Exploring Bailey Ober's Potential and AL Central Value

SportsGrid

Watch Exploring Bailey Ober's Potential and AL Central Value - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00Joe, let's go to Minnesota first.

00:02This is a team that always I feel is ignored.

00:04The entire AL Central is ignored

00:06and we'll get in deeper later on, but it's a great store.

00:09It really is.

00:10You can go shop at the expensive stores.

00:12I'm going to the AL Central, man.

00:13What do you want to do?

00:15Yeah, well, it's a lot cheaper to go.

00:17It's like Marshall's, right?

00:18You know, you can find some stuff for school there.

00:21You know, you can find a couple of things there.

00:23Maybe not the best, but you can find a couple of things.

00:25The necessities, right?

00:26That's what Matt's mom would take you for.

00:29Last year, Bayley-Ober threw 178 innings.

00:34You look at the ERA, it was close to 4.

00:36It was 3.98.

00:37But the XERA was 3.22, and that is

00:41what I find most encouraging about Bayley-Ober.

00:43When you start to peel back the layers a little bit

00:46of this onion, the 8.3% battle rate

00:50looks like he could get hit a little bit hard.

00:53But at the same time, a lot of the deeper metrics

00:55still really point to Bayley-Ober being successful.

00:58And the thing I like the most is that strikeout rate.

01:00191 strikeouts in just 178 innings,

01:03and the innings total, the fact that he crossed that 175 mark.

01:06So this is a guy that you're ready to make an investment in

01:09that I think has number two starter potential,

01:11but he's being drafted more like a three or a four,

01:13depending on the depth of your league.

01:15That kind of return on investment is very important.

01:17And Bayley-Ober, I think, suggests

01:19all of that sort of value.

01:20If you look overall where Bayley-Ober is being drafted,

01:23he is going somewhere around the 90th player overall.

01:27Just to give you some names around there,

01:28Cal Raleigh, okay, catcher with power, that's fine.

01:32Mike Trout, interesting, but again,

01:35what's that investment look like?

01:37Alex Bregman, who is a good player at this stage,

01:40but if you're looking to make up some pitching ground,

01:42again, this is why I like taking offense early.

01:45So I'm not relying on Mike Trout or Alex Bregman

01:47to carry my offense.

01:49But I think I feel okay about Bayley-Ober

01:51trying to be a number three starter in my rotation.

01:53And that is a decision that I've already made

01:55this offseason and in most of my drafts

01:57and my upcoming drafts and looking at Bayley-Ober

02:00as a guy that can be, not just be a contributor anymore,

02:03but really give you the strikeouts.

02:05And as you were saying, if this Twins team

02:06can actually stay healthy for a change, right?

02:08You actually get full seasons, dare I say,

02:11from guys like Buxton and Correa,

02:12or at least maybe a hundred plus games

02:14from both of those guys,

02:16then all of a sudden the Twins team is a pretty good one.

02:18So I would be looking at Bayley-Ober's investment this year.

02:20I like the ADP and I like what I saw last year.

02:23I think the numbers don't really give you a full picture

02:25of how good he could be in 2025.

02:29Yep, for those that are new to this

02:30or maybe they're struggling

02:31or sometimes just looking for a new metric,

02:33something I like to use when it comes

02:35to this kind of tier of pitchers, I look at three things.

02:37Joe talks about offensive ecosystem in his book.

02:40So I'm gonna look at the offense of the team.

02:42I'm gonna look at the bullpen of the team

02:43as it relates to a starter pitcher,

02:45especially if I'm gonna try to get myself some wins.

02:47And look at the walk rate of the pitcher.

02:49Joe and I talk about it often,

02:50looking at pitchers and looking at hitters.

02:51You can look at the walk rate

02:53and really tell a lot about a player.

02:55So if Bayley-Ober checks all these boxes for you,

02:58it's not a one, but if he checks all these boxes for you

03:00for that mid rotation, and like we said,

03:02if the Twins excel, this is gonna be fun.

03:05All the names on this list are gonna be fun.

03:06Let's go down away from the American League Central.

03:08Let's go to the National League Central,

03:10a team I'm excited about.

03:11There's questions about the pitching,

03:13but I think it all comes together with the coach.

03:14I think Terry Francona being in Cincinnati

03:16changes absolutely everything.

03:18Hunter Green is a guy.

03:21Yeah, we've waited a couple of years for Hunter Green,

03:23and I think this is it.

03:24I think he's ready.

03:25He showed you last year

03:26that he really took a giant step forward.

03:29So I wanna call it the full breakout

03:30because it wasn't over a full season, it was 150 innings,

03:33but he gave you 169 strikeouts, a 275 ERA, a 1.02 whip.

03:37So can he take that and do it over 30 plus starts

03:40as opposed to 25 starts?

03:41And I think the answer is yes.

03:42Strikeout rate is off the chart for him.

03:45You're already seeing in spring too,

03:4712.4 strikeout per nine right now,

03:5016 innings, 22 strikeouts,

03:51but the key for him, just five walks.

03:53He's also cut down on that home run rate.

03:54That was the big thing

03:55that was always a problem for Hunter Green.

03:57You know, you can throw a hundred miles an hour

03:58in the big leagues, but guys are gonna hit it, right?

04:01Yeah, if you're throwing it right down the pipe,

04:02that's a problem.

04:03So learning that pitch mix,

04:05excuse me, as we talked about earlier,

04:08learning, you know, how to find the outs and lineups,

04:11how to pitch around certain guys, how to attack others.

04:14Hunter Green is starting to understand

04:16what it takes to be a big league pitcher.

04:18And if you miss out on Cole Reagans, right, at pick 40,

04:22right around pick 90 in the same area,

04:24right around 92 is where he's going,

04:26very close to Bailey Ober,

04:28he has big time strikeout potential too.

04:30And he could give you as many as Cole Reagans,

04:33maybe as many as Paul Skeens too, I'm just saying,

04:36but he is going far later in drafts.

04:38Now, does he have the consistency yet?

04:41No, but I think last year was a huge step

04:44in the right direction.

04:46Spring training doesn't mean too much,

04:47except for the guys it means everything for.

04:49And Hunter Green is a guy that right now is showing you

04:53all the good work that he put in at the end of last year

04:55is carrying over into the beginning of this season.

04:57And that is very encouraging.

04:59And I think you're right.

05:00Terry Francona, I think makes a huge difference

05:02in terms of the knowledge he brings to this game

05:05and hopefully his new staff as well.

05:07I think that's gonna be really important,

05:08that veteran leadership to a very young team.

05:11And Hunter Green, I think is a player

05:13that could be an enormous breakout in 2025.

Category

Transcript

Recommended