India elections: Opinion polls suggest easy victory for Modi's BJP

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00:00 We're going to talk about this now with Delano D'Souza, who joins me on set.

00:03 Delano, what's going to be happening in the next few weeks?

00:05 Well, Jeannie, India's election is huge.

00:08 As you said, nearly a billion people, 969 million people, in fact, are registered to vote.

00:13 Just to give you some perspective, in the last U.S. election, we had 239 million Americans

00:18 who were registered to vote.

00:20 So because the numbers are so much higher, this election is spread out in seven phases

00:25 and takes place over the next six weeks.

00:27 So what's at stake?

00:28 Well, we have 543 seats in the lower house of Parliament that are up for grabs.

00:34 272 seats are needed to secure a majority.

00:37 Now, the BJP and its allies are so confident that they're going to get a comfortable majority.

00:44 They say they're going to get 400 seats in this election.

00:48 So who is the opposition?

00:50 Well, we have the country's oldest party, the Congress Party, that is in the running.

00:54 And they have formed a so-called India Alliance.

00:58 Now, India Alliance stands for Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance.

01:02 So it includes the Congress Party, but as well as the Aam Aadmi Party or the Common People's Party.

01:08 Now, going into the election, opposition parties have alleged that the playing field is tilted.

01:13 The Congress has had its funds frozen in the run-up to this election,

01:19 and it says it wasn't able to campaign effectively.

01:21 Plus, we have three members of the Aam Aadmi Party who are behind bars,

01:25 including the chief minister of New Delhi, on charges they say are trumped up.

01:30 So here we have Narendra Modi hoping to get a third term.

01:33 Is his victory all but certain at this point?

01:35 Well, if the polls are to be believed, it seems that the BJP is set to stage a comeback.

01:41 73-year-old Narendra Modi has been in office since 2014, and he's seeking a historic third term.

01:48 Now, the only other prime minister to secure a third consecutive term was India's first prime minister, Nehru.

01:54 Modi's approval rating, as you can see on your screens, is extremely high at 75 percent.

01:59 If we think of approval ratings for Emmanuel Macron or even Joe Biden, they hover around the 30 percent mark.

02:05 Modi's roots come from the right-wing paramilitary organization, the RSS,

02:11 and this has brought Hindu nationalism into the mainstream in India.

02:15 India remains a secular democracy for now.

02:19 The country has over 200 million Muslims plus Christians as well as Sikhs.

02:24 And there are fears that these religious minorities are going to be second-class citizens,

02:30 transformed into second-class citizens.

02:32 Now, while Modi has been feted on the world stage by the likes of Emmanuel Macron or over at the White House by Joe Biden,

02:39 back at home, his party is accused of chipping away at the country's democratic credentials.

02:45 Freedom House now calls India a partly free democracy.

02:50 Now, India has also slipped in the World Press Freedom Index rankings,

02:54 ranking at around 161 out of 180 countries, slipping behind the likes of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

03:02 Now, billionaires who are close to the prime minister have bought many of the mainstream media organizations,

03:08 and they tend to toe the government line.

03:10 Organizations and journalists that hold the government to account often have to face the wrath from government agencies.

03:18 Now, I started my career working in the media in India, and I have spoken to editors,

03:23 and they tell me that there is pressure from the government to rose-tint things.

03:28 Just this week, X, formerly Twitter, was ordered to take down political posts of opposition lawmakers.

03:34 The platform did so, but they said they didn't agree with the decision.

03:38 So here we have some one billion voters going to head to the polls.

03:43 Can we see some common themes amongst the issues that concern them the most?

03:46 Well, the thing is the opposition, the Congress and others, say that this election is about saving India's democracy.

03:52 For the BJP, it's about development.

03:55 Now, when we look at headline figures coming out of India, like GDP growth, for instance, they're really, really good.

04:00 6.3 percent, making India the fifth largest economy in the world.

04:05 Modi is positioning India as the sort of manufacturing hub, as an alternative to China.

04:11 Now we have iPhones being made in India.

04:14 Next week, Elon Musk is due to visit the country and announce a $2-3 billion investment to set up a Tesla factory.

04:23 The country's stock market is on fire.

04:25 People are making a lot of money in India.

04:28 A friend of a friend in December met somebody who invests in the stock market.

04:32 He's my age and his 40s, and he said he's making so much money he can retire today.

04:37 So there is a lot of money.

04:39 But like everything in India, there's always a dichotomy.

04:42 There's a chunk of the population which is struggling, namely the youth.

04:46 Youth unemployment is a real problem in India.

04:48 It's extremely high, 23 percent.

04:52 It is harder for young Indians with a degree to find a job than those who don't know how to read or write.

04:58 It's crazy, isn't it?

04:59 Plus, they see everyday realities on the ground, Jeannie, that make life extremely difficult.

05:04 Climate change is a problem.

05:06 The summer is going on now.

05:07 Temperatures are extremely, extremely high.

05:09 Infrastructure is a problem.

05:11 Everything seems to be constructed at the same time.

05:13 We have roads being built, bridges being built.

05:15 Traffic is a nightmare.

05:17 Buildings are being modernized.

05:19 Pollution is a problem.

05:21 And this is also making the air you breathe difficult.

05:23 Now, all this is pushing Indians out of the country.

05:27 There has been a mass exodus of high net worth individuals.

05:30 Last year, six and a half thousand left the country.

05:33 They're going to places like Singapore, Dubai, the United Kingdom.

05:36 And also, since 2020, the number of Indians illegally crossing into the United States has risen exponentially.

05:43 Last year, 100,000 Indians illegally went to the United States from the U.S.'s southern border.

05:49 Now, if things were so rosy back at home, why are people leaving?

05:52 Indeed.

05:53 All right, Jelana, thanks so much for that.

05:54 And thanks.

05:55 We're lucky to have you looking at all of that for us.

05:57 In the coming weeks, we're going to be talking a lot about that election in India.

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