Guardians vs. Cubs Preview: Game Insight & Odds Update

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00:00Today the Guardians head to the friendly confines to take on the Cubbies

00:03where Matthew Boyd and the Cubs have the favorites minus 180.

00:07Total is 8. What's the play today in Wrigley?

00:11Yeah, right around 80 degree temperatures.

00:12Now the wind is blowing in, but when we say blowing in,

00:153 to 4 miles per hour, not really going to have an impact on this game.

00:18Gavin Williams is an interesting one to sort of fade

00:20because on the card over the past 45 days, if you just look today,

00:2327 total pitchers, Ben, he's 24th on the card with an exit of 4.81,

00:27but his ERA is 3.03. Exit minus is higher.

00:32So you say sooner than later, he should get hit.

00:34Why does he survive? Well, he's not a great strikeout pitcher.

00:36It does walk too many guys, which means ball is in play

00:39and you're offering free pass is never a good thing.

00:41But how does he escape those things? He's a ground ball pitcher.

00:4457% of the 117 at-bats he face, Ben, all were ground balls.

00:49So if you're not hitting the ball in the air at Wrigley,

00:51good things tend to happen for you and your defense, which includes double plays.

00:54But you also are looking at that Cubs lineup

00:56that has done very well against right-handed pitching,

00:58specifically with the first five guys in the lineup.

01:00Hap, Tucker, Suzuki, and Armstrong.

01:02Great ISOs, great weighted on base percentages here.

01:04And also including Michael Bush with a .379 ISO

01:07over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching.

01:10Boyd has been a solid pitcher this year, not spectacular,

01:13but we just look at that Guardians lineup and say,

01:15boy, that's just not the lineup that we thought it was going to be

01:17at the beginning of the season.

01:18The trust level for me, much, much more on the Cubs.

01:21So instead of saying, I want to lay like the minus 175 or higher,

01:24whatever it might be at game time here,

01:26a couple of RBI props to start that lineup make a lot of sense here.

01:29If you're just trying to zero in at the best of the number,

01:31if I just go Hap and also Tucker, one and two in that lineup

01:35with the high ISOs and weighted on base percentages,

01:37chance for a home run, chance for an RBI, very high from those two guys.

01:41Like Pete Crow Armstrong, like Bush, but if I'm just picking two,

01:44I'm going one, two.

01:44Give me as many at-bats as I possibly can get.

01:47One of those guys will get an RBI tonight.