Incoming French government under pressure on multiple fronts

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00:00Well let's get some analysis on this story now from Richard Verli. He is the

00:04France and Europe correspondent for the Swiss newspaper Blick. It's good to have

00:09you on the program Richard. So we have now seen Barnier's full cabinet and he

00:15picked centrist and right-wing ministers mostly. There's only one left-wing

00:20minister on his cabinet but he promised to work with the left. How did we get

00:24here? I think for Barnier it's a failure in the sense that he would have clearly

00:31preferred a national unity government. He wanted to attract some figure for the

00:36left but they refused. So as you say he's got only one in his cabinet, the new

00:41Minister of Justice Didier Migaud, who was formerly a parliamentary from the

00:46Socialist Party but who had distanced himself for quite a while with this

00:51political party. Now we're going to see what Barnier will do. We've got to give

00:56him the chance to prove that he is not a rightist Prime Minister but when we

01:01look at the names that you just mentioned, especially the name of the new

01:05Minister of Interior Bruno Retailleur, we may have some doubt because Retailleur is a

01:10clearly right-winger, especially on immigration, and we can expect from this

01:15Barnier government a very harsh stance on immigrants. And we've also had some

01:21reaction from parts of the left. Socialist Party chairman Olivier Faux has

01:26called the cabinet a government that gives democracy the finger. Give us your

01:31thoughts on that. Well I do not share completely the opinion of Olivier Faux.

01:37For sure the left bloc with 193 members of parliament among 577 has won the

01:47election but it has won with a very narrow margin and after all what is

01:52important in the National Assembly is if you can form a coalition or not and the

01:57left refused to form a coalition with the centre. They wanted their own Prime

02:02Minister to be nominated, Madame Lucie Castet, and President Macron made it

02:06clear that he didn't want to associate La France Insoumise, the radical left, in

02:11any government. So I would say responsibilities are shared. On the one

02:16end, yes, this government doesn't reflect the result of the election. It doesn't

02:21reflect the fact that a large number of French voters have opted for the

02:25national rally, the extreme right or the left bloc, but on the other hand part of

02:32the left who could have been associated in a government just refused. And how do

02:36you think the balance of power is likely to be like now in the National Assembly?

02:42Talk us through what it's going to look like now. Well we will have a very soon a

02:46test and it will be a crucial test as the budget is concerned. France is in

02:51difficulty, financial difficulty, the public deficit is rising, public

02:56debt is growing. So Prime Minister Michel Barnier will have to first of all get a

03:03budget voted. And you could see in the appointment he made, he decided to have

03:08the minister in charge of budget directly under his authority, which is a

03:14clear sign. So we will see if Barnier can win this budget battle. If he managed to

03:19do so, then he will start on a better track than right now. We will have to see

03:24what he can get in terms of compromise with the left, maybe with that part of

03:30the left who refuse to participate in the government, but who may decide to

03:35abstain and not to decide to vote a censorship motion, which will lead Barnier

03:40to resign.

03:42And talk us through what other challenges Barnier has. You've laid out the fact

03:46that he does need to get a budget through. Talk us through what else he

03:50needs to overcome now.

03:52Well, I would say he's got three challenges, and all of them will be

03:56difficult. The first challenge is to establish a new relationship with

04:00Emmanuel Macron. You know, in France, the president is the supreme authority.

04:05But Emmanuel Macron at the moment is a minority president, and a large part of

04:10the population don't trust him anymore. So Barnier has to prove that he's an

04:14independent prime minister, or at least that he has an autonomy to govern, that

04:19he's not Macron's creature. That's the first challenge. Second challenge is the

04:25budget, as I say, because behind the budget, you've got public services,

04:29you've got purchasing power. A lot of French people consider that their public

04:34services are degrading. They want more money, more income, and that will bring

04:39the issue of taxes. Barnier will have to raise tax. And as you guessed, this is

04:43quite unpopular. And we'll see how he applies those taxes. He wants to tax the

04:48rich. Let's see what he will do. And the third challenge will be on the

04:53international front. Nominating Jean-Noël Barraud as Minister of Foreign Affairs is

04:58quite a challenge. He's an unknown entity. He's someone who is talented, but he'll

05:04have to work with Emmanuel Macron. They will fly together as soon as Monday for

05:08the UN General Assembly. And put yourself in the shoes of foreign government. They

05:13have seen since 2022, three foreign ministers, Catherine Colonnaud and

05:19Stéphane Séjourné, then now Jean-Noël Barraud. It's time to get stable if France

05:24wants to have a voice on the international scene.

05:27So that's what's next for Barnier. Tell us what's next for the left and people that

05:32voted for the left in July's parliamentary elections.

05:36Well, the left as a bloc is in a difficult position, though they can claim

05:41that there is a kind of democratic denial, which may be true in a way. Still, they

05:47have to decide whether they want to remain united, all part of the left, the

05:51socialists, La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the green and the

05:55communists, or whether part of this coalition, I would say, show some

06:00willingness to compromise. And because of the need for France to advance, decide to

06:06abstain or eventually even to vote in favor of this Barnier government. At the

06:11moment, I doubt it. I think the left has made the choice of its own political

06:15objective, the town election, regional election coming in 2025, then the

06:21presidential election in 2027. But by doing so, it may disappoint a lot of voters

06:29from the center left who are pragmatic and do not want the left to be only a

06:34protest kind of movement, a protest bloc. But they would like also to see, for

06:40example, the socialists, the social democrats, to come back and accept

06:45somewhat to govern or to compromise.

06:48Richard, thank you so much for talking us through the situation here, the

06:52political situation here in France. We really appreciate your thoughts. That's

06:55Richard Verli, the France and Europe correspondent for the Swiss newspaper

07:00Blick. Thank you so much.

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