Ryan Pepiot's Ascendancy in MLB: Analysts' Insight

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00:00Yeah.

00:01Look, I want to talk about Ryan Pepio because this was the player that, you know, Sarris

00:04could not stop talking about.

00:05And when, you know, Sarris is in on a pitcher and we know how great of an analyst he is

00:10and then Pollock's in on a pitcher, I start to perk up and say, okay, let me, let me dive

00:14in again to Ryan Pepio.

00:16And when I was writing up the black book this year and doing all the pitcher write-ups,

00:20Pepio was another guy that did pop for me too.

00:22And I think that when you look at his body of work last year, 26 games, 130 innings,

00:28142 strikeouts, just 48 walks, he's got a three to one strikeout to walk rate.

00:34That's going to lead to success at the major league level.

00:36You don't want to walk guys.

00:37It's one of the problems that, you know, Hunter Green had early in his career too, right?

00:40Sometimes the control wasn't there.

00:42Control is very important.

00:43Those guys that have two to one or even three to one strikeout to walk ratios.

00:47Those are the guys that are going to have success because they're not going to put runners

00:50on.

00:51They're not going to put themselves in bad situations more often than not.

00:54And I think if you're looking for the silver lining here with this potential, again, six

00:58man rotation that we're looking at is everything becomes little league in the major leagues

01:02here that Ryan Pepio probably is set up to be one of the more durable guys.

01:08I think in this rotation, we don't know what Shane Boss is going to be able to give us.

01:13I know they've been teasing Rasmussen there too.

01:15The problem with Zach Littell is that he is out of options.

01:18So there's a good chance that he does at least start the year in this rotation.

01:22So Pepio might be a little bit of a patience will be rewarded scenario too.

01:27You draft him.

01:28If he only makes three starts in April, don't get frustrated.

01:31And if you didn't draft him, go buy him.

01:32But right now you're getting him at such an incredible discount.

01:35He's the 176th player in consensus ADP on fantasy pros.

01:40That's a tremendous value for a guy who could be pitching on an improved team, the three

01:44to one strikeout to walk rate, a solid ERA, a solid whip.

01:48Ryan Pepio could be a really good number four or five starter for you at an incredible

01:52return on investment.

01:53All right.

01:54I'm loving it.

01:55We're cooking with Joey P. Joe P. Zappia, the author of the fantasy black book, talking

01:59late rounds, starting pitching.

02:01Let's go back to Houston, Joe.

02:02We talk about all the time.

02:04A team needs three good starters to really go deep.

02:07I think the Astros have it in Valdez, Brown, and this next guy.

02:13Yes.

02:14Spencer Arreguetti, another guy we did a huge deep dive on a couple of weeks ago, and we

02:18saw what it was in the first few starts and what it was in the second half of the season,

02:23how good he was.

02:24And the splits were vastly different.

02:27And that's what I keep coming back to as well when I'm evaluating Spencer Arreguetti, also

02:31going in that similar range, right?

02:33Like he is just a guy going at 188 overall.

02:37And Spencer Arreguetti, I think, is not going to be a household name necessarily, but he's

02:42going to be a guy that could potentially give you, I think, a lot of innings this year.

02:47So quality innings at that.

02:49He has the upside and the strikeout potential you're looking for as well.

02:53171 strikeouts in just 141 innings.

02:56That's something that really should pique your interest.

02:59And right now, I think, you know, spring training, you don't worry too much about what you're

03:04seeing, what you're not.

03:05All you want is health out of him.

03:06He's developing a two-seam fastball this spring, too.

03:09So that's something he's working on.

03:10So if you see him get lit up a little bit, sometimes these guys are just working on stuff,

03:14right?

03:15They don't really care what results are.

03:16They just care about, I'm getting used to throwing this in at bats.

03:19I'm getting used to how it feels in-game as opposed to in bullpen sessions.

03:23So don't get scared off at all about any sort of Spencer Arreguetti stuff in the spring.

03:27The cost is still nothing.

03:28Now, you like to see that ERA get lower.

03:30That I understand, too.

03:32The ERA was at 4.5, the expected ERA was at 4.05.

03:37So a little bit more negotiable, I think, in there.

03:40But so much of this was due to the early bad starts of Spencer Arreguetti, whereas ERA,

03:45which is off-the-charts bad.

03:47So by the time it course-corrected, no matter how good he was in the second half and the

03:51later starts, it was never going to get below 4.

03:54But now he's in a situation where I think he is one of the better-kept secrets in baseball.

03:58All right.

04:00Let's go now and spend the rest of our time in the National League Central, starting with

04:03the Milwaukee Brewers.

04:04And honestly, this is my pick for a team to overachieve.

04:06They have a team that's under 30 everywhere in the lineup.

04:10That pitching staff is going to be fantastic.

04:14Brandon Woodruff is healthy and he's back.

04:15It's going to look like Woodruff, Peralta, Cortez, Savali.

04:19Joe, talk about Brandon Woodruff.

04:21Look, when Brandon Woodruff is healthy, he is a fantasy ace, basically.

04:26That's what he is.

04:27Problem is, he hasn't been healthy in a long time.

04:29But it's not costing you too much to find out because he's going post-200 in ADP in

04:34most leagues.

04:35Right now, Brandon Woodruff is at .224.

04:38That is an incredible value.

04:40Once again, if it doesn't work out and he's hurt again or some issues happen, you cut

04:44him.

04:45Now, he might not start on time.

04:47He's still working his way back.

04:49And I think it's smart that the Brewers are taking their time.

04:51It's a long season.

04:52The Brewers were in the playoffs last year.

04:54And they plan on being competitive again this year.

04:57So they're playing the long game with Brandon Woodruff, which should also be good, I think,

05:00for your long-term fantasy investment in him.

05:02But post-200, what do you have to lose?

05:05Because the upside is a number one or two starting pitcher.

05:08And those guys don't grow on trees post-200.

05:11Another guy, Nikola Dolo.

05:13We talked a lot about Hunter Green, but Nikola Dolo, a left-handed pitcher, sometimes those

05:17lefties take a little longer in the pressure cooker.

05:19He's having a great spring, eight and two-thirds innings, nine strikeouts so far.

05:23Keep an eye on Nikola Dolo because this guy, if he's right, could be that number two starter

05:28in that Reds rotation that really puts them over the top.

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