Golf Wednesday Best Bets: Expert Picks & Game Insights

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00:00Well, coast to coast here on a Wednesday, a golf Wednesday on

00:04C2C, Carver High in for Scotty.

00:07Great to have you with us on Sports Grid and Sports Grid

00:10radio. Of course, every week here on a golf Wednesday, we

00:13give you the outrights, the placements, the first round

00:16leader bombs, everything, usually the prime minister out

00:20on assignment this week. So we bring in our other golf guru

00:25who usually does the live with me. Brady Cannon steps up and

00:28then Brady, good to see you as always, my man. And listen,

00:31Brady on fire with the PGA as well, because I know Brady had

00:36Hideki Matsuyama last week in that first leg of the playoff at

00:41the St. Jude. Brady, great to see you and congrats on going to

00:44the window with Hideki.

00:46Hey, thank you very much, Mike. Big shoes to fill here with

00:50filling in for Cam Stewart, but on a golf Wednesday. Yeah, I'm

00:54glad to just be here and be alive, Michael. I mean, sweating

00:57that Hideki Matsuyama ticket last week was something. I mean,

01:01he had a five shot lead with seven to play. And oh my gosh,

01:05then it was almost gone in a wink of an eye. He went four

01:09over par the next four holes. And thankfully, Victor Hovland

01:12missed a couple of putts down the stretch and Hideki nails

01:15that bomb at 17. And, and we got home, but they're never easy,

01:20are they?

01:21They're never easy, Brady. And it's funny, because we all do

01:25this. And we all spend Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday just kind

01:28of looking at numbers or looking at angles and looking at all

01:32these things. And one of the biggest things that was thrown

01:34around for three days last week, was that Hideki doesn't have his

01:39caddy. He doesn't have his coach. They all got the you

01:43know, they got robbed in London had to go back to Japan to get

01:45their passport. Oh, you can't play a decade this week. He's so

01:48tight. He's close with everyone. He goes out and wins Brady. So

01:52that's just kind of sometimes all these things that we

01:55obsess over, when we're trying to get ready for the golf, you

01:58just got to throw them out the window. Sometimes it's funny.

02:01Oh, you're absolutely right. And I thought he was a great fit for

02:04the golf course. One of the heaviest statistics I leaned on

02:07last week was scrambling. You know, Hideki is one of the best

02:10in the world. Over the last 24 rounds coming in, he was second

02:14in that field and scrambling. And I love the way the course

02:17was similar to what we saw like off national in Paris, where you

02:22had a lot of water, relatively narrow fairways, and you really

02:25kind of had to work your ball around and avoid that water

02:28hazard that were you know, that was everywhere in Paris and very

02:32similar at TPC Southwind in Memphis, where you had I think

02:3511 holes where water came into play. And Hideki obviously was

02:40able to negotiate it in Paris getting the bronze medal. And he

02:44basically just replicated the same formula off the tee. And he

02:47got red, absolutely scorching hot with the putter for the

02:51first three days. And you know what that usually means you cool

02:54off on the final day. So I was worried but he was able to to

02:57make a couple one accounted and get us home.

03:00And now he's gonna sit in some very cushy position heading out

03:04to Castle Pines for the BMW Hideki don't got to worry about

03:09much. He'll be at Eastlake next week in Atlanta for the tour

03:12championship. Let's talk about this course Brady because I like

03:17when we get a place that we don't normally see. I think it

03:20makes it fun. It makes it interesting. I love the same old

03:23places. But of course, that's been over 20 years. Since it's

03:27been played on the PGA TOUR 48 out of the 50 guys in the field

03:30have never played a competitive round at this place. So I think

03:34it makes it very intriguing. We know who's going to be the chalk

03:37at the top. And that's going to be Scottie Scheffler. Of course,

03:39Xander Shoffle. Rory gets bumped down a little bit after a very

03:44tough weekend for him in Memphis. Tell me a little bit

03:47about Castle Pines very long, Brady.

03:51Yeah, absolutely. It'll be the longest PGA TOUR course ever at

03:55over 8100 yards. Now, you figure in the altitude, they're playing

03:59at about 6300 feet. And the course is probably going to

04:03adjust to about 7400 yards the way it plays and a par 72.

04:09That's actually pretty standard length. But you go back to the

04:12international. You mentioned it started in 1986. I used to love

04:16to watch this tour event. You know, you get to see the

04:18mountains and the streams and golf in Colorado, which we don't

04:21always see and seeing these players just launch the ball at

04:25elevation. So yeah, I'm absolutely excited to be back

04:28here. I think total driving will be a big factor this week, Mike,

04:32because it's going to take these guys a minute to adjust to that

04:36elevation. And how do they, you know, how do they kind of rein

04:39in their ball off the tee, maintaining the accuracy, yet

04:43trying to take advantage of that thin air and get it out

04:46there as far as they can as well. So I think total driving

04:49is going to be key. You're going to have a lot of approach shots

04:52from 200 yards or better. And it's going to be a different

04:55club than you're used to hitting from 200 yards or better when

04:59we're down at sea level. And I think you're going to miss a lot

05:02of greens and regulation. So once again, like we talked about

05:05with a decade, I think scrambling will be important

05:07once again this week. And I think they're going to make some

05:10scores, Mike. One local odds maker out here at the Westgate

05:14Superbook. He made the under over proposition for winning

05:18score of 22 and a half, 22 and a half under par. So he is

05:23expecting some birdies here at Castle Pines. And I don't

05:27disagree necessarily, if you can find some fairways and get your

05:31approach game on, you're going to make some scores here this

05:34week.

05:35All right, Brady, give it to me the outrights for you this week

05:39in Colorado.

05:41Well, first of all, I'm right there with you. I didn't play

05:44it. But I absolutely agree with your Morikawa play. I was on him

05:48last week. I like to go on this guy when driving accuracy, I

05:52feel is more of a factor. And he's been so close. I said

05:56basically the same thing that you just said, it would be wild

05:59if we went through this entire year with without Morikawa

06:02winning. He's been so close. So I'm rooting for you. We do land

06:06on the same guy in Justin Thomas. I got him at like 52 to

06:11one. Isn't that amazing? 50 players in the field and Justin

06:15Thomas is 52 to one. That's crazy. But it just tells you

06:19where his game has gone the last couple years, but we've started

06:21to see it turn around. A couple things I looked at this week

06:25where how have guys done when playing at elevation? And how

06:29have they done on Jack Nicklaus designs? Well, Justin Thomas has

06:32done tremendous at the memorial. He's got a number of top 10

06:36finishes their top 15 finishes at the memorial. And then also

06:40when they played that workday charity open member when they

06:43went back to back weeks at Muirfield Village in 2020.

06:47Thomas lost in a playoff actually to who your guy Colin

06:51Morikawa, and he also finished runner up at Sherwood Country

06:55Club in Thousand Oaks, California, another Nicklaus

06:57design when they played the Zozo there in 2020. So he's got the

07:02Nicklaus chops. And at the WGC Mexico, when they used to play

07:06there at elevation, they played that tournament for four years

07:09at Chapultepec. And Thomas was a machine there. Every year, all

07:13four years, he finished top 10. And he was runner up one year as

07:16well. So, you know, it just makes sense from those two

07:19angles. And I said, Okay, 52. Let's try it with JT and see if

07:23he can recreate what he's done in the past at elevation and at

07:27Nicklaus design golf courses. And then like you said, I went

07:30to a big dog. I went with Rory McIlroy. Okay, there's 50 guys

07:34in the field. And let's be realistic. Let's say 30 of them

07:37have a realistic chance to win, right? So Rory McIlroy at 16 to

07:42one in a field of 30. Basically, I thought that was a pretty good

07:46price. I think we're getting a little bit of value because he

07:48finished second to last last week in Memphis. I talked about

07:52total driving. There's nobody better. He's second on the PGA

07:56Tour and total driving is Rory McIlroy. There's reports that

07:59he's just been blistering the golf ball out there. He might

08:02hit it 400 yards one time this week. If he can find the

08:05fairways, he's going to be tough to beat. And then I went a

08:08little deeper at 25 to one to another guy that just mashes the

08:12ball off the tree off the T long and straight number three on

08:17tour in total driving Ludwig. Oh, Baird. Also great on

08:21approach. You know, I just think again a fit for this golf

08:24course. And I think me when we may have gotten some value on

08:27his price as well with him finishing 40th last week. So I

08:31was a little surprised to see him as high as 25. Now he's

08:35creeped down a little bit. I've seen him closer to 2021 to one.

08:39I thought 25 was a tick too high. And then I went with Mr.

08:42Red Hot. Billy Horschel has three top 10 finishes in a row

08:47comes off of the runner up at the Open Championship finished

08:51eighth at Valhalla earlier this year. Another Nicholas design

08:54has won at Mirafield Village before the Memorial Tournament

08:58and Nicholas design and has won at elevation the last time the

09:02BMW championship was in Colorado 2014 17 miles away at Cherry

09:08Hills. Who is your winner? Billy Horschel and he went on to win

09:11the FedEx Cup that year. So give me McElroy, Oberg, Horschel

09:15and JT for a four pack. I think you're absolutely right. Brady

09:19you're getting two guys there at this really three if you count

09:22JT. You're right. That's a discounted price with only 50

09:24guys in the field. But Rory's been coming off between five and

09:2710. And you're getting them at 16. Ludwig's been between 15 and

09:3120. And you're getting them at 25. That's nice. Quickly, Brady.

09:35Here's what I got for placements. I'm with you on

09:37Rory. He's bouncing back this week. He's gonna have a chip on

09:40his shoulder after how bad he played. I'll play him t five at

09:42210. Fleetwood, Finau and Sepp Straka all top 10s for me. These

09:47are guys that are right around that 30 number got to make sure

09:50that they're playing at Eastlake next week. And Nick

09:52Dunlap and Eric Cole for me riding a little hot wave guys

09:55who are between 30 and 50 Brady that really need to play well.

09:59They might not do enough to get there. But I think they'll play

10:02well again this weekend and set themselves up for a chance on

10:05Sunday. First round leaders we had Chris Kirk last week at 90

10:09to one. Cantlay, Fleetwood, Rye, Zalatoris, Sepp and Cole. We like

10:14guys who are either fast starters or played well on

10:16Sunday and they're coming into this event. Brady, there it is

10:20the golf Wednesday picks baby. I'm glad you were with me.

10:23Go Nick Dunlap man. I know he's taken some sharp action to

10:27finish top 20 here in Las Vegas at Circa.

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