What Makes the 18th Sanctions Significant?

What makes the 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia so significant compared to the 17 before? Analyst John Kavulich explains.

Transcript

00:00This is one of the strongest sanctioned packages to date.

00:04Now, based on your analysis, what do you think actually stands out in this 18th round?

00:08What makes it so significant compared to the 17 before?

00:11I'm not sure I share the exuberance of the EU foreign policy chief,

00:16because if you look back at the previous 17 over four years, so basically less than five a year,

00:23after each one, you had officials in Brussels say that this was it.

00:29This would be the one.

00:31This would be the totality of sanctions that would stop Russia from attacking Ukraine.

00:39And of course, it hasn't worked.

00:41It's important to remember that when the sanctions first started,

00:45the goal was not to do damage to the European Union first and then do damage to Russia,

00:52because the European Union was integrated with Russia, specifically with energy.

00:57So it was, hey, we can't do too much too quickly because consumers are going to get hurt.

01:04Voters are going to get hurt.

01:05Taxpayers are going to get hurt.

01:06So over time, as Russia's integration with the EU has lessened,

01:13the sanctions have ramped up in terms of what they're doing toward Russia.

01:17And they have sequentially done more to impact Russia.

01:25However, Russia has continued to adapt as countries under sanctions do.

01:30So the, you know, where where you would look at this 18 sanctions package and look at the vessels

01:36where you're not just going after the vessels, you're going after the crew.

01:39Look at going after the Rossfeldt, the Russian oil company refinery in India and India being a huge purchaser of Russia energy products.

01:51I mean, those are all optically very good.

01:54But in the end, we have two, two big, big challenges.

02:01And that is, if you look at the trajectory of what Russia is looking to do in Ukraine,

02:08they're nearing what could be the end of their objectives, meaning the final portions of Donetsk and Luhansk,

02:17the Donbass area, solidifying at the borders, the remaining territory, and then sort of call it a day.

02:26And that's where you have these sanctions then questionably doing real harm to Russia.