

02:13very much a name ID contest. She's been in the news recently. She obviously was just on the

02:19presidential ticket. So I think that that's really giving her a leg up here. But I also don't want to

02:24discount that. You know, some of these candidates would have to spend millions and millions of dollars

02:29in order to get the same name ID as Kamala Harris. So she walks into this race, if she decides to,

02:36with a substantial lead.

02:41When you're looking at the numbers, when Harris enters the race, she's at 31 percent. But there

02:45is another group leading the charge. And those are undecided voters at 39 percent. Who does that

02:51undecided help more? Because when you're looking at Harris, she arguably has the most name recognition

02:57on this list because she was vice president. She was presidential nominee. But does it help the

03:03smaller names more because voters don't have as much of an opinion on them as they potentially do

03:09Harris? So I think that that is a fair point. And I think that there is some room here for growth,

03:16especially for Katie Porter. She does pick up when Harris isn't on the ballot. She picks up a little

03:23bit more support among the older voters. And that's exactly who you're going to want to court

03:27in a primary situation, be it Democratic or Republican, in this case, nonpartisan. But

03:33regardless, I think that that is one sort of thing that she can boast there. On the other hand,

03:41I think eventually this undecided factor is going to help one Republican. So if Republicans can coalesce

03:49around one candidate right now, that candidate who is a Republican and is and has some support is

03:56Bianco. If Republicans can decide and coalesce around one candidate, I think that undecided vote

04:03will ultimately help that candidate. They'll want to have someone be in second place so that the top

04:10two are not both Democrats. How competitive as of now is this race shaping up to be? If Harris jumps

04:18in, is it almost like as of now game over? Does a Republican have a shot? I mean, what does that really look

04:25like? Yeah. And again, I think it's going to be tough for another Democrat to rise to the top with

04:35Harris on the ticket. You know, she is walking in with such high name ID. She has a substantial lead

04:43this early when we are roughly, what is it, April? So 13 months out from the primary election. I think

04:52that that's really, really tough. Again, I think, you know, the state Republican Party, other Republicans,

04:59they're going to be looking at this and they're going to certainly want a viable Republican candidate

05:04who can make it up to the top and they're going to be putting money into that. So, you know, I do. I think

05:10that it's ultimately competitive in a general election. Probably not. But at the primary level, I think that there is

05:16a strong chance that it would be, in the case of Harris, a Harris and a Republican candidate in the

05:22top two slots. And if Harris decides not to enter the race, then I would still say it would be either

05:29Porter, maybe one of these other Democratic candidates, but likely, almost certainly a Democrat on top

05:37and more likely than not, a Republican in second place. One thing that's exciting is that this

05:44primary is over a year away. So I'm sure you and I will have plenty of conversations on it. We're

05:50talking about the future governor of California, but I do want to look at the current governor of

05:54California, and that is Gavin Newsom. How do Californians view the job that he's doing now? Because

06:00as we remember, just at the beginning of this year, LA was ravaged by wildfires. Newsom took the brunt of

06:08criticism for how he handled that. What do voters think of him now? Yeah, and it's not the best approval

06:15rating we've seen for a governor. 33% approve of Newsom's job performance versus 42% who disapprove. Let's

06:23compare that for a second to President Trump. In California, as we know, one of the most Democratic

06:30states in the country, 28% approve of Trump's job performance versus 56% disapprove. So there is

06:37certainly a distance there, but those approval numbers specifically, that 28% and 33%, that's a fairly

06:43small distance between the two approval numbers there. So that's a little striking to see for a Democratic

06:51governor, and I think we see a little bit more of that further down the polls. We get into the issues, and then we get

06:57into the question of Newsom running for president. I want to get into that because Gavin Newsom has been

07:04trying to make inroads with conservatives. He started a podcast and had Charlie Kirk and Steve

07:09Bannon on as guests. That was viewed as largely controversial. He's also moving more towards the

07:15middle in different views, like trans athletes in women's sports. And this is the description of his

07:20podcast. It's time to have honest discussions with people that agree and disagree with us.

07:24It's time to answer the hard questions and be open to criticism and debate without demeaning or

07:28dehumanizing one another. And many people see this as him laying early groundwork to run for president.

07:34Is there an appetite for that?

07:37Well, in California, at least, no, not necessarily. So 59% say no, Gavin Newsom should not run for

07:45president versus 41% who say yes. As you might expect, Democrats are more bullish about Newsom

07:53running for president. It's a 60-40 split, roughly. Now, I wouldn't say that that's overwhelming if 40%

07:59within your own party in your home state say that you should not run for president. That's maybe not

08:06the odds that you want. And then when you look at Republicans and independents, it's three quarters say

08:11that he should not run for president. So I don't know, necessarily, that the podcast is breaking through.

08:17I don't know that these olive branches to the other side are going to really help him in the end.

08:23But I also don't know that, you know, Californians speak for the rest of the country.

08:28Does this mean that he couldn't win a primary in, say, South Carolina or on Super Tuesday?

08:34He very well might. And he could potentially be a viable presidential candidate. But when you look at the

08:41views at home among his own constituents right now, they are not favorable towards him as president.

08:49When you're looking at these statewide races and the national race, obviously, to be president,

08:55when you're looking at California in particular, what are some of the top issues facing voters still now?

09:01Is it like in 2024, the economy, immigration and other? What does that look like?

09:07It's very similar to 2024. We still see the economy, the top issue for folks in California.

09:15That's 40 percent. And that's remained true across the country for the most part.

09:20In California, it gets a little interesting, though, because housing affordability is 24 percent.

09:25So that's the second highest issue. You combine those two categories, the economy, including inflation,

09:32jobs, et cetera, plus housing affordability, which is another component of the economy, really.

09:38Then you're at roughly two thirds of the electorate who say that one of these is their top issue.

09:45And what's also interesting in California is that, you know, usually when we see housing

09:50affordability track up as a major issue, it's younger folks. It's folks who are in their 20s

09:57and 30s who are thinking about buying a house or hope to buy a home someday, but can't right now

10:03because of either interest rates or prices or for some other factors. That's not the case in California.

10:08It ranges between all of the different age breakouts. I think everywhere folks are feeling the housing

10:16crunch in California. That's certainly reflected here. And I think that, you know, this in conjunction

10:22with the economy are really fueling the approval numbers that we saw for President Trump and for

10:30Governor Newsom. And I'm curious how the tariff issue impacts people's view of the economy,

10:36because President Trump earlier this month unveiled a sweeping tariff plan. And since he really started

10:43in January, he's threatened, paused, started and escalated trade wars with our allies and adversaries

10:50alike. How do voters in California view this tariff plan? Yeah. And so we asked, you know, how folks tend to

10:58view tariffs and who ultimately pays for tariffs. And so we found that 60 percent say that it's a tax on the

11:06consumer. 22 percent say that it's a tax on the foreign country who has been levied, had tariffs

11:13levied against them. That's pretty similar to what we found nationally. Here, though, we find that 40 percent

11:21of Republicans say that it's a tax on the consumer. It's a little bit different from the nationwide

11:25numbers that we see, but it is still, you know, very different from how Democrats tend to view it.

11:3077 percent say it's a tax on the consumer. I think that we're seeing that also reflected in that economic

11:37number up at the top. 40 percent say it's their top issue. And then when we talk about the stock market

11:42getting a little bit further down, folks are fairly concerned about the recent swings in the stock

11:48market obviously due in part to tariffs. We've seen the tariffs roil the stock market. Global markets

11:56lost trillions in the immediate aftermath. When you're looking at tariffs and how voters view the

12:01market volatility, how does that break down really by demo? Yeah, so we see a lot of overall concern

12:07here for the recent swings in the stock market. We see 44 percent overall are very concerned. 28 percent

12:15are somewhat concerned. Only 28 percent are either not that concerned or not at all concerned. So I think

12:22it's fair to say that people are seeing the volatility in the market. They're likely seeing

12:27some effect on their accounts, be it bank account or their investments. And when we look at this by

12:33party, you wouldn't necessarily think that there's a partisan split in, you know, how the economy is

12:39performing, how stocks are performing, how their how their own accounts are performing. But we see 58 percent

12:45of Democrats are very concerned about the recent market volatility, whereas only 25 percent of

12:51Republicans say the same. And then 36 percent of independents say that they're very concerned.

12:57So again, I think that there is overall a lot of concern here, but there is a bit of a partisan tilt

13:02to this. And Democrats overall have much more than any other party here.

13:10Well, Matt, there is certainly a lot to look out for when it comes to both the California

13:16gubernatorial primary as well as the tariffs. And I'm sure you and I will have plenty more

13:21conversations on them both. Thank you so much for joining me.

13:25Absolutely. Thank you, Brittany.

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