PGA Best Bets: FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview

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00:00Oh yeah, people. It's time to talk a little bit of golf right now.

00:03Why you say yourself, you know what? The majors are all done, but the money isn't done yet.

00:07And there's a lot of money to be had on the PGA Tour and a lot of topics to be discussed here.

00:11It's Donnie Wright's side. It is Joe Ranieri.

00:12Now we welcome in Keith Stewart, our resident PGA professional slash insider

00:18to give us the news and notes on all the latest.

00:20Keith, how's it going this morning? How are we feeling?

00:23Donnie, Joe, I mean, I'm feeling pretty good.

00:25You know, fortunately, I didn't make it out to Memphis this year where it's about 8,000 degrees,

00:30like the surface of the sun. So I'm enjoying the air conditioning right now.

00:34Keith, everybody is ready to go except for one person right now.

00:39And now before we even get to the tournament itself or how this lays out and how you can win it,

00:43a lot of talk about Rory saying, you know what? I don't need to be here based on the rules.

00:46I don't need to play this week. I'll see you at a later time.

00:49The PGA seems concerned by this and maybe a loophole that's changing.

00:52But explain to the people out there what's actually going on, what Rory is doing,

00:57and what the PGA Tour is actually concerned about.

01:00Well, what can get confusing, and this is a really good question,

01:02is that you advance in the playoffs for the FedEx Cup by points, by FedEx Cup points,

01:08not by your standing in the tournament.

01:10So the top 70 players on the points list got in this week to Memphis to the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

01:16Next week, it is not the top 50 finishers. It is the top 50 point getters.

01:20Well, with Rory with three wins on tour, I mean, he doesn't really have to show up until Atlanta

01:25in the Tour Championship. So, I mean, this isn't the first thing that's been flawed on the PGA Tour schedule.

01:31And, I mean, there's an easy fix for this. Just take the top 50 guys that finished this week.

01:35I mean, it would be pretty cool to have a playoff, like, six guys tied for that 50th spot,

01:40and we're only taking one. You know, like, there's ways to build up the drama here and everything.

01:44But I digress. Rory, the usual, the drama, everything else. He's not here. You know,

01:50it's all about me. But let's talk about the other 69 guys.

01:55Yeah, well, we got a few of them here. And, of course, we'll give everyone at home three guesses

02:00as to who the favorite is to win this week there. But, I mean, Keith, and deservedly so.

02:06I think that maybe is the best part. It's not like the books are going over the top trying to put...

02:13Scotty Sheffler deserves to be a two- to three-to-one favorite, and he keeps proving it all the time.

02:19Joe, you're absolutely correct. I mean, look at the way he boat raced everybody at the last major

02:23championship. He's won two of four this year. He's won multiple times. He's won a bunch of times on

02:28the PGA Tour. You know, a lot of people maybe aren't familiar with this that are watching right now,

02:32but there are markets out there that you can bet without Scotty. Now,

02:35you're going to take a hit on the overall outright odds. But you know what? I like Matt Fitzpatrick

02:41this week, right? He's 28-1 with Scotty in the field, but he's 22-1 with Scotty not in the field.

02:47Well, guess what? You know, Dottie could come up with 10 wins on a Sunday on the NFL, right? And

02:52he's still not going to get 22-1. If Matt wins this week on Sunday, you get the four-day lottery. So,

02:57for me, I think people, sometimes they're like, oh, I'm not getting the number I want. How about just a

03:02nice big number on golf? And picking somebody that if they finish first or second behind Scotty,

03:08you still get the victory. Let's take a look at this golf course here as it plays out. The FedEx

03:12St. Jude Championship here. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, about 7,300 yards out here.

03:17Big purse, as we know. That's why these guys are playing. Give us a look at how this course is going

03:22to play out and some of those keys that we can use on some of these individuals.

03:26Donnie, before I drop the keys, let's just talk real quick. Last year, after the tournament was

03:31over, they did a complete renovation of the golf course. All 18 greens would have been re-grassed.

03:36They did a little bit of manipulation, and they added some size to the green surfaces. They used

03:40to be about 4,300 square feet on average. They're 4,500 square feet on average. Now, some people think

03:45that makes it, you know, easier, but I actually think that makes it harder at the tour level because

03:50that gives those tournament officials the opportunity to tuck more pins, which makes, you know,

03:55these guys always fire at them, so they short-side themselves. So, the first key of the week has

03:59got to be approach play. We have zoysia grass in the fairways, and the ball's going to sit up. If

04:04you are a great ball striker on approach, anywhere from 150 to 175 yards, that's your sweet spot.

04:10Those are the guys. The second key is that with brand new greens, and we've seen this before,

04:14when they're immature, they're super firm, they're super bouncy. Memphis or TPC Southwind,

04:19where we are this week, is not a big short game, you know, need skill set type golf course. So,

04:26what I think you need to do is you're going to get some bad bounces this week over these greens,

04:30and you're going to need to be savvy with your short game to save a couple pars down the stretch,

04:34especially for the contenders. I would throw that in the mix. And the third thing is that,

04:39you know, we're back on Bermuda grass again. So, those Bermuda grass putters, you got to make

04:42some putts. Average winning score here, since they went to a WGC at a playoff event, is about 15-16

04:48under par. So, you're going to have to make some subpar scores. Is it me, Keith, or does it feel

04:54like forever since we've had eight under win a golf tournament? Like, my goodness. It's like,

04:59are we only getting that in majors now? Is everything 15, 20, 23 under par? Do you think

05:06right around that number is what we're going to be looking at this week as well with the weather?

05:10Well, Joe, you know, they call it TPC Southwind, and they're not looking at much wind this week.

05:16It's going to be hot. It's going to be humid. The ball is going to be flying. This thing is a

05:20fader's paradise. Aim down the left-hand side. Let it bleed back to the right. Guys like Wyndham,

05:25Clark, Scotty, that all play a fade. You know, the top 10 last year, eight of those guys predominantly

05:29play a fade off the tee for a right-hander, left to right ball flight. I mean, these guys are just

05:33going to be bombing away and attacking with a wedge. So, yes, there's going to be scoring. I don't think

05:39there's anything you can do in any of these playoff events. I mean, the place is going to

05:43play pretty firm this week, and they're still going to get to the mid-teens. I mean, I don't

05:49know where I've heard this before, Joe, but these guys are good. You know, like, there's just no way

05:55to stop them. Yes, and taking a look at some of these players that are going to play this weekend

06:00again in the playoffs. Playoffs? Yeah, it's the playoffs on the PGA. Scotty Sheff was a plus 280

06:05price. Where is those early leans on the early line that we need, Keith? Well, I mentioned one

06:10of the guys earlier, but I love me a little bit of Fitzmagic. Matthew Fitzpatrick, he's got four

06:15straight top eight finishes on the PGA Tour. Now, if you like him in the full, you know, with Scotty

06:20in the field, he's right around 2,800, 2,200 without, you know, his short game, top five in the field,

06:27and the approach game, off the tee, and he has a couple, you know, nice top 15 finishes here at

06:33Southwind before. The second guy, how about the Septic Tank, boys? I'm going deep with Sepp

06:38Straka, all right? He's 50-1 when you're looking at the full board, 40-1 or so, maybe dropping even

06:44more so, but this guy is the king of Zoysia Grass, and I mentioned that earlier, but these are Zoysia

06:50fairways. The ball sits up. Every time he plays on Zoysia Grass, he tends to really, really pop on

06:55approach, and you need that factor here. He was a runner-up in 2022, lost in a playoff to Will

07:00Zalatouris, and he's got a great comp win at PGA National. Fantastic information from Keith

07:06Stewart. Sports Grid's finest right here, breaking down all the information you need to know on the

07:10PGA Tour, including the Tour Championship, and looking forward to the Ryder Cup. Thank you,

07:15Keith, for joining us this Wednesday morning.

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