- 6 days ago
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll showing President Trump's approval rating and how voters feel about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes.
00:07Joining me now is Harris X founder and CEO, Dritan Esho. Dritan, thank you so much for joining me.
00:13Great to be back. Thank you for having me.
00:15The July Harvard Caps Harris X poll just was released, and there are a lot of good bits in
00:22here. It's very wide ranging, and it is a good temperature check of where exactly voters are
00:27about six months into Trump 2.0. So to start off the conversation, what do voters think about Trump?
00:34Where is his approval rating right now? Well, his approval rating has essentially stabilized and
00:41is at 47% approval nowadays. If you remember in the last conversation together, he started off in
00:49February with 52% job approval, the highest that Trump ever received during his first term and in
00:58the second term. And there was this slow decline in March, 49%. In April, 48%. In May, 47%. In June,
01:0846%. But he seems to have stabilized it. And it's really multiple stories that are being threaded
01:18together. He's doing well on immigration, for example, and foreign affairs and also cutting down
01:28costs. But obviously, voters remain concerned about the economy, and especially the tariffs and trade
01:35policy where really the president gets his lowest ratings. So some positives for Trump, and some
01:41negatives as well, all rolled into one. But he seems to be stable. And really, where he goes from here
01:49will hinge a lot on the economy, and again, on tariffs and trade, which seem to be looming once again.
01:58It seems like in every one of our conversations, it's the economy stupid. It all goes back to the economy.
02:04And when the economy is doing well, any president is first to claim that economy as their own.
02:11They say, hey, this is my economy. I'm the person who got us here. If the economy is bad, hey,
02:16it's the last guy's fault. I had nothing to do with this. Or they blame outside factors.
02:21And they try to distance themselves from that economy. A, we know that the economy was one of
02:27the biggest issues, if not the biggest issue facing voters back in 2024. Do voters right now,
02:32are they happy with the state of the economy? A, and B, do they think it's now Trump's economy six
02:38months in? Absolutely. Well, it's clearly Trump's economy. 62% of voters today say that he is mostly
02:46responsible and owns the state of the economy as compared to Joe Biden. Even up to last month,
02:55those numbers were a lot more split, closer to kind of the 50-50 mark. But especially now that
03:02the big, beautiful bill has passed, Trump really owns the economy through and through. The good
03:09news for Trump and the Republicans is that net-net, voters tend to trust them more than Democrats
03:16with managing the economy. 50%, sorry, 53% say that they trust Trump and his administration and the
03:24Republicans more than Democrats in Congress. But it's really a very partisan split. 91% of GOPers,
03:33you know, lean towards the administration and Republicans. 85% of Democrats with Democrats.
03:41And then the coveted independents in the middle are split 50-50. So it shows that it can go in any
03:49direction. Further to that, voters remain divided over the impact of Trump's policies in the first six
03:57months, especially as it relates to the economy and to jobs. When we ask them, are Trump's policies
04:04leading to more or less jobs in the country? 49-51. Again, a split. Are Trump's policies leading
04:20to more or less investment in the country? I mean, Trump is doubting trillions of dollars of investment
04:25coming in. 51% more, 49% less, and so on and so forth. There is one question, though, that should
04:34concern Trump. When we ask, is Donald Trump winning or losing the battle against inflation? 56% say that
04:42he's losing the battle on inflation. And almost half of all voters rate inflation and affordability
04:52as the top issue that matters the most to them. So again, together with trade and tariffs and his
05:00initiatives on the economy, the success of the Republicans in the midterms and beyond and success
05:06of the presidency comes down to tabletop issues, bread and butter issues, as you said, in the opening.
05:14So, you know, keep a close eye out on that. And obviously, the story is unfolding in real time.
05:22And something we've been keeping a close eye on are the tariffs, really ever since Liberation Day.
05:27President Trump has always been a fan of, for decades now, tariffs, saying that he thinks that
05:32they are a good idea. He announced sweeping tariffs on Liberation Day. And Forbes actually has a tracker
05:38of his tariff policies. And since Liberation Day, he has flip-flopped over two dozen times when it
05:44comes to tariffs. And he's even been called Taco Trump. Trump always chickens out. With his tariff
05:50policy, he says that he's going to put these tariffs into effect. And then he gives the countries
05:56more time. Now he kicked the can down the road. It was going to be the reciprocal tariffs were going
06:00to go into effect early July. Now it's August 1st. Are Americans happy with these tariffs? What do they
06:07think about them? Because the economists I've talked to all say a tariff is a tax on the American
06:13consumer. And if Americans are concerned about their pocketbook, if they're concerned with their
06:18prices, the cost of living, what does that mean for them? Well, simply put, 56% of voters believe that
06:28Trump's tariff policies are harming the economy rather than boosting the economy. At the same time,
06:36though, they're quite split on whether they're confident that Trump's policies, including
06:42tariffs, will lead to stronger economic growth versus the 46% who are not confident. So it's a mixed
06:52picture. The president is stable. He's holding his baseline. But by and large, voters have always been
06:59leery of tariffs. And the strategic ambiguity that the administration is preserving by applying tariffs,
07:07then pulling back, applying, then pulling back. I mean, it's literally a negotiation tool for them,
07:14has the benefit of having the markets wait and see all the way to the last minute, not jump to conclusions
07:23because they don't necessarily want to get burned. And Trump is as likely to change his mind as he is to
07:30stay the course. But at the same time, in the substance, everyone is concerned about these tariffs.
07:36And they realize that recalibrating the global economic system and the global economic order,
07:42this is a very, very risky endeavor that might actually bring back inflation, potentially swing the
07:50country into a recession. Americans, remember, don't think that we are in a recession. 56% say that the
07:58economy is doing good. But it's right at the border. And it could go either way. So again, it's very much
08:06split down the middle when it comes to economics, and when it comes to the tariff. And President Trump,
08:14he touted his big, beautiful bill, and he had a goal to get that to his desk by July 4. And that
08:21seems like a tall task at this time, it almost seemed impossible for Republicans to do. But they
08:26did do it. And he signed it into law, it was nearly 1000 pages, and it contains a signature tax and
08:32immigration policies. What do Americans think about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act?
08:36Well, the mark, the administration didn't do a very good job marketing the big, beautiful bill. And it
08:46was labeled by the Democrats and by Elon Musk and by other parties, the big, ugly bill faster than they
08:56could tout the advantages of the bill. So it's no surprise that voters are split when it comes to the
09:03bill. 44% supported, 44% opposed it, 12% haven't really made up their mind. What's interesting about
09:11the bill, though, is most of the individual elements of the bill receive very, very strong support. Very
09:20few of those elements actually voters view negatively. And I think that important in the administration's
09:31economic strategy has to be a selling of the big, beautiful bill on the back end, making sure that
09:38voters understand the benefits that they're getting from this bill, so that the administration isn't left
09:46holding the bag for all the negative connotation that the bill has been wrapped around. So I wish I had
09:56something other than the picture is still split. But, you know, on the all important question,
10:04will this bill make the economy better or worse? Voters, again, are split. 52% say worse. 48% say
10:13it will improve the economy. So again, lots of work to be done on the economic front by the administration.
10:20Some of the more controversial parts of this bill in the conversations I've had with lawmakers and
10:24strategists were that changes to Medicaid could leave millions of Americans uninsured over the next
10:30decade and that this could add trillions of dollars to the national deficit. What do voters make of that?
10:37Were they concerned about those elements of this bill as well? So in general, any conversation around
10:45Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security, voters are leery towards. And these two items,
10:54which, you know, they also happen to be the largest contributors to the federal budget deficit,
10:59remain the third rail of American politics. But actually, what we see here is that on the issue of
11:09imposing work requirement for Medicaid for adults with dependent children over 14, the picture is split.
11:1851% support it. About, I would say, 36%, a little bit more are against it, and 12% are undecided. So not one of the
11:31overwhelmingly popular items within the bill, but also not one of the worst. Some of the ones that voters
11:39didn't really like were imposing a 5% tax on remittances sent abroad. There's obviously a lot of immigrants in the
11:46United States and they don't agree with that. There's a lot of confusion around the SALT deduction cap, which
11:54really raises the cap to $40,000 for taxpayers under $500,000 and then reverts back after a number of
12:02years. That's split picture within the data and so on and so forth. So the Medicare and Medicaid issue,
12:11for sure, it's an issue that voters are sensitive towards. Adding to the federal budget deficit,
12:18the bill has been painted as a bill that will contribute to the federal budget deficit. So
12:23voters do not want to see those kinds of actions or steps. But as presented on an individual basis,
12:30line by line, actually, even the more controversial elements of the bill, voters are split around them,
12:38which suggests that with a push and a strong and consistent marketing effort, the administration
12:45might be able to win voters over the big, beautiful bill. Within the past six months since President
12:51Trump started his second term, one of his bright spots polling-wise has been his handling of immigration,
12:58despite some critics saying that some of those policies go too far. What do voters think now in
13:04July, are they still happy with how he's handling immigration?
13:09Well, he has his highest approval on the immigration issue at 50%. By and large, Trump wins on most of the
13:18dimensions of the immigration debate, but there are some exceptions. The exceptions really are around due
13:27process. Voters side with Democrats on the importance of offering immigrants due process. And certainly, voters
13:37believe in birthright citizenship. And 65% say that actually the Constitution requires it, versus 35%
13:48who don't say that it requires. So really, the majority would support the children of those who are
13:53here illegally in the United States to automatically become U.S. citizens. So a lot to like on the
14:03immigration side. Voters like the fact that the border has been closed, like the fact that the number
14:11of intercepted illegal crossings has dropped almost to a negligible amount, if not zero, under the Trump
14:19administration. They like the enforcement processes that are going into place. They like the focus on
14:26convicted criminals who are also illegal aliens here. And frankly, they want local governments and law
14:37enforcement to collaborate rather than fight with the administration. But at the same time, they want it to be
14:44done well and to be done sensibly. And we see them breaking with Trump on those specific points. So
14:52immigration is definitely the bright spot of the administration. But even there, there's some work
15:01to be done to do it better and really claim it as a runaway win. And the administration has the
15:08opportunity to do that. If it if it listens to voters and certainly aligns with them on some of these
15:16core issues like birthright citizenship and beyond.
15:20Ritan, another through line we've been having in conversations really since November
15:25is that Democrats have a popularity problem. They seem ever since they lost in November 2024 to be lost in the
15:33wilderness a bit, maybe trying to see what their identity is now in this Trump 2.0, where their
15:39party should be. Should they be more moderate? Should they be more progressive? What does that really look
15:44like? And we've talked about their popularity being underwater. What does it look like right now?
15:52Well, their popularity is still significantly underwater. And this is a party that still hasn't found
16:00its messaging and a new platform after its loss in November. Some of the concerns that are reemerging
16:09around inflation and certainly the issue of affordability give them a potential path forward.
16:16You could say that these were the driving issues that made someone like Zoran Mandani win within the
16:24New York City election primaries a month or so ago, but really the party remains in the wilderness.
16:34Their approval ratings at 40%, one of the lowest that it's ever been. I think that in our poll,
16:42they've only had one other month that it's been lower at 38%. And if you compare it to the Republicans,
16:52the Republicans are at 48% approval and are viewed as a party that is actually doing things and pragmatic and
17:02focusing on engineering different types of solutions, of course, from the Republican perspective. So
17:11the Democrats have to get out there, start fixing things and start coming up with clear messages
17:18changes before, you know, voters start thinking what their choice for the midterm elections will be.
17:28They still have some runway, probably until the end of the year, beginning of next year, but not a lot of run.
17:35I do now want to set our sights abroad for a moment. We know last month the United States did drop multiple
17:42bunker busting bombs on different nuclear sites in Iran and that received mixed support from lawmakers
17:50and from people online. What do voters think? Do they think that was the right move? How did they feel about that?
17:57Well, 58% support Trump's decision to strike at Iran's nuclear reactors and laboratories.
18:07And 54% also view it as a major accomplishment by the US military. Similar numbers say that the action
18:19has served to restore American deterrence in the Middle East and elsewhere. So they like the effect
18:27of the strike. But again, they remain split on whether or not the strike did severe damage to
18:35end Iran's nuclear ambitions. And still 80% believe that the administration and the US in general should
18:44continue to take all actions necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. So voters still remain
18:54hawkish on Iran. Trump won points with his actions. And we'll see what happens with
19:05a potential deal. As you know, the Iranians in the last 24 to 48 hours came back and said that they would
19:11favor a negotiated deal. But even when it comes to a negotiated deal, voters in the United States do not
19:19want a deal that simply delays the development of nuclear weapons by a few years or even a number of years.
19:28they want a deal that permanently blocks it. And that's a tall order. And that's a difficult threshold
19:35to reach. So it might very well be that we haven't seen the end of the Iran story and potential engagements
19:44with Iran. Right now, it's a paused conflict with voters and the administration seeing which way Iran will go
19:54and how it will react and reserving the ability to make a decision based on that.
20:00And then continuing to look in the Middle East, Hamas and Israel have been involved in a war since October
20:072023. How do voters feel about that? Well, voters continue to say that for there to be peace, Hamas
20:18must leave Gaza. 56% believe that any peace deal that comes about has to have Hamas leave Gaza and relinquish
20:32power with Gaza. It should not be a temporary solution. And again, that's very challenging from a political
20:41dynamic perspective. In general, they support Trump's handling of the conflict so far, but only by a
20:50razor thin margin, 53% to 47%. And again, there are growing concerns around the humanitarian nature of
21:01this conflict. So while voters are in favor of strong U.S. support for Israel and believe that Hamas as a
21:08terrorist group has to relinquish its arms and be held accountable for its actions on October the 7th,
21:17there is a growing concern also around the humanitarian crisis that's happening in Gaza.
21:24So the picture is still strongly in support of Israel, but when it comes to the U.S. administration,
21:32voters want to see the administration to engage with both sides of the issue and on the problem,
21:39pushing Hamas out, but also providing relief for the Palestinians.
21:44And then looking at a different war, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,
21:49which has been happening now for over three years, President Trump on the campaign trail said that if he
21:55were president, he would end the war in a day. And we're still waiting for that day. And it seems
21:59like he's his patience is wearing thin with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has adopted a tougher
22:06tone. And he has a joint announcement that he made this week. And I know that this poll was taken before
22:12that announcement. But I'm curious, I'm going to read what the announcement was. And then I want to
22:16see where the poll said and see what the temperature would be from that announcement,
22:20because he threatened Russia with some economic pain. If they did not reach a peace deal with
22:26Ukraine in the next 50 days, he threatened them with 100 percent tariffs. He also threatened
22:31secondary tariffs is what he called them on different countries that are buying Russian oil.
22:36He also announced this roundabout plan where where the United States would sell NATO allies weapons,
22:43and then those NATO allies would then, in turn, give them to Ukraine. Based on the poll,
22:49is there an appetite from the American voters for those types of plans?
22:55Yes, Trump is giving voters on this issue exactly what they are asking. And it's actually one of the
23:02few issues out there that there is cross party alignment across Democrats, Republicans and independents
23:09on. Simply put, 73% of voters believe that Vladimir Putin is playing games and he doesn't want to
23:19end the war. And that includes three fourths of Democrats, two thirds of Republicans, and three
23:25over three fourths of independents. Whereas when you ask them about the Ukrainians and Zelensky,
23:31the numbers flip and they genuinely believe that Zelensky and his team want to end the war. So it's not
23:38just Donald Trump, it's American voters as well that are done with Putin's rope-a-dope strategy and are
23:44basically starting to draw a red line for him and for Russia. And again, we also asked the question,
23:52even though it was before the announcement, should the Trump administration continue to provide
23:57weaponry to Ukraine and impose further economic sanctions on Russia if it refuses to negotiate and
24:04prolongs the bloodshed or should it not do so for fear of antagonizing Russia? 65%, two thirds said,
24:12continue to provide weaponry and impose sanctions. And that includes 70% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans
24:20and 60% of independents. We also asked, should Ukraine receive direct security guarantees from the
24:28United States if he makes concessions to end the war with Russia proactively? Two thirds would support
24:34that. Again, unanimous agreement across the different parties. We asked, do you think Donald Trump has been
24:43too tough or not tough enough? With Vladimir Putin, 60% believe that he hasn't been tough enough, including
24:5173% of Democrats, 58% of independents, and also half of all Republicans. They have 48%. And it's a plurality
25:01opinion. And then finally, and I think that this is the most interesting and most important question in
25:10the series that we're on is, which relationship is more valuable to the United States? The relationship with
25:16Ukraine, which has offered 50-50 profit share on trillions of dollars in minerals, and is keeping
25:23Russian aggression in Europe at bay, or the relationship with Russia, which is a nuclear power
25:30and a possible counterweight to China. Today, 72%, and that number has been growing every single month,
25:39say that the relationship with Ukraine is more important than the relationship with Russia,
25:44including 70% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats, and 68% of independents. So the picture seems to
25:53have shifted when it comes to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Will this last? Will Trump stay in the
26:01course? Who knows? But this is one of the few areas where there is unanimous consensus amongst voters,
26:09whether they're Republicans, Democrats, or independents, that the United States must stand
26:14with Ukraine, and that Ukraine is the friend of the United States in this diet between Ukraine
26:21and Russia and within this conflict. So a very interesting picture. And through his recent actions,
26:28Trump has actually given voters exactly what they're asking for.
26:31And I think this poll paints a very interesting picture of where voters are, where their sentiment
26:38is six months into President Trump's second term. We will end it there. Dritan Nesho,
26:43thank you so much for joining me. I appreciate you breaking down these numbers and providing
26:48your insights here. I hope to have another conversation soon.
26:52Dritan Nesho, Thank you.
Recommended
1:13:34
|
Up next
13:31
1:22:34
1:40:51