Sophomore Slump or Success for Jackson Merrill in 2025?

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00:00At 27, sits Ronald Acuna.

00:03Maybe you've heard of him.

00:04At 29, sits Jackson Merrill.

00:07Sophomore slump.

00:08Joe, the floor is yours.

00:10Well, Jackson Merrill could have a sophomore slump.

00:13He is just 21 years old.

00:15An incredible year last year.

00:17I have to credit my co-host at Fancy Rose MLB,

00:20The Welsh, who was at a lot of these

00:22spring training games last year.

00:24He's a big prospect guru guy.

00:25He hosts a prospect show, a podcast.

00:28And he told me the last year, he's like,

00:29hey, Jackson Merrill, he could be rookie of the year.

00:31And I was like, who?

00:32What are you talking about?

00:33And he's like, just watch Jackson Merrill.

00:35Well, 156 games, 24 homers, 90 RBI, 16 steals, 292.

00:40It's a pretty good season for Jackson Merrill.

00:42A lot of people are saying, okay, now can he repeat it?

00:44And I think that's the concern people have.

00:46And then you have Ronald Acuna

00:47basically going right next to him.

00:49Now, we all know what Ronald Acuna is.

00:52At his height, he's a 40-70 guy.

00:54The interesting thing is,

00:55the conversation we've had before,

00:57in fact, George Kurtz and I were arguing

00:58about it last week, which was George saying

01:00he was concerned they wouldn't come back and run.

01:02And I said, well, that's not what happened last time

01:04he came back from an ACL.

01:05Last time, it was the power that slumped.

01:07He had only 15 home runs, but he had 30 steals

01:10in 119 games or 112 games, whatever it was.

01:14And that was before the rules changes.

01:16So there was no problem with Ronald Acuna stealing bases

01:18when he returned from an ACL.

01:20Now he's got two remade ACLs.

01:22I'm not worried about it.

01:23What hurts you with Ronald Acuna is head-to-head leagues

01:26where the first six weeks of the season,

01:28if it's a deep league, a 14-15 team league,

01:32the replacement value's hard.

01:33If you're in a 10-team league,

01:34I'll take Ronald Acuna all day over Jackson-Merrill.

01:37I will find a way to patch together a couple weeks.

01:39Injuries could happen to Jackson-Merrill

01:41and he could miss a month of the season, for all I know.

01:43As long as I have a plan and I'm a savvy drafter,

01:46I know that I can take somebody

01:48to fill that void of Acuna for a month.

01:50The waiver wire in April is always bountiful.

01:53We always get these guys that kind of come out of nowhere

01:55and have good months of April, never to be heard from again.

01:58I can find some offense there.

02:00I can't find somebody with 40-70 sort of skillset.

02:03And again, is he gonna miss the first month,

02:05maybe two of the season?

02:07That's where it gets a little dicey in the deeper leagues.

02:09So 12-team leagues, depends on your risk tolerance.

02:13Jackson-Merrill's safer in a 14-15 team league scenario.

02:18That's my breakdown of these two.

02:19Who would you rather have, Acuna or Jackson-Merrill?

02:23Let me bring some sobriety to this thing,

02:25and that's a great word to use with this crew.

02:28Ronald Acuna is better than anyone you or I know.

02:34Ronald Acuna, with two repaired ACLs,

02:37I don't care if it's dental floss and bubble gum,

02:40is still better than anyone you or I know.

02:43And I don't understand this in the fantasy community,

02:46in the wagering community.

02:48Dude, it's Ronald Acuna.

02:50Earlier, we did a segment,

02:51I was Pablo Lopez under it.

02:53He's still really, I understand he's not Mike Trout,

02:55and that that bloom is way off the rose,

02:57but this is still Ronald Acuna.

02:59Why do we forget about how great this player is?

03:02And come July and August, when it really matters,

03:05we're gonna go, oh yeah, Ronald Acuna.

03:07I want him on my team, even if I have to sit and wait.

03:11And here's the interesting thing, though,

03:12about these ADP wars here,

03:13is that when you're looking at 27, 28, 29, 31, 33, 35, 36,

03:20you have some choices to make,

03:21because when you come back on the turn,

03:22depending on where you are,

03:24a lot of these players aren't gonna be here.

03:25Let's go to third base now.

03:27We'll stay with Atlanta and San Diego, actually.

03:29Austin Riley at 31, Manny Machado at 33.

03:33Now, I prefer the offensive ecosystem of Austin Riley,

03:36based off of what I just said,

03:37the potential of what Acuna means.

03:40Joe, where do you land?

03:43Yeah, this is an interesting one,

03:44because Austin Riley was coming off

03:46some monstrous seasons, right?

03:47You look at 2022, 38 homers, 93 RBI,

03:5123, 37 homers, 97 RBI.

03:53And then last year, awful start,

03:55then he finally got going, and then he got hurt.

03:57So I think collectively, Atlanta just was,

04:00you know, at times just stuck in the mud, right?

04:02Matt Olsen struggled at times, Ozzy Alves was hurt,

04:05Ronald Acuna only played 40-something games.

04:08So I feel like Atlanta just never got out of its own way.

04:11Just so many injuries, so many issues.

04:13So as long as everything's going

04:14in the right direction for Atlanta,

04:16I tend to agree with you,

04:17because I think the upside for Austin Riley

04:19is a little bit higher.

04:21But I will say this,

04:23even though you might be giving up

04:24five or six potential home runs with,

04:27you know, taking Manny Machado,

04:29I think the floor of Manny Machado is a little bit safer,

04:32if you are concerned about what was going on wrong

04:35with Austin Riley last year,

04:36because it was just wrong.

04:37And Manny Machado is just Manny Machado every single year.

04:40You're going to set your watch to 3,100.

04:43That's going to be where it is.

04:44And I think it's a lot closer

04:47than some other people might think.

04:49Well, I mean, they are close in ADP,

04:51but still, it's clear that most people

04:53just prefer Austin Riley.

04:55But I think it's a little bit more of a conversation.

04:57Matt, I'm curious,

04:58like, you want just the steady Eddie of Manny Machado

05:00or the slight upside of Austin Riley,

05:03but the slight downside of the player you saw last year,

05:05which was not good for most of the team.

05:09So I'll admit here

05:10that when I'm playing season-long fantasy,

05:12a lot of times I want to be excited about the team.

05:14I want to be in on the team.

05:16Now, I like the Padres,

05:17but from a different perspective.

05:18I like them from pitching.

05:19I like them from bullpen.

05:20I really don't like a lot of their bats.

05:22So I'm not excited about it.

05:23I need to be excited about it.

05:24So that's why I like Austin Riley,

05:26because I just like the team around him.

05:27I mean, my gosh.

05:28Yeah, you can make the case for what's around Machado,

05:30but when you look around what's healthy and around Riley,

05:34I like his offensive ecosystem far better.

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