Mets Struggle as Brewers Cling to Hot Streak in MLB

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00:00And first, we're going to start with the New York Mets.

00:01We're in Milwaukee.

00:02Oh, can't wait.

00:03I guess getaway day to get out of Milwaukee.

00:05Because how hot Milwaukee is now bad baseball.

00:07The Mets are playing.

00:07Sean Minaya, the lefty, is going to be on the mound today going up against Quinn Priester.

00:10Oh, easy mismatch.

00:11I know Minaya's name.

00:12I don't know much about this Priester guy.

00:13Priester has been fantastic.

00:15Look at the total today.

00:16It's eight and a half to eights across the board, depending where he's shopping.

00:19And mostly eights now.

00:20But look at the line.

00:21Minus 118 overnight for Milwaukee.

00:23It's still in that range, Tom.

00:24A minus 120 or so price.

00:26I just think people look at Quinn Priester and say he's not that good.

00:28He has been spectacular for the Brewers today.

00:31Or excuse me, for the season.

00:33And I like the Brewers again today.

00:34I'll ride that streak.

00:36So, he was traded from Boston to Milwaukee in April of this season.

00:42You're thinking, okay, you're trading for a pitcher.

00:44Like, how good could he really be?

00:46Obviously, the Brewers didn't have a ton of pitching injuries at the start of the year.

00:49But you actually look at some of his numbers.

00:51And he doesn't shape up to be a dominant pitcher, quote-unquote,

00:55because he has a 19.7% strikeout rate.

00:58You're like, that's not like a 29% DeGrom-esque,

01:01she's going to shut you down, skiing, scoop-ball type of pitcher.

01:04But 19% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate, which isn't great.

01:08But a 57% ground ball rate and a 55% medium contact rate.

01:12He does not allow hard contact and does not allow flat balls,

01:15which means he can go out there and he can cruise through innings.

01:18Yeah, he walks someone and do this double play.

01:21Lows a hit, double play, and he gets out of innings quickly.

01:23And the Mets aren't hitting right now.

01:25So I do not see this as a high-scoring game.

01:27I like the under more than anything in this.

01:30Yeah, what's up with the Mets in the middle of that lineup?

01:32Last 30 days, Tom, just to get a snapshot.

01:34Pete Alonzo, 237 weighted on-base percentage against righties here.

01:37Brandon Nimmo, 291.

01:38Jeff McNeil, 242.

01:39Vientos, 269.

01:40And Cedric Mullins, 288.

01:42Like, you start off with Lindor and Soto,

01:43and then nobody can drive Lindor and Soto home

01:45if they are actually on-base at this point.

01:47By the way, Lindor and Soto, high K rates the past 30 days

01:50against right-handed pitching here.

01:51Crazy times for the Mets right now.

01:52Things just aren't clicking, whether it's starting pitching,

01:55bullpen, and or the lineup itself.

01:57Can they bounce back today?

01:58You might think so.

01:59Again, just looking at the name Quinn Priester,

02:01but that's not the case.

02:01He's been good here.

02:02That's roughly a pick-em today.

02:03I'm going to lean on the Milwaukee Brewers once again.

02:06Now, let's continue in that NLE's drive.

02:08The Philadelphia Phillies in first place by four and a half games.

02:11Looking to run away with this division before we get to September.

02:14We'll see if that happens.

02:15The Phillies knocked down last night.

02:16Jesus Lozardo, toe-to-toe with Jacob deGrom

02:18for another victory and some clutch hitting by the Phillies late

02:21and a bullpen that held it down.

02:22Today, they'll get Patrick Corbin.

02:24He's actually reinvented himself down there in Texas

02:26in the second half of the season as a quality pitcher,

02:28but the Phillies are going to be the favorite.

02:30It's Zach Wheeler versus Corbin, 235 start.

02:33The Phillies overnight opened up, Tom, let's call it minus 150.

02:35We're still in that range, minus 150s to minus 160s,

02:39depending where he's shopping at, a total of seven and a half.

02:41Before we break down the game, you see the name Zach Wheeler,

02:43like, ooh, I want to back that guy.

02:45But I'm always leery, Tom.

02:46If you're pushing back starts because of maybe a little bit of shoulder fatigue

02:51or shoulder impingement, no big deal.

02:53I just need a couple extra days here.

02:54They did this with him out of the all-star break.

02:56Didn't work all that well.

02:57They pushed him back again for Texas.

02:59How do we feel about Wheeler on the mound today?

03:02Can you trust him?

03:04I can trust him, but it's to a degree.

03:10And it really comes down to, you know, how would you be trusting him?

03:14Could you be trusting him for, you know, outs or strikeouts or quarter?

03:17As we spoke about last Sunday, Donnie, the Phillies were super heavy favorites,

03:20but you took whoever – Chris Sanchez was pitching last Sunday,

03:24and you took him for a win rather than the Phillies' money line.

03:27Correct.

03:27Which is something I would consider today because I don't want to go to the price

03:30where the Phillies are now.

03:31But if you can get a good price on Wheeler to record the win,

03:34that could be something.

03:35I know that that may not be fully correlated with, I said, you know,

03:37taking unders on him because he may not be going super deep in the game.

03:40But on the 27th of June – 27th of June, 27th of July, 103 pitches.

03:45On August 2nd, 98 pitches.

03:48So he's at least giving you length.

03:50And that length is more often than not very good with 8 and 10 strikeouts.

03:54So if he's in a spot to win the game, I would rather bet on his win odds

03:58rather than lay it.

03:59So I trust him if you were getting the right bet rather than going to the Phillies,

04:04even though the bullpen is fantastic now.

04:06I'd rather just take the best odds where I can get them.

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