- 7/7/2025
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00:00a football state of mind in this month of july that of course as we well know is a football month
00:06here on the early line we have an nfl game albeit pre-season in the hall of fame game
00:12at the end of this month on saturday yeah just five days away our first players report to training
00:19camp the rookies of the la chargers who of course were a playoff team and jim harbaugh's first year
00:25and that's kind of our theme early this week drs looking at what we have around the national
00:31football league playoff teams from a season ago the seven in each conference the 14 in total
00:38and if they can be back in the postseason in 2025 we start with our seven seeds and we start in the
00:46afc a team we did not anticipate being a playoff team a season ago that was the denver broncos with
00:53a rookie quarterback in bo nix in the second year at altitude under head coach sean payton and yet
00:59drs double digit wins a 10 and 7 record for denver despite having a win total of five and a half at
01:06this stage last offseason they did they get hammered in western new york against the bills as they were
01:12expected to as nearly a touchdown underdog yeah they lost 31 to 7 but did they get to the playoffs
01:18when nobody really expected that to be the case yes they certainly did win total for denver this
01:25upcoming season nine and a half some slight juice on the under third best price to win the afc west
01:31a 14 to 1 price to win the afc 28 to 1 to win a super bowl and drs maybe most importantly that minus
01:40112 price or so for denver to get back to the afc playoffs it is the seventh best price around the
01:47conference that number of seven important as denver will tell you as the seven seed our seventh and
01:53final and our third and final wild card team to see the postseason last year in the afc
01:59yeah i like the prognosis here for the denver broncos because the maturation process if your
02:04quarterback should continue got a fantastic head coach in sean pate we understand that and also bo nix
02:09as a rookie through 29 touchdown passes up against only 12 interceptions usually might see a rookie
02:14quarterback throw a lot of touchdown passes but a lot of interceptions trying to learn his craft
02:18and you know early on they wanted bo nix to win that job and he won that job and while he's playing
02:23in the regular season you're going to have those mistakes early but he really had a solid season
02:27with a passer rating of a 93 almost threw for 4 000 yards ended up with about 337 50 if i remember
02:34here if we're looking at the defense they got good pass rushers they might have the best cornerback in
02:38football and patrick sertan the second you also add some weapons on offense with evan ingram to a
02:43solid offensive line you picked up some speed in the draft at the running back position and the
02:48maturation process as i talked about here for bo nix should continue and sutton and vele are quality
02:53wide receivers the only downfall might be is i don't think you get an easy victory over the las
02:58vegas raiders anymore they're more competent this year coming in of the tom brady led you get a new
03:02head coach in p carroll obviously have a veteran quarterback in geno smith you're not trying
03:06out rookie quarterbacks on a week-to-week basis but also you take a look at the la chargers very
03:11good team looking to buy and then there's the kansas city chiefs so it's a very competitive
03:15conference where i don't know if you can lay out and say they absolutely have to get their team total
03:20they must get 10 wins at this point and not have a successful season most teams are judged on successful
03:25season making the playoffs a playoff win see if you can compete for a championship but i am high on the
03:31denver broncos but i just don't know how high ben that ceiling is supposed to be could you see a
03:35down step here for patrick or excuse me bo nicks at the quarterback position maybe but i'm not
03:40anticipating a solid season for me for the denver broncos is once again just you know what being in
03:46the playoff mix which doesn't mean you enter into december two games back i mean like the final week
03:51of the season win and get in you have it done you lose there you learn a little bit more that's what
03:56i'm talking about for the broncos yeah completely agree drs i expect denver to flirt with 10 wins again
04:03i expect denver to flirt with playoff contention but we know the afc is competitive and who is one
04:10team that finished above 500 but missed out on the postseason that has a higher outlook than that of
04:15denver this year it would be the cincinnati bangles we'll talk about the steelers and their expectations
04:20under aaron rogers as we have a few times because of course pittsburgh was a playoff team last year and
04:27not thought of as maybe a playoff team this time around but i think the broncos got better this
04:33offseason they drafted rj harvey the great running back from ucf they could not run the football really
04:39all that effectively last year jk dobbins is now in denver as well you add a couple of good wide
04:45receivers in the draft bo nicks's best friend and his former teammate at oregon troy franklin a speedster
04:51and a downfield threat pat bryant who was great at illinois and a really stout defense last year drs
04:58we would expect to do much of the same they add in jade baron who was their first round pick the
05:04thorpe award winner for the best db in college football last year to player with the defensive
05:09player of the year and patrick sertan the second from a season ago again a lot of that rides on bo nicks
05:15as drs said 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in most of those ints thrown in his first two
05:22career starts and early on certainly in a great situation under sean payton let's go to the seventh
05:29seed in the nfc that being the green bay packers an 11-win team a season ago lost in the wild card
05:37round 22 to 10 did not really look all that competitive drs in that opening round game in
05:42philadelphia and yet green bay thought of not just as a playoff team but a true contender around the
05:49nfc at 10 to 1 and a team that can certainly rival the detroit lions within the division because of all
05:55the changeover we have seen in the coaching staff for the lions entering 2025 there was a team last year
06:02the packers that were looked at very favorably to elevate that ceiling after the playoff win over
06:08the cowboys on the road the year prior expected to elevate that ceiling not just to be a playoff team
06:14but make a deep postseason run in the nfc in 2025 why not just got to stay healthy at this point the
06:21defense look i don't love the defense but it is above average and that's something there to be said
06:25about some of these other teams that we're all going to talk about but understand this the offensive
06:29line is decent here for green bay but i love the head coach like matt lafour has been there done that
06:33he's had a lot of success in the regular season got a lot of teams into the playoffs and if you're
06:37looking for an upgrade here here's what it's going to be josh jacobs just stay healthy i mean
06:41what an engine last year what a phenomenal pickup there in the backfield you take a look at jordan
06:46love it's up to him to take that next step just got married here heading off into life now with a
06:50partner you take a look at dobbs reed and golden golden a draft pick here adding that extra speed
06:55we always talk about the like that lineup per se right at the wide receiver position can somebody just
07:01separate themselves and even if they can't there's a lot of speed and a lot of opportunity to use that
07:05pseudo west coast offense for a lot of those pieces that fit together here i like the green
07:09bay packers to win a championship maybe not really good season they'll be in the playoffs again though
07:14our playoff profiles continue all week long around the national football league teams that reached
07:21the postseason a year ago and hoping for the same in 2025 if not even a higher ceiling and i think that
07:28is a fair conversation drs in title town usa that being the green bay packers jordan love at times
07:35injured and inconsistent a season ago of course needs to elevate his game if the packers as a whole
07:42want to be elevated into a true contender 11 wins a season ago a playoff team the seventh seed in the nfc
07:50and a minus 112 price to get back to the postseason sixth best around the nfc the vikings by the way
07:57minus 106 the seventh and final team in slight minus money to see the postseason jordan love should
08:03be very happy this offseason the packers for the first time in more than two decades since 2002
08:09drafted a receiver in round number one of the nfl draft in front of the hometown crowd back in april
08:16the speedster from texas via houston that being matthew golden what can we anticipate drs out of
08:24year number three truly as a full-time starter in jordan love and what that will mean for green bay
08:30this year and beyond solid performance that's what you're hoping for right and also understand this
08:35you take a look at his 2023 season statistics 4100 yards 32 touchdown passes 11 interceptions a 96.1
08:43rating he said what happened played in all the games last year wasn't injured but only 3389 yards
08:48and 25 touchdown passes to 11 interceptions almost an identical passer rating what happens was josh
08:54jacobs came to town he said you know what this guy's going to be a catalyst maybe i don't have to throw
08:57so many times in all of these game situations where my running back can handle that and i love that
09:03and now you upgrade with some speed if christian watson can stay healthy the whole year matthew golden the
09:08rest of those smurfs like to call that wide receiver why can't we have a dynamic offense because i love
09:12matt lafleur great play caller you know we're not going through a new system with different play
09:16callers and jargon on a year-to-year basis this is jordan love joined the packers in 2021 2022
09:21limited sparring you know out there on a start or two and then you saw the full season in 2023 and
09:27we liked what he saw it also 2024 making the playoffs not his fault you go on the road you had to play the
09:32fill it up the eagles oh i couldn't come away with a victory they won the super bowl championship
09:36you're just looking now to say okay let's have a season where you get a home playoff games and see if
09:40we can sort of use that to our advantage of playing lambo in the freezing cold in the dead
09:45of winter i like this green bay packers team in love with them no but this is a playoff team by far
09:50they just need to stay healthy it's a lot of good things on a week-to-week basis i would like to bet
09:54with them because i do think they're going to be talent across the board with a legitimate chance
09:58for jordan love to throw 30 touchdown passes this year with the added weaponry as long as it stays
10:03healthy in drs i think the only concern around jordan love was what we saw in that wild card round
10:09game in philadelphia no touchdowns three int sloppy with the football which was very different than
10:16the jordan love we saw in his playoff debut in dallas in the wild card round in 2023 pulling off
10:22that upset the packers did is nearly a touchdown underdog 272 three touchdowns without a single pick
10:29for jordan love the year prior did throw two interceptions against the 49ers in that second round
10:35divisional game again that's kind of the question right when it's one performance even if it's the
10:42postseason we start to think of it as a more significant stage incorrectly so uh-oh are the
10:47packers really going to be able to win games that they need to when it matters most in the postseason
10:52with jordan love i would say they're okay now matthew golden a first round pick at the wide receiver spot
10:58is he that true number one or an additional piece to a lot of depth in the wide receiver room
11:04that will remain to be seen i will say this not only josh jacobs of course a great first season in
11:12green bay but a defense under jeff halfley that was a lot better as well for the first time
11:17under matt lafleur it was the first time the rs green bay ranked top 10 in both scoring and total
11:23defense points allowed yardage allowed they had been top 10 in one of those two key categories but
11:29not top 10 in both the defense a ton better in 2024 all right now let's get to our six seeds in playoff
11:38conversation we go back to the afc it's been a team drs we have studied and discussed a ton this off
11:46season that would be aaron rogers in the pittsburgh steelers a 10 win record a year ago a playoff spot for
11:53the fourth time in five years but this time even with the addition of aaron rogers in the trades
12:00that the steelers have made including most recently acquiring jalen ramsey and johnny smith plus 140 the
12:07price on the steelers to see the postseason i feel that we both stand in the same point that we expect
12:13pittsburgh to be a winning football team heck maybe even get the 10 wins or a playoff spot but will they
12:20finally earn a playoff win that is the question for the first time since 2016 it will be the question
12:27that drs and i continue to break down on the other side of the break here on the early line
12:32our playoff profiles around the nfl last year's postseason teams in the national football league
12:39are seven from the afc are seven from the nfc and if they will get back to that very significant stage
12:46being a playoff appearance in 2025 one of the teams that made it last year drs ended up being the
12:53sixth seed in the afc despite dropping the final four games of the regular season to end up in a wild
12:59card spot that would be the pittsburgh steelers and of course they have been maybe the team of the
13:04offseason the acquisition of aaron rogers the blockbuster trade a few weeks ago acquiring jalen ramsey
13:10and johnny smith from the miami dolphins earlier in the offseason the big trade for dk metcalf all of
13:17these moves that pittsburgh has made to try to win this year and not that that's not just having a
13:24winning record for the 19th consecutive year under mike tomlin or winning enough games to earn a playoff
13:29spot it is making noise in the postseason something that has not happened in the steel city since 2016 it
13:36was the last time that pittsburgh won a playoff game it was the last time that pittsburgh reached
13:41the afc championship game and donny we have talked often about the steelers this year on a special pft
13:49show that aired a ton throughout fourth of july weekend i swear i caught a segment that you guys
13:54do on pro football today called sell me something a plus money price that you can make a convincing case
14:00maybe a longer shot to bet and that for you guys was a postseason number and you had something on
14:06the pittsburgh steelers can you let the early line audience know what that was i i don't think i had
14:13that i had the uh dallas cowboys getting knocked off in the wild card round as myself and i knew it was
14:18one of the teams that failed in the postseason yeah we were close we were close you could probably
14:22add that as well because to be honest it does line up similar to the dallas cowboys there's talent
14:28the dallas cowboys enough to get to the playoffs they're not winning a wild card game and i feel
14:31the same way about the pittsburgh steelers because i don't think they're going to get the number one
14:35seed which means ben they will be in the wild card round probably on the road because i don't think
14:40they're going to win the division so you can probably line up similar stats here from the
14:44dallas cowboys as a perfect correlation to the pittsburgh steelers because for me if we segue into the
14:49steelers that defensive line is going to be absolutely filthy as long as tj watch shows up you spend your
14:54first round draft pick on the big defensive tackle out of oregon which gives him high smith
14:57harman hayward and watt on that front line you make a move for ranzi you can't have enough quality
15:03cornerbacks here he had a solid season for miami probably going to be reinvigorated being in a new
15:07city outside of miami you have slay as the veteran quarterback on one side and porter jr yes she gave
15:13up a talented safety but safeties aren't nearly as important as cornerbacks here aaron rogers as long
15:19as he can stay upright ben that's the key right there because the offensive line isn't great it's up to
15:25arthur smith to say you know what maybe a little bit less on the routes out there an extra blocker
15:29or two to give aaron rogers a chance in the pocket but this team you want to talk about a disappointment
15:34if this is the season that mike tomlin finishes under 500 it all must go from general manager to head
15:42coach to quarterback and just restart here in pittsburgh i think the quarterback will go regardless
15:49of how successful the season is in pittsburgh at least that was the indication from aaron rogers
15:56but maybe drs the reason i got confused is because on certain sports books you can bet stage of
16:02elimination and you look at the cowboys whose win total not nearly as optimistic as the pittsburgh
16:08steelers actually i think both are seven and a half but the juice on the over now for both the cowboys
16:14and the steelers who we often have described as having regular season success despite not having
16:20the postseason success that both franchises expect in crave the dallas cowboys to be ousted in the
16:28wild card round a plus 470 price the pittsburgh steelers to be ousted in the wild card round
16:34a plus 360 number and donnie i would not be surprised if that is the case the steelers win 10 games the
16:41steelers make the playoffs with aaron rogers and they lose in that first game they have not just
16:46lost every playoff game they have played since 2016 they have also been a hefty underdog anticipated to
16:54lose basically all of them as well plus 360 that price again on pittsburgh to reach the postseason
17:01but lose in the wild card round around a plus 140 number on the steelers to reach the postseason all
17:09we have spent so much time talking about the pittsburgh steelers throughout this nfl offseason
17:15let's now move it forward to the washington commanders the sixth seed last year in the nfc
17:21a 12 win football team that did capitalize on a historic season in land over maryland with historic
17:29performances in the playoffs as well of course the rs the commander is getting to the nfc championship game
17:36for the first time since 1991 more than three decades and in their first year under dan quinn
17:44with jayden daniels the rookie quarterback they get to that nfc title game board did they get hammered
17:49by their divisional foes of the philadelphia eagles but getting to that stage there can only be optimism
17:55entering 2025 for daniels and the commanders but when there is optimism there also is an added
18:02expectation can the commanders get back to that stage once again and continue to improve on a
18:09sensational rookie year for jayden daniels to me that is the main narrative around this washington
18:13team entering 2025 and it feels like it is all on jayden daniels had an unbelievably sensational rookie
18:20season which culminated in a monster playoff victory over the detroit lions just to get themselves
18:25into a chance to get to a super bowl which they faltered against the philadelphia eagles it's a tough
18:29spot man he was a good team the eagles were at home they got laid to waste there you sort of learn
18:33nobody thought at the beginning of the season the commanders would be playing for an nfc championship
18:37but now things change and the stakes are higher you still have your offensive coordinator coming
18:41back in cliff kingsbury that was key we thought maybe he'd move on with a legitimate chance to be
18:45another you know head coaching job in the nfl he stays dan quinn one of the better head coaches
18:50they're just sort of calming influence and he'll get that defense right the defense doesn't have a ton
18:54of talent to me like bobby wagner's age he was great last year will he be great again this year
18:58the defensive line took some hits with some moves that they made the you know the cornerback position
19:03marshawn latimore 86th ranked quarter cornerback last year one of those veteran guys you bring over
19:08he didn't work out all that well but the offense should move the question is is terry mclaurin going
19:12to be happy and how quickly will he be in camp because he's holding out for a new deal debo samuel
19:16comes over a lot of question marks did he lose his fastball in san francisco maybe just a change
19:21of senior in a new play caller where it's like wait a second well you didn't go from a bad play call
19:25he probably went from the best play caller in the nfl over the past decade in kyle shanahan
19:29to a good play caller and we'll see if they use him correctly i like the offense from washington
19:34but i always point out like just because you had a great rookie season the expectations is you will
19:39continue that great sophomore season which isn't always the case what's the ceiling for washington
19:44could they win the nfc east yes but i do feel like they're going to be battling for second place
19:49here in the nfc east with the dallas cowboys almost neck and neck the entire way the expectations for me of a
19:55successful season usually are well what did you do last year oh we made the nfc championship game
19:59you better get at least back there i don't know if that's the case here a successful season to me
20:03in washington is gaden daniels continues to look good and is healthy and they make a playoff run i'm
20:09just on that that playoff run is going to get as far as the nfc championship game maybe a little bit
20:13more of a lightning in a bottle type season where we didn't expect it now people are expecting it and
20:18we'll see if they can deliver pulled the upset over the buccaneers of course the big upset against
20:24the banged up detroit lions in the division around on the road in the motor city but for what jaden
20:29daniels was able to accomplish during his rookie season basically ran away with nfl offensive rookie
20:35of the year by week six or seven to then stack up those numbers in his first ever postseason and win
20:41those games outright on the road the future incredibly bright you see it there more than 3 500 passing
20:47yards a rookie record in terms of rushing yards at 891 for a quarterback surpassing robert griffin the
20:55third another quarterback who did that for the washington franchise just the fourth ever quarterback
21:00in nfl history drs to have at least 3 500 passing yards in 800 yards on the ground joining kyler murray
21:08who did so back in 2020 and lamar jackson who has done so each of the previous two seasons
21:13as well 25 tds to nine interceptions if the commanders are not a playoff team that will be a
21:20dismal disappointment this season if the commanders don't get to the division around or back to the
21:26conference title game donnie i will not be surprised and i don't think i will be like ah man that's a bad
21:32year now for the commanders i don't think it will change my outlook on washington in that sort of fashion
21:39the commander is expected to be back in the postseason and that is a great step we'll talk
21:45more around these nfl playoff profiles on the other side of the break here on tel
21:49so of the playoff profile teams we looked at around the nfl are six and seven seeds last year in both
21:58the afc and in the nfc as we look at those four teams the rs and what their odds are to reach the
22:05postseason once again three of the four we highlighted the six and seven seed in the nfc
22:10the commanders and the packers and the seventh seed last year in the afc the broncos all are favored
22:17as of this moment to reach the postseason once again minus 130 on washington minus 114 on denver
22:24minus 112 on green bay the only team that is not favored with a minus money price to see the playoffs
22:32again that would be the pittsburgh steelers at plus 140 those are where the odds stack up as of this
22:39moment yeah and if i look at those four too let's play a game like the odd man out for me and if i go
22:45down this list and take a look at the commanders minus 130 price i do think they're a quality football
22:50team jaden daniels is a good quarterback they'll be right in the mix to make the playoffs i don't mind
22:53taking that bet at a minus 130 i take a look down let's go the opposite end of it the pittsburgh
22:58seals at a plus 140 price mike tomlin with worse quarterbacking and worse team situations has always
23:03been above 500 which means you'll be in the playoff mix at a plus money price i don't mind taking the
23:08pittsburgh steelers at a plus 140 talked about the green bay packers at a minus 112 price to make the
23:13playoffs here i'm high on the green bay packers to win a championship no but to be in the playoffs
23:17again absolutely it would be the broncos for me ben at a minus 114 price i'm not saying like i don't
23:22like the broncos ending into the season but i just get that team in that division and if we don't get
23:28bo nicks let's just say playing better football than he did last year i think that might even out
23:33for them we're not saying they can't make the playoffs would be above 500 they're going to be
23:36a quality team this year not going to be run over unless outside of ridiculously devastating injuries
23:41but if i had to pick one team who possibly wouldn't make the playoffs out of that list i'd probably go
23:46broncos at the minus 114 price as them not making the playoffs i would agree with udrs it might seem
23:52a little bit surprising to look at a pittsburgh steelers team that we have often said aaron rogers
23:57doesn't really move the needle but what is really of course that for pittsburgh is winning a playoff
24:04game to get to the postseason quarterbacks with the names of trubisky and rudolph have done that
24:09in pittsburgh so the idea that rogers even at 41 and in year number 21 could do the same
24:15not overly or utterly surprising i would say of the teams most likely to miss the postseason on
24:21that graphic again i think the denver broncos are that side donnie there will be one team in the afc
24:28that can really kind of change the perspective of a few of these wildcard teams more than most
24:33and i think that is joe burrow in the bangles even with a dismal defense last year since he still was
24:40nine and eight and despite starting oh and three gave themselves a chance in the final month albeit
24:47a very long shot if the bangles do not start oh and three if their defense can side sign trey
24:54hendrickson and the rookie shamar stewart and al golden can call some solid plays and they're even
25:00average or slightly above without a doubt i think the bangles are a playoff team and not just a
25:06postseason team but maybe a true contender in the afc to rival the big three that would be buffalo
25:12baltimore and kansas city at this moment the bangles are the team to me in the afc that can
25:18really kind of shake up the playoff picture as it stands right here right now before we even discuss
25:24the idea of teams that might be a surprise as we always have it each and every season it doesn't feel
25:30like there's any middle ground with the cincinnati bangles heading into this year because the one thing
25:34we do know is joe burrow is going to take a lot of sacks i don't like that offensive line all that
25:37much that's usually like the linchpin of your season you got to keep joe burrow upright and
25:42healthy but also understand this like we do knock that defense as it was bad and they lost some players
25:47but it's almost like well you lost players from a bad defense does it actually matter maybe some of
25:52the younger guys coming in i know you got demetrius knight there from south carolina to step in maybe
25:56at the linebacker position to add some depth there you also have a new defensive coordinator so maybe just
26:00the philosophy change ups the tempo but it feels like to me ben this is either going to be when
26:05like a five win football team or a 12 win football team with nothing in between at this point because
26:11the town on offense is there but if you're not getting stops and your quarterback is getting
26:15sacked we know the injuries can pile up because trust me on this like just about any team out there
26:20loses their starting quarterback for two to three weeks in a time it's over for the bangles they won't
26:24be able to recover from that but what we're hoping for is lightning in a bottle hendrickson comes back
26:29steward is signed you have a decent little pass rush the offense moves the football and you're
26:33right ben you don't start the season oh and three maybe you make it out of september with a three on
26:38one record and you say all right we usually start bad now we didn't now the advantage is towards us
26:43but it feels like there's no middle ground for me this isn't a seven or eight win football team
26:48it's either five or over double digits and when you look at the bangles price drs it is 21 to 1 to win
26:55a super bowl it is tied for the ninth best number inside the top 10 alongside the minnesota vikings
27:01again if the bangles cannot start at least oh and two last year was oh and three they have started oh
27:07and two each of the last three years and still when joe burrow has been healthy we're a playoff team
27:13that reached the afc championship in 2022 and nearly a playoff team with an oh and three start
27:19in 2024 that would be such a better spot for the bangles to be in it doesn't take a genius to
27:26understand that not starting oh and three and maybe being three and one is a better start everybody in
27:32the afc north is going to play a competitive schedule one of the benefits of being nine and
27:37eight and not in first place in a division from the year prior is that you get a slightly easier
27:43slate than the ravens or the steelers in front of you entering the upcoming season in fact
27:49bangles have the easiest schedule it's not easy it's still bottom half hardest in the nfl but the
27:54easiest of the four teams around the afc north again there are always surprises each and every year
28:01teams that regress in a positive way we can look at the bangles in the afc when you look at those
28:06super bowl odds a team that won six games last year drs in the 49ers has one of the best prices to
28:13win a super bowl out of the nfc could the bears finally do something will the vikings drop off
28:18with jj mccarthy in his de facto rookie year there's a lot of changes that we could see with
28:23in the nfc playoff picture as well yeah a lot of fun i can't wait to watch it play out because i do
28:29want to get some of that information that comes out of training camp how these teams are looking here
28:32who's high who's not showing up to training camp at this point injuries will happen we're going to
28:36hate that in the preseason before the nfl season gets underway but if you are looking for this team
28:41like i'm not really high on the vikings to be honest like usually a rookie quarterback will burn your
28:46money here now it's not a true rookie quarterback because technically he's been in the system and
28:50it's been a pro for over a year but sam darnold say what you want outside of those final two weeks
28:55of the season that guy was heating up in the pocket and cooking out there for kevin o'connell
29:01can we see the same thing from jj mccarthy we'll find out it's a good situation to be in but i have many
29:08questions
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