Liam in the Dust: Analyzing Top Horse Racing Picks

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00:00We start things out with Liam in the dust.

00:03This one is multiple graded stakes placed.

00:05Actually finished second, though, last time at Keeneland in a race on a sloppy track.

00:09So a positive.

00:10We know that she can run on a sloppy track and run okay.

00:13She finished second there, but she did finish behind Paris Lily.

00:16So she's going to have to improve on that rival and try to turn the tables on her.

00:21Yeah, you know, she's a horse that looks like she can run really well at high levels,

00:26like you're saying, is placed.

00:27Um, it got second in the Pocahontas and then third in the demo cell and the only horse

00:32who to have tried this distance a mile and an eighth, um, in the demo cell, which was her

00:37fastest performance.

00:38But like you said, she's lost to a couple of common opponents.

00:43Um, I thought, you know, this race was really difficult.

00:46I thought I could have made a case for almost every horse in here.

00:50They're not separated by a whole lot, right?

00:51The top to the bottom.

00:52There's just not a lot in between all of them.

00:54Yeah.

00:54And there's likely going to be a pace tool in here.

00:56Um, so for me, I'm passing on leaving the dust, but again, you can make a case for everybody

01:01right next door.

01:02The number two princess Leah wonder if they'll try to get her more towards the front early

01:08because she never got really involved in her last race in the eight bells, uh, on May the

01:13second.

01:14Um, but if you look at some of her better races, it's when she's been able to be pretty close

01:19early on.

01:20Uh, and if you're looking at like some of the speed figures that the daily racing form

01:24uses, like the buyers and some of those, she has actually some of the better ones to Alexa.

01:29So what do you think of her princess Leah?

01:31I, my concern for her mainly is distance times that she's tried a mile in a 16th, which is

01:37a little bit shorter than today.

01:39She tired.

01:40I think it looks like a mile is kind of more her comfortable distance.

01:44The class is also a little bit tough for her.

01:46She, like you said, can run really fast numbers and races, but it was a little bit inconsistent.

01:51And the two times that she's tried grade two company, she kind of flopped.

01:55So for me, this looks like a pretty tough play scene.

01:58The number three is named Margie's intention.

02:00I think she's just a really good fit in this race.

02:03Her form overall has been good.

02:05She's won two of her five starts.

02:06She's finished second in two other races.

02:08And both times when she ran second, she finished behind a horse named blue fire.

02:13You actually see blue fire in the running lines against princess Aaliyah blue fire was second

02:18in a race called the eight bells.

02:20It's a really prestigious race that's run on Kentucky Oaks day.

02:24I just think Margie's intention is going to get a really good trip.

02:27Like I liked everything about her.

02:28And then she's coming into the trainer, Brad Cox barn for the first time, who's so good

02:33with moves just like this, right?

02:35Alexa, I think you had a stat about how good Brad Cox was.

02:38Yeah.

02:39When he has a horse going for the first out, the first time they're in their Barney wins

02:4341% of the time.

02:45So we talk about trainer percent win percentages a lot, and I think it's good to put that in

02:50context.

02:50So really anything over 20% is really pretty good.

02:54And the best of the best could get closer to 30% win rates when they're really on fire.

02:59And then that's just overall.

03:00And then we have these kind of like win percent angles for, you know, when they're doing something,

03:06maybe they're adding equipment, adding blinkers for the first time, or the first time a horse

03:09is entering their barn, like this case.

03:12And, and this is 41%.

03:14And it's also with a sample size of 69 horses.

03:17So it is statistically significant.

03:19So if you see like a three for 10, sometimes you're like, okay, that's not the biggest sample

03:22size.

03:23So 30%, but when you see almost 40 and you're hitting at 40%, and when you wonder what the

03:29ROI is, that's the return on your investment in horse racing, you have a $2 bet.

03:33So anything over $2 means you're churning a profit.

03:37And that is just a phenomenal number.

03:39If every time he takes a horse in his barn and moves to a dirt route, they've win at 41%,

03:46incredible number, 275 ROI.

03:49Kind of, uh, I'll give away some of the goodies here, Alexa.

03:53I just think she's going to sit a great trip.

03:54I made her my top pick in here.

03:56Same.

03:57Yep.

03:57We both like Margie right next door running and gunning is a stakes winner.

04:01She's great to placed.

04:03She was in a good race last time out in the fantasy, but I'm not, she was well defeated

04:08in that race when she finished third.

04:10So I don't know how well she really ran.

04:12I'm kind of, I'm a little cold on her in this spot.

04:14What do you think about running and gunning?

04:16So she was well defeated, but the horses that defeated her were quiet side and simply joking

04:20who came back to run in the Kentucky Oaks.

04:22I mean, they didn't impress that much in the Kentucky Oaks, but it was the Kentucky Oaks.

04:26Um, her speed figures are improving and peaking.

04:28She gets Flavian Pratt aboard.

04:30Um, uh, I'm sorry.

04:31Flavian Pratt rode her last out, did is not aboard his riding for Margie's intention.

04:35So that is a negative.

04:37Um, but I think she's classy.

04:39I actually think she's live in here.

04:40Do you know I have her as my second pick?

04:42The number five Kinsey Queen, she's kind of a deeper closer.

04:46I wonder if she will get the setup or even if she does, does she get the smooth trip that

04:50she needs?

04:51I will say she's coming off of some pretty decent efforts.

04:54That last race was very good at Oaklawn Park.

04:56What do you think about Kinsey Queen?

04:58Okay.

04:58So Kinsey Queen is very interesting.

05:01This horse is peaking.

05:02Um, but when has faced better horses has, has caved, right?

05:07But this last performance that you're looking at went five wide is very eye patching.

05:12This was awesome race.

05:13Awesome race.

05:14So like, if you're just going off of that, a hundred percent, I could see you playing

05:17her, but they've run this horse four times in the last like month and a half.

05:22They ran her three times in March.

05:23It seems like a lot to me.

05:25Plus shipping out here, um, running and gunning beater two, two back in the fantasy.

05:32Um, I don't know.

05:33So, so I struggled cause it's a great price at 10 to one or plus a thousand, but I don't

05:40know how much stock to put in that one.

05:41Really, really great performance.

05:43Paris Lily is a most recent winner.

05:46She defeated Liam in the dust and she might be one of the quicker horses early in here.

05:50Yeah.

05:51And she won in the slop last out, which is with a big improvement and it's going to

05:55rain today.

05:56Um, so, and that's a big thing, right?

05:58Like major positive.

06:00Yeah.

06:01Major positive.

06:01So, you know, I think she's kind of coming into her own.

06:04I don't want to leave her out, especially with the sloppy weather.

06:07I think she's a player.

06:09Number seven reply won her debut.

06:11And then in her second start, she finished a really good second.

06:14I don't have any knocks on those races.

06:16She's just going to have to step up a little bit.

06:18And because of her running style, she needs a little bit of help.

06:21That's what happened here.

06:22She was way out of it.

06:23And then she kind of, she makes up a lot of ground late.

06:26Yeah.

06:26She's a closer, um, which I think would be a plus in this field with the amount of speed

06:31in here, but then possibly a risk with the sloppy track.

06:35She might not like it.

06:36I don't think she's run on that surface before.

06:38She does have Brittany Russell's, her trainer is winning 30% of the time.

06:42She gets Irad Ortiz aboard.

06:43He's one of the best jockeys.

06:44This is a class test in a salty field, but I like her.

06:48Amarth ran really, really well in the busher going a mile.

06:52And then in the Ashland last time, she just faced a really tough group.

06:55I mean, if you look at the top four finishers in there, if any one of those horses were in

06:59this race, they'd be favored.

07:01Yeah.

07:02Yeah.

07:02No, absolutely.

07:02That was a very tough race.

07:04I, again, could make a case for any horse in here.

07:06I ended up leaving her out, um, but could definitely, I know you like her a lot.

07:10I'm like, this is a tough race.

07:13Yeah.

07:13I have her in the second spot and we round things out with moon cash who came off of a

07:18third place finish.

07:19She was behind reply.

07:20I, I don't have many knocks on her overall, Alexa.

07:23I just like other horses in here more.

07:25Yeah.

07:25This is a local Maryland bred horse.

07:27Who's run exclusively at Laurel park.

07:29I really understand from an owner perspective, putting her in here, she's probably eligible

07:34for some bonuses being a Maryland bred.

07:36Um, and even if she just places in a stakes like this, her value as a regional broodmare

07:42goes through the roof.

07:43So I think there's a lot of sense putting in here, but I think it's a tough spot.

07:46And then I'll be looking forward to it.

07:49So, uh, uh, uh, what are you talking about?

07:52Um, and I think we're looking forward to it.

07:53And I think.

07:54Yeah.

07:55Yeah.

07:56Yeah.

07:56Uh, I think, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh.

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