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Brewers vs. Mets: Analytics Favor NY in Rubber Match
SportsGrid
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7/3/2025
Category
🥇
Sports
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00:00
So, the Mets tonight, DRS, as we look at it, home favorite, minus 162 against the Brew Crew over under at 8.
00:08
A quick three-game series with a doubleheader yesterday.
00:11
Who takes the rubber match?
00:13
There's no excuses here for the New York Mets not to win this baseball game because you're just looking at pure analytics.
00:18
You've got 19 pitchers on the card today with a minimum of 10 innings pitched over the past 45 days.
00:22
You know who's dead last in XFIP?
00:23
It's Jose Quintana on the mound.
00:25
It's a 137 XFIP minus, which, again, 100 is the baseline.
00:29
Below that is good for a pitcher.
00:31
Anything above that, you're not that good, and he's not that good.
00:34
An ERA of 4.15 and an XFIP number of 5.55.
00:37
You should hit just because he's that pitcher on the mound.
00:40
And why?
00:41
Because he doesn't strike anybody out, and he's susceptible to left-handed bats,
00:45
even though you're going to get a lot of right-handed batters, which is the anomaly you have to buy into.
00:49
Like, what do you trust more?
00:50
A veteran pitcher that doesn't give up hard contact and tries to keep the ball on the ground.
00:55
But you take a look at his last—because I'm going to bring up just his last, let's just say, 30 days for Quintana
00:59
against right-handed batters, which would be the focal point.
01:02
12% strikeout rate.
01:04
Walk rate, 13%.
01:05
That means the ball's going to be in play or he's going to get free walks here.
01:08
A 337 weighted on-base percentage, which is slightly above average.
01:11
It's up to the Mets' right-handed bats to control this game.
01:14
Peterson is a better pitcher than Quintana.
01:17
That is a heavy favorite for a reason.
01:19
The Mets should win this game.
01:21
But I always find myself, like, you know, Tyler Anderson for the Angels.
01:23
He's like, how did he get anybody out, and how did he go five innings pitch and no earned runs?
01:28
Other than those expectations, trusting the numbers, Quintana should get hit today,
01:32
and the Mets should be the better team.
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1:28
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