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00:00We start things out with Liam in the dust.
00:03This one is multiple graded stakes placed.
00:05Actually finished second, though, last time at Keeneland in a race on a sloppy track.
00:09So a positive.
00:10We know that she can run on a sloppy track and run okay.
00:13She finished second there, but she did finish behind Paris Lily.
00:16So she's going to have to improve on that rival and try to turn the tables on her.
00:21Yeah, you know, she's a horse that looks like she can run really well at high levels,
00:26like you're saying, is placed.
00:27Um, it got second in the Pocahontas and then third in the demo cell and the only horse
00:32who to have tried this distance a mile and an eighth, um, in the demo cell, which was her
00:37fastest performance.
00:38But like you said, she's lost to a couple of common opponents.
00:43Um, I thought, you know, this race was really difficult.
00:46I thought I could have made a case for almost every horse in here.
00:50They're not separated by a whole lot, right?
00:51The top to the bottom.
00:52There's just not a lot in between all of them.
00:54Yeah.
00:54And there's likely going to be a pace tool in here.
00:56Um, so for me, I'm passing on leaving the dust, but again, you can make a case for everybody
01:01right next door.
01:02The number two princess Leah wonder if they'll try to get her more towards the front early
01:08because she never got really involved in her last race in the eight bells, uh, on May the
01:13second.
01:14Um, but if you look at some of her better races, it's when she's been able to be pretty close
01:19early on.
01:20Uh, and if you're looking at like some of the speed figures that the daily racing form
01:24uses, like the buyers and some of those, she has actually some of the better ones to Alexa.
01:29So what do you think of her princess Leah?
01:31I, my concern for her mainly is distance times that she's tried a mile in a 16th, which is
01:37a little bit shorter than today.
01:39She tired.
01:40I think it looks like a mile is kind of more her comfortable distance.
01:44The class is also a little bit tough for her.
01:46She, like you said, can run really fast numbers and races, but it was a little bit inconsistent.
01:51And the two times that she's tried grade two company, she kind of flopped.
01:55So for me, this looks like a pretty tough play scene.
01:58The number three is named Margie's intention.
02:00I think she's just a really good fit in this race.
02:03Her form overall has been good.
02:05She's won two of her five starts.
02:06She's finished second in two other races.
02:08And both times when she ran second, she finished behind a horse named blue fire.
02:13You actually see blue fire in the running lines against princess Aaliyah blue fire was second
02:18in a race called the eight bells.
02:20It's a really prestigious race that's run on Kentucky Oaks day.
02:24I just think Margie's intention is going to get a really good trip.
02:27Like I liked everything about her.
02:28And then she's coming into the trainer, Brad Cox barn for the first time, who's so good
02:33with moves just like this, right?
02:35Alexa, I think you had a stat about how good Brad Cox was.
02:38Yeah.
02:39When he has a horse going for the first out, the first time they're in their Barney wins
02:4341% of the time.
02:45So we talk about trainer percent win percentages a lot, and I think it's good to put that in
02:50context.
02:50So really anything over 20% is really pretty good.
02:54And the best of the best could get closer to 30% win rates when they're really on fire.
02:59And then that's just overall.
03:00And then we have these kind of like win percent angles for, you know, when they're doing something,
03:06maybe they're adding equipment, adding blinkers for the first time, or the first time a horse
03:09is entering their barn, like this case.
03:12And, and this is 41%.
03:14And it's also with a sample size of 69 horses.
03:17So it is statistically significant.
03:19So if you see like a three for 10, sometimes you're like, okay, that's not the biggest sample
03:22size.
03:23So 30%, but when you see almost 40 and you're hitting at 40%, and when you wonder what the
03:29ROI is, that's the return on your investment in horse racing, you have a $2 bet.
03:33So anything over $2 means you're churning a profit.
03:37And that is just a phenomenal number.
03:39If every time he takes a horse in his barn and moves to a dirt route, they've win at 41%,
03:46incredible number, 275 ROI.
03:49Kind of, uh, I'll give away some of the goodies here, Alexa.
03:53I just think she's going to sit a great trip.
03:54I made her my top pick in here.
03:56Same.
03:57Yep.
03:57We both like Margie right next door running and gunning is a stakes winner.
04:01She's great to placed.
04:03She was in a good race last time out in the fantasy, but I'm not, she was well defeated
04:08in that race when she finished third.
04:10So I don't know how well she really ran.
04:12I'm kind of, I'm a little cold on her in this spot.
04:14What do you think about running and gunning?
04:16So she was well defeated, but the horses that defeated her were quiet side and simply joking
04:20who came back to run in the Kentucky Oaks.
04:22I mean, they didn't impress that much in the Kentucky Oaks, but it was the Kentucky Oaks.
04:26Um, her speed figures are improving and peaking.
04:28She gets Flavian Pratt aboard.
04:30Um, uh, I'm sorry.
04:31Flavian Pratt rode her last out, did is not aboard his riding for Margie's intention.
04:35So that is a negative.
04:37Um, but I think she's classy.
04:39I actually think she's live in here.
04:40Do you know I have her as my second pick?
04:42The number five Kinsey Queen, she's kind of a deeper closer.
04:46I wonder if she will get the setup or even if she does, does she get the smooth trip that
04:50she needs?
04:51I will say she's coming off of some pretty decent efforts.
04:54That last race was very good at Oaklawn Park.
04:56What do you think about Kinsey Queen?
04:58Okay.
04:58So Kinsey Queen is very interesting.
05:01This horse is peaking.
05:02Um, but when has faced better horses has, has caved, right?
05:07But this last performance that you're looking at went five wide is very eye patching.
05:12This was awesome race.
05:13Awesome race.
05:14So like, if you're just going off of that, a hundred percent, I could see you playing
05:17her, but they've run this horse four times in the last like month and a half.
05:22They ran her three times in March.
05:23It seems like a lot to me.
05:25Plus shipping out here, um, running and gunning beater two, two back in the fantasy.
05:32Um, I don't know.
05:33So, so I struggled cause it's a great price at 10 to one or plus a thousand, but I don't
05:40know how much stock to put in that one.
05:41Really, really great performance.
05:43Paris Lily is a most recent winner.
05:46She defeated Liam in the dust and she might be one of the quicker horses early in here.
05:50Yeah.
05:51And she won in the slop last out, which is with a big improvement and it's going to
05:55rain today.
05:56Um, so, and that's a big thing, right?
05:58Like major positive.
06:00Yeah.
06:01Major positive.
06:01So, you know, I think she's kind of coming into her own.
06:04I don't want to leave her out, especially with the sloppy weather.
06:07I think she's a player.
06:09Number seven reply won her debut.
06:11And then in her second start, she finished a really good second.
06:14I don't have any knocks on those races.
06:16She's just going to have to step up a little bit.
06:18And because of her running style, she needs a little bit of help.
06:21That's what happened here.
06:22She was way out of it.
06:23And then she kind of, she makes up a lot of ground late.
06:26Yeah.
06:26She's a closer, um, which I think would be a plus in this field with the amount of speed
06:31in here, but then possibly a risk with the sloppy track.
06:35She might not like it.
06:36I don't think she's run on that surface before.
06:38She does have Brittany Russell's, her trainer is winning 30% of the time.
06:42She gets Irad Ortiz aboard.
06:43He's one of the best jockeys.
06:44This is a class test in a salty field, but I like her.
06:48Amarth ran really, really well in the busher going a mile.
06:52And then in the Ashland last time, she just faced a really tough group.
06:55I mean, if you look at the top four finishers in there, if any one of those horses were in
06:59this race, they'd be favored.
07:01Yeah.
07:02Yeah.
07:02No, absolutely.
07:02That was a very tough race.
07:04I, again, could make a case for any horse in here.
07:06I ended up leaving her out, um, but could definitely, I know you like her a lot.
07:10I'm like, this is a tough race.
07:13Yeah.
07:13I have her in the second spot and we round things out with moon cash who came off of a
07:18third place finish.
07:19She was behind reply.
07:20I, I don't have many knocks on her overall, Alexa.
07:23I just like other horses in here more.
07:25Yeah.
07:25This is a local Maryland bred horse.
07:27Who's run exclusively at Laurel park.
07:29I really understand from an owner perspective, putting her in here, she's probably eligible
07:34for some bonuses being a Maryland bred.
07:36Um, and even if she just places in a stakes like this, her value as a regional broodmare
07:42goes through the roof.
07:43So I think there's a lot of sense putting in here, but I think it's a tough spot.
07:46And then I'll be looking forward to it.
07:49So, uh, uh, uh, what are you talking about?
07:52Um, and I think we're looking forward to it.
07:53And I think.
07:54Yeah.
07:55Yeah.
07:55Yeah.
07:56Yeah.
07:56Yeah.
07:56Uh, I think, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh.