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Financialounge
  • 25/10/2024
Trascrizione
00:00Mancano poco meno di due settimane all'appuntamento elettorale statunitense.
00:08Come si stanno preparando i mercati e quali sono le prospettive future con un
00:12nuovo inquilino alla Casa Bianca?
00:14Ne parliamo in questa puntata speciale di Stay Live. Rimanete con noi subito
00:18dopo la sigla.
00:30Ben ritrovati in questa nuova puntata di Stay Live, puntata speciale perché
00:43siamo in Borsa Italiana dove si è appena tenuto l'evento organizzato da
00:46Invesco sulle elezioni presidenziali americane.
00:49Manca ormai pochissimo al voto elettorale. Vedremo oggi come sta
00:54impattando sui mercati e quali sono le prospettive future con un nuovo
00:58inquilino alla Casa Bianca. E ho il piacere di avere qui con noi oggi
01:02proprio una speaker di questo evento, Christina Hooper, Chief Global Market
01:08Strategist di Invesco. Benvenuta a financiallounge.com.
01:11Thank you so much for having me. It's great to be here.
01:14Ecco, partiamo subito da come i mercati si stanno preparando a questa sfida elettorale.
01:21That's a great question and what I would say is that the way we're seeing
01:27investors prepare for the US presidential election is through the price of gold.
01:33We're seeing gold continuing to go up and I think that is being used as a hedge
01:39against geopolitical risk. So you have investors that are primarily risk on
01:45in their portfolios. They have significant exposure to equities and other risk
01:50assets because the Fed and other central banks are easing. But the way they are
01:56hedging against that geopolitical risk is through an allocation to gold.
02:00And that's why we're seeing gold prices going up so much.
02:03Vediamo quindi quanto è sentito dai mercati questo appuntamento elettorale
02:08negli Stati Uniti. Ecco, ma come impatterà sugli equilibri globali
02:13avere un nuovo inquilino alla Casa Bianca?
02:15So I think that if we were to see a Trump, a second Trump administration,
02:22we really could see some significant reshaping of foreign alliances.
02:28We just don't know exactly what that would look like and we could certainly see
02:33the US withdraw from NATO. That's certainly a possibility.
02:37And so that suggests to me that given what is likely to be continued uncertainty
02:44once a new administration starts, we're probably going to see continued
02:49elevation in the price of gold just as a hedge against that geopolitical risk
02:54and really a hedge against that geopolitical uncertainty.
02:57Per concludere, quali sono i temi principali di questa campagna elettorale
03:01che possono far muovere i mercati?
03:04So there are a few different issues that I think are really important.
03:08The first is, of course, tariffs. That is what the world is looking to.
03:15And I think that could be very disruptive.
03:18What we saw was tariffs in the first Trump administration
03:22creating significant volatility and some stock market sell-offs,
03:28particularly outside the US.
03:30And I think we could see a more heightened version of that this time around
03:34just given that thus far the expectations around what the tariffs will look like
03:40and what the Trump administration, second Trump administration might apply
03:44are much higher than the first Trump administration.
03:48So that has, I think, that will create far more volatility,
03:54certainly will have an impact on the economy as well
03:57and could have an impact on foreign relations.
04:00So another issue is the Fed. The Fed has been independent.
04:05Now that doesn't mean that there haven't been US presidents
04:08that have tried to exert influence on the Fed,
04:11but the Fed has always been able to say it is independent.
04:17And now a second Trump administration could have,
04:21based on comments from former President Trump,
04:24could have a less independent Fed.
04:27He's argued that he should have a seat at the table,
04:31and if we were to have some kind of formalization of the role of the president
04:36so that he could have a seat at the Fed's table,
04:39that could be quite significant in terms of market reaction.
04:45It could reduce the Fed's credibility because it would make the Fed
04:49or could make the Fed more focused on the short term,
04:53more focused on politics as opposed to worrying about the economic cycle.
04:58So I think that could be problematic because the Fed has done a good job up until now
05:03of helping to calm markets when there is volatility.
05:06If we think about recent crises like the pandemic,
05:09but also the global financial crisis, the Fed has stepped in
05:13and provided tools to alleviate the crisis.
05:18It's a question mark. Maybe yes, maybe no,
05:22but it's a question mark as to what could happen if the Fed is less independent.
05:27And then I just think in general fiscal policy is an issue,
05:32but it is not exclusive to one president versus another.
05:37We've had a series of administrations that haven't worried about the deficit
05:43or haven't worried too much about the deficit.
05:45And so we've run budget deficit after budget deficit,
05:49and we have a very big pile of debt.
05:51And we're getting to the point where we could see some bond vigilantism.
05:56We're already seeing, in my opinion,
06:00less use of U.S. treasuries as the go-to safe haven asset class.
06:05I think that's becoming more and more gold.
06:08And that could continue.
06:10And of course the U.S. needs buyers for its treasuries.
06:14So any kind of significant increase in the deficit,
06:21and both are projected by their plans to increase the deficit,
06:26excuse me, increase the national debt by running deficits,
06:29but more so another Trump administration based on the plans they've offered so far.
06:35That could be problematic in terms of pushing up treasury yields,
06:40increasing that premium that investors are getting to invest in them.
06:44So that's more longer term implications,
06:47although we could see it reflected in the near term.
06:50Again, there are a lot of different factors impacting treasury yields,
06:53but I think that would be part of it.
06:55Interessantissima analisi.
06:57Siamo certi di questi temi.
06:59Continueremo a parlarne anche nelle prossime settimane.
07:02Rappresenteranno i driver principali per i mercati finanziari.
07:06Io ringrazio Christina Huppert, Chief Global Market Strategist di Invesco,
07:11di aver anticipato anche agli spettatori di financiallounge.com
07:15i temi portati all'attenzione dell'evento oggi di Invesco.
07:18Grazie.
07:19Grazie.
07:20E grazie a tutti voi di averci seguiti.
07:22Appuntamento come sempre al prossimo Stay Live,
07:24sempre su financiallounge.com
07:48Sottotitoli creati dalla comunità Amara.org