BetQL Boost of the Day: Insights on today's MLB games

BetMGM Network

BetQL betting experts weigh in on where you should place your money on the upcoming MLB games

Transcript

00:00Welcome to the BetQL Daily Boost. I'm Lucy Burge of BetQL and I am joined by Matt Horner

00:10and Kate Constable and we have an odds boost for all of you today on four major league baseball

00:15teams to all win today and tonight. It is the Phillies, Royals, Yankees, and Braves all to win

00:22boosted to plus 1,000. At Caesars, what do you guys think of this boost? I mean, I like this one

00:27and let's just start right here with the Yankees because Patrick Corbin is pitching for the Nats

00:34win, right? I mean, not as easy as that, but he is just 3-12 in his starts this season. So,

00:40I like the Yankees there. The Braves over the Twins, this is the one that this one would be

00:45the one that I am concerned about the most. Simeon was Richardson's on the bump for the Twins. He's

00:50been solid throughout the year, but the Braves did just beat the Twins yesterday. Their bats

00:55got going 10-6. So, I like that one. We then have the Royals over the Guardians. The Guardians just

01:01can't score like their offense is so awful, but I think the Royals can get things going quite a bit.

01:06Nine runs against Cleveland yesterday or also yesterday. They had that double header. So,

01:12they played quite a bit of baseball yesterday, but so I like the Royals there and then you have

01:16the Phillies over the Astros. Phillies have been rolling lately. They've won three straight,

01:21including yesterday, against the Astros. So, I mean, for 10-1, I think this is a pretty solid

01:27boost right here. Yeah, I think it's worth a sprinkle. You got Justin Berlander on the mound

01:31for the Astros. Not a big fan of him. He's starting to regress quite a bit. His advanced metrics say

01:35he's kind of an average to below average starter at this point. So, really not great. Yankees,

01:40as you said, going against Patrick Corbin. We laugh now, watch he throws a perfect game or

01:44something. Absolutely ridiculous or something like that, but I mean, you would think the Yankees

01:50could put the bats on Patrick Corbin. Braves and the Twins, that game, I kind of see as a 50-50

01:55type matchup. I see Woods Richardson and Schwellenbach as pretty similar pitchers. So,

02:01honestly, there it could go either way. The one I would worry about, honestly, is the Royals and

02:05the Guardians because I do not like Michael Lorenzen. He is a huge regression candidate

02:11going forward. I know the Cleveland bats have been quiet, which does give us hope here.

02:15I just can't stand Lorenzen. I think he's a very, very, very lucky pitcher. So, that's the one I'd

02:20be worried about, but you're getting 10-1 here. So, maybe a little bit of a sprinkle, don't mind

02:23it. Very nice. Get in on this boost plus $1,000 at Caesars and take advantage of our offer from

02:30BetMGM. Bet $10, get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet does not hit by entering

02:37code LUCY when you sign up for a new BetMGM account now and head to betql.com and check

02:43out our exclusive sportsbook offers there as well. And, of course, follow us on Twitter

02:48at kateconstable, at sharp underscore, side underscore, and at LUCYLBIRD. Favorite bets

02:54today, I am going with Shoei Otani. A tried and true bet, although he didn't get any hits yesterday,

03:00but I'm taking him to go over one and a half hits runs RBI in this game. This is minus 160 at BetMGM.

03:06He did not really do anything yesterday. He did score a run, but I don't think he's going to go

03:10two games in a row without doing anything consequential. So I think he can at least go over

03:14this. He has 11 hits in his last 10 games. He's got nine hits, seven runs, and seven RBI in his

03:19last seven games. And against Cole Irvin, he has two home runs, three doubles, and three singles.

03:25So he's been pretty good against him. I think he can do the same, maybe even hit a home run,

03:29but at least one and a half hits runs RBI for Shoei Otani tonight. I think that's great. Shoei

03:35Otani coming off a game where he had no hits. Yeah, that's not going to happen again. Love that

03:40one, Lucy. I'm going to go with Colt Heath for the Tigers to go over one and a half total bases.

03:45They're playing the Angels tonight and Keith is riding an eight game win streak. He's finished

03:50with at least two hits in six of those eight games. And he's riding a three game streak in

03:55which he's had at least two hits in those games, two hits in four of his last five games. He's

03:59facing Johnny Cueto, who he hasn't seen yet in his career. But Cueto coming back, he only has

04:05one start on the year. Gave up eight hits, three earned runs. So I like Keith to continue hitting

04:11very well right now and go over one and a half total bases tonight.

04:14There you go. Don't mind that. I just saw a lot of Colt Keith watching them

04:18sweep my white socks. That was lots of fun. 101 blisters now. We have the track record.

04:26Over 100. That's a really beautiful thing, I think. It's incredible.

04:33All right. So I'm going to go here tonight with the Mets first five money line against the

04:38Diamondbacks. It's minus 112 over at FanDuel. Sean Manias on the mound for the Mets. He,

04:45if you look at his advanced numbers, you would think he's due for some regression and maybe he

04:48is. But over the last month, he's been on fire. 2.60 ERA. He's generated 37 strikeouts to just

04:55seven walks. It's pretty insane what he's been doing. His command has gotten substantially

05:01better. And I think it's because if you look at the usage rate of his pitches,

05:04his cutter has been cut down to size. I know that's just an awful thing to say,

05:09just a joke. Cut down to size. I like that. Yeah, yeah. Very funny. But it was

05:180.2% he's been using his cutter over the last month. So he's pretty much stopped using it.

05:23And I think that's made him a substantially better pitcher with better command. He stopped

05:28using his cutter. He's going up against the Diamondbacks who are great against lefties.

05:31Normally they have a 114 WRT plus, but I think he's the better pitcher here. When you look at

05:35the other side, you got Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight.

05:39He's coming off an injury that pretty much he was out this entire season. He's pitched 16

05:43innings so far. He's made two straight quality starts that was against the Marlins and the

05:47Rockies. So can't really take a lot from that because those two offenses are some of the worst

05:52in baseball. I view him as more of a, he's got a 394 ERA, 465 expected, and 425 expected fifth.

06:00And that's against those two terrible offenses. Now he gets to go against the Mets tonight.

06:04The Mets are the second best team in baseball against lefties. They have a 118 WRC plus.

06:09That is a huge step up in competition compared to the last two starts that he's made here.

06:14So I give Minaya the advantage. Both pitchers due for regression. You look at their advanced

06:18numbers, but I think Minaya is actually starting to get better when you take a look at how much

06:22his command has improved. So I'm going to take the Mets on the first five money line tonight,

06:27the first five innings. I'm going to ignore the bullpens here. Minus 112 over at Vandal.

06:33Very nice. Get in on all of our bets and the odds boost. Plus 1,000

06:37at Caesars and subscribe to the BetQL Daily Boost wherever you get your podcasts.

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