💸EL DÓLAR BLUE SUBIÓ A 1.205: "AL GOBIERNO LE PREOCUPA MÁS BAJAR LA BRECHA QUE TENER RESERVAS"

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"El programa económico de este gobierno está teniendo algunas dificultades a esta altura del partido", señaló el economista Pablo Goldin.

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00:00for what to worry about, let me answer you with this little story, if you three or four months ago

00:07you left Argentina with the dollar at 1,400 and the official the official dollar at around 1,000 and you

00:15came back last week and you ask someone what news there was for the rector, he will say, look,

00:20the real is above 6, as you said, the Chilean peso is meroding the thousand pesos, which is something

00:27almost worse than the real going up above 6, the SOE is at 350, the retentions in Argentina

00:34are still the same as always, the SOE at 33%, you have to pay 18 billion dollars next year

00:41of public debt, external, according to the fund, for now there is no concrete news, the

00:47reserves in the central bank are still zero or negative, the central bank continued to lower

00:53interest rates in these months two or three times in a row, then you tell him, well, stop, stop, the

00:59dollar went up with all this, the dollar went up, no, no, until a week ago the dollar was almost looking for

01:06the thousand pesos, as you said, it cannot be, not only that, the central bank says that it will devalue

01:11less and less within two or three months instead of devaluing 2% per month, the official dollar says

01:17that it will devalue only 1% per month, so what do I mean by this, that the dollar is

01:23today going to 1,200, as it makes it noticeable that the economic program at this point in the

01:31party is having some challenges or some internal and external issues that make it

01:38more uncomfortable than before, then it is not that the tourism of seasonality is not only the

01:45issue of Brazil, that is, there are particular issues but they are happening almost simultaneously,

01:52so always the economic programs in Argentina that are anchored in the dollar to lower

01:58inflation, we have had millions of stories in that sense, when things get a little complicated

02:04and well, it gets tense, it gets tense, then the question is worrisome, the question is and the dollar

02:10to 1,200 pesos, the same dollar that was in October last year and in the middle there was 170%

02:15inflation, that is, what increased the least in Argentina was the dollar, it increased nothing, it did not increase

02:21anything and there was 170% inflation, the question is why does the central bank go out to sell dollars

02:28with securities to lower the financier when the financier is at 1,150, 1,160, the government is

02:37worried, it wants to have a very low dollar, I think that this is a government that is more concerned

02:46about having the gap to change and lower than to have reserves in the central bank, it is clear, it

02:52loses 100 million today or 150 million to have the gap contained or the

02:59alternative dollars contained knowing that it does not have reserves in the central bank, then it is clear,

03:05clear, clear, this is a government that in its logic is to have the gap very low, more than

03:13having reserves in the central bank, because a central bank that does not have and spends the same 100

03:18sticks, no matter how much the minister 12 hours before says no, it is the people who are going to Brazil or

03:24who are buying the dollars to go to Brazil, there is something that does not end up closing, then you have to

03:29see how the central bank says, well, we bought almost 4 billion between October, November and

03:34December, the central bank bought 4 billion, yes, well, what happens is that the central bank has the

03:40need to buy dollars because next year it has to pay a lot of debt in dollars because they are not

03:47going to refinance the 18 billion that it has to pay, put it to refinance half, it has to pay

03:52half, we leave it there now, I'm going to ask you later if the Minister of Economy Luis Caputo has

03:59returned to ratify in the last hours and the president of my law in an interview that

04:02the wall street journal gave that it would be imminent an agreement with the fund that wants to make an agreement

04:08with the fund in the first quarter of 2025, the question is if that clears everything, let's say

04:14if the government wants to have the dollar totally ironed out like this until the agreement with the

04:19fund is reached, look at the announcement of Patricia Bullrich on the voluntary civil service,

04:26voluntary civic service, voluntary, well, which is a move that Patricia Bullrich already implemented

04:34when she was Minister of Security of Mauricio Macri at the end of the government of Mauricio Macri

04:40in 2019 she already implemented it and now she wants to return

04:49and

05:04that is the video that accompanied the Minister of Security to her announcement via post I was with

05:13Sandra Petovello, we are going to get the young people out of the streets and keep them away from crime and

05:20drugs, the famous nini, that is, the young people who do not work or study are many thousands in

05:28Argentina, a great mortgage that Argentina has with respect to the times to come and somehow

05:35what is being tried is courses for four months training for four months remunerated it is not

05:45known yet the amount of remuneration and that of young people between 18 and 24 years old who are

05:51beneficiaries of programs of two social programs that are returning to work and promoting employment

05:58and the courses are not armed they are not military they insist with a lot with a lot of inco in that although

06:10they are done in headquarters of the gendarmerie that is why there is Patricia Bullrich and Sandra Petovello

06:16Petovello what is going to put the trainers from human capital from the secretary of education

06:23of the secretary of social development there are first aid courses there are emergentology courses

06:30there are courses to learn trades to be literate to finish being able to finish with the studies

06:38etc. etc. we will see what is the success in the macri government was the previous experience they

06:47trained four months nothing more little time it seemed 1,200 young people it is not very clear if that

06:55was at least not in the collective social memory as one of the battle horses but

07:02hey they come back about bulrich comes back about that idea and launched it with Minister Petovello in

07:08different parts of the country they are already going to get going in campo de mayo in bariloche in

07:17santiago del estero in jesús maría province of cordoba in rosario and in missions I hope it is

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08:26la humedad se va ahí está lo que decíamos en el wall street journal javier miller ratificando

08:32que quiera un acuerdo una vez asumido trump el 20 de enero con el fondo monetario internacional

08:39no la frase mi ley es que confía en que trump va a colaborar en ese acuerdo está esperando

08:45eso el gobierno está esperando el acuerdo con el fondo de alguna manera para conseguir dólares

08:51adicionales para que el gobierno necesita un acuerdo con el fondo pero tampoco vamos a decir

08:56que es un seguro contra todo riesgo un acuerdo con el fondo ya lo sabemos obviamente que estaba

09:01tanto el fondo como el gobierno estaban esperando que ganara la elección de eeuu ganó trump y

09:08ahora van a tratar de aprovechar en argentina a ver si trump logra que le firmen un cheque más

09:13grande de lo que lo hubiera firmado quizá otro presidente no sabemos hay que acordarse una una

09:20un punto muy importante cuando trump le concedió ese cheque tan grande a macri argentina no le

09:25debía un peso al fondo entonces estaba limpio para recibir un cheque gordo ahora le debe 40

09:31mil millones de dólares entonces por más trump que sea yo creo que no va a ser tan fácil que

09:36venga un cheque que mueva el amperímetro a este programa económico que necesita dólares para

09:41diferentes cosas el fondo no le va a prestar para cualquier cosa en gancho de esto con lo

09:45que está pasando en la economía real hoy se conoció del inde que el tercer trimestre datos

09:51de ocupación y desempleo efectivamente la desocupación se ubicó según los últimos datos

09:59del index ahí podemos verlo en el 6,9 por ciento es un punto 2 arriba del tercer trimestre del

10:102023 ahí ven en la primera columna que es como hay que medir trimestre contra trimestre pero

10:18también es cierto que bueno el peor momento fue el primer trimestre del 2024 cuando la desocupación

10:24se ha habido al 7,7 por ciento en plena caída de rumbo del nivel de actividad y el segundo

10:30trimestre del 2024 de este año cuando la desocupación se mantuvo ahí en el 7,6 por ciento

10:38ahora está en el 6,9 por ciento recuperó un poquito la tasa de empleo ahí viene arriba del

10:45dato de desocupación está la tasa de empleo recuperó respecto al primero y segundo trimestre

10:49del año que fue el peor momento y de alguna manera bueno se pasó una recesión muy profunda

10:56con una suba de la desocupación de un punto que se puede esperar desde el punto de vista del empleo

11:01los salarios la economía real de ahora en adelante o sea fue pasamos una recesión sin perder mucho

11:08empleo y con su vida suba baja del desempleo la sacamos barata en términos de desempleo ahora la

11:13pregunta es el rebote y la reactivación que viene el tipo de rebote y reacción y reactivación que

11:19viene va a ser generadora de empleo y bajadora desempleo esa es la gran pregunta porque argentina

11:25ha tenido muchos rebotes y reactivaciones con dólar bajo apertura económica que a veces son

11:32bastante mediocres en términos de generar empleo entonces la sacamos barata en la recesión hay que

11:38ver si tenemos buen poder de generar empleo en la reactivación

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