BetQL Boost of the Day: Insights on Zack Wheeler & the Phillies

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BetQL betting experts weigh in on where you should place your money on the upcoming MLB games

Transcript

00:00Welcome to the Beck QL Daily Boost.

00:06I'm Lucy Burge of Beck QL, and I am joined by Matt Horner and Cade Constable, and we

00:11have an MLB odds boost for all of you today on the Phillies to win and Zach Wheeler to

00:16have over seven and a half strikeouts.

00:19This is boosted to plus 250 at Caesars.

00:20What do we think of this boost?

00:22I like this one.

00:23I'm on the Phillies today as well, so I think that is a great bet.

00:27They have a seven game lead over the Braves in the NL East right now, and Zach Wheeler,

00:31I mean, he's been great all season long.

00:33I know Chris Hale's kind of run away with the Cy Young as of now, but Wheeler has been

00:37solid.

00:38A career ERA just over three against the Braves, and Phillies offense is much better than Atlanta's

00:43as of late.

00:44It scored 34 runs over its last five games.

00:47Atlanta only has 15 runs over its last five games, so in terms of the Phillies winning

00:50tonight, I think with Wheeler and the run score he'll get, I like that.

00:55In terms of the strikeouts, certainly a number, I mean, a tie, but something that Wheeler

00:58can hit.

00:59The Braves have also had a tough time hitting against the Wrighties, and Wheeler's been

01:04solid again, throwing just four runs over his last three starts, so I think the Braves

01:09just being they've struggled at home, they've dropped their last five home games, and they've

01:13struggled hitting Wrighties lately.

01:15I like this boost a lot, Matt.

01:17Yep, don't mind it at all.

01:19As you said, the Braves, they've struggled with Wrighties pretty much all year, especially

01:22since the injuries early in the season.

01:23They have a 24% strikeout rate against them, so they've been keying up at quite a large

01:28margin there.

01:29Wheeler, he can get this done.

01:31It's a large number.

01:32Like you said, eight strikeouts is a lot, but that's why you're getting such plus money

01:35here on the other side.

01:36Love the Phillies as well.

01:37They're taking on Reynaldo Lopez.

01:39I love fading Reynaldo Lopez.

01:42Guy is pretty much an average pitcher that's been really exceeding expectations.

01:472.06 ERA, absolutely insane.

01:50440 expected ERA and a 388 expected FIP.

01:55It's basically two runs higher, so he's due for some extreme regression.

02:00The only problem, I guess, is that the Phillies have not been as good against right handers

02:03as they are lefties, but at the same time, that regression is going to come to him, and

02:07it's going to come soon.

02:08So yeah, I like the Phillies here.

02:10Don't mind this for a sprinkle.

02:11Very nice.

02:12Get in on this odds boost plus 250 at Caesars and take advantage of our offer from BetMGM.

02:18Get $10, get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet does not hit by entering

02:24code LUCY when you sign up for a new BetMGM account now and head to BetQL.com.

02:30Check out our exclusive sportsbook offers there as well, and of course, follow us on

02:34Twitter at KateConstable, at sharp underscore, side underscore, and at LucilleBurge.

02:39Favorite bets today, I am going with the Mets against the Orioles.

02:44This is Francesco Lindor.

02:45Two have over one and a half total.

02:47Oh, no, sorry.

02:48One and a half hits runs RBI, minus 140 at BetMGM.

02:52He has hit this in eight of his last nine games, and he has two home runs in his last

02:57six games, so he's certainly hit this in those.

02:59And in his last seven games, he has nine hits, seven runs, and five RBIs.

03:04And against Dean Kramer, he is batting 667 with a double and a single.

03:08So he could, I think, go over this against Dean Kramer and the Orioles tonight.

03:13Love it, Lucy.

03:14I'm going to go to the Royals.

03:15I'm going to take the Royals on the run line, minus one and a half.

03:19They're playing the Angels, who are not a good baseball team.

03:22Tyler Anderson's on the mound for LA, and he's coming off a terrible outing against

03:26the Blue Jays.

03:27Gave up seven runs in five and two-thirds, inning his ERA in the month of August, has

03:30ballooned just under six.

03:33So I don't really expect him to have a great outing today.

03:37Kansas City starter Cole Reagans, both Reagans and Anderson faced each other back in May,

03:42and Reagans was kind of blown up.

03:44Eight hits, seven runs in that loss, so I don't see him allowing a similar type of performance

03:49to happen tonight.

03:50And then the Royals' offense has just been unbelievable at home, one of the best scoring

03:54teams in the league at home, nearly five and 5.2 runs per game, and a 7-7-6 team OPS at

04:01home.

04:02So I think this Royals' offense can have plenty of success behind Reagans as the starter,

04:06so I will play them minus one and a half on the run line.

04:09Tyler Anderson getting his comeuppance.

04:11Thank God for that.

04:13He's been deserving of it for so long, that name.

04:16Yep.

04:17Oh, God.

04:18I am going to go to the Brewers and the Cardinals matchup tonight.

04:21We're going to take the under-eight runs.

04:22It was eight and a half, it's at eight, and some places it's at seven and a half, and

04:26it keeps going down, down, down.

04:28We've got two trade deadline acquisitions here.

04:31Frankie Montoz is on the mound for the Brewers.

04:34He's a below-average arm, he's not very good at all, but he's due for some positive regression,

04:38a little bit.

04:394.86 ERA, 4.77 expected, with a 4.56 expected FIP.

04:42On the other side, the Cardinals' offense has been pretty cold since the All-Star break.

04:47They've gone from a 1.08 WRC Plus against Wrighties, down to a 1.02.

04:51So they've been steadily going down, down, down in the offensive rankings, and then on

04:54the other side, you've got Eric Fetty going for the Cardinals.

04:57He's due for negative regression.

04:58He's more of an average pitcher than the 3.40 ERA that he's been showing.

05:02Brewers have also been steadily declining against Wrighties all year.

05:05They started off as one of the hottest teams in the league, somewhere around a 1.15, 1.16

05:09WRC Plus.

05:10They're down to 1.08, and they've been going down as the season's gone on.

05:14Mostly, though, this is a look at the weather in this game.

05:17You've got mid-70s temperatures here in St. Louis, and you've got winds blowing in from

05:22left field at about 10 miles per hour, so perfect pitching conditions there.

05:26Also, both of these teams were off yesterday, so their high-leverage relievers, all their

05:30bullpens should be fresh.

05:32They should have all their arms available to them.

05:34Both teams are top 10 and ex-fifth in the bullpen, so once the starters leave, I wouldn't

05:40expect there to be a ton of runs scored, so overall in this one, everything's pointing

05:43towards an under, and I'm going to take the under 8, minus 105 at Caesars, but the line

05:48is moving quickly, so if you're going to grab this, I'd go there as soon as you listen to

05:52this.

05:53Very nice.

05:54And, of course, listen every day and get in on our Odds Boost and all of our bets, and

05:59subscribe to the BetQL Daily Boost wherever you get your fun.

06:04Thanks for watching.

06:05We'll see you next time.

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