PGA Tour Preview: Sentry Tournament of Champions Best Bets

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00:00because the PGA season begins, the 2025 year,

00:04which always begins with the Tournament of Champions

00:08out in Kapalua, Hawaii.

00:10Everybody, I'm excited.

00:12We wait.

00:13Listen, me and Keith did this all.

00:15Ken, everybody.

00:16We like the fall season.

00:17We like the swing season.

00:19We're back now, baby.

00:20We are back for the real schedule on the PGA Tour.

00:23And Keith Stewart from Read the Line

00:25is always with us before every event.

00:26And it's a Monday, Keith, I know.

00:28But, you know, it's New Year's Eve tomorrow,

00:31New Year's Day on Wednesday.

00:32They key off on Thursday morning.

00:34I wasn't gonna not get you in

00:37before they started on Thursday morning.

00:39So here we are.

00:40Happy New Year, Keith.

00:41It's always great to see you.

00:42Happy New Year to you, too, as well, Mike.

00:44And leave it to the PGA Tour.

00:46If you're gonna screw something up,

00:47might as well be the schedule.

00:48I mean, we're gonna start January 2nd.

00:50You know, can't give it one more week.

00:53You know, we need to start right away.

00:55So here we are.

00:56And, you know, we've got news with the world's number one.

01:00What do you got for me today?

01:01It's a Monday.

01:02Let's get started.

01:03Well, let's start here.

01:04Because obviously the Tournament of Champions,

01:06we have every winner from last year, all the events.

01:10And I believe they also give, if any, top 30 guys, right?

01:13Keith, is it top 30 from last year's FedEx or top 50?

01:17I forget what they do, but they score.

01:18It's, go ahead.

01:20It's the signature guys, Mike.

01:21It's the signature guys plus the winners.

01:23Those guys have the right to attend.

01:25There's 60 guys in the field, $20 million purse,

01:283.6 million for first, no cut, 72 holes,

01:32trade wins, Mark Rolfing, whale watching,

01:34whatever you want, we've got it.

01:36We're out there in Kapalua, Maui.

01:38It's beautiful.

01:39But obviously, when you look at this field,

01:42we have a few guys who we would consider champions.

01:45Obviously, Scotty Sheffler was the biggest champion

01:47of all of 2024, and he's not going to be there.

01:50We told you last week that he had to have surgery,

01:53cut his hand, the wine glass.

01:55Give me an update, Keith, kind of just,

01:57I know we'll try to do the main guys,

01:58but Scotty, how long,

02:01why is Rory not here this week either?

02:05Do we know what's up with Jordan?

02:06How long he's still going to be away?

02:08Like, give me some updates on some of the guys

02:11that were hurting.

02:12Ludwig had the surgery.

02:12He played RSM.

02:13Is he good to go?

02:14Hovland's had some issues.

02:16What's the deal with our biggest guys as we start this week?

02:20Boy, I tell you, you just opened up Pandora's box

02:22right there.

02:24We'll start at number one with Scotty.

02:26Scotty got hurt during Christmas supper.

02:29I guess he had a little dance with a wine glass.

02:31As I mentioned to you guys off air,

02:34I've never cut my hand on a Coors Light can.

02:35So like, you know, if you go be bougie,

02:37then you know what, you might have a cut in your hand.

02:40Your world's number one.

02:41I don't know what to say.

02:43You know, to me, it's like tiger driving.

02:46Like, why?

02:46Why are you ever putting yourself in a position,

02:49you know, to put yourself at risk with injury?

02:52And who knows what happened?

02:53You know, Scotty's a pretty tame guy,

02:55but it's sad to see him not be here.

02:57They're talking about the Amex in three weeks

03:00when the PGA Tour comes back to the mainland

03:02and they're out there in the Palm Desert.

03:04I don't know why he would rush for that.

03:06I think most likely we're gonna see him at the AT&T

03:08when I'm out there at Pebble Beach

03:10the last weekend in January.

03:12Amex seems like a little bit of a rush.

03:15A little bit of news, a little bit of chatter

03:16around the one and only Victor Hovland this week.

03:20A couple of years ago, this guy won the FedEx Cup.

03:22Last year, it was a, you know, a carousel of coaches.

03:28There was a lot going on.

03:29He went back to the coach

03:31that helped him win the FedEx Cup.

03:32Of course, there's news this week

03:34that they have now split ways again.

03:36He also lost a battle, according to his Instagram account,

03:39with a bedpost.

03:41It looks like he has broken his pinky toe on his right foot.

03:44That can't be comfortable.

03:45So Victor's got a little bit of question marks

03:47starting around the beginning of the year

03:49with maybe some injuries.

03:50Jordan Spieth, as you know, and I know,

03:52we talked about it in the fall, he had wrist surgery finally.

03:55So he's been rehabbing all fall.

03:57Now, because of his season last year,

03:59he doesn't have any of the signature designations.

04:02So we won't see Jordan for a little while.

04:04He's gonna have to play in some of these January events

04:07to get inside that Aon Top 5

04:09in order to be able to play Pebble as an AT&T sponsor

04:12or probably a sponsor's exemption.

04:14So I'm sure we'll see him there.

04:17A couple other guys, you know,

04:19we didn't have any major defections to live,

04:21you know, with all the rumors around Tony Finau,

04:24but he does have a bad knee.

04:26You know, he withdrew from not only the Hero World Challenge,

04:29but also the Grand Thornton, which was the mixed-team event.

04:32He was expected to play in both.

04:33So there are a couple guys near the top of the betting board

04:37that have some question marks.

04:38And, you know, we do still have a heavy favorite

04:41in Xander this week.

04:43If they can find sponsors exemptions for Webb Simpson,

04:46they can find them for Jordan Spieth when we get...

04:49I mean, that's just... I'll just...

04:51I'll leave that one at that.

04:52When he's ready to play, Keith,

04:54they'll find a way to get Jordan Spieth

04:56into the biggest events.

04:58All right, Kapaloo, of course,

04:59Tournament of... Always a birdie fest.

05:01You're always gonna get lots of very big numbers here.

05:05Surprise winner last year, too.

05:06You had Chris Kirk, who won the Tournament of Champions.

05:10Don't have Scotty, don't have Rory.

05:13Are we gonna get another down-the-board,

05:15big-shot winner this week,

05:16or do you think some of the favorites will be there?

05:19Xander is a very heavy favorite this week

05:21in the 5-to-1 range.

05:23Well, I think, you know...

05:24I mean, Xander's been here seven times.

05:26He's got to win.

05:27I don't think he's ever finished higher

05:28than 15th or something like that.

05:29So this is definitely a good golf course for him

05:32when it comes to the favorites.

05:33But, you know, you keep calling it

05:35the Tournament of Champions.

05:36And, you know, if we bring in the accuracy guy from PTI,

05:39I'm gonna have to tell you that

05:40we can't call it that anymore, Mike,

05:42because they're not all winners, right?

05:44And when they expanded the field last year,

05:46we actually brought in some very good players,

05:48guys from the top 50 of the previous year

05:50FedEx Cup points list,

05:51that were good enough to win this thing.

05:53And Chris Kirk did it at 200-to-1.

05:55So when you expand the field

05:58and you almost double it in size,

05:59this event used to be 30, 35 guys.

06:01That was it.

06:02Now, all of a sudden, we have 60 guys,

06:04and we probably have 30 or 40 guys in this field

06:07with how easy this golf course is

06:09that if the putter goes nuclear,

06:11they could definitely win.

06:12And Chris Kirk proved that last year.

06:13So it becomes a lot more fun.

06:16And then, you know, considering, you know,

06:20Scotty's little dance with the wine glass,

06:22you know, it opens the field up even more.

06:24I do like Xander as a favorite.

06:26I mean, I'm not gonna bet him,

06:27but he is a strong favorite on this golf course.

06:29But I think it's much more wide open

06:32than it has been, you know, from let's say 2023 and prior.

06:36We've only had one year with the 60 guys,

06:38and it's already proven to like,

06:40kind of open up the field a little bit,

06:41which makes it much more interesting

06:42from a betting perspective.

06:44And look, and by the way,

06:47we never bet anybody under 10 to one, Keith.

06:49You know the rules here.

06:50Nobody under 10 to one,

06:52so Xander's not on anybody's card this week.

06:54But if you go and just look

06:55in the last four to five years of this event,

06:58you know, you can make a case for any guy

07:01who's a big name that they've had success here.

07:03You know, it's always a limited field thing.

07:06There's years, you know, Cantley's been in the top five.

07:08There's years Fino's finished in the top five.

07:09Everyone's kind of had a crack

07:11at finishing in the top five and top 10

07:14of this century tournament of champions at some point.

07:17These guys are the best in the world.

07:18They're going to be able to get some big numbers

07:20on this course.

07:21For me, I still believe, Keith,

07:24Colin Morikawa owes me one from two years ago.

07:27He owes me a ticket for what he did

07:30on the back nine on Sunday and let Ron play great,

07:33don't get me wrong,

07:34but Morikawa owes us at this entry.

07:37So for every year for the rest of my life

07:39that he plays in this event,

07:41I have to play him because I don't want to be there

07:44when he wins and he still owes me from two years ago, Keith.

07:48Well, I'm with you.

07:49I'm going down that road too.

07:50I was there in 23, you know, when Ron got after him

07:55and, you know, he had that collapse on the back nine.

07:58It was terrible.

07:59But you know what?

08:00What led to that collapse that year

08:01is the same reason why I'm very bullish

08:03on Morikawa this year.

08:05He had a career year last year around the green

08:08and with the putter,

08:09which with Morikawa was like unheard of

08:11for the first couple of years

08:12when he was winning major championships.

08:14He was a top five iron player in the world.

08:16And last year's iron game was very average.

08:18Morikawa has always been good in January.

08:21He's got seven top tens in his career

08:22in the first month of the year.

08:24This guy works during the holidays.

08:26I'm not sure every guy does, but Morikawa definitely does.

08:29He's played well at the century.

08:30He puts well on these greens.

08:32That iron game is going to come back.

08:34And when it does and it compliments

08:36what he was able to do in his career last year,

08:38especially post-masters,

08:40all of those times that he contended in those top fives,

08:43I think Morikawa has a very good chance

08:45to rattle off a couple of wins.

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