First days of November could bring a new tropical storm to the Caribbean

A new tropical system may be about to form in the Caribbean Sea as it approaches Central America.

Transcript

00:00 November is the final month of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, but the month

00:05 could kick off with a new tropical system in the Caribbean. Bernie shows us

00:09 what we're watching as he continues to track the tropics tonight.

00:12 Yeah, it's in the Caribbean. That's the only game in town across the Atlantic and

00:18 quite frankly I think this is it's the Caribbean that we're going to be looking

00:21 for development in the tropics not only this week but over the next couple of

00:25 weeks. Here's our area of showers and thunderstorms south of the of Jamaica

00:30 also south of Hispaniola today as it continues to move off to the west. Now

00:35 when I look for development I look for a couple of three things warm water we

00:39 have plenty of that. Do we have any wind shear? If there's wind shear there won't

00:43 be any development. Do we have any dry air? If there's dry air that will also

00:47 prevent development. Well you can see both of those the dry air and the wind

00:51 shear and the water vapor loop. Let me show that to you. I don't see a whole lot

00:54 of dry air a little patch here denoted by the yellow shading but not a whole

00:58 lot that's moving away. Also as far as wind shear is concerned I do see plenty

01:02 of wind shear in the northwest Caribbean winds out of the west southwest and the

01:07 Gulf of Mexico but in this zone south of that area where these showers and

01:11 thunderstorms are going I don't see much wind shear. I think winds are pretty

01:15 light. Notice how things are moving from east to west. So then you take a look at

01:20 water temperatures which are warm enough not only they warm enough when you look

01:24 at the anomalies how do the water temperatures now compared to historical

01:28 averages. I mean within this area there there are a degree or two above normal.

01:32 So we have warm water we have lowering wind shear and we don't have a lot of

01:37 dry air. That tells me this system is going to develop. I think it's going to

01:41 develop here in the next now it has limited time because it's located here

01:45 and it's going to be moving towards Central America by Friday night into

01:48 Saturday so it doesn't have a lot of time but I think there's at least a

01:51 tropical depression here. Right now we have a medium. I personally think it's

01:54 higher than that and the other concern I have is these showers and thunderstorms

01:58 and this area of showers and thunderstorms could stall over Nicaragua

02:02 and Honduras producing heavy rain over the weekend so we'll watch for that.

02:06 Right now I do not see a pathway for this system to impact the United States.