Exciting Race Insights: QE II Challenge Cup Preview

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00:00We're going to talk about a huge race, the QE2, the second challenge.

00:03That's going to go as race number eight on Saturday, October the 12th

00:07over at Keeneland. In our second segment we'll talk pick five

00:10and then in the last segment we'll talk some Belmont at the big A. They have a

00:13couple good stakes races over there. So the ladies get center stage this

00:17weekend Alexa. Let's take a look at this field for

00:20the Queen Elizabeth the second challenge cup

00:23over at Keeneland in race number eight. It's going to be the number one pin up

00:27Betty kicking things off and this is a nice filly that likes a mile

00:30and an eighth. I'd imagine she'll be forwardly placed from the inside.

00:34The issue that I have with her she's going to have to turn the tables on

00:37waves of mischief who's gotten the better of her the last couple times

00:40and waves of mischief is probably not the toughest of her rivals in here so

00:44this is going to be a more difficult group than she's had to face.

00:48It is you know she really is a consistent

00:51good filly you know out of her 12 starts she's only run two but her speed figures

00:55are consistent and she's been in the money eight out of

00:5712 times. The two races she has won were at today's distance so that's a plus.

01:02I can see her playing I can see playing her in the exotics but

01:06you know I don't know how you felt looking at this race I was like

01:09oh my god. I can't even stick on air what you texted me. I know I was like

01:16because then we'd get thrown off for FCC violations and stuff like that but

01:19it's a difficult race. Oh competitive it is so so so competitive and I really

01:23usually like really competitive races because

01:27you get good prices there's not gonna be a super strong heavy favorite you can

01:30make a lot of good money but I also like usually having some strong opinion

01:35in competitive races and this one is just frankly very tough so

01:39yeah Pinup Buddy's gonna have tough competition to face.

01:43Yeah you're gonna really have to put your handicapping hats on for this race

01:46every single horse you can make cases for and against.

01:50Caitlyn her greatness comes down from a track that you and I love to play

01:54Woodbine and what was so impressive about her Alexa

01:57she actually beat the boys last time out in the king's plate which is the

02:01kind of Canadian version of the Kentucky Derby so

02:04we know she can get the distance no problem she's proven on the grass

02:08and she beat the boys so she's kind of an interesting player.

02:12She is interesting very talented like you're saying

02:15has a number of very fast workouts coming into this so I like that a lot

02:18she's super fit I do think this arguably will be some of

02:23the toughest competition she's going up against and I think this will be

02:26she'll need to improve off that king's plate start again

02:30what's using her for the price because 12 to 1 plus 1200 I mean those are

02:34really fantastic odds but this is a tough field and she's got some

02:37versatility to her but I think with just that one race on the grass we probably

02:41need to see just a little bit more from her overall

02:43on the green stuff we get to the number three she feels pretty

02:46and she does feel like one of the top contenders in here

02:49Alexa she goes out for the Cherie DeVoe barn who just continues to step forward

02:53as like one of these big prominent barns now with tons of star

02:57horses under her care the blinkers come on for

03:00she feels pretty I'll say that while she won one of her

03:03three races this year it's probably been a little disappointing for her because

03:06she's been the heavy favorite twice and been defeated I don't know if the

03:10mile and eight is the best distance for her it seems like she gets a little bit

03:13short after the mile but I have an opinion

03:17that she'll probably be one of the horses here late in stretch that's you

03:20know in the mix she'll be in the mix for sure she'll be

03:23the tepid favorite in here I'm guessing morning line five to two or plus 250

03:28and I mean yeah you cannot ignore Cherie DeVoe right now I mean she is

03:33on fire at keeneland I mean she's on fire all over the place but at this

03:37keeneland meet she's won a third of her starts been in the money

03:40over 50 percent of the time so you really can't ignore her but with how

03:44competitive this field is I'd be hesitant to use she feels

03:48pretty if she does go off lower than her morning line odds I would

03:52want at least that five to two in order to better

03:55completely agree with you when it's a competitive race

03:58that means if you're giving chances to many horses in there

04:01you want to bet the horses that are probably the biggest odds that are going

04:04to give you the most value there so like moving to a horse like the number

04:08four waves of mischief it just shows you how competitive this

04:11race is this is a horse who's been in really nice form she comes off a second

04:15place effort last time out at Kentucky two back was a winner if you're just

04:18looking at speed figures she's not that far out of it she's just

04:22also going to have to step up and face most likely the toughest group she's

04:25ever dealt with yeah absolutely you know she's been

04:28constantly improving minus that one start at woodbine which was on synthetic

04:32and you know not turf and I'm pretty comfortable just

04:36throwing that out and ignoring that she's also won here at Keeneland in

04:40April for her first start going long on the

04:42turf so we don't have to worry about you know the distance surface combination

04:45there and this track she does have a little bit of a similar

04:49running style to quite a few in here she's I think gonna want

04:52a stalking trip so that's a little bit negative because I think that

04:56position is going to be coveted I run the risk of sounding like a broken

05:00record in here I can see betting her with the odds but it's

05:03she's gonna have to improve yeah that's the thing with here this is one of those

05:06races where you're probably going to be watching this race on Saturday

05:09and there's going to be a couple horses that float up those might be the horses

05:12that you want to key in on I got to get the voice ready for the

05:15number five soprano soprano I think a major player coming in

05:21from Ireland this is a horse who most recently was third behind Porta Fortuna

05:25and that's going to be one of the favorites in the Breeders Cup she has

05:28faced really really tough company Alexa she

05:32has and this is the first time in the US

05:34ran that really decent race last out in Ireland in the group one

05:38matron stakes and I I once asked one of my handicapping mentors

05:42how do I really truly compare these you know foreign races to US races and he

05:47told me he feels like their grade twos are like our grade ones and their grade

05:51threes are like our grade two so their group one races I see is a little

05:56bit higher level than our grade one races so

05:59I mean she did really well in that spot so I do

06:02have some confidence there and as we get to the six I know oversubscribed is

06:06a horse that you like a little bit Alexa so why don't you start us off talking

06:09about this one yeah I like her a lot she's a closer

06:12usually coming from four or five lengths off however two back she came

06:15from 19 lengths behind and one by three so essentially closed like almost 25

06:20lengths her trainer is Chad Brown who's won this

06:22race four out of last last six years so this is his element he's

06:27also been in the money six out of ten starts this

06:29meet at Keeneland so oversubscribed I think is a big player

06:32and you'll see in this short meet a lot of these barns you were just talking

06:35about this with Cherie DeVoe they will have their horses primed and

06:38pointed for just the four weeks or five weeks that this meet goes so you'll see

06:42them having all these horses cycling in just

06:44ready to fire uh the number seven Buchu is the next one we take a look at

06:48I just feel like she might be a cut below this group Alexa like really

06:53honest come like capable of a big effort but

06:55this is probably going to be a lot different group than what she's used to

06:58I agree you know she really was doing great and then just evened out

07:02and you know as a three-year-old developing into her prime I want to see

07:05that development and I'm not seeing it so I'm

07:08gonna pass with Pounce the question that I ask is

07:11does she want the mile in an eighth Pounce is certainly capable of big

07:15efforts and she could be forwardly placed in here

07:18but does she want to get this distance I'm not

07:21super concerned about that is I mean last out was a shorter race than she'd

07:25been running and clearly didn't like that so I do

07:27think she likes the longer distance I think she'll want to be near the lead

07:30and has you know some more gas early in the race but also was able to

07:34close in one of her starts so I do think

07:36Pounce is versatile the number nine Grayosh was so impressive last time out

07:40because she faced she feels pretty she feels pretty was the heavy favorite that

07:43day and honestly Grayosh just ran right by

07:46her no excuses at all she was just better

07:49Flavian Pratt jumps back aboard for Brown talk to us about Grayosh

07:52yeah I mean another Chad Brown contingent in here you have to pay

07:56attention to her um you know she's got one of the best

07:59last outs in the field won that grade two Lake Placid States of Saratoga going

08:02long she's a closer I like her rounding out the field

08:07Candela the French bread another very classy individual that comes into

08:12the U.S. for the first time I get a tougher read on her though I

08:15think I prefer Soprano of the two uh imports Alexa any thoughts on the

08:19outside runner I agree if I'm gonna pick a Euro I would

08:23pick Soprano in this race well let's round things out here with our

08:26selections uh Alexa I'm gonna throw the four on top as

08:29just kind of a sharp horse in good form and

08:31it looks like you're looking for some value in here too as well

08:35yeah I'm going Chad Brown exact in here with Grayosh and over

08:39over subscribed

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