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00:00Welcome to hour number two live right here on this Wednesday on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:06He is Donnie Wright's side. I am Ben Stevens. It is our second hour. It is the second day of July.
00:12And as we celebrated yesterday, it is a month of football. And in these days leading into the 4th of July weekend,
00:20we get you ready with a football state of mind and a football focus division by division each and every day
00:28leading into Friday here on the early line. Yesterday, three divisions around the AFC, AFC North, AFC East, AFC South.
00:37We will wrap up the conference with the AFC West here in just a matter of moments and embark on the NFC as well here in hour number two, DRS.
00:47Yeah, good stuff here talking football as we get ready for training camps.
00:50We all have to love that 4th of July weekend coming up next week.
00:53We get into the grind days of July, the dog days of summer getting here.
00:58The MLB all-star break. Football is going to carry us along, even if you're talking Patrick Mahomes or maybe DJ Lagway.
01:05You never know.
01:07Whoa, what do you mean, DJ Lagway?
01:09Yeah.
01:10What are you talking about, DJ Lagway?
01:11Some people got DJ Lagway on their mind right now. Is he better than Arch? You know what I mean?
01:15Come on. It's a lot of competition out there for the eyeballs now in the football season.
01:19Bank, college football, professional football, they're going to start to collide pretty soon.
01:24I'm hoping DJ Lagway is pretty darn good.
01:27It's one of the reasons, DRS, that my first win total bet in any level of football, collegiately or in the NFL, was on Florida.
01:35We need that one.
01:37On Florida, over six and a half.
01:39That number now seven and a half with some juice on the under.
01:43The Gators have the most difficult schedule in all of college football, including the ESPN's Football Power Index.
01:50We are hoping that DJ Lagway can persevere through it.
01:54Was it Lisey Guy or was it Kevin Walsh?
01:57That's pretty fired up by the Gators signal caller.
02:00I don't know. I was looking there.
02:00You know, you got the Long Island game.
02:02Then you got another cupcake in South Florida.
02:04Then you go down September 13th at night.
02:07Death Valley to take on LSU.
02:09LSU, Nussmeyer matchup going right head-to-head with Lagway.
02:13I mean, that could be a Heisman Trophy elimination game, Ben, right off the bat in September.
02:19I mean, come on now.
02:20We're having fun with football now.
02:21Come on. Let's go.
02:23Sometimes DRS will surprise me.
02:25He starts talking about college football.
02:27He's got a preview magazine he just started to read.
02:30I love it, DRS.
02:31I do love it.
02:32We'll talk about the National Football League now, though, as we continue to go division by division.
02:37And we focus on our final of four within the AFC.
02:42It is a division.
02:43The Kansas City Chiefs have absolutely dominated for the last decade, make it nine consecutive years.
02:50The Chiefs have won the AFC West divisional crown, hoping to make it a perfect 10 in a row.
02:57The Chiefs are booked as a favorite, slightly in minus money at minus 115, deservingly so.
03:04But DRS, there is an idea, and there's been a little bit of a speckle of an idea that perhaps the last few years, KC could be knocked off its perch.
03:13It has not happened yet in the AFC West.
03:16But with the Chargers, an 11-win football team, and year number one under Jim Harbaugh last year in L.A., making the postseason.
03:23The Broncos, a double-digit win football team in year number two under Sean Payton, with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, making the postseason that those two teams continuing to improve this year might put a scare in Kansas City.
03:38How do you evaluate those AFC West odds, knowing how dominant the Chiefs have been within the division?
03:43Getting ready for the Chiefs to be cheap as the leaders, that's what you're getting now.
03:48Because, look, I don't have the exact statistics or numbers over the past, let's just say, five years.
03:52But I don't think we ever see the Chiefs at a minus 115 price entering in the season with Andy Reid and also Patrick Mahomes healthy to start the NFL season, which they always are there and ready to go.
04:02But understand this, too.
04:03It used to be in the past, like, again, sometimes just a product of your division.
04:07Why were the New England Patriots so strong, you know, in the East?
04:11It's because when the season started, they had five automatic victories to start the season because of how bad that division was.
04:17That is a massive layup for the rest of the season to say, oh, they keep winding up with a one or two seed, which back in the day gave you a bye week there, and that's an added advantage.
04:25The Kansas City Chiefs for the past couple years, to me, had that added advantage.
04:28You have five free wins in that division.
04:30That's no longer the case anymore.
04:32Look at them now, like the Chargers.
04:33You're not just going to go into Los Angeles with an easy victory and take over that building there.
04:37That's going to be a fight.
04:38The Denver Broncos have shown you now they're looking to take that next step, which means we think we can win this division.
04:45And then say what you want about the Raiders, which I'm not high on the Vegas Raiders this year.
04:48We have a veteran quarterback and a veteran head coach where the expectations with Tom Brady are in town.
04:53Let's make our football team better.
04:55So it's no longer a layup that you just go to Vegas and handle business, or when Vegas comes to town, you easily walk over them.
05:01That's what I'm worried about.
05:02I'm not worried about the Chiefs being a good team because I really like that wide receiver core this year.
05:05Where they showed signs of taking that next step last year, you know, Hollywood Brown, you get Rasheed Rice back into the fold.
05:10I like all of that stuff.
05:12But the things I used to love about the Chiefs were the easy division, no longer the case.
05:17They're going to have to earn their stripes this year in that division alone, Ben.
05:21There is no doubt about it, DRS, but it's almost kind of crazy to see a team that has won a division nine consecutive seasons and only be favored at a minus 115 price.
05:31I will say, you saw the schedule there for Kansas City.
05:35It is by far the most difficult out of the four teams within the AFC West.
05:40In fact, it is the sixth hardest schedule around the National Football League this year based on the projected win total of their opponents.
05:47Not just a more difficult division against the Bolts, Broncos, and Raiders.
05:52But when you are Kansas City and you're Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey, and you have been the divisional champ, you're not only playing a first place schedule each and every year, DRS.
06:03You're also that team that plays more primetime games, perhaps, or more notable standalone games than any other around the National Football League.
06:12I still think the Chiefs are going to win this division for a 10th consecutive season, despite the fact that I do believe, ultimately, the Chargers are going to be a playoff team.
06:22We'll see about Denver in just a matter of moments.
06:25Patrick Mahomes has been the starting quarterback in KC now for seven years.
06:31All seven years, the Chiefs have played in an AFC championship game.
06:35Six of those seven, they have hosted an AFC championship game, and in his seven seasons, DRS, as the starting quarterback when he has started the game, Mahomes is 35-5 against the AFC West.
06:50I understand we are always looking for something new.
06:54I understand that you are getting plus money prices on LA and Denver.
06:59But until I see that change, I am not going to bet it.
07:03I think KC wins the AFC West for 10 consecutive seasons.
07:08Yeah, and you can't falter for that.
07:10Number one, their favorite.
07:11Number two, you're right.
07:12Like, I used to come on this show for the last, what, year and a half saying, hey, you got Andy Reid there?
07:15You got Patrick Mahomes?
07:16Yeah, we're all good.
07:17Don't worry about anything else.
07:18But this now is a revamped team.
07:20Reworked that offensive line here.
07:22The defense, you know, is always going to be solid, regardless of personnel, under Steve Spagnuolo.
07:26But I hope the fact that we get to see that Patrick Mahomes of a couple years ago, let's bring that gunslinger mentality back.
07:31Because it felt like for a while, Ben, it's like, hey, boring Chiefs team.
07:34We don't have the explosive plays.
07:36We'll lean on our defense.
07:36And Mahomes will make just enough plays here.
07:38I want to see them get back to that jetpack like they had with Tyree Kill.
07:41Like, we are going to hit you up three plays, 62 yards, and a touchdown right off the bat.
07:45I'm not saying they can do that because Tyree Kill is one of one here at wide receiver.
07:49But the fact that you have a lot of speed out there that's been in the system for over a year, we should see a more wide-open offense for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
07:56And that should be a good thing here.
07:58Because how many Chiefs replays did we watch?
08:00Hey, Chiefs get up six points, slow the game down.
08:02Like, no, hit that gas pedal with a chance to do it.
08:05And maybe just the pressure of a better division around them, Ben, adds more urgency on a game-to-game basis where you can't just get up 13 points in the Broncos in the second quarter.
08:13Like, this team can't come back.
08:15This division can now come back.
08:16They're talented across the board.
08:19Yeah, no doubt about it, DRS.
08:20And we will talk about the Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders on the other side of the break.
08:26Can LA replicate its success in its debut year under Jim Harbaugh?
08:31Can they take another step to being a conference contender and finally winning a playoff game for the first time in Justin Herbert's career?
08:38What does Bo Nix do for an encore in his sophomore season in the national football?
08:43Follow that up next.
08:45Division by division all week long around the National Football League now in this football month of July to get you ready for a new year in the NFL.
08:55The Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West nine consecutive seasons.
09:00Will it be a tenth?
09:01I believe so.
09:02I still think Donnie believes they deserve to be the favorite as well.
09:06But they're not just walking to divisional crown number ten consecutively because of the improvement in this division.
09:14Last year, DRS, year number one of the Jim Harbaugh era in Los Angeles.
09:18And the Chargers were great from the very start.
09:21They established the run.
09:22They took the pressure off Justin Herbert.
09:24The defense was playing lights out.
09:27The Bolts won 11 games.
09:28And then later in the year, the Chargers started to build back offensively.
09:32And we saw what Justin Herbert was capable of in his fifth National Football League season.
09:38And yet, they were a road favorite, laying two and a half points in Houston against the Texans and came up on the losing end.
09:46Herbert still awaiting playoff victory number one in his NFL career.
09:50But to win a playoff game, you got to get back to the postseason.
09:54What is your outlook on the Bolts entering 2025?
09:56Yeah, I like the Bolts.
09:59A lot of people out there also.
10:00Like, the sexy picks, it feels like, are in Los Angeles this year, Ben, right?
10:03The NFC side.
10:04You got the Rams.
10:05Like, hey, man, intriguing the way they ended the season.
10:08Maybe if, you know, a certain player named Jalen Carr doesn't break through the line,
10:11they actually can advance an NFC championship game and win a Super Bowl.
10:14But also from a Chargers perspective, expectations have to be realized sooner than later.
10:19We understand Harbaugh's a really good coach laying that foundation of toughness.
10:22That's a big, nasty offensive line.
10:25So, what do you do?
10:25You go in the draft.
10:26You get a really good running back in Hampton.
10:28You get Najee Harris.
10:30So, you know, Harbaugh's like, I'm set in the backfield.
10:32I have my quarterback of the future.
10:34And also, I need some wide receivers.
10:36Welcome back, Mike Williams.
10:37Now, Quinton Johnson, I don't think he's ever going to amount to much in the NFL.
10:40But you're not relying on him.
10:41Whatever he gives you or whatever catches he can actually make are going to be a positive.
10:45Lad McConkie was fantastic last year, looking to take that next step this year.
10:49It's almost like saying, Ben, there's not a lot not to like for the Chargers here.
10:53But again, expectations have to be realized once they get to the field.
10:57There's no reason to believe, like, the Chargers lining up against the Chiefs.
11:00The Chargers should be like, hey, you know what?
11:01We feel we're the better football team here, at least mindset-wise.
11:04They have all the pieces of the puzzle.
11:06But so many times in the past, what did we get upset with the Chargers?
11:09They just weren't mentally tough to overcome those obstacles and always faded late in the
11:14season, regardless of who their head coach was.
11:16This new head coach in Harbaugh is supposed to sort of delay those tendencies and say,
11:20no, no, no, 14-14 late in the third quarter.
11:23This is our game.
11:24Let's go ahead and close this one out.
11:26No excuses for the Chargers this year.
11:28This isn't a, hey, I can't believe they won the division.
11:31No, the expectations are, Ben, they should win this division.
11:34They're talented enough.
11:35Love what they did drafting Amari on Hampton.
11:38You add in Najee Harris.
11:40That's a great backfield for Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to work around.
11:44Ladd McConkie is clearly Justin Herbert's guy, but they also drafted Trey Harris out of
11:50Ole Miss, who was sensational last year before injuries crept up.
11:54I think he is talented.
11:56The offensive line is great.
11:58They add in the large Makai Becton along the left side or the right side of that offensive
12:03line.
12:03DRS, it's almost rinse and repeat for the Bolts this year, where I do believe double
12:08digit wins is their outlook.
12:10The Chargers' win total, not seven and a half.
12:13It's nine and a half.
12:14A little bit more juice on the under at minus 120, but I do think LA is going to sky over
12:20that and be a playoff team.
12:22Donnie, seven teams right now around the AFC with a minus money price, ever so slightly
12:27favored to get to the AFC postseason.
12:30Of course, seven teams now qualify for the playoffs in each conference, our four divisional
12:35champs and three wildcard teams.
12:37Sixth best price, Los Angeles.
12:40Seventh best number in minus money, that being the Denver Broncos, who we did not think would
12:45win 10 games in Bo Nix's rookie year and year number two in mile high under Sean Payton.
12:51Their preseason win total, five and a half.
12:54They skied over that.
12:56So how do they replicate success in Bo Nix's second season in the NFL in 2025?
13:02That's why you have a great coach in Sean Payton, right?
13:04This is taking the next evolution, understanding and identifying the quarterback that you want
13:08in the draft and seeing it through here and teaching the kid how to play football the
13:12right way.
13:12But also while making mistakes, still learning on the fly.
13:15They were good last year.
13:16The next steps would be, hey, you know what?
13:18Let's go toe to toe with Kansas City again.
13:20Let's battle with the Chargers.
13:21I don't think the expectations for me for the Denver Broncos are we got to win this division
13:25and we didn't take a step forward.
13:26That's not the case because that's a very tough division.
13:29But the next steps for Bo Nix, what are they?
13:31Do we regress from last year?
13:33Which we do see some rookies who have a lot of success because I always say in every show
13:37I go on Ben, defensive coordinators are some of the smartest people on the planet.
13:40They have an entire sheet of film to watch on you in the offseason and say, you know what?
13:44He don't like to throw that 10 yard out.
13:46He doesn't like to throw the football over the middle into quick windows here.
13:49They'll understand that.
13:50But again, having Sean Payton as your coach, that's going to help some of those deficiencies.
13:54Mims Jr., Vey, Sutton, love the fact that what they have there at wide receiver, a good
13:58young, talented crew, some intriguing running backs that we can look at.
14:01But more importantly, that defense can get after it.
14:04They got some pass rushers, one of the best cornerbacks in football in Sertan.
14:07So watch out for the Denver Broncos.
14:09But I don't want to feel like I'm saying it's boom or bust for them this year.
14:13They got to get to the playoffs.
14:14They got to win a playoff game.
14:15They got to win the division.
14:17Sometimes you have to take those steps forward and they can take another step forward on
14:20a week-to-week basis.
14:21That's not a team you're fading the Denver Broncos, man.
14:23They're going to be ready day number one.
14:25No doubt about it.
14:26And last year, DRS, to start off Bo Nix's rookie campaign, they were booked as an underdog.
14:31Often they were pulling off upsets and winning outright.
14:35This year, they're not going to be an underdog for a majority of their schedule.
14:39When you look at the strength of schedule around the AFC West, we mentioned the Chiefs have
14:44the hardest schedule in this division.
14:46Broncos, the easiest, the Chargers just behind.
14:49In fact, Denver is the largest favorite for the week one slate.
14:54They are a full touchdown favorite at home at altitude against the Tennessee Titans.
14:59Again, the weight of expectation.
15:01The Broncos win total also nine and a half with some juice on the under.
15:06But a minus 114 price for Denver and Bo Nix to get back to the playoffs.
15:11DRS, the Las Vegas Raiders will be an interesting team.
15:15Pete Carroll was a surprising hire as the head coach.
15:18You trade for Geno Smith.
15:20You have often said you like the moves Las Vegas made this offseason for stability, for a
15:26foundation in this rocky franchise.
15:28How many wins does it result in this year for Vegas?
15:31I don't know.
15:33Look, the problem here with me with Vegas is what are we judging them on this year?
15:38Because they're not going to win anything.
15:40You didn't find your future quarterback.
15:42But there is something to be said about we are so far rudderless in this organization.
15:46It would be nice just to be competent on a week-to-week basis.
15:49You're going to get that.
15:50But I don't know if you sort of set back your future by saying welcome in Geno Smith as
15:54opposed to tanking and finally getting that quarterback of the future, which they've been waiting
15:58for for a long time.
15:59We'll have one more point on the AFC West before getting to the NFC.
16:04Next.
16:05We continue to go division by division.
16:08About to be in the NFC, starting with the NFC West, what should be one of the most competitive
16:13divisions in all of football in 2025.
16:16One final point on the Las Vegas Raiders, the RS, and the AFC West.
16:20Of course, the acquisition and the trade for Geno Smith.
16:24Pete Carroll is the new head coach.
16:26They know each other from their time together in Seattle.
16:28They draft Ashton Gentry, sixth overall.
16:31He's the favorite to be offensive rookie of the year in the NFL.
16:35And they had a rookie record setter last year in the tight end, Brock Bowers.
16:39They bring back Max Crosby.
16:41They pay him a ton.
16:42Christian Wilkins, who was acquired last offseason.
16:46Now, I'm not thinking the Raiders are a nine or ten win football team or a playoff contender,
16:51but I don't think Las Vegas is a doormat in this division in the AFC West.
16:56And that stability with Pete Carroll at the helm and Geno Smith as the signal caller, I think, is certainly there in Sin City.
17:03And by the way, I think their defense stinks overall.
17:06We love Max Crosby.
17:07The guy can really get after the pass.
17:08But here's why I'm talking about that, where you say maybe Donnie doesn't want to bet them season-long win totals
17:13or to take them on a game-to-game basis to cover the point spread.
17:16But do we also forget, like, Chip Kelly's coming back to the NFL.
17:19Maybe you don't like him as a head coach, but the guy knows offense here.
17:22And I'm intrigued to see what that offense is going to do.
17:25Are we running at tempo?
17:26That could be fantastic.
17:27It may be one of those things, Ben, that gets corrected early in September,
17:31where maybe their team totals or game totals are a little bit low
17:33because we don't know what to anticipate out of Chip Kelly.
17:36But the one thing we do know is he knows his way around.
17:39He'll get them in the right spots here.
17:40Brock Bowers is a wonderful tight end.
17:42Geno Smith's a veteran quarterback, and they have an electric running back.
17:45Maybe we get some surprise team totals early from the Raiders.
17:49I like that point, DRS.
17:50It will be one way to bet the Raiders each and every week all year long.
17:54And they're good up front defensively.
17:57They did add Jermaine Pratt, who, of course, was released by the Bengals,
18:01despite being Cincy's leading tackler each of the past two years
18:04earlier in the offseason.
18:07Again, a 10-win football team and a playoff team?
18:10Probably not.
18:11There was always one surprise team we did not expect.
18:13But maybe six, seven wins.
18:15Win total for Las Vegas, seven and a half.
18:18The under has a hefty bit of juice at minus 160.
18:20But I think they're going to be a competitive thorn in the side of many,
18:24certainly within the division of the AFC West.
18:27All right.
18:28All four divisions around the AFC now in the books.
18:31For our divisional preview this week, let's head over to the other conference.
18:34But we stay on the West Coast.
18:37The NFC West, DRS.
18:39Where this division, when you look at some of the divisional prices,
18:43win totals, and conference championship odds, incredibly intriguing.
18:47The 49ers, now the shortest price ever so slightly by a dime.
18:5310 cents in front of the Rams to win the divisional crown.
18:57Plus 165 for San Francisco.
19:00Plus 175 for LA.
19:03They are the reigning NFC West champions.
19:05And the Cardinals and the Seahawks both have win totals at seven and a half
19:09or eight and a half.
19:12The floor, the basement of this division is not all that far down.
19:16How do you evaluate those odds around the NFC West?
19:20Yeah, it's interesting to see what we'll get out of Seattle.
19:22Like, do we have just one of those years that got really lucky on a quarterback
19:25in Sam Darnold in Minnesota playing with a great offensive coordinator,
19:28a great, you know, wide receiver set, and had the perfect situation.
19:31Now he's going to go off to the Pacific Northwest where maybe that situation
19:34is so great.
19:35Arizona Card, there's a little bit of intrigue there, right?
19:37Because you got a team that looks like they're on the come up here,
19:39stacking more talent, gaining with another year.
19:41But those aren't the focal points here.
19:43It's the two teams in the state of California.
19:45It's the 49ers, and it's the Rams.
19:47But honestly, like, there's a lot of question marks with the San Francisco 49ers, Ben,
19:51that we didn't have in the past couple years.
19:53Like, hey, Christian McCaffrey's healthy.
19:55Yeah, but this time, how for long?
19:57You take a look at the wide receiving court.
19:59No longer Debo Samuel is there.
20:00And some people say, oh, it's good to get him out of San Francisco.
20:02We'll see.
20:03But Brandon Ayuk was on a path to stardom.
20:06He had a devastating knee injury.
20:07We'll see what we get out of him.
20:08Yeah, sure, Jennings stepped up, and you still have George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall.
20:12You're looking to take that next step.
20:13I get it, but also the one constant on that football team was you are going to get a kick-ass
20:18defense, a lot of changing parts, getting a little bit older at this point.
20:22Can you still trust on the San Francisco 49ers to be dominant on defense, which was really
20:27their calling card outside of Kyle Shanahan calling plays and dialing them up for Brock
20:30Purdy.
20:31And also with Brock Purdy, Ben, right?
20:33The expectations of, hey, cute little kid out there, quarterback making a million bucks.
20:37He's a $50 million man expected to deliver, where two years ago, I'm going to have higher
20:42thought processes on the 49ers than I do now.
20:45A quality football team, but way more questions to answer than I want to start an NFL season,
20:51Ben.
20:51It's a really good point, DRS, and we're not just talking 50 mil for Brock Purdy.
20:57Of course, we are talking 55 mil for Brock Purdy.
21:01How does that change San Francisco's outlook, not only with the expectation and pressure
21:06on their starting quarterback, but also what they're able to do?
21:10It's one of the reasons, DRS, is we'll focus on the Niners and the rest of the division.
21:14On the other side of the break, the defensive depth chart for San Francisco looks a little
21:20bit different, especially up front in 2025.
21:23The NFC West in four.
21:25Next, division by division, where they focus right now on our first of four in the NFC.
21:31It's the NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers.
21:34A dismal and disappointing 2024 campaign following a run to a second Super Bowl in five years.
21:42And DRS, from an odds perspective, the Niners have been an odds darling for the last half
21:47decade.
21:48Last year, though, significant injuries, one of the main reasons that San Francisco never
21:52amounted to those sky-high expectations in just a six-win season.
21:58Some reshuffling on the roster because when you have to pay your quarterback in Brock Purdy,
22:03who you were getting on the cheap and a large discount in the first three years of his NFL
22:08career, you're going to have to move some things around.
22:11Javon Hargrave, Javon Kinlaw, no longer there up front.
22:15Nick Bosa remains on the defense, as does Fred Warner, who was extended this offseason.
22:21George Kittle and Brock Purdy, both receiving those large contract extensions and new deals
22:26as well.
22:27We'll see about Brendan Ayuk when he comes back, suffering a torn ACL last season.
22:33Can Ricky Pearsall find his groove now in the NFL in year number two?
22:39And can Christian McCaffrey, dealing with Achilles tendonitis in both legs a season ago,
22:44get back to the health we had seen in his first year and a half or so with the 49ers?
22:50I ask you the question this way, DRS.
22:53Obviously, you can't turn off injuries, especially in the NFL.
22:56But if the 49ers remain relatively healthy throughout 2025, how high is their ceiling
23:02once again by the bet?
23:04Always going to be high.
23:05Like, I love their head coach.
23:06I think he's a top three play caller in the NFL, to be honest.
23:09And if you're going to be putting Brock Purdy in good situations with talent around them
23:12and a really healthy running back court, because the calling card, it always felt for me,
23:16the 49ers, wasn't like, yeah, Shanahan dials up killer plays out there where guys are running
23:20wide open.
23:21It was the home run threat at the running back position, which was like, wow, they're one
23:24of the few teams in the NFL that uses explosive plays in the run game and consistently doing
23:28that with basically track stars.
23:30And when McCaffrey came over from the Carolina Panthers, they sort of, you know, up that another
23:34level.
23:35Like, wait a second, this offense, everybody's running wide open and a running back.
23:38I just can't stop both in the backfield catching, excuse me, in the backfield running
23:41and also catching passes.
23:43It feels like this season really sets up, which it's crazy to talk about this in the
23:47NFL.
23:47Like, well, how good is your running game?
23:49Like Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia or Derrick Henry in Baltimore.
23:52It's equally important.
23:53Like you tell me McCaffrey, and I don't even know for the entirety of the season, Ben, just
23:57give me September, right?
23:58To sort of evaluate this.
23:59Whoa, McCaffrey looks like he hasn't lost a step.
24:02Like the Niners will be back.
24:03Like that is such an unbelievable weapon to have, which opens everything up in the play
24:08action pass.
24:09And we're not worried about Brock Purdy.
24:10Like, hey, you know what?
24:11Flukier one, Flukier two.
24:12Like the guy's a legitimately good starter in the NFL.
24:15Now, compensation wise, is he worth the 55 million?
24:18We'll find out.
24:19But I just feel like this season goes as McCaffrey goes, which is easy to say.
24:23Like, yeah, McCaffrey gets injured.
24:24They won't be as good.
24:25Of course, that's the case.
24:26But if we get a glimpse of what we had with McCaffrey on the 49ers a year and a half ago,
24:31this might open up some eyes and open up some eyes early in the season for me, Ben, on
24:35the 49ers.
24:36CMC, of course, DRS in his final two years, his final two full years in Carolina played
24:42a total of 10 games.
24:44It's when the injury bug started to creep into the conversation around McCaffrey and where
24:49he stood in the NFL.
24:50But when he was traded by the Panthers midway through 2022, he had largely played in basically
24:56every game, including those ones of high importance like NFC championships and Super Bowls for San
25:04Francisco.
25:04Prior to last season, it was the 49ers reaching the NFC title game four of the last five years.
25:11Of course, last year, McCaffrey only played four games and San Francisco only won six.
25:17So DRS, of course, that ceiling is high if the 49ers can remain relatively healthy.
25:22But I ask you this, would you bet the 49ers to win the division or the reigning champs in
25:28the L.A. Rams at a plus 170 price?
25:31A lot of high hopes in the City of Angels for Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and the Rams entering
25:362025.
25:38Yeah, that's an interesting one, which is why they're priced so appropriately.
25:41They're plus 165 and also like a little bit.
25:43It was a plus plus 165.
25:45Excuse me.
25:45And plus 175.
25:46Take a look at the lineup.
25:47But here's the issue I have, though.
25:49Are we falling in love a little bit too much with the Rams?
25:52Because it's a really good team.
25:54The defense is set.
25:55I love that front seven and linebacking core.
25:57It's young.
25:57It gets after the quarterback, and that's always the building block and a foundation of that
26:01defense.
26:02Sean McVay is a fantastic head coach.
26:03He's already won a Super Bowl, and he won that Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford.
26:07Like, hey, ring chase with Stafford.
26:08It hasn't gotten it done.
26:09No, he has gotten it done.
26:11You look at the wide receiver position, like Puka Nakua, I think is going to be unbelievable this
26:15year.
26:15You say, hey, he's going to take a step back.
26:17Because Devontae Adams is there.
26:18No, you just can't now roll your coverage and compound Nakua, and Adams will help that.
26:23With a guy, a quarterback in Stafford, rejuvenation, right?
26:26Your arm is still as strong as ever.
26:29Williams in the back, but one of the best in football.
26:31A really talented offensive line.
26:33But sometimes we get caught up in this where, hey, who's those hot teams heading into next
26:37year?
26:37And as we talked about the AFC West, it's like, boy, we like the Chargers.
26:41But I do think everybody loves the Rams.
26:44Now, the expectation, well, Don, you can love the Rams.
26:46They can still win 12 football games in the division and certainly maybe be the number
26:49one overall seed in the NFC.
26:51But sometimes, even me, being around the block so many times here, where I know that a hot
26:55team that comes out, hey, what's up with the Rams?
26:57You know, three and four to start the season, as opposed to, oh, I thought they would be six
27:00and one or seven and one.
27:02I really like the Rams.
27:03If we had to pick today, Donnie, who's going to win that division?
27:06I am still going to give that nod to the Rams, because I just like the expectations from last
27:11year really have ramped up into the season.
27:13And everybody understands this should be a Super Bowl caliber team.
27:17It just has to play out on the field.
27:19And if we just equate it to the San Francisco 49ers, why give the edge to the Rams?
27:23Less questions for me, Ben, with the Rams to be answered.
27:26I like the defense.
27:27I like the quarterback.
27:28The running back's healthy.
27:29Nakua is fantastic.
27:31He had a top-level wide receiver in Adams.
27:32Like, I don't have as lot of question marks here on the Rams.
27:35It's just a good football team hitting the ground in September.
27:39No doubt about it, DRS.
27:40And I think LA is that team, maybe more than most.
27:43We'll talk about the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers.
27:46Can they take that next step?
27:48But I think the Rams are that team.
27:50That is the hot team this offseason, where we expect, hey, not just 10 wins in a playoff spot,
27:55but could this team play for a Super Bowl in Santa Clara, by the way, at the home of the San Francisco 49ers this upcoming February?
28:03The Rams have not gotten off to great starts in either of the past two seasons, where they have ultimately won 10 games.
28:09Last year, started 1-4, then won 9 of their next 11 to clinch the division by the end of Week 17.
28:17Two years ago in 2023, 8-3-6 start.
28:21They won 7 of their final 8 to get the double-digit victories and earn a playoff spot.
28:27Matthew Stafford is back.
28:29You add Devontae Adams.
28:30Sure, Cooper Cup is gone, but Puka Nakua remains.
28:33And I think DRS, one of the main points of optimism for LA is how that young defense, especially up front,
28:40improved week by week in the tail end of last season and put that on full display in the playoffs as well.
28:48Defensive Rookie of the Year, Jared Verse, anchors that young core under Chris Shula that has only gotten better.
28:55Now, one of the reasons the NFC West is so interesting and is going to be incredibly competitive this year,
29:02you look at the win totals for Arizona, 8.5, even juice on both sides, minus 110 to the over and the under.
29:09And the Seahawks in year number two, under Mike McDonald, plus 550, longest to win the division.
29:15But the win total in the Northwest, DRS, is 7.5, and the over has the juice at minus 135.
29:21Enter Sammy D in Sam Darnold.
29:25The Seahawks were the only team to win 10 games last year.
29:28They ended up 10-7, the 15th team of 32 around the NFL to win 10 games, and the only one not to make the playoffs.
29:38Again, the four of this division, not all that far of a drop-off.
29:43No, it's not.
29:43And that Seattle defense isn't bad here.
29:45And also you got McDonald as the head coach, a defensive-minded guy.
29:48But now you bring in a quarterback that I do think is better than Geno Smith, or the upside, I should say, is better than Geno Smith.
29:53We always love the ground game for Seattle if they can stay healthy.
29:56But also, you had Valdez-Scantling.
29:58You might say, like, ah, that really hasn't moved the needle.
30:01He adds a component here of pure speed down the field, which allows Cooper Cup, if he can regain his form somewhat,
30:07to what we should see with the Rams, can sort of operate underneath.
30:10And then Smith and Jigba is an emerging dominant wide receiver in the NFL.
30:14It has the makings of a competitive team.
30:15And you're right.
30:16When you look at the West, the same thing we talk about so many, where's your layup games here?
30:20There are no layup games.
30:21You're going to get a good punch out of Seattle, a good punch out of Arizona, the Rams, and also the 49ers.
30:26I do think we're sleeping a little bit here on Seattle.
30:28But if you can get 75% of what we used to get out of Cooper Cup, why can't this offense move the football, right?
30:36No doubt about it.
30:37The Hawks were 4-2 in the division last year.
30:41One final point on the NFC West, the NFC North on the other side.
30:45Are we sleeping on Seattle, a place that is often sleepless?
30:49How about that?
30:50The Arizona Cardinals.
30:51Eight and a half a win total in year number three under Jonathan Gannon.
30:55And DRS, this is a team that has been pretty good under Gannon.
30:59Kyler Murray expected to take yet another step.
31:02Marvin Harrison Jr. came on strong later in his rookie campaign and has added some muscle this offseason.
31:09Always those lovely offseason highlights.
31:12Trey McBride, one of the best young and emerging tight ends in the NFL.
31:16And DRS, when you look at Arizona in the two years under Gannon so far, 20-14 against the spread.
31:23Fifth best cover team the last two seasons in the National Football League.
31:28Can they keep those games from being competitive and close to outright victories?
31:32And maybe be a playoff team around the NFC?
31:36Yeah, it could be.
31:36You never know.
31:37Like, the expansion of the teams that we think should be competitive is going to be fun to watch,
31:42specifically in the NFC West.
31:43If you take a look at the Arizona Cardinals, like, what is always the knock on them?
31:47Ah, Kyler Murray is just a little bit too small at this point.
31:49He's going to get injured, runs around too much, and he can't win like that on offense.
31:52But it is another year of Jonathan Gannon setting up that defense,
31:55and there is more talent there on a year-to-year basis.
31:58And it's one of those teams to watch and, you know, filming episodes here of pro, you know, football today.
32:03It's one guy on that desk that really likes the Arizona Cardinals here.
32:08And I'm not going to release who that actually is.
32:09You have to watch the programming coming up this week for that.
32:12But there are eyes on the prize for Arizona, and why not at this point?
32:15If you get elite quarterback play out of Kyler Murray, which you have in the past,
32:19and they've had some good starts here, just staying healthy and not being injured, why not?
32:25Like, there's a lot of why not teams.
32:26That's one of them here out in the West.
32:28You know, there was a couple of pieces for your Eagles after winning a Super Bowl
32:32along the front of that defensive line.
32:35Yeah.
32:36We knew that Philly probably could not retain just because of the price tag,
32:39one of them being Josh Sweat.
32:41After seven years with the Eagles, he is now with another birded team in the Cardinals.
32:46Provides a great boost up front.
32:48They drafted Walter Nolan out of Ole Miss as well.
32:52I like this Arizona team entering 2025.
32:55If I still had to pick a divisional champ, it would be the LA Rams.
32:58But I would not be surprised to see multiple, if not three, NFC West playoff teams
33:04by the time all is said and done.
33:07Could say the same thing, though, DRS, out of the NFC North
33:10that sent three teams to the postseason last year.
33:13All three teams won at least 11 games.
33:16The Lions the best, 15-2, winning the division.
33:20The Vikings the second best, 14 wins,
33:22although a lot of change this year in Minneapolis.
33:25The Packers won 11 games as well.
33:29In year number two, Caleb Williams,
33:31rookie head coach of the Windy City in Ben Johnson.
33:35You know, that's much like the NFC West.
33:37The NFC North is about to be stacked this season.
33:40What do you like in this division?
33:42Yeah, they're going to beat each other up, no doubt about it.
33:44And all eyes will be on Detroit once again.
33:47Unbelievably talented.
33:48It didn't work out in their favor last year.
33:49They were so injured on defense and Washington came on
33:52and just put it on them in that divisional round here.
33:55Smashed them.
33:56They go to the NFC Championship game
33:57and a lot to be left to be in their tank.
33:59Say, you know what?
34:00Why didn't Detroit,
34:00weren't they able to get over the hump?
34:02Well, also now, as you saw with the Philadelphia Eagles
34:04on a talented team that actually went to the Super Bowl
34:06and lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, Ben,
34:08they lost their offensive coordinator
34:09and defensive coordinator.
34:11And boy, that next season, they did get off hot,
34:13but it crashed and burned in the end
34:15because you just didn't have that stability
34:17on both offense and defense.
34:18Now you look at Detroit,
34:20it was like, you know what?
34:20We're built on grit.
34:21We're going to build this from the ground up.
34:23Ben Johnson was the best play caller in the NFL.
34:26He is no longer there.
34:27You also get the double whammy in that division.
34:29Now, you didn't lose Ben Johnson
34:31to the Indianapolis Colts.
34:33Won't see him for a while.
34:34You lost him to the Chicago Bears
34:35who are amped up with all the talent in the world,
34:38a franchise quarterback that just needs direction.
34:41And he's going to get that direction
34:43and much more here.
34:44That's fun to watch.
34:45The Minnesota Vikings breaking in a new quarterback,
34:47not necessarily a rookie,
34:48but just doesn't have any starts
34:49under his belt in J.J. McCarthy.
34:51The Green Bay Packers are always going to be there
34:53with Matt LaFleur,
34:54one of the best head coaches in the NFL.
34:56It just looks like it's one of those divisions
34:57where you say to yourself,
34:58and look at the price points, right?
34:59Detroit plus 155.
35:00The bottom feed is the Bears
35:02with all that talent at plus 550.
35:04And if you want to win a championship,
35:06we talk about the Buffalo Bills
35:07or the ease of schedule on some of these teams.
35:09Just get me that number one seed.
35:11I don't know.
35:12And it's not because the talent isn't there.
35:14Like the Bears, the Lions, the Packers,
35:15and the Vikings can ascend to a number one seed.
35:17Why?
35:18Because every single week in division, Ben,
35:21is going to be such a dogfight
35:22from start to finish all the way through.
35:25But the biggest question mark in this division
35:27is not what we're getting out of Ben Johnson
35:28for the Chicago Bears,
35:30not what I'm getting out of J.J. McCarthy.
35:32Can the Green Bay Packers respond
35:33if they're making the playoffs
35:34and losing to the Philadelphia Eagles?
35:36It's the Lions and Ben Johnson calling that
35:38because I used the term yesterday.
35:40It's sort of an analogy.
35:41Like you can have an F-16 fighter pilot, right?
35:43The best in the world
35:45and a great machine in an F-16.
35:47But take that great fighter pilot.
35:48You still have a great machine,
35:50but how does it maneuver?
35:51Like what do we see out of Detroit early?
35:53Same aggression?
35:54Is it the same old, same old?
35:55We don't have to worry.
35:56Or is it, boy, man,
35:57what's up with the play calling here?
35:59And that might be it.
36:01And Donnie, it's such a good point, right?
36:03Because if you look on paper,
36:05head coach is back
36:06and basically every single significant player
36:09on both sides of the football for Detroit
36:11back as well.
36:13What was the thing plaguing the Lions
36:14in that divisional round against the Commanders?
36:17A defense that was just absolutely depleted.
36:21Losing guys up front
36:22like we obviously knew
36:24with Aiden Hutchinson not there.
36:26Who's the big man up front
36:27that I'm blanking on?
36:28Aleem Ford?
36:29That's not right.
36:30Aleem, somebody help me out.
36:32Aleem McNeil, thank you,
36:33who is one of the best interior D linemen
36:35in all of football.
36:37Those guys are back.
36:38We should expect them to be healthy.
36:40So DRS, if there is not that large
36:42of a steep drop-off from coordinators,
36:44Ben Johnson now to John Morton offensively,
36:47who did work in Detroit under Ben Johnson
36:49in the turnaround under Dan Campbell
36:52and Kelvin Shepard,
36:53who was the linebackers coach under Aaron Glenn,
36:55now takes over the play calling duties
36:57as that DC.
36:59If there is not that large of a steep drop-off,
37:03I should say,
37:04the Lions are going to be back.
37:05But that's a large if to figure out.
37:08In fact, I think there's questions
37:10around all four teams in this division.
37:12Not on the Packers getting to the playoffs
37:14as a 10, 11, or 12-win football team,
37:17but do they have enough
37:18to truly be a conference contender?
37:20The oddsmakers believe so.
37:22What is Minnesota going to look like?
37:24You said J.J. McCarthy, not a rookie.
37:26Technically correct,
37:28but of course he was injured
37:29in his first ever preseason game.
37:31Wasn't even healthy last year.
37:33It is his de facto rookie campaign.
37:36How much of a drop-off can we expect
37:39from a 14-win Minnesota team
37:41to this season
37:42where the win total is eight and a half
37:45and the over has the juice?
37:47And the Bears, man,
37:48a lot of promise,
37:49a lot of hope,
37:51and a lot of expectation.
37:52We'll continue going around the NFC North
37:55on the other side of the break.
37:57Who do we expect to live up to the expectation
37:59or maybe even exceed it?
38:01That's next on The Early Line.
38:03Live right here on The Early Line
38:05on Sports Grid,
38:06we go division by division.
38:08And right now, DRS,
38:09in my estimation,
38:10we ask the question each and every summer,
38:11each and every offseason.
38:13What is the hardest division in football?
38:15What is the most competitive division in football?
38:17What is the best division in football?
38:19My answer to that question in 2025
38:21is the NFC North.
38:24It is going to be a gauntlet
38:25for these teams beating up on one another.
38:27And I think it's a division, DRS,
38:29where you could make a case
38:30for any of these four teams
38:32to be a playoff team
38:33and a couple of the teams at the top,
38:35perhaps,
38:36if you're going to win the division,
38:37to be that true Super Bowl contender.
38:39The Lions have the second best price
38:41to win the NFC,
38:42only behind the Philadelphia Eagles.
38:44When you call it
38:45the most competitive division
38:47in the National Football League,
38:49you better have some stats to back it up.
38:51Donnie,
38:51I think one of the indications is
38:53seeing all four teams in this division
38:55have four of the ten hardest schedules
38:58around the NFL this year
39:01because they're all playing each other
39:03and there will be no easy weeks
39:04within the NFC North.
39:06Yeah,
39:07no easy way out there
39:08is how you want to look at it, too.
39:09And also,
39:10you're right about that.
39:10And that's sometimes
39:11when we talk about the Super Bowl odds
39:13or who you want to take.
39:13It's like,
39:14oh,
39:14I think this team should be priced
39:15a little bit higher.
39:16Well,
39:16if they beat each other up
39:17and you say,
39:17all right,
39:18man,
39:18boy,
39:18we struggled just to get ten wins,
39:20that means your path in the playoffs
39:22is going to be much harder.
39:22Not because you're not a good football team.
39:24It's just that you don't have
39:24the standings.
39:25It'll be a one-two
39:26or let's just say
39:26a three-seat at that point.
39:28Somebody has to win the division.
39:29Somebody's going to get a home game.
39:31I think the most intriguing team
39:32in this division,
39:33to be honest,
39:34is the Green Bay Packers
39:35because I just think we think of them
39:36as like an afterthought,
39:37which isn't fair.
39:38They're a playoff team.
39:39One of the better head coaches
39:40in the NFL.
39:41You get golden out of Texas here
39:42as a wide receiver
39:43to go with Reed and Dobbs,
39:44like interchangeable parts
39:46at the wide receiver position.
39:47Josh Jacobs
39:48was phenomenal last year.
39:50I like a lot of pieces
39:51on their defense,
39:52but they sort of get overshadowed
39:53where the funness
39:54of the Chicago Bears,
39:55the Detroit Lions,
39:56we know are already a good team
39:57and everyone wants to pay attention
39:58and say,
39:59oh, well,
39:59let's just see what Minnesota
40:00is going to do
40:00with J.J. McCarthy.
40:02I just think they're a known commodity
40:03in Green Bay
40:04that we do overlook
40:05with the chance to be high level
40:06because you saw them last year.
40:08They fought the Eagles
40:09in game number one in Brazil.
40:11They fought the Eagles
40:12in the playoffs.
40:13The Eagles are just a better team
40:14and they were on the road
40:14at that point here,
40:15but there is talent on Green Bay
40:17and a very good coaching staff
40:19that I think sometimes
40:20we look at this division, Ben,
40:21and just overlook the Packers
40:22as if, again,
40:23the fun team in the Bears,
40:25the established team
40:26in the Lions,
40:26and yeah,
40:27we'll see what we get
40:27out of the Green Bay Packers,
40:28but that's a really good football team.
40:31Yeah, no doubt about it, DRS.
40:32I think if there was a team
40:34that I expected a drop-off,
40:36I'm a little bit hesitant
40:38on the Vikings
40:38to buy into the idea
40:40that the win total
40:41is eight and a half
40:41and the juice
40:42is on the over
40:43in a pretty hefty amount
40:44at minus 150.
40:46In fact, the Vikes
40:47at 10 to 1,
40:48a slightly better price
40:49than even Green Bay
40:51at 11 to 1
40:52to win the NFC championship.
40:55The Vikings have a lot
40:56of belief in J.J. McCarthy,
40:57but for me,
40:58when he was drafted
40:5910th overall
41:00two Aprils ago now
41:02in the 2024 NFL draft,
41:04there was a lot of production
41:05that wasn't necessarily
41:07a part of the projection.
41:09Winning ways at Michigan?
41:11No doubt.
41:12In terms of lighting it up
41:13statistically,
41:14where I think that skill set
41:15translates to the
41:17National Football League,
41:18I am hesitant.
41:20If you wanted an offense,
41:21though, to throw to
41:23Justin Jefferson,
41:24Jordan Addison,
41:25T.J. Hawkinson,
41:26Aaron Jones,
41:27all back as well,
41:28still coordinated
41:29by Kevin O'Connell.
41:30It is a great situation
41:32to find yourself
41:33a part of.
41:34And I love this defense
41:35for the Vikings
41:35under Brian Flores
41:36that I don't think
41:37gets enough credit.
41:38And they were an absolute
41:39turnover machine last year
41:41taking the ball away
41:43numerous,
41:44numerous times
41:44leading to all those
41:45fun celebrations
41:46and dances.
41:48The RS Green Bay
41:49has some questions
41:50to answer in terms
41:50of winning playoff games
41:52with Jordan Love
41:53and being a true
41:53conference contender.
41:55Pulled the upset
41:55over the Cowboys
41:56two years ago.
41:57We're thought of
41:58as a team,
42:00of course,
42:00that could challenge
42:01the Eagles
42:01in the NFC postseason.
42:04Didn't look
42:04all that great.
42:06I still think
42:07the Lions win this division.
42:09And maybe I'm dumb,
42:10man,
42:10but I can't give up.
42:12I can't quit
42:13on the Chicago Bears
42:14who I think
42:15built things up
42:16along the trenches
42:17this offseason.
42:18They solidified
42:19that O-line.
42:21You bring in
42:21Joe Tooney.
42:22You bring in
42:23Jonah Jackson
42:24as well.
42:25Drew Dahlman
42:26to be that center.
42:27On the other side,
42:28you add Grady Jarrett
42:29from the Atlanta Falcons.
42:30If they can protect
42:31Caleb Williams
42:32under Ben Johnson
42:34and how that offense goes,
42:36I think the Bears
42:37might be the surprise.
42:39I say that in air quotes
42:40team if you want
42:40to call it that.
42:41Eight and a half
42:42is the win total.
42:43The under has the juice.
42:44I think the Chicago Bears
42:46are making the playoffs
42:46this year.
42:48That's my fun team,
42:49right?
42:49Sometimes you take a look
42:50at a team that's up
42:51and coming and say,
42:51what can we get out of them?
42:52We just saw a quarterback
42:54who people were thinking
42:55of tanking their entire
42:56franchise to get.
42:57And then once you get
42:58in the building,
42:59you give them a defensive
43:00coordinator as a head coach
43:01and say,
43:01there's a TV,
43:02there's a tape recorder,
43:03go watch some film
43:04and hopefully get
43:05something out of it.
43:06You now have the
43:06premier play caller
43:08that is going to be
43:08honing his skills
43:09with Ben Johnson
43:10being the quarterback
43:11coach slash offensive
43:12coordinator and head coach
43:14here.
43:14This team should move.
43:15Here's what I want to say.
43:16That aggressiveness
43:17in Detroit.
43:17If he brings us
43:18to Chicago,
43:19team totals will be fun
43:21in the Windy City.
43:22Yes, they will.
43:24Hour number three next.
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