'No solution to this equation' - analyst says split parliament makes it unlikely a new French government will succeed - video Dailymotion

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00:00If successful, this would be the first time a French government has been forced out in more than six decades

00:06and will again leave the President Emmanuel Macron with the tough task of forming a government

00:10after his snap election gamble in July provided no clear winner.

00:15More on this, I'm joined on set now by Hind Zian.

00:18Thanks so much for being with us here.

00:20Thank you for having me.

00:21Where do you see things going from here?

00:24So it's looking almost impossible to be honest.

00:27So ever since the dissolution that we had a couple of weeks ago now, a couple of months ago now,

00:32we've always thought that having an assembly that is split in three is never going to get us anywhere.

00:37And honestly, our constitution has been and the regime has been very much weakened

00:41by what has happened in the past few months, past few weeks.

00:44But the idea here is to say that the President can't dissolve Parliament until next summer.

00:51So what's going to happen next?

00:52Well, probably this government is going to fall because if you do the math,

00:58far left plus far right, they're going to be able to topple the government.

01:02But then here again, if this government hasn't been able to make any progress,

01:07probably the next one either, because you have such a split Parliament,

01:11such a split French political life, political sphere,

01:15that there is almost no solution to this equation except to dissolve him.

01:21But we can't do that until next year, next summer.

01:24And one, this is the first one.

01:26And the second one is basically the President deciding to quit his job

01:32and to have a new snap in the election, but this time a presidential election.

01:39So it would require Emmanuel Macron to fall on his sword.

01:41For our international viewers, I mean, can France function if it doesn't have a government?

01:47What kind of things will that hold up?

01:49It can actually still function.

01:51That's what we were talking about a little bit earlier.

01:53The idea is what is going to be able, very highly likely able to happen,

01:58is to basically we're just going to renew the budget that we had last year.

02:04We're going to renew it for 2025.

02:06So we're not going to have a shutdown like in America,

02:09except, of course, any major political projects are going to be put on hold

02:14until we actually have a true budget for 2025.

02:18So everything that is functional, administrative is going to keep going.

02:21But the more political stuff is going to be probably put on hold.

02:25Now, remind us how we got here.

02:27It was sort of a gamble by Emmanuel Macron to try to keep out the far right.

02:31Where do you think things stand with that now?

02:33Are they just as close to the doors of power, do you think?

02:36They have never been this strong.

02:38And honestly, today, they're probably the strongest political power in France,

02:44especially in Parliament, but also in how many votes they got in the last election.

02:49And just to remind our viewers, 11 million people voted for them.

02:53So that makes them the biggest power in terms of votes,

02:56but also the biggest power in Parliament,

02:58because they're the ones who can actually make or break the government.

03:02So their power is so great today that the government is about to be toppled

03:07because he didn't accept to sacrifice more of its tax of its budget

03:15to actually follow what they were asking for.

03:19Mr. Barnier, the prime minister's government,

03:22has already given up on a lot of parts of his tax,

03:28just because the far right expected him to do so and asked him to do so.

03:34The far right, the national rally, has never been this strong in the country.

03:38And you say that because they are the single biggest party on their own,

03:42but it's actually the grouping of left-wing parties

03:45that are the biggest block in Parliament.

03:47And they've been up in arms because Michel Barnier

03:50and the centre-righters were the ones put in power.

03:53Do you think we could see a shift to the left also?

03:56It's a good question.

03:56So the left, since the beginning, has a very simple strategy and mindset.

04:02Because we were first in terms of seats, we should be in government,

04:06we should be governing,

04:07and a prime minister should be selected from our people.

04:11It wasn't the case because of specific constitutional and institutional realities

04:17in the French politics.

04:19But here the idea for them is to basically just hold on,

04:24vote obviously the no-confidence vote, the motion of no-confidence,

04:29and maybe expect a presidential election.

04:32And some of the biggest leader of the strongest group,

04:37of the strongest party in this left coalition,

04:41is expecting a presidential election before 2027.

04:44So that's, for them, it's where they're more looking,

04:48the left is more looking into what is going to happen

04:51after this government,

04:52and after we've done trying several governments maybe,

04:56more than what is happening now.

04:58It's a real moment in history.

04:59Thank you, INSEAN, founder of the tech startup Generation Politique.

05:03Thanks for being with us for that analysis.

05:05Thank you for having me.

05:06We move on now to the latest.

'No solution to this equation' - analyst says split parliament makes it unlikely a new French government will succeed

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