'Le Pen taking a huge gamble' with ouster of Barnier government, expert says

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00To discuss further we're joined now by Rainbow Murray, Politics Lecturer

00:03at Queen Mary University of London. Thank you so much for being with us on

00:08the programme Rainbow. As we heard there in Selina's report

00:12they've opted for chaos over responsibility according to supporters

00:16of Barnier. So what happens next?

00:20What happens next is uncertain. In the short, well the immediate term

00:24the current government has to continue in a caretaker capacity

00:28but the pressure is now on Macron to appoint a new government quickly.

00:31Last time it took him two months. I don't think he can afford to take two

00:35months now. So he has to get a new government in

00:38place as soon as possible. There's also the problem of not having a

00:41budget. There's a deadline of the end of

00:44December to get a budget through. If that deadline isn't met then France

00:49potentially faces a shutdown scenario as we see in America where

00:54no civil servants can be paid. We'll probably see emergency legislation

00:59to carry over the previous year's budget until a new budget is in place

01:04but that won't help to address inflation nor the growing deficit.

01:08So France is really in a position of turmoil right now.

01:11And all sides blaming the other as we've seen this evening. Who is ultimately

01:15responsible for the collapse of this government?

01:18Oh that depends who you ask because everybody says it's someone else's fault.

01:23A lot of people are pointing the finger at Emmanuel Macron

01:27and part of the point of this censure motion was to put pressure on Macron.

01:31If you listen to the left they're not even particularly

01:36fussed about the specific circumstances that led to this.

01:41They weren't looking for any opportunity to bring the government down

01:44because they felt bitter that they weren't

01:46made the government in the first instance having got the most votes after

01:49the recent election.

01:52The far right are trying to stir up trouble. They're trying to deflect

01:58attention away from their own legal wars that the Marine Penalty

02:02won in the presidential election. So they're all playing their own

02:06particular games and the people who seem to be the most

02:09constructive out of all of this are the Socialist Party, the moderate left

02:13who are saying that they would potentially be willing to build

02:17a more collaborative government in the wake of the fall of the current

02:22one, hoping that the left might now get some

02:25recognition and that they could work together with Macron.

02:27And you mentioned Marine Le Pen there. How does the far right leader come out

02:31of all this?

02:33She's taking a huge gamble. She has spent the last decade or more

02:38trying to build the respectability of the party, trying to

02:41present the party as a potential party of government, a serious party rather

02:45than a party on the fringes. She is now

02:50placing the country in a state of political and economic turmoil by

02:54bringing down a government that was actually

02:56doing a lot to try and appease her and her voters.

02:59She's facing anger, for example, from farmers who are potentially part of

03:03her core electorate because they're

03:08concerned about the economic repercussions of this.

03:11So she is trying to position herself in a situation where she might

03:17potentially be able to run for president at the

03:21expense of her reputation in the longer term.

03:24And Rainbow, how much of a disappointment is this for Michel Barnier after

03:28successfully negotiating Brexit on behalf of the EU to end his

03:32political career like this?

03:35Obviously no one wants to go out having achieved nothing

03:39other than the record of being the shortest ever serving French prime

03:43minister. But he can also truthfully say that he

03:46was dealt a terrible hand coming into this.

03:49He was really set up to fail. He had no majority in parliament.

03:54Parliament was split three ways, with two-thirds of parliament against

03:58him from the outset. So while he's achieved very little, one

04:02could argue that there was not much else that he could have done.

04:06We're due to hear from the French president tomorrow evening.

04:10Sources say he wants to appoint a new premier minister

04:14potentially before the reopening of Notre Dame this weekend. Is that feasible?

04:20It's feasible if Macron can decide on somebody

04:24and that person agrees to do it. Macron faced stumbling blocks

04:29previously because he didn't want to appoint anybody from the left because

04:33they were threatening to overturn the pensions legislation that

04:38Macron had staked so much of his presidency upon.

04:41We're now seeing a slight shift in the left between the far left with whom he's

04:45still not willing to work and the

04:48moderate left who were previously aligning themselves

04:51with the far left who might now potentially be willing to work with

04:55Macron. If they are, that offers a glimmer of hope. If not

04:58then he's probably looking either at a loyalist from his own party or

05:02potentially even some kind of technocratic government which is a

05:06possible solution but won't last that long given that it

05:10doesn't have its own democratic legitimacy.

05:13Who do you think might be in the running? Are there any particular names that spring

05:16to mind? A couple of names have emerged from the

05:21political centre. One is the current defence minister

05:25who is loyal to Macron but also respected by some of the far right

05:30and therefore potentially able to keep them on board. Another

05:34is Josua Beirut who is from the Modem party and has previously

05:39run for president who also has a certain degree of sympathy

05:42from the far right even though he doesn't share their politics, just

05:45their legal battles. Either of them might sit well with Macron. Whether they

05:50would be able to command any kind of majority in parliament is another

05:54question altogether. The alternative is that he looks to

05:57appoint a socialist in an attempt to bridge

05:59the moderates on both the left and right alongside the centre.

06:04There'll be huge challenges as we say for whoever does take on this position.

06:09Is it a poison chalice so to speak? Absolutely. It was a poison chalice for

06:14Barnier as we've seen. It's a poison chalice for anyone who

06:17takes it on because the maths of parliament hasn't changed. We still have

06:21three fairly evenly sized blocks who cannot

06:24work together and we still have seven months before the

06:28cards can be redealt, before another parliamentary election can be held.

06:32So I think anyone who comes into this role is going to struggle to achieve

06:36anything but they can't get away with doing

06:39nothing because France urgently, desperately needs a tough

06:43budget that can address its spiralling deficits.

06:46So it's the worst of all possible hands that someone is going to have to step up.

06:54We may hear in the coming days who that might be. Rainbow thank you so much for

06:57your time on the programme this evening. That is Rainbow Murray Politics Lecture

07:01at Queen Mary University of London.

Category

Transcript

Recommended