On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll showing a 5-point jump in positive economic sentiment, helping President Trump's approval rating to hold steady, as well as what voters consider his biggest achievement and his greatest failure in the early months of his second presidency.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Harris X founder and CEO Drayton Esho. Drayton, thanks so much for joining me.
00:12Wonderful to be back, Brittany. How are you?
00:15I am good, thank you. And you have a new Harvard Caps Harris poll,
00:19and I want to talk about some big things that you found out from it.
00:23You and I have been talking now for over a year, and the top issue facing voters consistently is
00:28the economy, the economy, the economy. And I'm curious now, as we sit here, we are exactly
00:33four months into President Trump's second term. How do voters feel about the economy?
00:39Well, it looks like economic sentiment has rebounded. And the reason why I choose the
00:45word rebounded is because there was a big jump after the election in terms of how Americans
00:51viewed the direction of the country, the direction of the economy, and really the
00:56strength of the economy. And these were not small jumps. We're talking about double-digit
01:01jumps, 10 points or more, when it came to the perceived direction of things. And frankly,
01:08the thing that upended that jump or that positive trend was Trump's tariffs policies,
01:15which were announced in early April, which for over six in 10 voters, they felt that
01:21he went too far in terms of applying those tariffs, or the tariffs were too broad, too deep,
01:29too rash, in true Trump fashion. And so if you isolate the impact of the tariffs, which by and
01:37large, these 90-day pauses have isolated, and the disruption that the tariffs caused to the
01:45markets, you actually have voters now, for the first time in four years,
01:50saying that the economy is stronger rather than weaker. In this poll, one of the big takeaways
01:57is that 51% view the economy as being strong today, versus 49% who do not. And that is a very large
02:06reversal that essentially reasserts that trend that we saw right after the election,
02:13and in the beginning of the Trump presidency. So some positive news for the administration
02:20on the economy, if the administration doesn't keep on disrupting the economy and the markets.
02:27I mean, that's just an incredible jump, especially from what we saw throughout the
02:31Biden administration and all of 2024. So why do you think as of right now, there is this much
02:39more optimism about the economy than what we saw even last month?
02:44Well, it seems to be tracking with the decrease of inflation. And actually, actual inflation
02:52in the country, as reported in April, was 2.3%, which is very, very close to the target inflation
03:00rate of 2%. And voters are picking up on this. We ask a trended question for many, many years now,
03:07which is, is your personal financial situation declining or improving? And what we're seeing
03:14is that since the election, and certainly since the correction on the tariffs,
03:21voters indicate that their personal financial situation is improving and they are better off.
03:30They still view inflation as a problem. And that is more of a gauge of the fact that prices are
03:37very high. But part of the problem is that the growth of prices has been corrected and voters
03:46seem to be picking up on that. And I'm actually going to cite for you exactly the statistics,
03:50because I think it's very important for the viewers. But really, voters who say
03:58their financial situation is getting worse have dropped by six points since the election from
04:0546% to 39%, so 47 points. And actually voters who say that their personal financial situation
04:13is improving is up eight points now at about 38%. So all of the metrics, they're starting to
04:22come together and it's pointing to consumers actually feeling better off, even though there
04:31might not be expressing optimism about the state of the economy, given all the disruptions that
04:36have gone on. If I were the Trump administration right now, I would be breathing a sigh of relief.
04:41I mean, this is really good news for them because you and I talked last in the beginning of April
04:46after Liberation Day, where President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariff policy. His approval
04:52rating took a hit since then because of the tariff policy. And you said that there were hazard lights
04:57blinking for the administration, yellow, and some of them were red. One and a half months from
05:02Liberation Day. How do people feel about tariffs now, especially because the markets have largely
05:08rebounded since the initial shock? Well, they're still concerned about tariffs and tariff policy.
05:17But given the pause, there has been a correction, not only in consumer economic sentiment and in
05:24voter economic sentiment, but really in terms of the job approval that Trump is receiving
05:31from voters. So in April, he was at about 48 percent approval before he unleashed the
05:40Liberation Day and all of the tariffs. And now he's just down a point at 47 percent approval.
05:46We track voter approval every single day through our overnight poll. And there was a dip, a fairly
05:55strong dip. And the president has recovered since then. So approvals are directly correlated with
06:03how voters view Trump. And really, it's a policy that there's a lot of questions around. Voters
06:14are split 50-50 whether or not the approvals, the tariffs will lead to anything meaningful or not.
06:24So everyone is really in a wait and see mode. And the administration has to tread very carefully
06:31when it comes to tariffs going forward. And there are still dozens of deals left to be unveiled,
06:37left to be hammered out. But how now, let's turn to President Trump. How do voters feel about him
06:42four months into a second term? Well, it's clear that President Trump has some clear
06:49wins, especially when it comes to closing the southern border and immigration. That is seen
06:57as the biggest accomplishment by voters in a very, very clear fashion. And in fact, to mark
07:05the hundred days of the new administration, we asked voters, what are the biggest achievements
07:10of the administration to date? And what are the biggest failures of the administration to date?
07:15And again, I'll read from the statistics, but stopping illegal immigration and closing the
07:21border and deporting criminals is widely seen as the biggest achievement that the administration
07:28has had so far, period. And I would say by a stretch. But when you look at the biggest failures,
07:35voters clearly say that the tariffs which disrupted the economy are the biggest failures.
07:42And then there's also cautionary notes about Trump going beyond the guardrails, meaning that he's
07:48making a lot of executive orders that go beyond his authority. That is a cause for concerns for
07:55voters. And frankly, they actually call it out as the second largest failure in the first 100 days,
08:05not staying within the guardrails. So voters are very sane and very sanguine about the state
08:11of things. And they're giving the Trump administration clear messages on what they view
08:18as the accomplishments and what they view as cause for concerns. And there's a deep immigration
08:26section within this poll that we can talk about in a minute that basically points to all of the
08:35yellow and red lights for the Trump administration, even within the area of accomplishment,
08:40which has been immigration and sealing the border. And some of those yellow and red lights,
08:46as you said, are him going beyond the guardrails. And this isn't really new to President Trump.
08:52He's always at least, I mean, generously speaking, toed the line, if not completely
08:57gone over a line. I mean, what are some of those guardrails that voters say are concerning voters?
09:05Well, let's look at it in terms of the immigration issue, right? On the positive side,
09:1263 percent of voters support the administration's actions to close the southern border. And 75
09:20support deporting illegal criminals and the judgment that the administration has applied
09:28on deporting illegal immigrants. However, there are concerns about due process, and 53 percent
09:34of voters say that the administration is actually unfairly deporting people who are not really
09:40criminals. Right. So when it comes to that, the big issue around do illegals in the United States,
09:49undocumented immigrants have due process rights? Voters tend to lean and say yes. However,
09:57they draw the dividing line whether or not there's proven criminal activity or not. So the
10:03onus is on the administration to prove that clearly before it takes action. Until then,
10:0957 percent of the voters in the survey essentially said that they support actions by the Democratic
10:16Party to stop the deportations and ensure that hearings and trials, aka due process,
10:23are taking place before those deportations. And 59 percent believe that Democrats are supporting
10:30human rights and legal rights by doing so. So the Democrats have a bit of an issue here
10:37on the deportations. And the Trump administration really has to tread carefully in terms of how it
10:46handles deportations. Otherwise, it will be perceived as them stepping beyond their guardrails,
10:54going in controversy on the courts. And, you know, they'll take a political hit because of that.
11:01And when you break all of this down by demographic, Trump support, Trump policy support,
11:07the economy, how people feel about their personal financial situation, what does that really look
11:13like? Is it deeply divided based on party? When you look at demos, what are you seeing?
11:19That's a that's a great question. I mean, I would say that Trump has a net positive
11:27approval for most demographics, except for very young voters, those in the 18 to 24 range and
11:36older voters, 65 plus. And this was actually surprising because for most of the voter groups
11:43in the middle, they seem to think that he's doing a better job rather than not. He is doing very
11:52well with whites. He is doing badly with black voters. And importantly, in the last election,
12:01the one voter segment that really made all the difference, or if you were to sort of isolate
12:07one voter segment, that was the reason why Trump won the election and kind of moved past the finish
12:16line. It was Hispanics. And even with Hispanics, he is trailing about 11 points or so. That's in
12:24line with his electoral performance. But it's important that he focuses on Hispanics as a voter
12:31group going into the midterms. And Hispanic voters are largely economic voters. So, again, we come
12:36back to the theme of the economy, not disrupting the economy and making sure that there are wins
12:42to show for the tariffs. And voters are split. They're still willing to give Trump time on the
12:49tariffs. But the administration has to actually approach this in a much more strategic way and in
12:55a much more targeted way rather than as a blanket approach and as a very, very strong sort of
13:03deep tariffs position at the beginning. And then let's see where the pieces fall. Voters don't
13:09seem to like that so far. And again, it could impact the administration as it starts gearing up
13:16for midterms and starts, you know, defending the position of the Republican Party heading into the
13:22midterms. Let's talk about each of these parties now, because the Republican Party and the Democrat
13:28Party have faced their own set of unique issues within the past couple of weeks. The Republican
13:34Party has had some issues being unified behind Trump's what he calls one big, beautiful bill.
13:40Democrats, on the other hand, have a major trust issue that they're dealing with right now as new
13:46reporting comes out on President Biden's health, his mental acuity, his cognitive abilities while
13:52he was in office and who knew what, when. And I mean, there is a question of what did who know
13:58who knew what, when A and B, were they lying to the American people? And Democrats really have
14:03to grapple with that right now. How do voters feel about each party today? Well, the Democratic
14:11Party is clearly in the wilderness right now with voters. It has an approval rating of 42 percent
14:19and that is significantly underwater. Also, it's lagging the approval of the GOP by 10 points.
14:28The GOP actually has a net positive approval and perceptions are growing because voters seem
14:35to think that the GOP is actually trying to do something rather than trying to rehash and
14:41litigate the past. And it's taking a more proactive posture and governing rather than trying to
14:48stonewall what is going on. And therein lies the challenge for the Democrats. They have to shed
14:54these negative perceptions and come out with a platform and with a clear set of policies that
15:02stand apart from what Trump is doing or create a choice between the Democrats and the Republicans
15:08at this stage. So, I think that that is the challenge facing. There are some opportunities
15:18for them to step up and mount principle challenge like on deportations as we saw
15:25just in the previous set of data and also in terms of the process. And also, when we look at
15:35Trump's approval rating on the various different issues and this really tracks with how Republicans
15:41are perceived, I would say that, again, Trump is still a little bit under on the economy at 46%
15:49approval. He's doing very well on immigration. That's a strength for Trump and the Republicans
15:54at this stage. They are 46% when it comes to foreign affairs. Voters are yet to be convinced
16:02that there's a deal coming on Ukraine and Russia or Israel and Gaza or beyond, although they
16:10welcome some of the more recent moves and trade diplomacy with the Middle East, as we saw at this
16:17survey. They think that Trump is doing a decent job administering the government and the Republicans.
16:23And what's driving those positive perceptions and things that are around 47% there is the cost
16:30cuts that DODGE has made and the fact that a small number of Americans actually think
16:36DODGE has been effective. Despite the chaos, despite the fact that they think that
16:42Musk in the beginning was too rough in terms of how he started to make the cuts, they do view
16:48that initiative as being positive. And again, when it comes to reducing the cost of government,
16:55Trump has a 49% approval rating. In a similar fashion, returning America to its core values,
17:0251% believe that Trump and the Republicans have a positive job approval there. So really,
17:08what remains as an Achilles heel for the administration is inflation, where Trump
17:15and the Republicans have about a 43% job approval rating. And again, trade and tariff policy,
17:23where it's a 42% approval rating, significant underwater, because of all of the different
17:28disruptions. So in all of these signals, Republicans have to latch on to the weaknesses
17:34of the administration, especially around tariffs, especially around inflation and especially around
17:41how it's going about doing what it's doing and either try to triangulate the administration or
17:48offer a frame of choice that voters can rally around. I want to talk about specific people
17:57in the administration. You're saying now, four months in, people have a much more favorable view
18:03of Doge than they did in the past. Elon Musk didn't have a good approval rating the past
18:08couple of months. He's seen as President Trump's one of his senior advisers. He's seen as the face
18:13of Doge. What do people think about him now? Is his approval still underwater? What does that look
18:18like? Musk's approval is still underwater and he did take a hit because of Doge and really how
18:28Doge started and started to do it. But it seems to be slowly rebounding. So at its first large,
18:36Musk's approval was under by 12 points. And right now it stands at 41% favorable, 49%
18:46unfavorable. So it's showing some signs of covering, especially as Doge has more to show
18:54for its initiatives. And in general, Trump has a flat approval rating, 47% favorable to 47%
19:07unfavorable. Some of the members of his administration like Bobby Kennedy Jr. are
19:14seen very positively, 46% favorable, 37% unfavorable. So plus nine difference in terms of
19:22a positive difference in terms of favorability. And also Marco Rubio is viewed particularly
19:28favorably, 36% favorable, 32% unfavorable with a net positive of 4% and the rest still waiting to
19:38make up their mind. So it's not a bad picture. In some cases, it's a positive picture, especially
19:47for some of the secretaries in the administration. I do now want to zoom out a little bit and set
19:53our sights internationally. President Trump last week took his first major foreign trip,
19:59and he went to the Middle East, went to a few countries there. Business deals were on the
20:03forefront, and diplomacy, foreign diplomacy was in the backseat. And notably, he did not visit
20:08Israel, the United States' biggest ally in the region, while he was on this trip. But last week,
20:14ethical national security and legal questions were raised after news broke that the royal
20:19family of Qatar planned to gift President Trump a luxury $400 million plane. Trump said that the
20:26plane was a great gesture on behalf of the Qataris, and essentially only a stupid person
20:30would reject it. Do the American people agree? I mean, you asked voters how they feel about the
20:35Qatari plane. What did they say? Well, on that specific issue, 62% of voters say that it raises
20:46ethical concerns about corruption. And part of it, it's because it's not really a gift to the
20:52United States government, but it's a gift to the Trump library. That plane would be retrofitted to
20:59be Air Force One, probably at great cost. And then it belongs to the library, which means that Trump
21:05can continue using this mega luxury jet while he's alive, and frankly, the library afterwards.
21:14So it's a reasonable position. And again, close to two-thirds of voters feel uncomfortable
21:22with that decision. Trump has majority support amongst Republicans at 60% to be able to accept
21:30the plane. And what's playing strongly with Republicans is the fact that it's a half a
21:35billion dollar gift to the United States and to the president. But the Republicans are uneasy.
21:4362% of independents, very importantly, are uneasy with the decision that says it raises concerns,
21:49and 85% of Democrats as well. Now, I will say that stepping back, the recent trip to the Middle East
21:57was wildly successful for Trump, and 59% of voters support his administration's efforts to have
22:06strong relations with Saudi Arabia, which is a country that Americans haven't always trusted
22:12and haven't always viewed positively, especially in the wake of 9-11. And again, the initiatives
22:21that Trump has taken in Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf region, people are willing to give them a
22:27chance, especially because they carry a big ticket economic benefit in the trillions of dollars,
22:36given the sizes of the deals that have been signed. They also essentially
22:45believe that this is a path to resolving the Israel-Hamas conflict. And again, Trump still
22:55has net positive support when it comes to his handling of that conflict, even though voters
23:02do not believe that there will be any kind of resolution to that war anytime soon, especially
23:09given the posture between Israel and the United States and what seems to be a cooling relationship
23:16between Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump. And now I want to turn to the other war, the war
23:22between Russia and Ukraine that has been raging on for over three years. President Trump has put
23:27himself in the middle, saying, I am the person that can there's only a breakthrough if I talk
23:32to Putin. And he's put himself in the center of the negotiations. He's been trying to broker a
23:38ceasefire agreement. How do people feel that he's been handling these talks? Well, look,
23:47President Trump said that he's waiting to see whether or not Vladimir Putin is
23:53tapping him along. Right. And actually over two thirds of voters already believe that the
23:59Russian president is playing games and stalling the U.S. and the West. That is diametrically
24:08opposed to a similar number of people, 62 percent, who actually believe that Ukraine and Ukraine's
24:14leader, President Zelensky, genuinely wants to end the war. So voters are a lot more clear-eyed
24:23than Trump is when it comes to who they're dealing with. And as a result, they're not
24:30particularly confident that Trump is going to go anywhere in terms of being able to broker a deal
24:39to the war. Over six in 10 voters believe that Trump was not going to be successful.
24:46Further to that, I would say that American voters believe that the Trump administration
24:52should continue to support Ukraine. We asked them, should he continue to provide weaponry
24:58to Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia if the Russians continue not to be serious about
25:04reaching a deal and ending the war? And 62 percent of voters said yes. So that is a majority position
25:12that also carries 59 percent of Republicans along with it. And again, 64 percent of voters
25:21also believe that Ukraine should receive direct security guarantees from the U.S. if it is to make
25:28concessions to end the war with Russia, which Ukraine has said it is willing to do so. Lastly,
25:35I would say that voters are overall split on whether or not they're satisfied with Trump's
25:44negotiations with Russia. And 59 percent believe that Trump has not been tough enough when dealing
25:52with Putin and the Russians. And almost a roughly equivalent number think that he's been too tough
25:58with Zelensky. So they're sending a message to Trump. You have to understand who is willing to
26:04play ball here, aka the Ukrainians, and who is not willing to play ball and is trying to pull the wool
26:10on the administration's eyes, which is the Russians. And you have to react accordingly.
26:17Don't beat up our friends and play nice with our enemies. Show strength to our enemies and sit them
26:24down on the negotiating table so that there is a deal and so that the bloodshed ends. And in that
26:31regard, they are aligned with Trump on the goal. They just don't believe that he's approaching it
26:37in the way that they expect that Trump to approach it. Really, for decades, President Trump
26:44has publicized himself as the art of the deal, the master negotiator. As you said,
26:50he publicly ruminated. Is Putin tapping me along? He had a two hour phone call with Putin on Monday
26:59morning. He said it was excellent. He said the tone of and spirit of the call were excellent.
27:04But experts I talked to said that the phone call Putin could have been placating him. There were no
27:10concessions made there from the call. If there's a deal that's not made between Russia and Ukraine,
27:17that brings lasting peace. If the American people and if the world thinks that Putin is getting won
27:23over on Trump, if Putin is just leading Trump along, like Trump himself suggested, I mean,
27:29will that affect President Trump's approval rating in the long term?
27:34Well, look, this is not a winning issue necessarily for Trump, at least as it's currently
27:42being approached. And voters don't have very high expectations. So if you're in the administration,
27:49you want to show voters that you are creating the necessary environment to sit both parties
27:58at the table. Part of that is through carrot and part of that invariably has to be through stick.
28:06He's used the stick on the Ukrainians, but he hasn't used the stick on the Russians. And
28:12voters are basically saying there needs to be more balance in the approach, more favor towards
28:18the Ukrainians and more toughness towards the Russians. And, you know, this is an issue that
28:25is perhaps a secondary issue, but not one of the primary issues. President Trump, still in
28:33the promises that he made in the election, there's frankly, you know, two or three of those promises
28:40or of those policies that don't score above the 50 percent support. And some of the recent movements
28:47that he has made, especially in terms of cutting drug costs, are viewed overwhelmingly positively
28:55by voters. And also, if he's able to push forward a tax bill that doesn't load the country with more
29:05debt. And that is the critical factor. Voters also view that as a vile pursuit. So there's better
29:12policies and issues to focus on for the administration than Russia, Ukraine. I think
29:18that the right approach there is to create the right environment and to make sure that voters
29:23don't think that we're beating up our friends but placating our enemies. So just to go over some
29:30main takeaways here from this poll, pros for the Trump administration and President Trump himself.
29:36People are viewing the economy more favorably now than they have in recent months. Also,
29:42the Trump administration's work on immigration has been viewed in a positive light. Cons, inflation
29:48is still not where people think it needs to be, as well as people think that the Trump
29:53administration and the President himself are perhaps going too far on certain issues.
29:57Guardrails are kind of being crossed. For Democrats, you're saying that they are in
30:02the wilderness now and they have to look inward and see where they're going next as a party,
30:07especially as we approach midterms. I know they're still a year and a half away.
30:11They have a long time to reflect, but that reflecting needs to be starting soon. Are there
30:16any other takeaways that you think we need to know? Well, that's perfectly stated. And I would
30:21say that Trump has always been his own worst enemy. And you see that with trade and tariff policy.
30:30He disrupted markets. He disrupted this positive trend coming out of the election. And I wouldn't
30:36put it past him to create mistakes along the way in the approach or by being overly zealous
30:45in the approach of his policies. However, most of his policies are viewed very positively,
30:51and that's where that's faced an uphill battle. And I'll read you what voters say about some of
30:59the top promises that Trump has made and recent actions and where they stand on that. And it's
31:06very telling. As I mentioned, lowering prescription drugs, drug prices for Medicare recipients
31:12and low-income patients. Eighty-four percent support. Overwhelming support across
31:20the whole political spectrum. Deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crime.
31:27Seventy percent support. Undertaking a full-scale effort to find and eliminate fraud and waste
31:34in government expenditures. Seventy-one percent. Again, overwhelming support across the political
31:40spectrum on the mission of Doge. Less so how it's been done, but the mission.
31:47Trump floated this idea of raising the top tax rate from 37% to 39.6% on individuals earning
31:58more than $2.5M or families earning more than $5M. Overwhelming support for that as a way to offset
32:06a broader, more general tax cut for middle-income and lower-income Americans.
32:13Closing the border without its security and policies that discourage illegal crossings.
32:19Seventy percent support. Banning men who have undergone operations or hormonal therapy from
32:29women's sports. This is more controversial, but still 66% support, including support from 45%
32:36of Democrats and support from 69% of Independents. Declaring that there's only two genders in all
32:44government forms and programs. Again, very controversial, but 63% support, including
32:5137% of Democrats and 62% of Independents. Making the 2017 tax cut permanent. Sixty-one percent
33:00support. And so on and so forth. Really, in our extensive list of Trump policies that we tested,
33:10there's only two that get below 50% support, and that's placing tariffs on goods from
33:16China, Mexico and Canada to encourage U.S. manufacturing, for which voters don't think
33:21that they're split on whether or not it'll be successful at this stage. And frankly,
33:26they don't think that there should be tariffs on Canada. They view the Canadians as being
33:32friendly and constructive in their posture. They're somewhere in the middle of Mexico,
33:36and they certainly want to isolate China, but it doesn't require global tariffs to do that.
33:42It requires targeted tariffs. And then again, another policy that doesn't have majority support
33:48is making cost cuts to Medicaid programs by adding work requirements for those up to 64 years old,
33:56and also putting caps on further Medicaid expansion. Medicare and Medicaid, like Social
34:00Security, tends to be one of the third rails of American politics. And again, voters are quite
34:07antsy about touching that, and there's a lot of problems with that. But pretty much out of a list
34:13of 25, 26 different policies, only two are below 50%. So Democrats face an uphill battle because
34:22the positioning that Trump and the Republicans have of these policies tends to be a positioning
34:30that most voters, including large swaths of Democrats, actually agree with, which means that
34:37the Democrats will have a more difficult time creating a foil on these issues, or they need
34:44to figure out how to triangulate these issues and say, OK, we will reach the same goal,
34:50but in our way, and do it better, do it with a more humane treatment, or with a less brash
34:56treatment than what the Trump administration is doing. If they can do that, they have a very strong
35:02opportunity in the midterms. And if they can't, the Republicans are likely going to do much better
35:08than people expect. I mean, what you just listed to me really reminded me of a study guide. And I
35:14think if I were from either party, I would be listening and taking note. If I were a Republican
35:19or in the Trump administration, hey, these have overwhelming bipartisan support. These are the
35:24issues we should double down on. These are what people are liking, what they're seeing out of our
35:28administration. If I was a Democrat, I would say, oh, X, Y and Z has overwhelming bipartisan support
35:35even in our own party here. Let's try to focus and massage our policy based around that. But Dritan,
35:41I love our conversations. I could keep going, but we will leave it here. And until next time,
35:46thank you so much for joining me. Well, thank you. And you said it beautifully. We are a study
35:50guide. Go to HarvardHarrisPoll.com and you can find all of this data publicly. And of course,
35:57follow Forbes for the release of the data I've written about.