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On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll revealing voters' attitudes on the economy, Iran, the Los Angeles anti-ICE protests, and more.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Harris X founder and CEO Driton Esho. Driton, thanks so much for joining me.
00:12Thanks for having me back, Brittany.
00:14You have some new numbers from a Harris X Harvard Caps poll, all from June. I want you to break it
00:21down for us. So let's start from the top. Let's start with President Trump's approval rating.
00:26Where does that sit right now, just a few months into his second term?
00:30Well, the president has had a pretty eventful month, and his approval rating is largely steady
00:38with what we saw in May. However, it is trending down, and it has been trending down since really
00:47he announced the tariffs in early April. So the president started a 52% approval rating in February.
00:54It largely held in March. Then it fell fairly significantly in April, and now he's at 46%.
01:03So things are steady, but with this slight downwards trend, and it's yet to be seen whether or not the
01:14president will break this downward trend in the next month or two as he nears the six months in office mark and
01:22really reclaim 50% approval or higher as he had in the beginning, or whether, you know, all of a sudden we'll
01:29wake up and we'll find him at 40% approval or around 40% approval. So I think a lot of things are in play
01:35right now, and the public is in a cautious, wait-at-see attitude when it comes to Trump, his policies, but also
01:43the way that Democrats are countering Trump.
01:48We've been in wait-and-see for a few months now when it comes to these tariffs.
01:52So because you're seeing this downward spiral, does it seem like people are still waiting and seeing, but approving
01:57him a little bit less? And how does that really, historically, what does that really mean for Trump?
02:03Has he seen this before?
02:07Well, by historical standards, he's doing fine compared to himself in the first term, but also other presidents
02:17within the first, you know, six months of their time in office. The political reality tends to slap you in the face
02:26pretty hard and pretty quickly when you are the commander in chief and you're running the country.
02:34But I will read for the audience in terms of how he's doing in different areas and what the approval ratings are.
02:42So the highest approval rating that Trump carries is on immigration. In May, he was at 51%. Today, he's at 49%.
02:52He's had a high of 56% on immigration. Generally, the public approves of the goals of his immigration policies,
03:00even though as we'll talk in a minute, sometimes they, you know, have reservation in terms of how they're
03:07approached. And you see this at play when we'll talk about the riots in Los Angeles. In a similar fashion,
03:14of returning America to its values, 48% of voters approve of Trump's job in that regard. And he's
03:25garnered a high of 53% at the beginning of his term. And administering the government, reducing the cost of
03:33government, he's at 46%. More or less, foreign affairs, 45%. Where he's getting low marks is tariffs and trade, 41%, and handling inflation, 42%. And especially the inflation,
03:49inflation, that the approval on handling inflation and the inflation issue is very important for Trump, because this is one of the reasons why he was elected. And this is one of the reasons why the Democrats came crashing down before the presidential election, the inability to move the public on concerns around inflation.
04:12So there's a very wide range, as you would expect, with Trump. Slide downward trends across the board, but that's just government, right? And it happens to all presidents.
04:25I want to talk before we get into all the issues. I want to talk about one specific issue between two people, the world's richest billionaire, as well as the world's most powerful leader. Yes, I'm talking about the fight between Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
04:39And we saw this, the disintegration of this relationship pretty rapidly, because a week before, less than a week before, Elon Musk was in the Oval Office, and President Trump called Elon Musk, quote,
04:52one of the greatest business leaders and innovators the world has ever produced. And Musk said that he expected to remain a friend and advisor to Trump. That doesn't really seem to be the case, because there was a barrage of social media posts, mostly from Elon Musk.
05:05Some of the most fiery included Musk claiming Trump was in the Epstein files. He reposted a post saying that President Trump should be impeached.
05:14He said that the tariffs would cause a recession. And then Musk has since walked some of those insults back, saying he regretted some of the posts and that he took it a little bit too far.
05:24But what do the American people think about this fight?
05:27Well, you know, we asked a series of questions around the fight, more for fun than anything. But I think that this is a fight that Trump wins on a few different dimensions.
05:42Elon rightly understood that he overstepped with the fight.
05:46So, you know, first and foremost, we ask, who do you generally trust more when it comes to economic policy, Trump or Musk or neither or both equally?
05:56And leaving neither aside, which was 49 percent of the public and both equally 11 percent, 33 percent said they trust Donald Trump versus 7 percent who said that they trust Elon Musk.
06:08So the level of trust when it comes to Trump and his administration around economic policy is four or five times higher than when it comes to Elon.
06:20Then we asked, you know, what were the motivations around the fight?
06:24Did you think that Musk was acting out of genuine concern for economic policy or was he more motivated by his personal and business?
06:32I said some 41 percent, mostly motivated by personal and business gain, followed by 35 percent said a mix of both, followed by 12 percent said it was a genuine concern for national economic policy.
06:48So, again, some of the motivations, the fact that the tax credits were eliminated from the bill and there were several provisions in there that would personally harm for most businesses.
07:01This was not lost on the general public.
07:04And Elon might have truly been motivated by general concern.
07:09And voters actually do share concern around the bill that it will add to the national debt.
07:17And they're very split on the bill that Trump is trying to put forward, the big, beautiful bill because of that.
07:24But it didn't really come through within the fight.
07:27Right. And, you know, the labeling, calling it a disgusting abomination, people were very split on whether it was appropriate or inappropriate.
07:37So, you know, this is one of those temporary fights has already blown over the plurality, you know, 40 percent said that this is a temporary fight, whereas the rest, you know, either put their heads up in the air when we asked the questions that too early to tell only about a quarter said that there is a growing divide.
07:59And the fact that Elon apologized, that kind of shifted course, says a lot about the way that public opinion settled pretty quickly after the start of this fight.
08:12And let's talk about the moment we saw this fight really ratchet up, which you described as when Elon Musk really went after the big, beautiful bill.
08:21And President Trump characterized that legislation as arguably the most significant piece of legislation that will ever be signed.
08:27This is his hallmark policy in here.
08:30Elon Musk called it a disgusting abomination.
08:33Where do the American people feel?
08:35Where do they more side with when it comes to this legislation?
08:38Do they feel like it's that important, as President Trump says?
08:42Do they think it's a disgusting abomination, like how Elon Musk characterized it?
08:46I mean, what do they make of this act?
08:49Well, they're somewhere in the middle, right?
08:52First off, voters are split in their understanding of whether or not the TCJA, the original tax bill from 2017, led to economic growth and prosperity, or whether it just got to debt.
09:08So that's the starting point.
09:10Then, when you ask them, you know, will it increase, making these tax cuts permanent, before you get into the elements of the big, beautiful bill, because it's a wide-ranging bill, when you ask them, you know, will it increase debt or will it decrease it?
09:26By a factor of 2 to 1, they think that it will increase debt.
09:29So 40% said increased debt, 21% said decreased the debt in the long term because of economic growth and several other provisions in the package, and the rest were unsure.
09:41So while two-thirds of voters have heard of Trump's big, beautiful bill, and there are provisions in that bill that they like, specific line items, they're very concerned on whether or not the bill balances tax relief and spending, and they really right now think that it adds too much to the federal debt.
10:06And therefore, they're quite split on it, quite split on whether it will make the economy worse or it will improve the economy.
10:15Trump has not sold the public yet on the big, beautiful bill.
10:21That's the bottom line.
10:22And so we saw this last month.
10:25It narrowly passed in a House vote.
10:27It's now before the Senate.
10:28And something that Democrats and Republicans, lawmakers in the House and the Senate, the only thing all of them can really agree on is that changes,
10:36changes will need to be made in order for it to even have a chance at passing in the Senate.
10:41And the few points of contention you touched on, one of them being the national debt.
10:45And the CBO, which is a nonpartisan office, said that this will add $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.
10:53Another point of contention are Medicaid cuts, which will leave millions uninsured over the next decade.
10:59What do people think about that?
11:01Are they concerned that millions of people will be left without insurance with this bill?
11:06So, you know, when we asked the question about imposing work requirements on Medicaid and SNAP recipients,
11:17and that's the functional language that we tested as part of the bill,
11:22actually 51% support the provision and only 44% are against it, with 15% being roughly in the middle.
11:35So, it really depends how it's framed.
11:40In general, voters do not want their entitlements.
11:44They do not want these programs to be touched, even though at the same time an overwhelming amount supports balanced budgets going forward,
11:55which, by definition, would actually require a lot of cuts to these different types of programs.
12:05So, it's really a question of how it's framed and which side exhibits leadership on the specific provisions.
12:17I think that net-net, when it comes to imposing work requirements on Medicaid and SNAP recipients,
12:23it obviously there's an affected demographic that is going to cry foul and is going to push very hard to make sure that these benefits are not lost.
12:34But the public net-net on that specific provision would go with Trump.
12:39Not by a lot, but it would go with Trump.
12:42I want to talk about tariffs now because that seems to be one of the main factors that's dragging down President Trump's approval rating just a little bit.
12:50And we're not seeing much movement on the negotiation on the deals aspect of these tariffs.
12:55Last week, we did see a handshake for a framework for a deal between the United States and China.
13:01But the tariff deadline does loom.
13:04It's less than a month away before those reciprocal tariffs go back in place, before deals need to be made.
13:10I mean, what do the American people think about all the tariff talk?
13:15Well, they're split down the middle.
13:17I mean, they're still hopeful that Trump will reach a deal with the Chinese.
13:21And they're hopeful that Trump will usher the economy into a better place.
13:27These are some of the reasons why they voted for Trump.
13:31So he hasn't quite lost that.
13:33But really, Trump owns the economy right now.
13:37And voters are very, very split about what's happening.
13:40So we asked a series of questions around tariffs and the economy.
13:44And it really illustrates where things stand, right?
13:48So we asked, who do you trust more to manage the economy?
13:51The Trump administration and Republicans or Democrats in Congress?
13:5550-50 split.
13:57Who is mostly responsible for the state of the economy today?
14:00Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
14:0255% Donald Trump.
14:04He owns it.
14:05Do you think Trump's policies are making the U.S. economy stronger or weaker?
14:1051% stronger, 59% weaker.
14:13That's a statistical guide.
14:14Are Trump's policies leading to more or less jobs in the country?
14:1949% more, 51% less.
14:22Again, a statistical tie.
14:24Are Trump's policies leading to more or less investment in the country?
14:28This is a big issue for Trump, right?
14:29He went to the Gulf region and announced trillions of dollars worth of investments.
14:34The voters aren't really sold on it.
14:3749% say leading to more investment.
14:4051% say less investment.
14:42Is Trump winning or losing the battle against inflation?
14:4644% winning, 56% losing.
14:49This is a concerning statistic for Trump.
14:53Are Trump's tariff policies boosting or harming the economy?
14:56Again, a concerning statistic.
14:5957% say that his tariff policies are harming the economy.
15:03But then when you ask how confident are you that Trump's economic policies will lead to stronger economic growth, 47% say confident.
15:13So a little bit down from last month where it was at 50% and 55% not confident.
15:19So there isn't really a question that we ask about the economy or about the tariffs or about inflation that doesn't have the public very, very split.
15:29And this is cause for a lot of concern with Trump because arguably you could say that he shot himself in the foot by pushing too many tariffs, too deep, too hard, too fast.
15:41The economy has proven remarkably resilient, but really there is a gap between whether or not voters today think the country is headed in the right direction and whether or not they think the economy is strong.
15:55A majority think the economy is strong, but a majority, a bigger majority of 60% or plus, actually think the country and the economy is headed in the wrong direction.
16:05And so I think that three weeks from now, a month from now, we'll be monitoring very closely together what happens once the tariffs come due.
16:14But that is a moment in time that holds a lot for good or for bad for the Trump administration and how the first six months shape up to be.
16:24That's especially alarming for President Trump considering that he won the election in large part because voters thought he could handle top issues like the economy better than Vice President Trump.
16:35Kamala Harris.
16:36Another one of those issues is immigration.
16:38I want to talk about that now because we saw protests break out all over the country over ICE and their deportation practices.
16:46But about a week and a half ago, we saw demonstrations in Los Angeles over workplace raids by ICE and the scene on the ground by some reports has been called largely peaceful with pockets of violence and chaos.
16:58We've also seen images and heard stories of cars being lit on fire, vandalism and skirmishes between law enforcement and protesters.
17:07We even saw a video of a motorcycle driving into police officers.
17:10So what do voters and Americans think about the scene in Southern California over the past week and a half?
17:16Well, voters are clearly against violence and the paradox in the public opinion around the L.A. riots is that a majority, 56 percent, believe that Trump should have the power to trigger the National Guard in those types of situations.
17:33And they supported Trump sending the troops to quell the violence.
17:39At the same time, though, 55 percent believe that Trump really escalated the situation.
17:47escalated the situation through the very strong handed immigration raids in a corner of the country that has a lot of immigrants.
17:57And I'm sure that that was deliberate by the administration and then also escalated it by immediately sending the National Guard rather than relying on some kind of a process.
18:13So actually, the public and voters are very sensible in their position.
18:18On one side, a very strong majority said that the mayor in L.A. and the governor in California should have done more to condemn the violence.
18:31They should have sent the police to protect the federal agent from violent acts.
18:37And because they didn't do this, Trump was justified in sending the National Guard and the Marines to protect the ICE agents.
18:47But at the same time, when it comes to who created the combustible environment, they blame more Trump than they blame Democratic leaders.
18:56And again, this is the story on immigration, right?
19:00The goals of the president's policy, closing the borders, removing criminal immigrants from the country as fast as we can.
19:10And they have overwhelming support, right?
19:12Two thirds support closing the borders or clamping it down.
19:16And three fourths, 75 percent support removing illegal immigrants who are criminals.
19:23But at the same time, 5050 believe that good people are actually being removed.
19:33One of the goals should be criminal illegal immigrants.
19:37And the majority support Democrats fighting for due process.
19:41I believe that Democrats are standing up for citizens rights and human rights when they're doing so.
19:47So really, I would say that bottom line, it's the execution that is challenging for the administration.
19:55Sometimes the antagonism, it's almost pre-designed in terms of how these policies are carried out.
20:03But voters still support Trump when it comes to the policies I've saw.
20:07And something you've alluded to in this conversation is that standoff between Governor Gavin Newsom and President Trump.
20:13Because against the governor's wishes, President Trump deployed the National Guard and then additional Marine troops.
20:19And this was the first time a president has done this without a governor asking in 60 years.
20:25So it's what you're saying that the American people are more in the middle when it comes to this issue.
20:29They can almost see both sides.
20:31But they do think that the Trump administration is being is acting a little too much in this situation.
20:39Yeah, I mean, there's precedent for the president using the National Guard to restore order or push for a federal policy that's not being enacted at the state level.
20:53In the 1960s, during the Civil Rights Act era, Eisenhower, Kennedy, several presidents actually used the National Guard to push through for policies.
21:06So I think that where it comes down to it is that voters do not want violence and voters still are in a way that see posture when it comes to Trump policies.
21:20They're really allowing President Trump to play his hand when it comes to his policies and his promises, which almost all have majority approval.
21:31And that's where the Democrats are getting it wrong because they are essentially resisting many policies that voters are in favor of where Trump is getting it wrong and where the Democrats are seizing the opportunity at winning points with the electorate is really in the execution of these policies.
21:52Some of these policies are not very well thought out of many of these policies are being enacted in a very antagonizing way.
21:59And voters also don't like that. So you're right. Voters are in the middle, but they're showing remarkable or public opinion is reflecting remarkable sensibility when it comes to how they're judging the actions from both sides.
22:16And really key for both sides, whether there is Donald Trump on one side or Gavin Newsom and Karen Bass, if the situation in L.A. continues on the other side, is that whoever shows the most sensibility and acts the most pragmatically is the one that's going to win points in the in the court of public opinion on this issue.
22:38I'm curious just how generous you think or you've seen in the past the American people be when it comes to waiting and seeing, because I could see if it was a president's first term.
22:49Right. And you wait the first six months. You see how things go out. You let them settle in.
22:55But this is technically I know it's different times, but technically President Trump's second term.
23:00I know he had that four year break, but it is his second term.
23:03So he's been a president now for four years and six months, roughly.
23:08I mean, how much longer are the Americans going to give him that benefit of waiting and seeing?
23:13Well, it depends on whether or not Trump has wins to show to his base and the broader public or not.
23:20American voters like accomplishment. They like winning.
23:24And I will give you kind of the story of where the public is through three different questions and three different charts that we asked.
23:32You know, we asked the question, do you think Democrats should oppose everything the Trump administration is doing or should they take more of a wait and see attitude towards his actions?
23:42Fifty eight percent said take more of a wait and see attitude.
23:45We then asked, do you think Democrats should oppose Trump on tariffs and trade policy or should they see how this initiative plays out over the next few months?
23:56They're more split there. You know, forty nine percent say oppose.
24:00Fifty one percent say see how the tariffs play out.
24:04And then on the question of do you think the Democrats should oppose Trump on immigration policy or see how this initiative plays out?
24:12That on immigration, Trump has more to show than on the economy and tariffs and other issues.
24:17There are 40 sorry, 54 percent say let it play out at 46 percent.
24:24A growing share of the voter base say oppose Trump on immigration.
24:29So I think that as we approach the six month mark, if Trump has wins, the public understands that these wins are not just red meat for the base,
24:39but they're pushing the country towards a better place, they will give him more runway.
24:45And as he fires these wins, he has then the ability to move forward and push for more of his policies.
24:56And if he doesn't and if there is another debacle on tariffs, then what you'll see is the job approval dropping even further and voters saying,
25:09OK, now we let you we let you play your hand.
25:13You weren't really able to accomplish what you say you were.
25:17By the way, these questions, this is the midterm playing out live in front of our eyes a year and a half before the midterm actually happens.
25:28The midterm will be decided by questions like this.
25:32And this is why we're tracking the specific questions, because if voters still give Trump the benefit of that, then the Republicans will be heading into the midterms with a lot of wind in their back, a lot of tailwind.
25:46And if these numbers flip and voters all of a sudden say played your hand, we're not giving you a wait and see attitude anymore.
25:54Then you should expect the Democrats to have the tailwind as they go out to the midterm.
25:59And I do want to take our eyes off of domestic issues for a moment and look abroad.
26:04I want to look at the Middle East because it's important to note, first of all, that this poll was taken before Israel struck some of Iran's nuclear and military sites last week.
26:13And we are continuing to see escalation in that conflict there.
26:17But the timing of the attack was important.
26:19And some of the questions go on about that, because it comes as the United States has held multiple rounds of talks with Iran regarding a potential nuclear deal.
26:28A sixth one was scheduled for this past weekend, but that was ultimately canceled after Israel struck Iran.
26:33But what do people think about the United States and Iran talking, a potential nuclear deal?
26:38What does that really look like?
26:41A great question.
26:42I mean, as you mentioned, this poll wasn't filled before Israel struck Iran.
26:47And while the majority of the public, 60 percent, supported President Trump engaging Iran directly for negotiations over their nuclear weapons,
27:00frankly, 85 percent believe that Iran should not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
27:09And they want 74 percent said that giving up their nuclear enrichment capabilities should be a precondition for any deal.
27:21So the public is actually quite hawkish when it comes to Iran policy, because for many years they viewed Iran as the source of instability in the Middle East.
27:32And for good reason, right?
27:34I mean, this has played out over many, many years since the first Trump administration and all the way up until today.
27:42So when we ask some more difficult questions like, would you support or oppose taking out Iran's nuclear weapons in a military operation?
27:51Fifty four percent said support and 46 percent said oppose without naming who it is.
27:56Right. So they could have considered this to be the United States.
28:00And then we asked a further question.
28:03I've said if no acceptable deal with Iran is reached over its nuclear capability and nuclear weapons,
28:09should the administration support or oppose an Israeli effort to take out Iran's nuclear weapons program?
28:15And here's 60 percent said support.
28:19That includes 54 percent of independents, 78 percent of Republicans and even 47 percent of Democrats.
28:28So as this war is playing out, the country is actually siding with Israel and supporting what Israel is doing in terms of removing Iran's nuclear capabilities
28:39and some other military capabilities because they view Iran as the main culprit of instability death in the Middle East today.
28:50Well, Driton, I really appreciate you coming on, sharing these really fascinating numbers.
28:56I love getting a glimpse of where the American people are at in every step of President Trump's second term.
29:02I'm already looking forward to our next conversation.
29:04Thank you so much for joining me.
29:06See you next month.
29:07Thank you, Brooke.
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